5 paradoxical consumer trends
TRANSCRIPT
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5 Trendwatchers
1
By Herman Konings
Herman Konings (°1964) is Master in theoretical and
change psychology and founder of Belgian trend and
future research agency Pocket Marketing/nXt. As a
renowned Belgian trendwatcher. Konings is sought
after as a trends consultant and keynote speaker by
companies and organizations throughout the globe. In
addition, his insights have been featured in books and
(other) media since 1999. Autogrill, BNP Paribas
Fortis, Electrolux, Flemish Council, Henkel, IBM, ING
Bank, JBC, Nespresso, Philips Lighting, Roularta
Media, Siemens, Flanders Tourist Board, Unilever and
VRT are a few of his clients.
Herman Konings
@soeproza
www.nxt.be
@soeproza
This anti-aging trend is related to the writings of
entrepreneur Michael Hogg, who described in his book
‘The Age-nostic Men‘ how you can feel and live like a 35-
year-old when you are 53. Between 1950 and 2010 the
average global life expectancy increased with 252 months.
When age expectations go up, so does the number of
patients and health becomes an increasingly important
issue. In all corners of society and across all age
categories, people start taking control of their own health.
This amortality trend is built on two evolutions: more
monitoring and benchmarking of life statistics on the one
hand and carefree sporting just for fun without any feeling
of competition towards the other, referred to as
‘sportainment’.
@soeproza
Striving for health has turned into a spiritual thing, self-
discipline being its highest level. In the same mind-frame of
the ‘sharing trend’, sports are evolving from solitary
community service for ‘caged hamsters’ to a health
investment based on cosiness, appealing context and
mutual support. Fitbits, Nike Fuelband and other
instruments to measure our sport activities or burned
calories, are only the start of the amortality trend. The after-
war generations no longer wish to ‘grow old healthily’. They
simply wish not to grow old at all! Amortality is an
atypical alchemy, originating at the meeting point of
believing in one’s own capacity and the increasing life
expectancy.
@soeproza
The Internet of bodies
The Apple App Store alone offers over 50,000
health and fitness apps, most of which fit with
the 0-1-2-3 norm: 0 manuals, 1 start button, 2
options and 3 seconds for your question to be
answered. By 2017 the worldwide sales of
(non-prescribed) portable health sensors -
including apps and add-ons for smartphones -
is estimated to hit half a billion a year. (Source:
ABI Research). So instead of speaking about
‘apps’, we will speak about ‘adds‘ in 2014: add-
on physical health monitoring tools linking your
body to your smartphone with applications
meant to motivate you into health-endorsing
behavior.
@soeproza
Some examples:
Youw8 benchmarks
your weight with that
of people of the
same age
iBGStar monitors
blood glucose levels
for diabetes patients
Tinké is an iPhone
plug-in measuring
blood pressure,
pulse, oxygen and
some other key
health indicators
permanently scoring
your body functions
on 100
Ignite app is a life
expectancy calculator
with gamified options
and tips to live a
healthier life and
increase the number of
hours you will be alive:
the life number. Watch
the introduction video
@soeproza
Work (your) heart, play hard
Millennials increasingly want to go to events where the
excitement originates from feeling part of the crowd.
They want to feel part of something greater and in an
age where they are often separated by screens, they
value these moments where they can come together
and connect with peers. Not only connections with
digital communities, but first and foremost with people
in real units - and not exclusively age or gender peers.
As our social and professional lives are configured
more and more by bits and bytes, we see an increase
in Generation Y’s longing for material substance and
corporality. Conviviality is gaining in interest in our
sporting activities; people share challenges and
experiences. We are on the eve of a breakthrough of
‘sportainment’ in Europe.
@soeproza
Some examples:
Run Dem Crew
A movement founded by Charlie Dark in 2007 as an alternative to traditional stuffy running
clubs. Runners start with a hug and then run together without any competitive goal. The Run
Dem Crew is now sponsored by Nike.
Tough Mudder
A boot camp for everyone, not only for the most sporting types. It started in the US in 2010
and immediately had 20,000 participants. The general philosophy is group thinking and
participating implies you are to help and motivate others. In the meanwhile Tough Mudder
organizes 52 different events on a yearly basis and no less than 700,000 people (of which
25% are women) took part in 2013.
Naked Run for Freedom
Originated from the Danish Roskilde festival. The festival encourages guests to get naked
and race for charity. Runners are only allowed to wear a helmet and shoes. The annual
recurrent attraction at Roskilde is the naked run around the campsite. Whether motivation
comes from the free ticket to the next year’s festival given to the male and female winners,
a desire to contribute to a worthy cause or the wish to experience a feeling of freedom,
dozens of participants try their hand at nude-running every year.
Color run
5 km of running while being sprayed with colored powder: a contest without competition,
figures or statistics, it is simply about enjoying the mutual activity, also called party-cipation.
@soeproza
In the past 5 years the share of sporting holidays
(including climbing the Kilimanjaro or cycling to
the top of Mont Ventoux in France) has already
increased with 20% and 2014 will be a year filled
with ‘sportainment’ for many Millennials.
@soeproza
2
By Sven Mastbooms
Born in Belgium, 1966. Self-taught
entrepreneur. Started a communication
and design agency at the age of 19.
Co-founder and Creative director at
www.Agent7.be.
Mainly working for media, telco and youth
brands. Co-founder and Trend Translator at
www.KindredSpirits.be.
Travel companion for people and organizations
on their journey towards sustainable innovation.
Born curious, eager to learn. Gathering kindred
spirits to make a difference. Big interest in education
programs, trying to fill the gap by organizing free
coding programs for kids during the weekend with
volunteer coaches. Volunteering to promote STEM
and IT-science in schools. Singularity University
alumni.
Sven Mastbooms
@Sven_Seven
www.sevenproductions.be
@Sven_Seven
There is one thing we can agree on: Millennials have been taught all their lives
to make as little effort as possible yet to find and reach what they want when
they want it in a way that suits them best. They have grown up with a rather
natural ‘shortcut reflex’. Older generations sometimes wrongfully mistake them
for being idle. However there is not one single reason why we should make a
detour. Yet we do so every day, because we were taught it wrongly, because
we have been conditioned differently. So we do it out of habit or because there
are rules, trainings and legislations which keep us from taking shortcuts. This
trend focuses on the ‘shareconomy’ (or the ‘shortcut society’) which is
embraced by Generation Y.
@Sven_Seven
The access to information, technology,
money and kindred spirits (peers) has
been largely facilitated by social media
and sharing. Just think about how P2P
networks have done damage to the
music, TV and movie business. In 2014,
we will see an endless flow in several
sectors of new peer-to-peer and
shortcut initiatives which - based on the
Millennials’ passion - will rock the boat
of several classic sectors. Existing
business models will get under pressure
as a result of the Gen Y consumers’
urge to take a quicker, easier, cheaper
and less strenuous shortcut to the
solution.
@Sven_Seven
In the education sector
The so-called MOOCs (= Massive Online Open
Courses) such as Khan Academy, a non-profit
educational website providing free world-class
education for anyone anywhere through a video
library and over 100,000 practical exercises. Other
examples include: eDX, Coursera and Coderdojo,
coaching youngsters aged 7 to 18 to learn how to
code in a cozy club context, stressing the usage of
open-source free software.
@Sven_Seven
In the mobility sector
Lyft is a cellphone application which
allows users to ‘order’ a driver to their
location in minutes. During their ride,
passengers can play their own music
and charge their mobile devices. All
drivers are subjected to a criminal
background check as well as a
vehicle inspection and a two-hour
training session. At the end of the trip,
passengers pay the driver the amount
of their choice in the form of a
(technically optional) donation.
Because Lyft facilitates pre-arranged
travel instead of on-the-street taxi-
hailing and operates on a donation
system, its drivers do not need a taxi
license. Although payment is not
guaranteed, the majority of Lyft users
are willing to pay the drivers a
satisfactory rate.
@Sven_Seven
Uber app
Already active in 22 countries and 60 cities, offering
cheap car loans to drivers (financial services), might
start other services such as sharing/renting your
equipment in cities (e.g. barbecues). Google is one
of the investors and according to NYMag, Uber is
already valued higher than Facebook and Twitter
because it is profitable and does not depend on an
ad revenue business model.
FlyKly smart wheel
Why buy a new bicycle if all you need is an electric wheel which can be
installed on any bike? Engine, batteries, GPS chip and electronic lock are
integrated in the wheel axle. The related app gives wheel and battery
information as well as statistics on cycling style, itineraries etc. The GPS
chip is connected to the cycling computer functions and suggests shorter
and safer new routes, find-my-bike and of course route sharing with the
FlyKly community.
Other initiatives include BlaBla Car, Spinlister, Getaround, Side-car,
Boatbound, Flightcar, Jumpseat.
@Sven_Seven
In the travel sector
Gen Y is the fastest growing customer segment in the
travel industry. They are expected to finance
half of all travel spending by 2020. Millennials are
adventure seekers. Millennials want a great place to
stay and an experience which fits with them, not an
impersonal treatment in an anonymous environment.
The industry has already created some new travel
experiences that tap into this trend, such as portable
container hotels that allow guests to stay in more
off-the-beaten-track locations (e.g. Sleeping Around,
Sleepbox Hotel…). Peer-to-peer lodging companies
are challenging traditional hotels. Generation Y is
simply more accustomed to networking with and
trusting peers as illustrated by the following 2013
data (see graph on next slide).
Airbnb.com
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@Sven_Seven
@Sven_Seven
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T Inte
lligence -
May
3,
2013
3
By Tom Palmaerts
Tom Palmaerts is a trendwatcher and partner at Trendwolves,
European youth intelligence. He continually expands a network of
young and talented trendsetters, his main interests being micro-
trends, tribes, online communities and street culture. At Trendwolves
Palmaerts conducts trend research on the next five years. He is a
worldwide keynote speaker and trend consultant. Working for brands
such as Clariant, HP, Microsoft Innovation Center, Palm, PwC,
Universal Music, Hello Bank!… Every year clients can read
Trendwolves’ future vision in a trend report. On a daily basis brands
can login to Youthr, a youth trend database for inspiration, strategy
and insights. In 2008 Tom Palmaerts was awarded “Youth trend
specialist of the year” by the Dutch trend-watching platform Second
Sight, as a result of his drive, originality and passion.
Since 2012 he teaches 'scenario thinking' and
'trendwatching’ at the University College Ghent.
In September 2013 Tom Palmaerts received
the ‘Trendwatcher of The Year’ award.
"He is activating and can bring
things in motion.”
Tom Palmaerts
@palmaerts
www.trendwolves.com
@palmaerts
THE OLD TREND OF FOMO
In 2014 the old trend of FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out, i.e. youngsters
continuously wanting to stay informed about everything through social
networks and cellphones) will be replaced by “cloaking”. Youngsters will
create an increasing number of private pages or closed groups on
Facebook or on other channels (e.g. the more anonymous Tumblr or
Snapchat) to protect their content from the main audience. “I am what I
share” is still valid for the Millennials but they will become more aware
of who can see what. In 2013 Gen Y was swamped by the NSA
eavesdropping scandals and Edward Snowden, the whistleblower, was
voted ‘man of the year’ by several magazines and newspapers. These
facts make youngsters think about what they drop online which
could indeed possibly end up in the wrong hands, be it the
government or someone closer to home: teachers, possible employers
or ex-partners.
@palmaerts
THERE ARE fourPOSSIBLE CLOAKING
CHANNELS FOR
YOUNGSTERS:
@palmaerts
De-facing means you replace your profile picture on
social networks by anonymous pictures, masks and so
on. The idea of anonymity by de-facing was totally
present in 2013 in the fashion world: Maison Martin
Margiela - since 2002 part of the OTB holding of
Diesel’s Renzo Rosso - used masked models on the
catwalk and designed masks for, amongst others, Bjork
and Kanye West.
De-facing
1.
@palmaerts
The #UNSELFIE also appeared late 2013 as a
reaction to the overly popular #selfie photography. The
unselfie focuses on a message, a worthy cause. It no
longer is about what we look like but about what
we stand for. For the socially engaged Millennials
(see also #movember and #givingtuesday)
and who expect a broader point of view from brands in
society, this could definitely become a new trend
in 2014.
Secret.ly is a space to openly share what you're
thinking and feeling with your friends. Speak freely,
share anything, secretly. Just like with the unselfie it’s
not about who you are, but about what you say.
Anonymous. But you know everything is shared by
your friends. The more people love your posts, the
further they spread. Your thoughts can travel
worldwide.
#UNSELFIE
@palmaerts
Late October last year Facebook had to admit for the very first time that the
number of youngsters using the social network site seems to be decreasing.
According to PEW research (June 2013) a mere 26% of the US Millennials
trust the government, compared to 44% in 2004. Gen Y thinks there is less to
commercial organizations using the details they posted in order to improve
their offer and to get something in exchange than to the government using
their details, because of security reasons. The ‘Stop Watching Us’ campaign
started by Firefox in 2013 collected more than 588,000 signatures.
Deleting your online presence does not seem to be a good idea for your privacy.
Youngsters keep a light version of their Facebook (or other network). They find
privacy by sharing a little bit and keeping control on their profile.
De-sharing
2.
@palmaerts
Deleting is the new default. Every day more pictures are shared on SnapChat (400
million) than on Facebook (350 million). So the question is: how is Facebook dealing
with this new trend? The company recently bought Instagram when it became clear
that an increasing number of youngsters prefer sharing pictures on Instagram,
but SnapChat refused Facebook’s $3 billion offer late last year.
Snapchat recently added an instant messaging service to the platform. After
chatting, messages will self-destruct automatically. Snapchat changes the typical
chatting apps and adds the idea of deleting as the new default to our sharing. At this
moment teenagers don’t seem to like the new changes, but let’s see what they will
think of it in a few weeks.
De-leting
3.
@palmaerts
Edward Snowden used the anonymity network Tor to send his information
to The Guardian and The Washington Post. Websites which allow
anonymous surfing, chatting or searching keep gaining in
popularity among Millennials. For example, after exposure of the NSA
scandal, DuckDuckGo.com suddenly got more than 3 million searches a
day, an impressive increase compared with the 1.8 million the month
before. Cryptocat - an app allowing you to surf directly from your browser
in an encrypted environment - got the youth’s attention after a tweet by
developer Nadim Kobeissi about his being questioned by the US
Homeland Security Department. So-called ‘crypto parties’ are even
organized, where youngsters explain to each other how to do things
anonymously online. The initiator of these crypto parties is supposed to
be The Guardian journalist @Asher_Wolf who is residing in Melbourne.
The dark web
4.
@palmaerts
4
By Steven Van Belleghem
Steven is one of Europe's thought leaders in the
field of social media, conversations and digital
marketing. Throughout his career, Steven has
studied the impact of digital and social media on
consumers and organizations. He uses this
knowledge to inspire and facilitate companies to
adapt their existing approach to today’s reality.
Throughout the years, he has hosted hundreds of
workshops for top and middle management to
help them with their conversation strategy.
Steven loves to share his vision through inspiring
papers and presentations. He also likes to share
on his Slideshare page, which is one of the most
successful pages in the world. His latest book
The Conversation Company (over 10,000 copies
sold in 6 months) details a clear philosophy and
offers a roadmap on how to become a genuine
customer-centric organization that exploits the
possibilities of digital media to the full.
Steven Van Belleghem
@StevenVBe
http://stevenvanbelleghem.com
@StevenVBe
Five years ago marketers talked about chameleon consumers who were
eclectic in their choices and therefore difficult for market researchers
and marketing managers to segment or to predict. Today however we
leave traces, willy-nilly, like a kind of consumer snail, through the
choices and searches we do online or on mobile devices. As mentioned
in the previous trend, Millennials increasingly react to this by hiding
more and more; nonetheless companies still find an abundance of
useful information to predict you as a consumer.
@StevenVBe
About 80% of the information gathered about a person
by the CIA is simply available online, so software
increasingly replaces secret agents. Nate Silver perfectly
predicted the results of the most recent American
presidential election for 50 states. Internet TV station
Netflix created its own series House of Cards, based
on a detailed analysis of the big data they gather on
subscription preferences. The series became a big
success which was predictable for 90%.
@StevenVBe
None of the Taco Bell launches in the past 5 years has failed, because
the company has developed an algorithm which can calculate whether a
given product will make it or not. The algorithm obtains data from till
registrations (whether something sells well or not) but also from what is
shared about the products on social media. Because you may buy a
product but not like it. The result of the algorithm gives the go or no-go for
every new product idea.
@StevenVBe
In the meantime, Twitter does not only influence
the stock market; if you analyze the right tweets, it
can also predict it.
@StevenVBe
In this age of algorithms companies will shift
from a production for the average customer
to tailor-made solutions for the individual
client. Wonga.com, a newcomer among British
credit institutions since 2007, grants loans to its
customers based on the solvency of their
Facebook friends. This is how they can grant
credits quicker and entirely online. The
company obtains a 97% satisfaction score
among customers and scores best in its market.
@StevenVBe
What one shares on Facebook reveals
more about your character and positive and
negative characteristics than any personality
test. IBM researcher Michelle Zhou can
determine your personality by analyzing 200
of your tweets. The Weather Channel can
predict consumer behavior and determine
which products had better be sold on which
days. Even colleges now use big data to
predict whether students will perform better
or not.
@StevenVBe
The increased use of big consumer data and its
clear usage for approaching consumers does
have some disadvantages, however. As already
mentioned in previous blog posts, Millennials are
more and more concerned about their privacy.
And right they are.
@StevenVBe
Forbes already described before how the US retailer Target gave a
pregnancy score to every female client, based on their purchases of given
product categories – therefore they could almost predict whether
a woman was pregnant and which stage of the pregnancy she was in. At
a given point the Minneapolis branch was visited by an angry father
of a teenage daughter who suddenly started receiving mails for baby
clothing. Turned out that Target had predicted the daughter’s pregnancy
before she had told her father. Since then, Target has applied the coupon
program for pregnant women, by also adding coupons for products which
are highly unlikely to be purchased by a pregnant woman. This is how
the retailer avoids the mailings to seem too intrusive to its customers.
@StevenVBe
In the end, nothing is as boring as being
predictable and being predicted. I get many
reading suggestions from Amazon.com,
which may be useful, but Millennials (in
particular), known as stimulation junkies,
want to really be surprised or experience
something unusual. Which is how one trend
leads to reactions, leading in their turn to
new trends.
@StevenVBe
5
By Joeri Van den Bergh
Joeri Van den Bergh is the co-founder of
InSites Consulting, a global ‘new generation’
research agency with offices in the US,
Belgium, the Netherlands and the UK. He has
extensive experience with all aspects of
branding, marketing and advertising to kids,
teens and young adults. His clients include
global customers such as Heinz, Vodafone,
PepsiCo, MTV Networks, Sony, AB InBev,
Skype, Heineken and Coca-Cola. His latest
and bestselling publication ‘How Cool Brands
Stay Hot’ recently won the ‘Best Book in
Marketing’ award by the American Marketing
Association and the ‘Marketing Book of the
Year’ award by Expert Marketer.
Joeri Van den Bergh
@Joeri_InSites
www.insites-consulting.com
www.howcoolbrandsstayhot.com
@Joeri_InSites
THAASOPHOBIA
As a reaction to our by algorithms predicted behavior,
the over-personalization of products, services and ad
messages, too many suggested links or purchases in
our social media, on e-commerce sites or even in
shops, we will fight a harder battle against boredom in
2014. We are suffering from “Thaasophobia”, the fear
of being idle, of standing still or of getting bored.
@Joeri_InSites
Vis
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Even speed dating is no longer speedy enough, unless it literally happens as in this 2013 Renault Clio RS commercial.
@Joeri_InSites
We increasingly feel a need for unexpected,
coincidental, fun discoveries and surprises
in a society in which everything is becoming
too predictable. It has been scientifically
proven that a sandwich is better when prepared
by someone else, because otherwise we
anticipate too much on the taste (based on the
fact that we know the ingredients), which kills
the appetite. 2014 will be the year of serendipity.
@Joeri_InSites
Many inventions and discoveries are the consequence of ‘sheer luck’, as
serendipity could be described. Think about X-rays, Kellogg’s cornflakes, 3M’s
Post-its, the HP inkjet printer, Viagra, the teabag, penicillin or the discovery of
America. So the notion ‘serendipity’ is also important in a way that it could be
at the start of a new economy, The Serendipity Economy, where other less
fixed methods of collaboration increase the chances of coincidental discoveries.
Collaborative social networks for companies such as Yammer and more open-
ended research methods such as Consumer Consulting Boards are supporting
this new way of business thinking.
@Joeri_InSites
Even thé number 1 algorithm company,
Google, still shows the “I’m feeling lucky”
button which immediately takes you to the
first search result based on your search
words. This is possibly costing Google a
yearly 110 million dollars in missed income
from advertising. And how about Google’s
famous Doodles. Aren’t they regularly
surprising and intriguing us and making a
boring search job more fun?
@Joeri_InSites
The urge for serendipity has also infiltrated events such as TomorrowLand en TomorrowWorld, since
‘being surprised by an event’ is the number 1 main criterion for Millennials, as we learn from an InSites
Consulting survey realized in 13 countries (Belgium, Brazil, China, Germany, India, Italy, the Netherlands,
Poland, Russia, Sweden, Turkey, the UK & the USA) earlier this year (full results will be shared in
September 2014).
@Joeri_InSites
But it is also a “business an sich”, such as
the lovely surprise boxes on
notanotherbill.com or the Belgian Deauty.be
(which stands for Discover Beauty) or the
‘Pochette surprise’ for €20 at the
fashionable Paris retailer Colette. Panera
bread, the American bakery-and-café chain,
has also included a healthy portion of
serendipity in its MyPanera loyalty card.
@Joeri_InSites
Talking about playing with cards…
…board games, which traditionally have
strict rules, now also give more room to
coincidences. Examples are Cards against
humanity - immensely popular in the US - and
Shut you Mao - new and since recently
sponsored by Kickstarter.
@Joeri_InSites
Computer games - such as
Mindcraft - are very popular with the
youngest generation. Mindcraft is an
‘open world game’ that has no
specific goals for the player to
accomplish, allowing players a large
amount of freedom in choosing how
to play the game. Since its release
late 2011, over 33 million copies
have been sold.
@Joeri_InSites
22tracks.com is a curated jukebox which
contains 22 playlists of 22 tracks each. All
tracks are selected by deejays from 4 cities.
The idea is that you get surprised, that you
discover new genres and new music, without
registering.
@Joeri_InSites
Renault introduced serendipity in
this year’s test drives with the ‘Va
va voom’ button, but the version for
girls was the most successful one
on Youtube.
@Joeri_InSites
Jeep introduced the “Get lost” button
into their GPS system. Jeep drivers can
select it and choose their terrain from
options such as mountain, sand or
woods. The GPS will then take them to
one of 28 off-road destinations in the
middle of nowhere.
@Joeri_InSites
And last but not least, Heineken has been using
serendipity since 2013 as the core of their positioning
and viral marketing. From the departure roulette through
the #dropped campaign all the way to the most recent
Christmas Carol karaoke which has already reached more
than 2.5 million views after it was launched last week.
@Joeri_InSites
Herm
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Ko
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@s
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To
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@p
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Sve
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@S
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Jo
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@J
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Thank you!