50,000,000.00

714285.7143

Long term (3 to 6 Months)

“

”

● World Bank approves $1-bn emergency fund for India

IFA GLOBAL TREASURY RESEARCH ACADEMY| www.ifaglobal.net |

● Japan service sector activity slumps most in a decade as virus impact spreads

● U.S. weekly jobless claims blow past 6 million as coronavirus lockdowns spread

US jobs data in focus today

after jobless claims rose to

record highs last week

● US death toll crosses 5K, sees highest single-day toll of 1,000

Mr. Abhishek Goenka

US jobless claims doubled from last week to a record of 6.65mn. The Focus today will

be on the March payroll data due today. The Headline number is expected to come in

at -100k. The unemployment rate in the US could tick to as high as 10% by April or

May.

After US Feds aggressive rate cut to 0% and commitment to unlimited bond buying

the US has become a funding currency. For example earlier people used to borrow in

EUR and pay the EURUSD basis and invest in USD. Now it is the other way around,

borrowing in USD, receiving the EURUSD basis and investing in Euro gives a positive

yield.

Crude saw a massive, short squeeze of nearly 30% yesterday as President Trump

claimed to broker a truce on crude production between Saudi and Russian heads of

states. However, the spike was shortlived as Putin spokesperson later clarified that

Putin had not spoken to the crown prince of Saudi.

The government not hiking the FPI limit in individual stocks to the respective sectoral

FDI caps resulted in India's weight staying the same in the MSCI EM index. The market

was expecting the government to increase the limits from 1st April and this could

have resulted in passive flows to the tune of USD 2.5bn. The stock market reacted

negatively to this and shed 4% on Wednesday. USDINR also traded higher in NDF on

account of the same.

Likely range for the USDINR is 75.60-76.20.

Strategy: Exporters are advised to cover 1 month exposure through Risk Reversal

option Strategy. Importers are go advised to go for back to back hedging. The 3M

range for USDINR is 73.00 - 77.00 and the 6M range is 72.0 – 78.00 considering panic

situation amid covid-19 spread.

IFA Dollar- Rupee Sentiment Index

From CEO's Desk

Medium term (Upto 3 Months) Intraday

Note: The above outlook is based on IFA Global Research Academy Proprietary ("IFA Dollar - Rupee Sentiment Index") based on various

techno-fundamental factors relevant to the particular outlook horizon. The index weights have been arrived at after rigorous back

testing. The factors which are considered for computation of barometers includes pre-defined and back tested weightage given to

fundamental factors such as economic data, FII flows, Global equity markets, Government & RBI activity, Onshore-offshore activity, other

peer currency performance and other macro economic factors. Further, this module also considers factors such as major MPC member's

speech, meeting or summit. On the technical front, factors include indicators and oscillators such as RSI, stochastic, combination of

moving averages and other basic & advance technical studies. (0 - 20%=extremely bearish, 21% - 40%=bearish, 41% - 60%=neutral, 61% -

80%=bullish, 81% - 100% extremely bullish)

News On The Street

86% 76% 75%

● Crude oil posts biggest one-day gains after Trump touts Saudi-Russia oil deal

“USDINR

$ INDEX

EURUSD

GBPUSD

USDJPY

AUDUSD

GOLD

”

97.00- 100.00

1.1600-1.2600 ↓ 1.2800-1.3800

0.6500- 0.7000

95.00- 100.00 ↓

After another failed attempt to cross 1.2500 mark, GBPUSD pair

dipped back below 1.2400. The dollar responded positively after US

President's deliberate efforts to save the Shale oil industry from

complete devastation. Going forward, UK coronavirus deaths statistics

keep worsening and offer no explanation for the moves in Sterling.

The rally in EURUSD pair appears to have met a strong resistance

around 1.1150 level, sparking the ongoing corrective downside.

Yesterday, the pair lost 150 pips to close at 1.0830. Coronavirus

contagion keeps rising in Italy and Spain adding further pressure on

the currency. Data wise, EU PPI data contracted by 0.6% MoM and

1.3% YoY.

● USDJPY (RANGE- 107.40 - 108.40)

Q2 FY 2020-21

● EURUSD (RANGE- 1.0790 - 1.0890)

106.50-111.00 ↓

April 3, 2020

FX Outlook for the day

● USDINR (RANGE- 75.60 - 76.20)

The US dollar initially tried to rally during the trading session against

the Yen, but as the initial jobless claims came out worst then

anticipated, the US dollar got hit against the safety of the Japanese

yen. Mounting fears over the economic fallout from the coronavirus

pandemic and fall in US Treasury bond yields capped further gains in

the pair.

USDINR pair continues its bullish momentum, currently trading around

76.00 mark. The manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for

India slowed to 51.8 in March from 54.5 in February. Dip in the new

export orders and weak global demand due to wide spreading of

coronavirus pandemic majorly contributed to the fall. Goods and

services tax (GST) collection fell to ₹97,597 crore in March.

Q1 FY 2020-21

71.00-76.00 ↑

0.6800- 0.7500

1.1800-1.2500 ↓

0.5800-0.6300 ↓ 0.6450- 0.7100

95.00- 100.00 ↓

102.00-108.00 105.00-110.00

1.0600-1.1200

72.50 - 77.00 ↑72.00-78.00 ↑

1.1000-1.1650 ↑

$1500- $1750 ↑

IFA GLOBAL TREASURY RESEARCH ACADEMY| www.ifaglobal.net |

Investors will

continue to sell

emerging-market

assets and swap the

proceeds into the

global reserve

currency (US dollar)

73.00-77.00 ↑

106.00-111.00 ↓

1.1200-1.1800 ↑

Q4 FY 2019-20

DAILY CURRENCY INSIGHT

● GBPUSD (RANGE- 1.2320 -1.2420)

IFA Outlook

Q3 FY 2020-21

1.2800-1.3800

98.50- 101.00 ↑

$1500- $1700 ↑

1.0700-1.1250 ↓

$1450- $1800 ↑ $1450- $1800 ↑

“

”

“

”

“

”

● FII activity against USDINR and Nifty

April 3, 2020

Highest OI for Call

and Put stands at

74.00. Highest OI

buildup is seen at

77.00 Put and

unwinding at 76.00

Call

IFA GLOBAL TREASURY RESEARCH ACADEMY| www.ifaglobal.net |

● USDINR Open Interest (April Expiry )

Chart of the Day

The USDINR pair opened higher today and is currently

hovering at 76.00 mark. Major resistance for the pair

stands in the range of 76.30 – 76.40. Overall bullish

bias remains intact for the near term. On the flipside,

75.60 should act as immediate support.

FIIs have so far

withdrawn $14.31

billion in the

calendar year 2020

USDINR Spot 76.03

DAILY CURRENCY INSIGHT

Activity Kurtosis

LIBOR ON 1M 6M 1Y MONTH 1M 3M 1Y 2Y

USD 0.08 0.98 1.20 1.06 USDINR 0.22 0.71 2.92 6.93

EUR -0.56 -0.39 -0.18 -0.16 EURINR 0.30 1.00 4.06 7.98

JPY 0.03 -0.06 0.01 0.12 GBPINR 0.29 0.98 3.81 7.48

JPYINR 0.26 0.87 3.46 6.93

REGION LAST % CHANGE LAST CHANGE % CHANGE

ASIA 23100.00 -0.77 1635.00 -2.70 -0.17

2771.00 -0.35 14.64 -0.01 -0.10

17867.00 0.27 24.20 -1.13 -4.46

INDIA 28072.00 -0.68 100.16 -0.02 -0.02

8198.00 -0.68 100.97 -0.01 -0.01

EUROPE 4235.00 0.73

9528.00 -0.61 FY 2019-20 CY 2020 31-Mar-20

5437.00 0.40 6,153 -48,030 -3,625

US 21072.00 -0.94 -41,379 -62,596 -1,802

7573.00 -0.70 7,698 2,351 -2

-27,528 -108,275 -5,428

“ Pivot S2 S1 P R1 R2

USDINR 75.55 75.79 76.05 76.28 76.51

EURINR 81.61 81.88 82.18 82.47 82.93

GBPINR 93.51 93.80 94.21 94.61 94.88

JPYINR 69.80 70.18 70.48 70.68 71.10

”

Currency Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact

31-Mar GBP 11:30 AM 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% NEUTRAL

EUR 1:25 PM 1K 29K -10K BULLISH

EUR 2:30 PM 0.7% 0.8% 1.2% BEARISH

USD 7:30 PM 120.0 110.0 132.6 BULLISH

3-Apr EUR 1:25 PM 34.3 34.5

GBP 2:00 PM 34.8 35.7

USD 6:00 PM -100K 273K

Rolling Forward Premiums

Nonfarm Payrolls (Mar)

CPI (YoY) (Mar)

Major Global Events

Macro Monitor

TOTAL

EQUITY

Services PMI (Mar)

GDP (QoQ) (Q4)

German Unemployment Change (Mar)

EURINR pair is expected to face hurdle at

82.47 (R1 level)

DEBT

Dollar INDEX

LIBOR Rates

IFA GLOBAL TREASURY RESEARCH ACADEMY| www.ifaglobal.net |

Figures are in INR Crores

Bloomberg ADXY

GOLD ($/ounce)HANG SENG

NIFTY

WTI CRUDE ($/brl)

SHANGHAI

COMMODITIES/DI

DAILY CURRENCY INSIGHT

Major Global Rates

SILVER ($/ounce)

HYBRID

April 3, 2020

Quick Glance

CAC

FPI INFLOWS

SENSEX

NIKKEI

German Services PMI (Mar)

GLOBAL INDICES

DAX

FTSE

DOW

CB Consumer Confidence (Mar)

Pivot Points

NASDAQ

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does not constitute a recommendation to sell and/or buy any financial products and is not to be considered as a solicitation and/or an offer to enter into any transaction. This document is a piece of economic research and is not

intended to constitute investment advice, nor to solicit dealing in securities or in any other kind of investments. Although every investment involves some degree of risk, the risk of loss trading off-exchange forex contracts can be

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for individual securities or other instruments.

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