50 breakthroughs: critical scientific & technological breakthroughs.required for sustainable...
TRANSCRIPT
15:00 - 17:30
Tecnologías para la sostenibilidad
Presenta: Julio EismanDirector Fundación ACCIONA Microenergía
“50 BREAKTHROUGHS: CRITICAL SCIENTIFIC & TECHNOLOGICAL BREAKTHROUGHS.Required for Sustainable Global Development”
Zach FriedmanDirector de programas del “Institute for Globally Transformative Technologies”. Universidad de Berkeley
June 2015
Institute for Globally Transformative Technologies at the Lawrence Berkeley National Lab
50 BREAKTHROUGHS: CRITICAL SCIENTIFIC & TECHNOLOGICAL BREAKTHROUGHS
Required for Sustainable Global Development
Inventing, developing and deploying the next generation of technological breakthroughs to combat global poverty
LIGTT: An Introduction
• 3,500 scientists and engineers
• $800 million of annual R&D
• 13 Nobel Laureates
• Historically US-focused
Institute for Globally Transformative Technologies
at the Lawrence Berkeley National Lab
Objective: Leverage LBNL’s capabilities towards breakthrough solutions for sustainable global development
Core beliefs
1. Populations at the base of the pyramid lack essential products to enjoy an adequate quality-of-life. There is a large market for such products.
New generation of products—low-cost, robust, energy-efficient—required to improve food security, health, work productivity, access to information & household comfort.
2. Such breakthroughs require serious R&D, which the private sector has not invested in, due to low expected margins and unpredictable market dynamics
Leverage is key to reducing upstream costs and commercial feasibility.
Yield response to varying levels of fertilizer
40 80 120 160
2,000
2,450
2,800
3,200
Fertilizer use (kilograms per hectare)
Yield: Tons per hectare
Fertilizer usage around the world
Maize Rice
40
10
70
160
210 210
270
250
SSA India China USA
Kilograms per hectare
Human waste is not sufficient
Potential increase in cereal production vs. percent of adult human waste utilized for fertilizer
0% 6% 12%18%24%30%36%42%48%54%60%66%72%78%84%90%96% -
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Percentage of adult human waste utilized
Inc
rea
se
in c
ere
al y
ield
(M
illio
ns
of
ton
s)
*(Percentage of current cereal production in Kenya, 4.5 billion tons)
*(5%)
*(10%)
*(15%)
*(20%)
*(25%)
Human waste is not sufficient
Current Yield increase from family waste
Total
1660.0
134.5
1794.5
Current maize yield on a 1 hA farm in Kenya, and potential increase from using human waste from 3 adults,
Tons per year
Health
Climate change & environmental damage
Education
Human rights
Energy
Digital inclusion
Gender equity
Food security
Water
Analysis across 9 major issue areas
Methodology
What are the most significant root causes of loss?
Health: DALYsAgriculture: Yield loss
What underlies these problems and what are the most promising interventions?
What is the dependence of each intervention on:
• Major policy reforms
• Infrastructure development
• Financial inclusion
• Behavior change
• Breakthrough technologyWhat are the major deployment challenges?
What is the projected time horizon for each technology breakthrough?
Key Challenges
1) The innovation pipeline needs strengthening
2) The R&D gap between developing and developed countries is wide and unlikely to change soon
US NIH budget (grants) Global spend on neglected diseases
27
3
Funding for health research in the US from NIH and for global diseases from all sources (USD, billions)
2) The R&D gap between developing and developed countries is wide and unlikely to change soon
Funding per DALY (global spend and DALYs)
Funding per DALY (US cancer funding and US DALYs only)
HIV
Mal
aria TB
Dengu
e
Diarrh
eal d
iseas
e
Kinet
opla
stid
s
Pneum
o/m
enin
gitis
Helm
nith
s
Prost
ate
Breas
t
Lung
s
Colon
14 7 12
311
2 32 1 7
1,262 1,168
177
577
3) Academic systems often do not support research in development
4) New technologies don’t fix broken systems
World average
OECD countries
South Asia
Sub-Saharan
Africa
$95 $53
$5,457
$952
Per capita annual expenditure on health
Percent of total expenditure on health
Out-of-pocket expenditure on health
30%
60%
14%18%
World average
OECD countries
South Asia
Sub-Saharan
Africa
4) New technologies don’t fix broken systems
0.6 0.6
4.2
3.7
Number of hospital beds
Per 1,000 people
World average
OECD countries
South Asia
Sub-Saharan
Africa
4) New technologies don’t fix broken systems
Number of physicians
0.2
0.6
2.8
1.4
Per 1,000 peopleNumber of nurses and midwives
0.8 0.9
7.4
2.9
Per 1,000 peopleBirths attended by skilled health staff
47% 48%
99%
67%
Percent of births
Sub-Saharan
Africa
Sub-Saharan
Africa
Sub-Saharan
Africa
South Asia
South Asia
South Asia
OECD countries
OECD countries
OECD countries
World average
World average
World average
5) The lowest income individuals are the hardest to reach
5) The lowest income individuals are the hardest to reach
Location of birth by income bracket in sub-Saharan Africa
6) No one really understands what climate change will look like
Select quotes quotes from IPCC 2013 report [emphasis added]…
“Africa is one of the most vulnerable continents to climate change and climate variability, a situation aggravated by the interaction of ‘multiple stresses’, occurring at various levels, and low adaptive capacity.”
“Projected reductions in yield in some countries could be as much as 50% by 2020, and crop net revenues could fall by as much as 90% by 2100.... This would adversely affect food security in the continent.”
“The population at risk of increased water stress in Africa is projected to be between 75-250 million and 350-600 million people by the 2020s and 2050s, respectively”
“Climate variability and change could result in low-lying lands being inundated, with resultant impacts on coastal settlements”
“Climate variability and change, coupled with human-induced changes, may also affect ecosystems e.g., mangroves and coral reefs, with additional consequences for fisheries and tourism.”
“The projection that sea-level rise could increase flooding, particularly on the coasts of eastern Africa, will have implications for health.”
“The cost of adaptation to sea-level rise could amount to at least 5-10% of gross domestic product”
7) We don’t really know what sustainable development is
The private sector and academia
What is the role of the private sector?
What is the role of academia?
Research & Education?
or
Impact?
The valley of death
But there’s some good news…
Deployment of commercial capital is growing
New technologies are enabling new paradigms in delivery and distribution
Key characteristicsKey characteristicsFacilityFacilityInfrastructure levelInfrastructure level
Level 0
Level 1
Level 2
Level 4
Level 3
• Variable level of sophistication
• Better-equipped hospitals typically private, serving wealthier clients
• Small, off-grid buildings
• Rudimentary equipment
• Health workers have limited training
• Makeshift structures, used for vaccine campaigns, etc.
• Equipment usually brought by health workers
Health posts/Community outreach
Health centers, clinics
District hospitals
National hospital
Provincial hospital
3,100
10,400
15,500
70,100
374,600
LMIC LocationsLMIC Locations
Our thinking is becoming increasingly sophisticated with systems replacing single-solution products
Point-source solutionPoint-source solution Electricity as a serviceElectricity as a service Appropriate infrastructureAppropriate infrastructure
Institute for Globally Transformative Technologies at the Lawrence Berkeley National Lab