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Black carbon…………

Anumita Roychowdhury

South Asian Media Briefing Workshop on Climate Change, 2013

Centre for Science and Environment

September 18-19, 2013, New Delhi Haze over the Ganges Delta, NASA

Delhi winter smog, 2012

February 2013:Global Burden of Disease findings for India: 620,000 premature deaths a year.

More than 18 million healthy life years lost due to air pollution. Air pollution triggers stroke, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, cancer…..

Air pollution is the 5th largest killer in India…….

Multiple risk – from ill health to….

50% of cities monitored are critically polluted for PM10

…… But 60% of people in monitored cities live in areas with critical PM10 levels

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PM vs BC?

Particulate Matter

• All combustion processes

• All dust generating activities

• Secondary particulates –Nitrates and sulfate

• The condensation of gases into liquid droplets

Black Carbon

• Part of PM2.5………

• Low temperature combustion of carbonaceous fuels

• Incomplete combustion….

• Examples: open fires, cook stoves, primitive industrial sources, and diesel engines

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What are those other effects?

Direct effect -- Black carbon absorbs radiative heat from the sun and warms everything around it……UNEP 2011– Reducing short term forcers is likely to slow down the rate of global warming over the next two to four decades -- Long lived CO2 is steadily pushing up global temperature but short lived climate forcers accelerate short spikes…..

Indirect effect - Black carbon interacts with clouds and affects rainfall patterns

Albedo effect -- Black carbon falls onto snow and ice and changes the overall reflectivity of those surfaces, accelerate melting, -- exposes the darker ground or water, causing even faster warming…..

Warming also enhance local public health impacts …Each increase of 1 degree Celsius caused by carbon dioxide, can enhance PM and ozone build up. This can lead to thousands of additional deaths and many more illness. (Mark Jacobson 2008)

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More potent than CO2…………..Global warming potential of short lived gases

GWP: One kg of black carbon is 460 times more potent over 100 years time frame and 1600 times more potent over 20 years time horizon…. Difficult comparison.

GTP: Scientists looking at other matrix …. Global Temperature Change potential – effect of one pulse of emissions vs another in a given year…

Global Warming Potentials (GWP) drawn from the IPCC 4th Assessment Report

Note: The methodology used for black carbon was also used for organic carbon and sulphur oxides. Values for black carbon, organic carbon, and sulphur oxides were not published by the IPCC and are not official estimates. Source: ICCT

111100-500+

Carbon dioxide

-21-69-240Organic carbon

-12 -40- 140Sulphuroxides

153298289114Nitrous oxide

7.6257212Methane

1404601600Minutes to a week

Black carbon

GWP500GWP100GWP20Lifetime Year)

Pollutants

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Global CO2 Concentrations

Global PM2.5 Concentrations

Global concentration of CO2 vsGlobal concentration of PM2.5

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From Asian Brown Cloud to Atmospheric Brown Cloud (ABC) -- More plumes traced……

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Some cool and some warm…..

Global Radiative Forcing Since the Industrial Revolution: Mix of cooling and warming PM varies in different sources

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This science influence the position of regionsregion-wise quantum of aeorsols and their

sources

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Gross annual BC emission by region and sector: Region of NorthAmerica excludes Mexico while Pacific region includes Japan. Efforts Efforts Emphasize Air Quality CoEmphasize Air Quality Co--BenefitsBenefits

Net annual BC inventory by region and sector: BC inventory is offset by corresponding OC inventory.

`Bounding the role of black carbon`Report 2013: Residential solid fuels -- 60 to 80% of Asian and African emissions; All diesel engines -- about 70% of emissions in Europe, North America and Latin America..

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Unmask warming -- Cleaner air may increase committed warming from CO2

-- All of the warming has not shown up fully yet because of the cooling aerosols. Currently, roughly 40 per cent of the committed warming is masked by the cooling aerosols (Ramanathan).

-- Cleaning up dirty air would slow down the rate of warming, but would also unmask the ‘committed’ warming that has already occurred due to accumulated emissions of long-lived GHGs like CO2.

-- Scientists warn that a great part of this masked warming is expected to unfold during the 21st century, as air pollution laws across the world take effect and the cooling effect of aerosols is unmasked.

A twist in the story…………

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Global versus Regional Impacts

(Adapted from Reiersen and Wilson, 2009)

Source: Laura McKelvey, EPA Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, November 18, 2009

Short lived forcers are short-lived and travel short distances ….. their radiative forcing is regionally concentrated.

They create hot spots and vary according to local conditions.

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BC Impact on the Arctic

BC responsible for 50% or nearly 1.0º C of the 1.9º C temperature increase in the Arctic from 1890 to 2007 (Shindell, Faluvegi 2009

13Source:  Nature MagazineMarch 10, 2010

Glaciers at Risk

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Soot and glacial meltGangotri receding?

The IPCC notes that the Himalayan glaciers, the source of water for billions of people in the region, are retreating faster than in any other part of the world and are in danger of disappearing by 2035.(Cruz et al., 2007). Credit: NASA EROS Data Center,September 9, 2001

Doubts…. Indian scientists have questioned the findings on the soot and the Himalayan glacial melt theory … Claim soot’s impact on tropical climate is complex… requires better assessment and measurements… (J Srinivasan etal…)

More studies underway……………

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• Indian scientists have also started assessing the problem -- Physical Research Laboratory, Indian Institute of Science etc……….

• Large reduction of surface solar radiation due to dust – a lowering of atmospheric warming…

• Studies in Indo Gangetic plain… Significantly high aerosol mass concentration, measurements of constituents of the mass and variability, study impact on climate concentrations during haze events, properties and sources of aerosols

• Difference in natural and anthropogenic aerosols and their impact on radiatiave forcing… Impact of aerosols on rain

• Aerosols reduce the heating of the earth’s surface as they decrease the amount of solar energy reaching the surface by absorbing or scattering it…reduces evaporation…aerosol mass makes smaller droplets, less rain etc, etc……….

Triggered Indian studies as well…..

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If local action on air pollution control can control black carbon, why do we need a climate approach towards black carbon?..........

Only public health approach cannot help to address widely dispersed pollution sources….. This action is limited to cities and towns and industrial areas…..

Emissions from ships, brick kilns, scattered burning are more dispersed……

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AVERAGE SULFUR LEVEL IN SHIPS TODAY:

26,000 PPM

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Source: Corbett, et al, 2007

Dispersed sources…………..

Particulates follow the world’s shipping lanes

Brick kilns – all over South Asia

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• Diesel vehicles (particle filters+)• Coal briquettes replacing coal in

residential stoves• Pellet stoves & boilers replacing

residential wood burning in industrialized countries

‘BC Measures’ that reduce emissions of black carbon and co-emissions (e.g. OC, CO)

• Clean-burning cookstoves in developing countries

• Modern brick kilns• Modern coke ovens• Ban of open burning of

agricultural waste

UNEP

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The scientists are saying the estimates of BC warming are being revised upward now as methods have improved. There is more certainty about the effect of BC

But…., the uncertainty remains relatively large for the cooling and cloud effects. This has to do with co-emitted organic aerosols.

But certain -------- diesel, brick kilns and fossil coal burning in cook stoves can be addressed for BC emissions without worrying whether this will also cause cloud cooling.

The science has removed the uncertainty around the climate benefits of reducing diesel black carbon.

Certainties and uncertainties……..

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Winter in Copenhagen...

Residential wood burning – 1/3rd of PM2.5In 2030 private wood burning is expected to emit above 90 % of the Danish BC.

Source: KaarePress-Kristensen

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Impact of current and planned legislation on BC emissions in the EU28, kt

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Source: IIASA – recent GAINS calculations

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Spotlight: Transport and diesel……..

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Vehicles responsible for ~25% of global black carbon emissions

Source: Bond et al., GBC 2007 + van der Werf, 2006 + updates for IPCC AR5

UNEP: Sectoral emissions of BC in India. In India transport is responsible for 21%

http://www.unep.org/ccac/Portals/24183/docs/BlackCarbonSAsiaFinalReport5.22.12.pdf

Indian cities -- High contribution of vehicles to PM2.5 ……..

Pune

Chennai

Indore

Source: S Guttikunda, SIM Air , 2012

Ahmedabad

RajkotSurat

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Challenge of black carbon emissions from vehicles

•Tami C. Bond et al 2004, JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 109, D14203, doi:10.1029/2003JD003697, 2004

Black carbon fraction is high in all diesel uses

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Black Carbon is the Core of Diesel PMBlack Carbon is the Core of Diesel PM

`Bounding the role of black carbon` Report 2013:-- Globally diesel BC is expected to be 20 per cent of the total BC emissions-- Total emissions from gasoline are less than 10% of diesel BC emissions, although gasoline vehicles are more numerous.

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Sales of diesel Cars, MUVs, MPVs

2009‐10 to 2010‐11:Car engines below 1400 cc – 45% growthMore than 2000 cc –41% growth

Other diesel vehicles also on dirty diesel

Dieselisation of car segment in IndiaEven SUV segment shows high growth rate. Naturally. It is so cheap to run diesel cars!

Black carbon emissions from diesel vehicles are several times more heat trapping than CO2

CO2 emissions from the upstream diesel refining process will increase:European Commission has found lifetime pollution costs of Euro IV compliant diesel car is much higher than petrol cars.

Rebound Effect: Diesel fuel has higher carbon content than petrol. If more diesel is burnt encouraged by its cheaper prices and more driving, more heat-trapping CO2 will escape.

Toxic concern – WHO/IARC reclassify diesel emissions as class I carcinogen – in the same class as tobacco

Nullifies marginal greenhouse gas reduction benefit of diesel car ……

Why diesel makes us climate insecure?

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Petrol cars (> 1400cc) Diesel cars (< 1600cc)

CO

2 (g

m/k

m)

CO2CO2

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

Petrol cars (> 1400cc) Diesel cars (< 1600cc)

PM (g

m/k

m)

PMPM

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Vehicle numbers: ExplosiveImportant to take decisions now

Need stringent and preventive action and decision here to influence the future stock -- several times higher than the legacy stock

Source: CSE

Even under Euro IV particle standards, diesel vehicles may still warm the climate for well over the next 100 years

And even if the most stringent California standards were introduced worldwide, diesel may still warm the climate more than gasoline cars for 13 to 54 years. (Jacobson’s assessment)

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In US – the biggest BC challenge is diesel

3030SarofimSarofim 2009/Pew2009/Pew

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Much cleaner diesel vehicles are possible, through stricter standards and clean diesel

fuel

Slide 31

Cleaire Advanced Emission Controls LLC

….removing BC gives positive climate benefitExample from Delhi

Delhi CNG programmeDelhi CNG programmeNew study shows that in comparison with the warming potential ofNew study shows that in comparison with the warming potential ofblack carbon emissions from the older diesel fleet, CNG has beenblack carbon emissions from the older diesel fleet, CNG has beenless warmingless warming……....

---- When black carbon from diesel is not considered estimated CO2 When black carbon from diesel is not considered estimated CO2 (e) increase due to switch(e) increase due to switch

---- When black carbon is taken into account When black carbon is taken into account ---- switch is carbon neutral switch is carbon neutral Upto 30% reduction in CO2 (e)Upto 30% reduction in CO2 (e)

Source: Conor Reynolds and M Kandlikar, British Columbia 2008

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Global discussion?

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Emerging international forum?

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• Post Kyoto …. Wait and watch……..

• A group of countries under the newly titled Climate and Clean Air Coalition created – a separate and distinct international forum, governance structure and funding mechanism to pursue short term climate forcers mitigation…UNEP is a partner and the secretariat

– Specific initiatives on heavy duty diesel BC (also brick kilns etc)

• International maritime organisation exploring controls of international maritime BC etc

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UNEP report foreshadows the emerging trend ………

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• UNEP report 2012 Proposes 16 measures for BC and methane emissions … It states: – About half of the 0.4 degree C climate benefit in 2050 comes from

implementing BC measures – mainly in Asia and Africa – and other half from methane measures in Asia, Europe, North America.

– In N America and Europe largest climate benefit from methane emissions from coal mining, oil and gas production, and better management of municipal waste…

– Although reduction in SLFs substantially slow the rate of climate change over the next few decades… they will make modest contribution to longer term climate change … Therefore reducing SLF complements but does not replace CO2 emissions reduction…………

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Wait and watch……..

-- Ministry of Environment and Forests has initiated black carbon study……….

-- National Climate Action Plan has taken on board the principle of co-benefits: Stringent action on air quality can give co-benefits

-- National Mission on cook stoves has included black carbon mitigation as one of its objectives

-- Yet to develop regulatory indicators for co-benefit application

Whither India?

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Co-benefits of domestic action – the new mantraOther countries have begun to assess co-benefits of

their transportation projects

Fuel savings and CO2 savings of a BRT corridor in Mexico City

ADB 2009

38Source: Based on (Diagnostic Assessment of Select Environmental Challenges in India A World Bank 2013)

Co-benefit framework to reduce multiple risksIndia -- Cost of mitigation is off set by health benefits and reduced

heat trapping CO2

•World Bank study (July, 2013):• Outdoor air pollution is 29% of the total environmental damages•PM10 mitigation will cost less than 1% of GDP•Annual savings from health benefits can be more than USD 100 billion•CO2 emissions can be reduced by upto 60%

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Time for `either- or` is over………….

Science is clear -- Action on air pollution/black carbon can be complementary but not a substitute for cutting down CO2

The new science can spur action in the developing world …

Regional imperatives of short term forcers are different --- it is not about shifting blame……..

Need regulatory framework for co-benefit principle

Get proactive… Set the terms of debate and action right now…………

Way forward………….

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Thank you