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Draft Agenda 5th Workshop on StrategicCrisis Management

Public Governance and Territorial Development Directorate

OECD High Level Risk Forum

5th Workshop on Strategic Crisis Management

12-13 May 2016

Geneva, Switzerland

Draft AGENDA

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Policy context Numerous crises in recent years have revealed the increasing complexity and interconnectedness of modern societies. Since 2012, the OECD / Swiss Federal Chancellery workshops on strategic crisis management have explored the capacities for adaptivity and inter-agency co-operation that governments need to help prepare for novel and unanticipated crises. The workshop series is an opportunity to share good practice in “transboundary cooperation” between governments, within governments and with the private sector, to forecast crises and to improve situation awareness. The outcomes of these workshops contribute to the implementation of the OECD Recommendation on the Governance of Critical Risks and specifically its 4th principle on crisis management.

This year’s workshop will examine how countries develop crisis communication and sense-making capacities. The capacity of a government to communicate effectively during crisis is key to successful management in the moment. It is also key for political leadership to “make meaning” of a crisis in the immediate aftermath to calm the situation and to shore-up trust in government. The workshop will bring together crisis managers to discuss good policies and effective practices in developing these two key capacities with a focus on international cooperation, the engagement of leaders and leveraging public/ private partnerships. In order to further develop the OECD network of strategic crisis managers the workshop will also include a group exercise on the identification of emerging and on-going crises. Participants will be invited to work together to apply a strategic crisis management methodology for a selection of scenarios. The workshop will provide a key contribution to the development of the High Level Risk Forum policy toolkit aimed at supporting the implementation of the Recommendation through identification of best practices and concrete country examples.

Background documents

• The Changing Face of Strategic Crisis Management, OECD, (2015).

• OECD Recommendation on the Governance of Critical Risks, OECD, (2014).

• Lavoix, H., From weak signals to crisis scenarios, OECD. • Knight, K., Communicating threats: the challenges of detecting and of warning leaders, OECD.

• OECD Paper: GOV/PGC/HLRF (2016)1 - Early crisis detection exercise: Scenario.

Registration

To register for the meeting please return the attached registration form to: Elisabeth.huggard@oecd.org

Additional Information

For more information on the workshop contact John.roche@oecd.org and Chiara.Schneider@bk.admin.ch

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Thursday 12 May 2016 09h00 – 09h30 Welcome coffee and tea 09h30 – 09h45 Introductory remarks

Mr. Andre Simonazzi, Vice-Chancellor, Swiss Confederation Mr. Stéphane Jacobzone, OECD

MORNING SESSION: Crisis-Communication

09h45 – 10h45 Keynote presentation:

Ms. Emine Etili Head of Twitter Public Policy, Turkey

Governments are adapting policies and practices to improve crisis communications in response to more complex and unexpected crises. The keynote presentation will highlight the advantages and challenges associated with the use of social media tools to enhance risk and crisis communication, and consider what new technologies imply for situation monitoring capacity and communication training needs. It will also provide lessons learned on how to manage expectations for two-way communication between the public and emergency services.

10h45 – 11h00 Coffee break 11h00 – 12h30 Crisis communication: lessons learned

This panel will present and discuss country practices in crisis communication, highlighting examples with an international dimension. A suite of short presentations will initiate a lively dialogue among the participants based on the list of questions below.

Speakers: Mr. Kelvin Berryman, General Manager Strategic Relationships, Natural Hazards Division, GNS Science, New Zealand Ms. Susan Monarez, Department of Homeland Security, United States

Moderator: Mr. Corrado Zana, Head of Business Resilience Practice, MRC Continental Europe

Questions for discussion: - What are examples of successful cooperation, partnerships and good practice

that exist between the public and private sectors in crisis communication? - - What practices in using social media in times of crisis has the private sector

found useful that could be transferred to public authorities? What are the human resources that would be needed to do this?

- - Are there benefits to establishing an international crisis communication

platform that would coordinate messaging between multiple public authorities and other actors?

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12h30 – 13h45 Lunch break AFTERNOON SESSION: Discussion of emerging and ongoing crises

Background paper: GOV/PGC/HLRF (2016)1: “Early crisis detection exercise” 13h45 – 14h00 Methodological introduction to “Crisis early-detection”

Dr. Nicolas Mueller, Swiss Federal Chancellery

14h00 – 15h00 Group identification of emerging and on-going crises The moderator will lead a group brainstorming of potential crises with the aim to reduce blind-spots and identify potential for synergies amongst crisis managers. The discussion will identify driving forces and key uncertainties, and select several crisis scenarios to develop further in smaller working groups. Moderator: Mr. John Tesh CBE

Kings College London 15h00 – 15h15 Coffee break 15h15 – 16h45 Working group exercise

Participants will be asked to work through one or more crisis scenarios and prepare a brief read-back to the larger group covering the following crisis management dimensions: - Sense-making and analysis - Short scenarios: How could the crisis develop? - Meaning making and strategic crisis communications - International cooperation

16h45 – 17h30 Presentation of working group results by group leaders 17h30 – 18h00 Plenary discussion 18h00 – 19h00 Cocktail reception

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Friday 13 May 2016 08h30 – 09h00 Welcome coffee and tea MORNING SESSION: Meaning making

09h00 – 09h45 Keynote presentation 3: Meaning making in crisis

Professor Paul t’Hart, Univ. of Utrecht, Netherlands

09h45 – 11h15 Meaning making in crisis: lessons learned

In the immediate aftermath of a crisis, it is key for political leadership not only to provide information, but also provide a narrative that responds to public expectations. This panel will present and discuss country practices in “meaning making”, highlighting lessons learned from examples involving multi-stakeholders and international dimensions. Short presentations will initiate a lively dialogue among the participants based on the list of questions below.

Speakers:

Dr. Annika Brändström, Deputy Director General / Head of the Crisis management coordination secretariat, Ministry of Justice, Sweden Mr. Peter Tallantire, Civil Contingencies Secretariat, Cabinet Office, United Kingdom

Moderator: Mr. Lars Hedstrom, Swedish Defence University Questions for discussion:

- In the immediate aftermath of a crisis how can government leaders communicate the most effective message to the public to reassure and re- build trust in the institutions of state?

- How can governments ensure the development of a narrative about a crisis that responds to public expectations?

- What are the examples of successfully reducing public and political

uncertainty in the aftermath of a crisis? 11h15 – 11h30 Coffee break 11h30 – 12h30 Keynote presentation 2: Crisis communications lessons from

Katrina and the Boston Bombings Professor Herman “Dutch” Leonard, Harvard Kennedy School 12h30 – 13h00 Conclusions, way forward and closure of workshop Dr. Nicolas Mueller, Swiss Federal Chancellery

Mr Stéphane Jacobzone OECD.

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Speaker Biographies

Mr. André Simonazzi Vice-Chancellor, Swiss Confederation

André Simonazzi was born in Monthey in the canton of Valais in 1968. He attended secondary school at the Collège de l’Abbaye in St. Maurice, obtaining a Latin and English baccalaureate in 1988. He studied international relations in Geneva at the Graduate Institute of International Relations, graduating in 1992. After his studies, André Simonazzi trained as a journalist at La Nouvelliste before joining the aid organisation, Caritas Switzerland, in 1995; there he held the post of spokesman for French-speaking Switzerland before becoming head of the information department. In 2004, he joined the Federal Department of the Environment, Transport, Energy and Communications (DETEC), initially as Deputy Head of the Information Service, then as Head. André Simonazzi was appointed Spokesman for the Federal Council on 12 November 2008 with effect from 1 April 2009.

Susan Coller-Monarez, Ph.D. Deputy Assistant Secretary for Strategy and Analysis Office of Policy, Department of Homeland Security

Dr. Susan Coller-Monarez is a globally recognized leader in today’s most active areas of homeland and national security. She currently serves as the Deputy Assistant Secretary for Strategy and Analysis in the Office of Policy at the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). Prior to moving into senior executive service at DHS, Dr. Coller-Monarez served at the White House as the Assistant Director for National Health Security and International Affairs in the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) and as the Director of Medical Preparedness Policy on the National Security Council (NSC). In both White House roles, she led multiple efforts to enhance the nation’s capabilities to prevent, respond, and recover from national security threats, both natural and manmade. Dr. Coller-Monarez has led the development of several Presidential-level national strategies, action plans, and policy directives related to domestic and global security, demonstrating strong leadership abilities to reach consensus both within the Federal government as well as among non-government stakeholders and the international community. Prior to her White House assignments, Dr. Coller-Monarez was the Chief of the Threat Characterization and Attribution Branch within Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and a Biodefense Policy Advisor within the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS). In each role, she was relied upon to develop and execute near- and long-term strategies for biodefense research and development. In addition to leadership roles within the Federal government, Dr. Coller-Monarez has been called upon to serve on numerous advisory panels to include at the National Academies of Science, the National Science Advisory Board for Biosecurity, and the Federal Experts Science Advisory Panel. Dr. Coller-Monarez has also served as the U.S. representative on several international CBRN defense cooperative initiatives including the Biological Weapons Convention and with the European Union, Canada, France, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom.

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Kelvin Berryman

General Manager Strategic Relationships, Natural Hazards Division, GNS Science NZ

Kelvin has worked for GNS Science and its predecessors for more than 40 years. In that time he has published extensively on geological aspects of earthquake and tsunami and on earthquake hazard and risk modeling. A feature of his career has been extensive engagement with engineers, planners, and policy makers on design of new structures, seismic safety assessment of infrastructure and disaster risk management. His research and applied science has been undertaken throughout New Zealand and extensively around the Pacific and Southeast Asia.

Until late 2015 Kelvin was the Director of the Natural Hazards Research Platform and in this role was one of the principal spokespersons during the Canterbury earthquake sequence. His Platform role included funding natural hazards research around New Zealand for national benefit, and facilitating the uptake of research results in planning and policy among stakeholders spanning the central and local government sector, infrastructure agencies, insurance, business, and community. He currently serves as NZ representative on the Governing Board of the GEM (global earthquake model) Foundation, is an elected Fellow of the NZ National Society for Earthquake Engineering, and has received the two principal awards of the NZ Geosciences Society. In 2012 he received a Queens Service Order for services to science and Canterbury earthquake recovery.

Ms. Emine Etili Head of Twitter Public Policy, Turkey

Emine is responsible for Public Policy for Turkey at Twitter. Her work centers on engagement with the Turkish government and regulators on relevant policy issues. Furthermore, she is responsible for developing programs with Turkish civil society to help them leverage the power of the platform. Emine came to Twitter from a varied background in the private, government and civil society sectors. With an interest in financial services she spent time both in the private sector conducting financial services research as well as at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in banking regulation. Subsequently, she headed up the American Business Forum in Turkey, an American Chamber of Commerce in Istanbul. She worked in consulting in the UAE and most recently managed external affairs at Endeavor Turkey, an organization focused on fostering high-impact entrepreneurship around the world. Emine earned a BA degree from the University of Virginia and an MA degree from Johns Hopkins University. She is @EmineEtili on Twitter.

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Mr. Corrado Zana Head of Business Resilience Practice, MRC Continental Europe

Corrado joined Marsh Risk Consulting in 2012 to start-up the cyber consulting practice in Italy. Previously he served as Lead Business Consultant for Nokia Consulting – Western Europe (2008-2012); BCM Practice Head within Marsh Risk Consulting Italy (1997-2007); Senior Risk Engineer in Zurich Insurance (1992-1996); Project Manager in Engineering Companies (1987-1991). During his stay at Nokia, he led the Risk Management consulting services, supporting the main telecommunication providers to manage their risks, at first in the technology quadrant. Once he joined MRC again in 2012, he holds the responsibility of Head of Italian IRM Practice (2012); Director of Italian Business Practices (2013-2014), Head of Business Continuity Management and IRM Practices for Continental Europe (2015). The Business Resilience practice supports organisations in defining and optimizing their Cyber Risk Management and Business Continuity Management programs, in order to assess the magnitude of financial impact of operational risks (at first Cyber/IT-related risk scenarios) and to design a suitable control strategy. Corrado has more than 25 years of experience in Risk Management, IT Risk, Risk Engineering and Business Continuity Management. During this period of time, Corrado led many projects for national and international companies, in Italy and abroad. Personal reference list includes IT/IRM Projects for T-Mobile NL, Cosmote Albania and Greece, Telefonica Venezuela, Vodafone Italia, Vodafone Greece, Nestle CH, Odeon UK, Repsol Spain, Arcelik TK, NTV Italia, Ferrovie dello Stato, Barilla Group, Batelco Bahrain, Marconi Mobile IT, CRIF IT.

Peter Tallantire Civil Contingencies Secretariat, Cabinet Office, UK

Peter Tallantire currently has overall responsibility within the Cabinet Office (Civil Contingencies Secretariat) for work to identify short term, potential, civil disruptive challenges to the UK and, where appropriate, for ensuring that effective arrangements are in place to ideally prevent and, if not, mitigate their effect, that the central government response is coordinated effectively, and that key issues are identified and lessons applied. He also has responsibility for civil aspects of the UK’s national crisis management arrangements and associated doctrine and training, along with overall responsibility for the UK’s national crisis management centre (COBR). Before joining the Civil Contingencies Secretariat in 2001, Peter was involved in driving forward the Government’s public service reform agenda through the creation of Executive Agencies to separate out policy and delivery functions in central government, and in making public services more responsive to their users. He has also worked in the Cabinet

Office on defence and foreign policy issues. He was awarded an OBE in 2003.

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John Tesh CBE Kings College London

John Tesh retired from the Civil Service in 2012, after a 36-year career in the Ministry of Defence, which ranged widely over the fields of international policy, national strategy, operational policy, finance and organization. His last appointment, from 2006-2012, was on secondment to the Cabinet Office as Deputy Director and head of the capabilities team in the Civil Contingencies Secretariat. This is the unit that advises the government on crisis management and resilience issues. In this capacity, John coordinated the National Resilience Capabilities Programme, a portfolio of over 20 government-wide projects to improve preparedness for major emergencies and to improve the resilience characteristics of national infrastructure. He also contributed material on national resilience to the first three national security strategies (in 2008, 2009 and 2010). He is probably best known, nationally and internationally, for his work on national risk assessment, developing the UK’s National Risk Assessment to the point where, in 2009, this was acknowledged as best in class internationally by the OECD. He pioneered work on risk communication in the National Risk Register, co-authoring the first edition in 2008 and subsequent versions. And assisted in the design and subsequent review of the 2010 National Security Risk Assessment which highlighted the longer-term risks of attacks on UK international security interests.

He was awarded a CBE in 2013 for his work on civil resilience and the development of the National Risk Assessment. He is currently continuing this work through consultancy to the OECD, for whom he has authored a comparative study of National Risk Assessment among a number of OECD Member States to be completed in 2016, and others including King’s College London, and the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies (RUSI). Publications include: Trends and Directions in Disaster Risk Management in ‘Europe and Others Group’ – for the World Humanitarian Summit Regional Consultation in Budapest, 3-4 February 2015; a report for RUSI and the Swedish NDU on Supply Chain Resilience (not yet published, and focusing in particular on the resilience of supplies of energy, food and water, and pharmaceuticals); and (2013) RUSI report on the National Risk Register (NRR)’s value to communities and businesses.

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Paul 't Hart Professor of Public Administration at Utrecht University and Associate Dean of the Netherlands School of Public Administration in The Hague

Paul 't Hart is a Professor of Public Administration at Utrecht University and Associate Dean of the Netherlands School of Public Administration in The Hague. He resumed both positions in mid-2011, after spending five years as Professor of Political Science at the Australian National University. Paul’s research, teaching and consulting covers political and public sector leadership, policy evaluation, public accountability and crisis management. His books include The Politics of Crisis Management (Cambridge UP, 2005), Governing After Crisis (Cambridge UP 2008), Framing the Global Meltdown: Crisis Rhetoric and the Politics of Recession (ANU E-Press 2009), How Power Changes Hands: Transition and Succession in Government (Palgrave 2011), Understanding Prime-Ministerial Performance (Oxford University Press 2013), The Oxford Handbook of Political Leadership (Oxford University Press 2014) and Understanding Public Leadership (Palgrave 2014).

Paul has extensive crisis management training and leadership consulting experience within government, primarily in Holland, Sweden and Australia, including long secondments at the Dutch Intelligence Service and Public Prosecutors Office. He is currently a member of the committee evaluating the Dutch police law of 2012, which saw the creation of a single, national police force out of 25 regional forces. He was elected a member of the Royal Dutch Academy of Arts and Sciences in 2014 and in 2016 received an Advanced Grant from the European Research Council to build a team studying successful public organizations, networks and policies.

Annika Brändström Deputy Director-General in the Government. Head of the Crisis Coordination Secretariat of the Swedish Government.

Annika Brändström is Deputy Director-General in the Government offices and head of the Crisis Coordination Secretariat of the Swedish government.

She was part of establishing the Center for Crisis Management Research and Training (CRISMART) at the Swedish National Defence University and has since her first assignment in the Government Offices held several positions within the Prime Minister’s office, Ministry of Defence and Ministry of Justice. Annika holds a PhD from Utrecht University School of Governance

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Lars Hedström Executive Director at the Institute for National Defence and Security Policy Studies

Lars Hedström is the Executive Director at the Institute for National Defence and Security Policy Studies, at the Swedish Defence University. Prior to his current position he served at the Crisis Management Coordination Secretariat within the Prime Minister’s Office. As the Deputy Director he established and developed the Secretariat´s support to the PM and the coordinating Crisis Management procedures for the Government and in the Government Offices. Lars Hedström was previously with the Swedish Emergency Management Agency (SEMA) and the Swedish Rescue Services Agency. In 2000 Mr Hedström was seconded to NATO Headquarters, Civil Emergency Planning Directorate. He is a former Chief Fire Officer. Lars Hedström served as head of mission for the Swedish Search and Rescue Team after the two earthquakes in Turkey 1999. In January 2005 he was head of the Swedish Rescue and Support Team in Thailand after the tsunami catastrophe and in October 2005 the Swedish Foreign Ministry requested his assistance in Islamabad after the earthquake in the north of Pakistan. He is an often used advisor and lecturer within societal security, crisis management, defence and security policy.

Professor, Dr. Nicolas Mueller Head, Federal Crisis Management Training, Swiss Federal Chancellery

Nicolas G. Mueller advises the Swiss Government in matters of Strategic Crisis Management and is responsible with his staff for Crisis Early Detection for the Federal Council (Swiss Cabinet). He is also responsible for the Strategic Crisis Exercises in Switzerland. Nicolas Mueller earned a PhD in Physics, MBAs from the Universities of Toronto and St. Gallen, and is adjunct Professor in international relations at the Geneva School of Diplomacy.

In 2013, he got a DIR h.c. for his effort to reduce human suffering in the world and to promote better crisis management. Before joining the Federal Chancellery in 2007, Nicolas worked several years as a delegate and coordinator for the ICRC – including a longer mission in Afghanistan from 1999-2001. He subsequently joined an international consulting firm and lead or participated in strategy and risk management consulting projects on four continents. From 2005-2007 he was the project manager for the Information Operations Force in the Swiss Armed Forces Joint Staff. Nicolas is also a general staff colonel and the deputy head of operations (G3) of the Swiss Land Forces.

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Herman B. “Dutch” Leonard Professor of Public Management at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government

Herman B. “Dutch” Leonard is the George F. Baker Professor of Public Management at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government and faculty Co-Director of the Kennedy School’s Program on Crisis Leadership, and the Eliot I. Snider and Family Professor of Business Administration and Co-Chair of the Social Enterprise Initiative at Harvard Business School. He served at the Kennedy School as an Academic Dean from 1992 to 2000. He teaches about leadership and crisis management. He is the faculty co-chair of the Kennedy School's Leadership in Crises executive program, of the General and Flag Officers executive program, of the Leadership in Homeland Security executive program, and of the joint Kennedy School and Harvard Graduate School of Education executive program on crisis management for higher education institutions. He was a member of the World Economic Forum Global Agenda Council on Catastrophic Risk from 2008 to 2012. He has provided advice to numerous international, national, state, provincial, local, nonprofit, and private organizations and executives about risk management and crisis leadership and preparation and recovery. He was a member of the board of directors of Harvard Pilgrim Health Care, a 1.2 million member Massachusetts nonprofit health insurance company, and of the boards of directors of the American Civil Liberties Union of Massachusetts, of the Hitachi Foundation, of the Massachusetts Health and Education Facilities Authority, and of Civic Investments. He is the co-editor and co-author of Managing Crises: Responses to Large Scale Emergencies and of Public Health Preparedness: Case Studies in Policy and Management (forthcoming), and co-author of Capitalism at Risk: Rethinking the Role of Business, among other books and articles. He received his PhD in economics in 1979 from Harvard.

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Stéphane Jacobzone Deputy Head of Division, Reform of the Public Sector, Public Governance and Territorial Development Directorate, OECD

Mr. Jacobzone takes a leading role in coordinating public governance activities at the OECD, including through the High Level Risk Forum (HLRF). The HLRF led the development of ground-breaking OECD Principles on the Governance of Critical Risks, building on a set of thematic activities as well as peer reviews. These activities are also closely coordinated with the European Commission and the UNISDR. Mr. Jacobzone also co-ordinates the OECD Public Governance Committee, including thematic work on strategic agility and trust in government, as well as an integrated public governance review of the center of government in Finland and Estonia. He previously worked extensively on regulatory issues, the governance of regulatory oversight and the institutional design for economic regulators, and conducted multidisciplinary country reviews of regulatory reform in a dozen of countries. He started his career at the French Treasury. Mr. Jacobzone is a former alumni of the Ecole Polytechnique and ENSAE (French National Academy for Statistics and Economics), France. He taught at the French Institut d'Etudes Politiques, Ecole Nationale d'Administration, French ENSAE and Brazil National School of Public Administration. He is the author of many books and peer reviewed articles.

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PRACTICAL INFORMATION

Third OECD Workshop on Strategic Crisis Management 12-13 May 2016 – Geneva, Switzerland

Venue

Villa La Pastorale 106, route de Ferney 1211 Geneva, Switzerland

Directions to Venue

From the Geneva International Airport: Take bus (Direction: Thônex-Vallard)

From the Geneva Central Train Station (Gare Cornavin): Take bus (Direction: Aéroport) Exit from bus at stop Intercontinental. The Villa La Pastorale is across from the InterContinental hotel, along the Allée David Morse, at 106 route de Ferney. Bus timetable: http://www.tpg.ch/fr/ligne5 Geneva public transportation route planner: http://tpg.hafas.de/hafas/tp/query.exe/en

For a detailed map of the venue and hotel

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Public Governance and Territorial Development

www.oecd.org/gov/risk@OECDgov