1

貿易與經濟發展

TRADE AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTTodaro, Chapters 12-13Perkins, Chapters 19

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Trade Theory and Development Experience

Todaro Ch. 12

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緒論 Introduction

本講討論發展中國家 (LDCs or LDC-less developed countries)對外貿易政策和經濟發展議題，包括外貿如何影響經濟成長和所得分配，外貿是否促使一個國家達到發展目標， LDCs是否應追求對外導向或對內導向的外貿政策，或兩者兼具。

每個國家情況不同，不能一概而定。

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5

雁行理論

以日本為首，東亞四小龍等國家為輔。 在日本之後，其他國家有如大雁成兩三排向前隨著飛行。

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The Importance of International Trade and Finance國際貿易和金融的重要性 Many LDCs rely heavily on exports (usually primary products)

Many LDCs also rely heavily on imports (typically of machinery, capital goods, intermediate producer goods, and consumer products)

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Five Basic Questions about Trade and Development How does international trade affect economic growth?

How does trade alter the distribution of income?

How can trade promote development? Can LDCs determine how much they trade?

Is an outward-looking or an inward-looking trade policy best?

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貿易對發展的重要性

LDCs出口趨勢和型態。 出口的重要性 需求彈性和出口盈餘不穩定性

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The Importance of Trade for Development: A Statistical Review

LDC exports: trends and patterns

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Table 12.1

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12

Table 12.2

13

全世界出口值 1949-2000 US B)（ ＄

0.000

2000.000

4000.000

6000.000

8000.000

全世界

14

1950-1999 US大陸、台灣、香港、新加坡出口（ ）（B＄ ）

0.000

50.000

100.000

150.000

200.000

250.000

1950

1954

1958

1962

1966

1970

1974

1978

1982

1986

1990

1994

1998

大陸台灣香港新加坡

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主要國家出口趨勢(1950-2003)

0.000

200.000

400.000

600.000

800.000

1000.000

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000U

S$Bi

llion

日本 大陸 台灣 美國 德國

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Merchandise Manufactures

exports

$ millions % of total

1990 2001 1990 2001United States 393,592 730,803 74 82Germany 421,100 570,791 89 86Japan 287,581 403,496 96 93France 216,588 321,843 77 82United Kingdom 185,172 273,086 79 80China * 62,091 266,155 72 89Canada 127,629 259,858 59 62Italy 170,304 241,134 88 88Netherlands 131,775 229,464 59 70 Hong Kong, China b 82,390 191,066 95 95Belgium a 117,703 189,624 77 79Mexico 40,711 158,547 43 85Korea, Rep. 65,016 150,439 94 91* Data for Taiw an, China 67,079 122,505 93 94Singapore b 52,730 121,751 72 85Spain 55,642 109,681 75 78

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Fuel Export CountriesMerchandise Fuels Manufactures

exports

$ millions % of total % of total

1990 2001 1990 2001 1990 2001Nigeria 13,596 19,150 97 100 1 0Algeria 12,930 20,050 96 97 3 2Azerbaijan .. 2,315 .. 91 .. 4Saudi Arabia 44,417 68,200 92 90 7 9Iran, Islamic Rep. 19,305 25,270 .. 84 .. 10Gabon 2,204 2,626 .. 83 .. 2Venezuela, RB 17,497 27,409 80 83 10 11Turkmenistan .. 2,620 .. 81 .. 7Oman 5,508 11,074 92 81 5 12Kuw ait 7,042 16,142 93 79 6 20Syrian Arab Republic 4,212 4,490 45 76 36 8Norw ay 34,047 57,856 48 62 33 21Kazakhstan .. 8,645 .. 54 .. 20Russian Federation .. 103,100 .. 54 .. 22Cameroon 2,002 1,749 50 52 9 5

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Merchandise Manufactures

imports

$ millions % of total

1990 2001 1990 2001United States 516,987 1,180,154 73 77 Germany 355,686 492,825 72 70 Japan 235,368 349,089 44 57 United Kingdom 222,977 331,793 75 79 France 234,436 325,752 74 78 China 53,345 243,613 80 78 Italy 181,968 232,910 64 70 Canada 123,244 227,165 81 83 Netherlands 126,098 207,284 71 74 Hong Kong, China 84,725 202,008 85 91 Belgium a 119,702 180,660 68 77 Mexico 43,548 176,162 75 88 Spain 87,715 142,740 71 73 Korea, Rep. 69,844 141,098 63 61 Singapore 60,774 116,000 73 81 * Data for Taiwan, China 54,831 107,274 69 76 Switzerland 69,681 84,077 84 82

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投資與儲蓄關係 Y=C+I+X-M =GC+PC+GI+PI+X-M PS=Y-GR-PC 私人儲蓄 , GR=Govt

revenue 政府收入 GS=GR-GC政府經常帳餘額 I=PI+GI=GS+PS+(M-X)=GS+PS+FS FS=(PI-PS)+(GI-GS) 貿易赤字＝民間超額投資＋政府總赤字（政府超額投資）

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21

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The Importance of Trade for Development: A Statistical Review

LDC exports: trends and patterns

Importance of exports to different developing nations

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Figure 12.3

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The Importance of Trade for Development: A Statistical Review

LDC exports: trends and patterns

Importance of exports to different developing nations

Demand elasticities and export earnings instability

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The Terms of Trade and the Prebisch-Singer Thesis Total export earnings depend on:

– total volume of exports sold AND– price paid for exports

Prebisch and Singer argue that export prices fall over time, so LDCs lose revenue unless they can continually increase export volumes

Prebisch and Singer think LDCs need to avoid a dependence on primary exports

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貿易條件 Terms of Trade (TOT)

XPI/MPI 出口價格指數 /進口價格指數 100 103 107 109 100/100 103/100 109/102 120/109 以上例子， TOT改善，對出口有利 XPI/MPI 100 98 95 90 94 87 以上例子， TOT惡化，對出口不利

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The Traditional Theory of International Trade The principle of comparative advantage

Relative factor endowments and international specialization: the Neoclassical model

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The Traditional Theory of International Trade The principle of comparative advantage比較利益理論

Relative factor endowments and international specialization: the Neoclassical model新古典模型

Trade theory and development: the traditional arguments 傳統看法

＊中國經濟崛起後對國際貿易理論的衝擊

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Some Criticisms of Traditional Free-Trade Theory in the Context of Third World Experience

Six assumptions of the Neoclassical model must be scrutinized:– Fixed resources, full employment, and international factor immobility

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Some Criticisms of Traditional Free-Trade Theory in the Context of Third World Experience

Six assumptions of the Neoclassical model must be scrutinized:– Fixed resources, full employment, and international factor immobility

– Fixed, freely available technology and consumer sovereignty

– Internal factor mobility and perfect competition

– Governmental non-interference in trade

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Some Criticisms of Traditional Free-Trade Theory in the Context of Third World Experience

Six assumptions of the Neoclassical model must be scrutinized:– Balanced trade and international price adjustments

– Trade gains accruing to nationals

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Some Conclusions on Trade and Economic Development Trade can lead to rapid economic growth under some circumstances

Trade seems to reinforce existing income inequalities

Trade can benefit LDCs if they can extract trade concessions from developed countries

LDCs generally must trade Regional cooperation may help LDCs

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Concepts for Review

Absolute advantage Balanced trade Barter transactions Capital account Collective self-reliance

Collusion Commodity terms of trade

Comparative advantage

Current account Enclave economies Export dependence Export earnings instability

Factor endowment trade theory

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Concepts for Review, cont’d Factor mobility Factor-price equalization

Foreign-exchange earnings

Free trade Gains from trade Growth poles

Income elasticity of demand

Income terms of trade

Increasing returns Industrial policy Merchandise trade balance

Monopolistic market control

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Concepts for Review, cont’d North-south trade models

Oligopolistic market control

Prebisch-Singer thesis

Price elasticity of demand

Primary products

Product cycle Product differentiation

Quotas Regional trading blocks

Returns to scale Risk Specialization

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Concepts for Review, cont’d Subsidies Synthetic substitutes

Tariffs Trade deficits

Uncertainty Vent-for-surplus theory of international trade

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The Trade Policy Debate: Export Promotion, Import Substitution, and Economic Integration Todaro Chapter 13

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Trade Strategies for Development: Export Promotion versus Import Substitution Export promotion: looking outward and seeing trade barriers– primary-commodity export expansion

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Trade Strategies for Development: Export Promotion versus Import Substitution Export promotion: looking outward and seeing trade barriers– primary-commodity export expansion– expanding manufactured good exports

Import substitution: looking inward but still paying outward– tariffs, infant industries, and protection

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Trade Strategies for Development: Export Promotion versus Import Substitution The IS industrialization strategy and results

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Nominal Rate of Protection

p

ppt

The nominal tariff rate, t, is

Wherep’ is the tariff-inclusive pricep is the free trade price

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Effective Rate of Protection

v

vvg

The effective tariff rate, g, is

Wherev’ is the value added per unit of output,inclusive of the tariffv is the value added per unit of outputunder free trade

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Trade Strategies for Development: Export Promotion versus Import Substitution The IS industrialization strategy and results

Foreign-exchange rates, exchange controls, and the devaluation decision

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Summary and Conclusions: Trade Optimists and Trade Pessimists Trade pessimist arguments Trade optimist arguments

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Reconciling the Arguments: The Data and Consensus Neither the trade optimists nor the trade pessimists are always right

There are many factors that determine whether trade is good or bad for a country

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South-South Trade and Economic Integration: Looking Outward and Inward The growth of trade among developing countries

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South-South Trade and Economic Integration: Looking Outward and Inward The growth of trade among developing countries

Economic integration: theory and practice

Regional trading blocks and the globalization of trade

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Table 13.2

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South-South Trade and Economic Integration: Looking Outward and Inward The growth of trade among developing countries

Economic integration: theory and practice

Regional trading blocks and the globalization of trade

Rich-nation tariff and nontariff trade barriers and the 1995 Uruguay Round

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South-South Trade and Economic Integration: Looking Outward and Inward, cont’d The problem of adjustment assistance

Domestic economic policies

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Trade Policies of Developed Countries: the Need for Reform Rich-nation tariff and nontariff trade

barriers and the 1995 Uruguay Round (see figure 13.3 for quantitative impact )

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Figure 13.3

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Trade Policies of Developed Countries: the Need for Reform Rich-nation tariff and nontariff trade

barriers and the 1995 Uruguay Round WTO—1995 Doha Round—2001

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Concepts for Review

Adjustment assistance Autarchy Common market Customs union Depreciation Devaluation Dual exchange rate Doha Development

Agenda

Economic integration Economic Union Effective rate of

protection Exchange control Exchange rate Export promotion Flexible exchange

rate

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Concepts for Review (cont’d)

Free-market exchange rate

General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT)

Globalization Import substitution Infant industry International commodity

agreements

Inward-looking development policies

Multi-Fiber Arrangement (MFA)

New protectionism Nominal rate of

protection Nontariff trade barriers

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Concepts for Review (cont’d)

Official exchange rate Outward-looking

development policies Overvalued exchange

rate Parallel exchange

rate Quotas Regional trading bloc

Rent seeking Synthetic substitutes Tariffs Trade creation Trade diversion Trade liberalization Trade optimists Trade pessimists

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Concepts for Review (cont’d)

Uruguay Round Value added

Wage-price spiral World Trade

Organization (WTO)