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5. Impacts of public spending on Chinese food economy

Public spending affects various aspects of the general economy and food economy. The extensive results covering in production, consumption, trade, and price respectively. The impacts of increased public spending on general economy, food production, trade, price, and the economy and grain production are also compared.

5.1 Macroeconomic effects

Agricultural production generates forward production linkages when agricultural outputs are supplied as inputs to non-agricultural production. Baseline average annual growth rates of GDP and compared investments in agricultural R&D and irrigation promote agricultural development. In the agricultural R&D and irrigation scenarios, the growth rates of agricultural GDP are growth rates are increased by 0.1 and 0.02 percent points, respectively household consumption and reducing the CPI. Irrigation investment has the largest

5.2 Impacts on food production

Chinas total food production reached approximately 500 MMT in 2007, and in public spending scenarios, food production will increase during the period of 2007-2020, and the simulation in the baseline, total grain production will reach to 578 MMT in 2020. Grain production will increase by 0.3 percent under agricultural subsidies, 1.1 percent under agricultural R&D, and 5 percent under irrigation. Total grain production and per capita grain production will reach about 600MMT and total meat production will reach

111MMT in 2020 under the baseline, total meat production will increase by about 0.4 percent under agricultural R&D and 1.2 percent under irrigation Among the three types of public spending, irrigation increases food production the most, while R&D has the second largest impact on grain production. 5.3 Impacts on trade and food self-sufficiency

Self-sufficiency objectives, and the grain self-sufficiency rate was kept at 95 percent.

The self-sufficiency rates of four main the baseline simulation showed that self-sufficiency rates of four grain products will drop to less than 90 percent in 2020. The large drops on the grain self-sufficiency rates are likely due to small country assumption adopted in our DCGE China model grain prices due to the reduced grain output in China still different indirect impacts of various public spending on self-sufficiency rates. The results indicate that grain self-sufficiency will be improved by 0.3 percentage self-sufficiency rate. 5.4 Impacts on food price

increased by 75 million (FAO, 2008). As a result, the China DCGE model shows that most food prices will increase annually. The annual average growth rates of rice, wheat and maize prices production but reduce the price growth by about 0.1 and 0.3 percent, respectively.5.5 Simulated impacts on household income

The distributional impacts of increasing public spending on the income of various most rural households income increase, while urban households lose under the subsidy scenario. Increased R&D investment can improve agricultural productivity and increase food production. Increased food production will reduce the price investment. Rural households will gain from improved productivity, while urban households will benefit from cheaper food. irrigation scenarios, while urban households gain because of the lower food prices.

5.6 Efficiency of public spending

The economy and assess the effects on grain production with respect to investments in agricultural R&D and irrigation. Agricultural R&D has the higher economic return rate of return and the larger effect on grain production. If investment is increased by 1,000 , about 232 and 1.3 kg grain production will be increased annually. Irrigation investment has the lower economic rate of return and the smaller effects on grain production. If investment on irrigation is increased by 1,000 the return is about 149 and 0.8 kg grain production annually.

5.7 Sensitivity analysis

Parameters include all kinds of elasticitys, such as trade elasticity and production elasticity macro economy effects, food production, food self-sufficiency rate, food price, and return of investment. Through comparing the results of higher and lower elasticity we can find that results change with any change in an elasticity, higher elasticity with larger shocks, and lower elasticity with smaller shocks. the change of elasticity have little effects to macro indicators of economy, food price, and food self-sufficiency, indicators of the economy, but have modest effects on agricultural GDP and food production, especially on the return to economy and food production. from 19 to 27 percent, and the effect to grain production is between 1.1 and 1.6 kg/1000.

Translated version of 5.doc

5.Kesan perbelanjaan awam ke atas ekonomi makanan CinaPerbelanjaan awam memberi kesan kepada pelbagai aspek ekonomi am dan ekonomi makanan.Yangkeputusan yang meluas yang meliputi pengeluaran, penggunaan, perdagangan, harga dan masing-masing.Kesanpeningkatan perbelanjaan awam mengenai ekonomi am, pengeluaran makanan, perdagangan harga, danekonomi dan pengeluaran bijirin juga dibandingkan.5.1 kesan MakroekonomiPengeluaran pertanian menjana hubungan pengeluaran hadapan apabila pertanianoutput dibekalkan sebagai input kepada pengeluaran bukan pertanian.Baseline kadar purata pertumbuhan tahunan KDNK dan c omparedpelaburan dalam pertanian R & D dan pengairan menggalakkan pembangunan pertanian.Dalampertanian R & D dan senario pengairan, kadar pertumbuhan KDNK pertaniankadar pertumbuhan meningkat sebanyak 0.1 dan 0,0 2 mata peratus, masing-masing penggunaan isi rumah dan mengurangkan IHP.Pelaburan pengairan yang terbesar5.2 Impak terhadap pengeluaran makananJumlah pengeluaran bahan makanan China mencapai lebih kurang 500 MMT pada tahun 2007, dan i n perbelanjaan awamsenario, pengeluaran makanan akan meningkat sepanjang tempoh 2007-2020, dan simulasi i n baseline, bijirin jumlahpengeluaran akan mencapai 578 MMT pada 2020.Pengeluaran bijirin akan meningkat sebanyak 0.3 peratusdi bawah subsidi pertanian, 1.1 peratus di bawah pertanian R & D, dan 5 peratus di bawahpengairan.Jumlah pengeluaran bijirin dan gandum per kapita pengeluaran akan mencapai tentang 600MMT dan pengeluaran daging umlah akan mencapai111MMTpada 2020di bawahminimum, jumlahdagingpengeluaranakan bertambaholehkira-kira 0.4 peratusdi bawah R & D pertanian dan 1.2 peratus di bawah pengairan Antara tiga jenis awamperbelanjaan, pengairan meningkatkan pengeluaran makanan yang paling, manakala R & D mempunyai kedua terbesarkesan ke atas pengeluaran bijirin.5.3 Impak terhadap perdagangan dan makanan sara diriSara diri objektif, dan bijian kadar sara diri berjaya dikekalkan pada 95 peratus.Kadar sara diri empat t utama beliau baseline simulasi menunjukkan bahawasara diri kadar empat produk bijirin akan jatuh kepada kurang daripada 90 peratus pada tahun 2020.Yangtitis besar pada bijirin kadar sara diri adalah mungkin disebabkan andaian negara yang kecildopted di China DCGE harga bijirin model kerana keluaran bijirin yang dikurangkan di China masih berbeza impak tidak langsung pelbagai perbelanjaan awam pada kadar sara diri.Keputusan menunjukkan bahawa biji-bijian sara diri akan meningkat sebanyak 0.3 peratuskadar sara diri.5.4 Impak terhadap harga makananmeningkat sebanyak 75 juta (FAO, 2008).Hasilnya, model China DCGE menunjukkan bahawa kebanyakan harga makanan akanmeningkat setiap tahun.Kadar pertumbuhan tahunan purata harga beras, gandum dan jagungpengeluaran tetapi mengurangkan pertumbuhan harga oleh kira-kira 0.1 dan 0.3 peratus, masing-masing.5.5 impak simulasi ke atas pendapatan isi rumahKesan pengagihan meningkatkan perbelanjaan awam ke atas pendapatan peningkatan pendapatan pelbagai m os isi rumah luar bandar,manakala isi rumah bandar kehilangan di bawah senario subsidi.Peningkatan pelaburan R & Ddapat meningkatkan produktiviti pertanian dan meningkatkan pengeluaran makanan.Peningkatan Anu d pengeluaran w sakit mengurangkan pelaburan harga.Isirumah luar bandar akan mendapat manfaat daripada peningkatan produktiviti, manakala bandarisi rumah akan mendapat manfaat daripada makanan yang lebih murah.senario pengairan, manakala isi rumah bandar mendapat manfaat kerana harga makanan yang lebih rendah.5.6 Kecekapan perbelanjaan awamEkonomi dan menilai kesan ke atas pengeluaran bijirin dengan merujuk kepada pelaburan dalam pertanian R & D dan pengairan.Pertanian R & D mempunyai kadar pulangan yang lebih tinggi pulangan ekonomi dankesan yang lebih besar pada pengeluaran bijirin.Jika pelaburan meningkat sebanyak 1,000 , kira-kira 232 dan 1.3 kg bijirin pengeluaran akan meningkat setiap tahun.Pelaburan pengairan mempunyaimenurunkan kadar pulangan ekonomi dan kesan yang lebih kecil pada pengeluaran bijirin.Sekiranya pelaburanpada pengairan meningkat sebanyak 1.000 penyata itu adalah kira-kira 149 dan 0.8 kg bijirinpengeluaran setiap tahun.5.7 Kepekaan analisisParameter termasuk semua jenis keanjalan ini, seperti keanjalan perdagangan dan pengeluaran kesan keanjalan ekonomi makro, pengeluaran makanan, makanan kadar sara diri, harga makanan, danpulangan pelaburan.Melalui membandingkan keputusan keanjalan yang lebih tinggi dan lebih rendahkita boleh mendapati bahawa perubahan hasil dengan apa-apa perubahan dalam keanjalan, keanjalan yang lebih tinggidengan kejutan yang lebih besar, dan keanjalan yang lebih rendah dengan kejutan kecil.perubahan keanjalan mempunyai kesan yang sedikit kepada penunjuk makro ekonomi, harga makanan,dan makanan sara diri, petunjuk ekonomi, tetapi mempunyai kesan yang sederhanaKDNK pertanian dan pengeluaran makanan, terutamanya mengenai pulangan kepada ekonomi dan makananpengeluaran.dari 19 hingga 27 peratus, dan kesan kepada pengeluaran bijirin adalah antara 1,1 dan1,6 kg/1000 .