5. eia methodologies - ulisboa. eia... · impactes ambientais / environmental impacts 5/9" 5...
TRANSCRIPT
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Prof. Doutora Maria do Rosário Partidário
Metodologias e técnicas de AIA /
EIA Methodologies and techniques "
"
Mestrado em Engenharia do Ambiente"Master on Environmental Engineering"Impactes Ambientais / Environmental Impacts 5/9"
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Content
1. Significance of environmental impacts 2. Methods and techniques 3. Uncertainty in impacts prediction 4. Current state of the environment 5. Alternatives identification and comparison
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Bibliography!CANTER, L. 1996, Environmental Impact
Assessment. McGraw-Hill. (ch 3, ch 15)"
Morris, P. and Therivel, R. (Eds), 2001. Methods of Environmental Impact Assessment, 2nd edition, Spon Press, London (2008 reprint).
Partidário e Jesus, 2003. Fundamentos de Avaliação do Impacte Ambiental. Universidade Aberta. "
Significant impacts Canadian guidance
• Determine adverse negative impacts
• Determine magnitude, including cumulative impacts
• Determine geographical extension of negative impacts
• Determine duration and frequency
• Determine the degree of reversibility
• Assess its probability of occurrence
• Assess the scientific uncertainty of the probability of occurrence of a significant impact
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Key elements to establish the significance (importance) of an
impact • Cultural Importance • Social Importance • Ecological Relevance • Environmental Patterns • Statistic significance • Technical issues • Political/institutional issues
Themes of interest in EIA
• Public health • Safety and security, occupational
health • Vulnerable groups • Gender • Economic organization and well-
being • Population growth • Cultural and aesthetic values
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Impact assessment – criteria for significant impacts - USA (1/2)
• health and safety
• unique characteristics in a geographical area, such as historical and cultural resources, wetlands, scenic rivers, critical areas for nature conservation
• human environmental quality at highly controversial levels
• Unceratin, unique or unknown risks on the human environment
• Precedent for future projects with significant impacts
Impact assessment – criteria for significant impacts - USA (2/2)
• Cumulative impacts
• destruction of designated buildings, places or objects (cultural and historical) or scientific resources
• species or designated habitats
• Risk of violation of any law or regulation for environmental protection
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Finding the significance of impacts All the possible effects of proposed project
Significant impacts
Impact analysis Decision factors Environmental
relevance Scaling impacts
Environmental filter
Methods and techniques in EIA
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EIA methodologies Introduction!
EIA methodologies – approaches developed to identify, predict and value changes of an action. Reflected in the sequence of activities, steps, as well on the range of environmental issues considered (physical, chemical, biological, socioeconomic, cutlural, landscape values and processes)
1/3
• Uses methods and techniques to quantify or to qualify those changes. All aspects and variables can be measured, problem is to value them.
EIA methodologies Introduction! 2/3
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The development of METHODOLOGIES to assess impacts depend on:!
a) The relationships between territorial elements (or characteristics) and the actions
b) The specific measurements and the necessary information to estimate the impacts
c) The mitigation measures, compensation and follow-up
EIA methodologies Introduction! 3/3
Objectives of methodologies!1. Understand the nature and location of the project and
possible alternatives"
2. Identify factors of analysis and assessment objectives"
3. Preliminary identification of impacts and scoping"
4. Baseline studies and evolution in the absence of projects"
5. Prediction and assessment of impacts and alternatives comparison"
6. Mitigation"
7. Monitoring and impacts management"
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Example of methods!1. Experts judgement
2. Checklists and matrices
3. Flowcharts and decision trees
4. Multicriteria analysis
5. Case comparison
6. Simulation Models
7. GIS and map overlays
8. Contingency analysis
9. CBA, CEA, other economic evaluation
Checklist • Structured list of environmental factors potentially affected."• Extensive and complete. Main function: identify ALL possible
consequences of the proposal"• Should enable identification of impacts on:
Soil Water Atmosphere Flora Fauna Resources Recreation Cultural
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1. Simple : no information needed on magnitude or importance of impacts"
2. Descriptive, require information on magnitude or importance of impacts as well as indication on prediction methods and indicators."
3. Questionnaires, three types of answer: “yes”, “no”, “may be”"
Three types:
Checklists
Simple checklists Impactes Project phase
Design Construction Operation Abandonnement 1. On water 1.1. Poluição 1.2. Decréscimo do caudal 1.3. Cambio de uso
X
X
X
2. On air 2.1. Poluição 2.2. Incremento do ruído 2.3. Presencia de maus cheiros
X
X X
3. On climate 3.1. Cambio de temperatura 3.2. Aumento das chuvas 3.3. Aumento da evaporação 3.4. Aumento de nebulosidade
X X X X
4. On soil 4.1. Perda de solo 4.2. Dunas 4.3. Acidificação 4.4. Salinizaçao 4.5. Geração de pântanos 4.6. Problemas de drenagem
X X X X
X
5. On vegetation and fauna 5.1. Perda de biodiversidade 5.2. Extinção de espécies 5.3. Alteração sobre espécies endémicas 5.4. Alteração sobre espécies protegidas
X X X X
6. On population 6.1. Perda de base de recursos 6.2. Alterações culturais 6.3. Perdas de recursos arqueológicos 6.4. Traslado de população
X X
X X
7. Other 7.1. Perda de valores paisagísticos
X
X
X
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Issue Yes May be No Observation Noise. Will the project:
• Increase existing noise levels? ! ! !
Vegetation. Will the project: • Change the diversity or productivity of
species or the number of any species (including trees, shrubs, aquatic plants, etc.)?
! ! !
Energy. Will the project:
• Use substantial amounts of energy? ! ! !
Transports and traffic. Will the project: • Generate additional traffic? ! ! !
• Have effects or increase demand on parking infrastructures?
! ! !
Public services Will the project have effects on, or result in, need for new services or changes in the following areas:
• Fire services?
• ..... ! ! !
Public reaction. Is the project:
• Potentially controverse? ! ! !
• Conflictual with objectives in environmental plans locally adopted?
! ! !
Chec
klis
ts:
impa
ct id
enti
fica
tion
EIA process and activities.
EIA applications (sessions 5 and 6)
INTERNATIONAL MASTER IN SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND CORPORATE RESPONSIBILITY / Professor Maria do Rosário Partidário
Checklists: environmental sources
Key criteria Key Environmental sources Air and climate changes
! Air quality levels; ! Sulfur dioxide levels; ! CO2 emmission
Protected areas ! Designated areas (ha) under national or international protection (for example Natura 2000 – Special Conservation Areas and Special protection Areas
Natural resources
....
Water .... Soil .... Landscape .... Noise .... Coastal areas ....
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Checklists
Advantage
• structured list of key potential factors for analysis or key impacts - aide-memoire;
• often result from experts judgement published by public / international organizations;
• enable interdisciplinary discussions;
• preparatory stage for matrix assessment (checklist of actions /activities and checklist of environmental components);
Disadvantage
• Guided tour - standard analysis, misses specific issues
Matrices!Double entrance tables, permit establishment of relationships: "1. Project actions or activities (causes) "2. And the environmental factors (effects)""
Functions:""- Preliminary identification of impacts (scoping)"- Comparative analysis of alternatives"- Impact assessment"-Presentation of evaluation results"
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Matrices!a b c d e
a 2 1
+8 5
b 7 2
8 8
1 3
9 7
Leopold Matrix (Leopold et al., 1971). 100 causes per 100 effects.
Magnitude (left-hand corner) and Importance or significance (right-hand corner). Scale 1 to 10. Values can still be signaled as positive ( “+”) or negative (“-”).
Matrices – Basic rules "1. Objectives and assumptions clear."2. Matrices can be used creatively to identify indirect
impacts, cumulative impacts or contributions to mitigation measures."
3. Its better to use colour codes and graphical symbols in matrices."
4. The development ofa matrix does not imply that it needs to be used in the report, it may simply be an element of work "
5. Each impact analysis needs to be contextualized."
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FLOWCHARTS!
Flowcharts and impacts trees, including network diagrams, enable the analysis of the inter-relationship between causes and effects and enables de analysis of indirect and cumulative impacts. """
Intensification of cultivated areas
D5: Roquefort and Féta separated ; Méjan
specialised in Féta : industrialists set
volumes and rules
Intensive ovine breeding
Strategies of farms: to maximise profitability
Arable lands concentrated on high
potential lands
HuntingD6: End of local measures to pine control
Extension of pine forest: fast
landscape closure
Increase of wild ungulate
populations
Incomes maintained for some farms thanks to the development of labels and niche products
integrated in industrial rangesTourism Local agriculture with
high value products
D4: End of direct payments
Land abandonmentStrong decrease of farms number
Shrub encroachment,
extension of pine forest: fast
landscape closure and cultivated land turned in
fallows
Strong increase of forest areas & strong
fire risks
Strong decrease of rangelands and
grasslands & strong erosion of biodiversity
Decrease of cultivated areas
FLOWCHARTS!
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Fluxograma de impactes da aplicação aérea de herbicida (Bisset, 1983)
Aplicação aérea de herbicidas
Contaminação da água por herbicidas
Decréscimo do oxigénio dissolvido
Mortalidade de vegetação para alem da pretendida com o
herbicida
Perda de vegetação
ripícola
Contaminação de cadeia
alimentar no meio aquático
Decréscimo do crescimento de
algas, fitoplancton, etc
Aumento da temperatura da
água
Contaminação de cadeia alimentar no meio terrestre
Aumento do escoamento superficial
Aumento da perda de água
Aumento dos sedimentos
Aumento da carência de
oxigénio dissolvido
Danos na desova
Poluição da água por sólidos flutuantes
Aumento da erosão
Aumento do caudal
Flowcharts / Networks
Advantages: - integrated assessment, instead of discipline by discipline - inter-relations between causes and effects, including indirect impacts - cumulative impact assessment - communication (when simple). Disadvantages: - complexity (especially visually complex) - difficult to distinguish and quantify magnitudes (and importance) of different impacts
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Cartográfica Área de análise
IMPACTE 3
Ruidos
IMPACTE 4
Alteración cobertura vegetal
IMPACTES ACUMULADOS
Área de influencia
IMPACTE 1 Lavado de suelos
IMPACTE 2
Modificación de hábitats
Overlays and GISs
Arcview
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Definition of areas of maximum infiltration
IFI= valorTHS+valorT+valorAGUT Fonte: Luis Ribeiro, PU Carregueira, 2009
Sinopse dos Métodos de avaliação de impactes vs. etapas do AIA
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Sources of uncertainty: • information on baseline and on the project (quantity, precision, reliability) • associated to the model • preparation of the model • application of the model
quantity: spatial and temporal resolution, reading mistakes, bias and imprecisions associated to the technique.
precision: detail on measurements
reliability: correctin of such measurements
The more precise is the information the more difficult it is to get reliable data.
Uncertainties related to:
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Baseline characterization
Characterization should: "• limit itself to the relevant affected factors" "• be proportional to the probable significant impact""
1st step- establish objectives in information collection""Do not collect and present available information just because it is available, if it is irrelevant, concentrate efforst on relevant information"
Baseline
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2nd step- analysis of available information and verification of such information to the defined objectives."
- spatial and temporal representativeness"
tempo
variá
vel a
mbi
enta
l
t1 t2 tempo
variá
vel a
mbi
enta
l
t1 t2
3rd stage- identify additional information needs, field work/ time available"
4th stage- synthesize collected information and identify gaps in knowledge and how important they are to the keyobjectives"
"
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• Methods vary depending on natural, social or economic variables"
• Function of scoping and impacts identification"
Criteria for selection of methods:""- Objectives"
- impact indicators (relationship with monitoring)"
- limitation: time and budget"
Baseline - methods
Prediciton of impacts - Methods Prediction of impacts is based on the quantification or descriptive qualification of impacts identified. Prediction impacts are clearly dependent on impacts and disciplines.
Type of methods: • Experts opinion • Case comparison • Use of models • Experiments
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Prediciton of impacts - Models Physical models – representation of the reality ina reduced scale, simulating processes. (Exs. Wind tunnels or coastal area physical models that simulate waves)
Visual models – elaboration of images that represent the environment before and after the development of a project and its alternatives. It can also address the timing dimension (e.g., seasonal changes, vegetation growth).
Mathematic models- maths or statistic simulations applied to the deterministic or probabilistic calculation, based on quantitative values.
Cartographic models- representation of reality that will be affected by the project through maps or charts. Cartographic overlaps enable impact preditions.
Impact Assessment Meaning (or importance) of an impact depends on its scale (geographic scale and duration) and its intensity.
Impacts can be positive or negative. Significative negative impacts may occur even when the global balance of impacts is positive.
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Alternatives comparative assessment
“The object of analysis in alternatives assessment is to define the merits and disadvantages of realistic alternatives, enabling to decision-makers and to the public a clear basis for the choice of option” (World Bank, 1996)
Technical, economic, social and environmental viability of alternatives: the proponent needs to be willing to develop any of the alternatives being considered
Alternatives comparative assessment
Analyse separately the sets of alternatives, whenver possible.
A B C1
2
3
4
5
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Alternatives comparative assessment In relation to decision factors
• Define the alternatives to be analysed
• Define the factors of analysis (decision factors)
• Weighting the decision factor
Decision factors Alternatives
A1 A2 A3 A4 A5
F1
F2
F3
F4
Methods for alternatives comparative assessment "
Multi-criteria assessment"
1. Quantitative and qualitative assessment"
2. Weighting the decision factors"
Methods: "Process of nominal group (group intercative technique)"1) Nominal generation of ideas (silent and independent) "2) Table checklist"3) Group discussion (clarification, evaluation) (e.g. Delphi method)"4) Order voting or assessment in a numerical scale "Delphi method"Preparation of an individual questionnaire per panel member.
Communication of results to each panel member and new round of voting."
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Preparation of the following table for experts selection and assessment"
Reduzida importância
Elevada importância
Total Peso Factor (ou área de impact e )
1 2 3 4 5 F 1 F 2 F 3 F 4 F 5 … .
1. Each experts fills in the table based on comparison of factors "
2. Calculation of total"
3. Weight results from the division of each factor by the total "
4. Calculate the average of the tables as filled in by each expert"
5. Each expert compares the average of the group with its own value"