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  • SOUTH AFRICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION

    58TH ANNUAL CONFERENCE OF THE

    SOUTH AFRICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION

    PROGRAMME AND ABSTRACTS

    28th November to 1st December 2016

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    CONTENTS

    Welcome Page 4 Sponsors Page 5 General Information Page 6 Vanue Layout Page 10 Map Page 11 Programme at a Glance Page 12 Workshops Page 14 Detailed Programme Page 18 Poster Sessions Page 30 Abstracts - Plenary Speakers Page 32 Abstracts - Invited Speakers Page 36 Abstracts - Contributed Papers Page 39 Abstracts - Poster Sessions Page 215 List of Delegates Page 247

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    WELCOME TO THE CONFERENCE

    Dear conference delegate

    We welcome you to the 58th annual conference of the South African Statistical Association. The photograph on the cover of this conference program and abstract booklet was taken on a morning during the week of the 19th September while we were all making our way by foot up the hill to campus, having parked our cars somewhere near Main Road since protesting students had blocked the entrances to campus. The dark sky and clouds are symbolic of what was to come during the next six weeks when both on our campus and many campuses around the country, students and staff were at odds with one another over fee and cultural issues that brought violence and destruction to these campuses. One consequence of this was that we had to move this conference to an off campus venue and while we are pleased that the River Club could accommodate us, we are also sad that we could not host you on our beautiful campus at the foot of Table Mountain.

    However, the rainbow on this cover photograph can be seen as a sign of hope and optimism and we are pleased that we have over 350 delegates attending this conference coming from both academia and industry to share their work and ideas in the areas of Statistics and Data Science. We have an exciting group of international visitors from whom we hope to learn about the latest developments in Statistical Learning for Data Science, Correspondence Analysis, Statistical Ecology, Astronomy, Computational Developments in High Dimensional Models and Change Point Analysis. We thank our sponsors for their generous support. We hope that you will enjoy your time at the conference and your visit to Cape Town.

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    SPONSORS

    www.sas.com www.wits.ac.za/coe-mass graduate.standardbank.com

    www.jamesralph.com

    ipc2017capetown.iussp.org

    www.quintiles.com

    www.oxford.co.za

    www.cengage.co.uk

    www.olsps.com/predictive -analytics/

    www.wiley.com www.quantec.co.za

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    GENERAL INFORMATION

    Registration

    The registration desk is situated at the River Club reception, main entrance, ground floor and will be open: on Monday 28 Nov from 08h00 – 17h00 and on Tues 29 Nov – Thurs 1 Dec from 08h00 – 16h00.

    WiFi

    Delegates can connect to the River Club WiFi. There is no code.

    Parking

    Free secure parking is available at the River club.

    Name tags

    Delegates should wear their name tags at all times to gain access to the lecture halls, lunch venue and evening functions.

    Tickets

    Tickets will be issued for the welcome function, young statistician’s pub quiz with drink vouchers and conference dinner. Please make sure you have these tickets on hand as they will give you access to these events.

    Optional walk in Kirstenbosch gardens

    Delegates who would like to take part in the walk in Kirstenbosch gardens on Wednesday 30 November from 18h00 -19h00 need to sign up at the registration desk on Monday 28 and Tuesday 29 November. Delegates are to meet at the entrance to Moyo, Kirstenbosch at 18h00 in order to gain access to the Kirstenbosch gardens via the restaurant at no extra cost. If delegates wish to access the Kirstenbosch Gardens before 18h00 they will need to pay the R 60 p person fee at the Kirstenbosch entrance.

    Poster sessions

    Posters have been allocated to one of three sessions (see pages 30 and 31). Posters will be displayed for the duration of the day your session is scheduled. Prestik and double-sided tape will be available from the registration desk. Posters should be up by 09:00 on the day of the poster session and be removed by 19:00 on the same day. Poster presenters are asked to be at their poster for discussion at the following times:

    Poster session 1: 13:30 – 14:00 on Tuesday 29 November Poster session 2: 12:40 – 13:40 on 30 November Poster session 3: 12:30 – 13:30 on 1 December

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    GENERAL INFORMATION

    Social events

    The welcome function will take place at 17:00 on Monday 28 November in the Tugela room weather permitting, else in the Orange room on the first floor. Please check the signage on the day. Music will be provided by the Hout Bay Music Project, www.houtbaymusic.org.

    The young statistician’s burger evening and pub quiz will take place at 18:00 in Zambezi.

    The conference dinner is preceded by a walk in the Kirstenbosch gardens at 18:00 on Wednesday 30 November. Should you wish to attend the walk, please sign up at the registration desk before Tuesday 29 November. The dinner will take place at Moyo Kirstenbosch, Kirstenbosch National Botanical Garden, Rhodes Drive, Newlands at 19:00.

    Venues

    The conference takes place at The River Club, Liesbeek Parkway, Observatory. Tea, coffee and lunch will be served in the Orange room, first floor. The opening, plenary sessions and closing will take place in the Congo room, first floor. Parallel session will take place in the Congo room (first floor), Tugela, Berg, Club house, Zambezi and Kei on the ground floor. On Thursday 1 December there will also be parallel sessions in the Observatory auditorium.

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    GENERAL INFORMATION

    Meetings

    SASA Executive Committee meeting • Monday 28 November at 16:00 in Berg SASA Annual General meeting • Tuesday 29 November at 14:40 in the Congo room. Multivariate Data Analysis Group (MDAG) annual general meeting • Wednesday 30 November at 13:40 in Kei SUSAN-IBS and South Africa Region of the IBS meeting • Wednesday 30 November at 13:40 in Zambezi Industrial group meeting • Wednesday 30 November at 13:40 in Tugela Bayesian group meeting • Wednesday 30 November at 13:40 in Berg Data scientists group meeting • Wednesday 30 November at 13:40 in Congo

    SASA 2016 organising committee

    A/Prof Francesca Little (Chair) A/Prof Sugnet Lubbe Mr Neil Watson Mr Stefan Britz Mr Chun-Kai (Karl) Huang Mr Greg Distiller Ms Belinda Chapman (Conference organiser) Ms Roxanne Adams (Conference organiser) Dr Lizanne Raubenheimer, Rhodes Univ. (Finances)

    Guidelines to speakers and chairpersons

    Parallel talks are 15 minutes with 5 minutes for questions and changing venues.

    Speakers

    • Double check the date and time of your presentation. • Load your presentation on the computer before the start of the session. • Report to the chairperson of the session at least 5 min before the start of the session. • Keep to the time allocated for your presentation. • You are not allowed to move your presentation to any other time slot. • Laser pointers will be available in the venue. • Once the chair indicates the end of your session, you must stop your presentation immediately.

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    GENERAL INFORMATION

    Chairpersons

    • Double check the date and time of your session. • Keep to the scheduled times. • No changes are to be made to the programme. If a speaker does not show, please wait for the next time slot, do not move other speakers earlier. • Check the attendance of all the speakers, and ensure that all presentations have been loaded on the computer. • Welcome delegates and speakers at the beginning of your session. • Make the following announcements: o All cell phones to be switched off o State the programme for the session o Start with the first lecture • Use the cards available in the venue to indicate to speakers the last 5 min and last 2 min of their presentation. • Ask speakers to stop their presentation when the time is up. • Allow questions according to time. • Thank all speakers and delegates at the end of the session. • Report to the registration desk if a speaker was absent. • Report shortcomings to the session assistant.

    These are only guidelines. Please use your own initiative to make your session a success.

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    VENUE LAYOUT

    SLUG & LETTUCE

    PUB

    TUGELA ROOM

    TOILETS

    CLUB HOUSE

    TOILETS

    ENTRANCE ENTRANCE

    BERG ROOM

    ZAMBEZI ROOM

    KEI ROOM

    ORANGE ROOM

    CONGO ROOM

    ST

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