6 demographic geopolitical and economic trends - · pdf filedemographic, geopolitical and...

How the world is changing. Demographic, geopolitical and

economic trends

Prof. Antonio GoliniEmeritus, Sapienza University of Rome

Acting President of ISTAT, National Statical Institute

The analyses carried out in this

presentation are the result of

reflections made in the course of my

life as a scholar and do not necessarily

involve the positions of the National

Institute of Statistics.

Many thanks to Dr Elena Gramiccia

and Dr Tommaso Rondinella for their

valuable contribution in preparing this

lecture.

2

Demographic trends

Source: calculations on UN Population division data. World Population Prospects: the 2012 Revision

Total population by Region:

1950-2050 (billions)

Demographic trends

4

Continent 2010 2050 2050-10 %2050-10

Africa 1033 1998 965 93,5

Americas 898 1128 230 25,6

Asia 4167 5231 1065 25,6

Europe 733 691 -42 -5,7

Oceania 36 51 16 43,3

WORLD 6909 9150 2241 32,4

Total population by Continent

2010-2050

(millions and differences)

Source: calculations on UN Population division data. World Population Prospects: the 2012 Revision

Total population by Regions, 1950-2050 (%):

(a) More developed countries- MDRs,

(b) Intermediate developed countries- IDCs,

(c) Less developed countries- LDCs

5

Demographic trends

Population , 1950 - 2050 (millions)

More developed countries

Intermediate developed countries

Less developed countries.

Source: calculations on UN Population division data. World Population Prospects: the 2012 Revision

Note: Estimate 1950-2010. Projection Average fertility 2015-20506

Demographic trends

Source: calculations on UN Population division data. World Population Prospects: the 2012 Revision

Note: Estimate 1950-2010. Projection Average fertility 2015-2050

Population 1950 - 2050

(millions)

7

Demographic trends around the Mediterranean Sea

A country of elderly people:

in 2050, over sixty years old people will represent one-third of the population

(now they are one in five people), and the number of over eighty years old

people will increase from the current 5.8% to 13.6%.

Source: Istat- Demo8

Population by age

1950 - 2050

(billion)

Demographic trends in Italy

Demographic equilibriums: factor of peace (?)

The population of Israel (8.2 million), with 75 percent of the population being

Jewish Israelis is growing at about 1.8 percent.

The population of State of Palestine (4.4 million + more than 1.5 million

refugees living in camps and 4 million outside) is growing 2.4 percent a year.

While the Jewish proportion in Israel will decline slightly over the next two

decades, it will continue to be the dominant majority of the Israeli

population, 73 percent in 2035. This is not the case, however, when one

considers the entire future population residing in the former British

Palestine. Demographic projections indicate that less than half of the future

population residing there would be Jewish, 48 percent in 2025 and 46

percent by 2035 (53% with only West Bank).

Source: Joseph Chamie , Israeli-Palestinian Population Growth and Its Impact on Peace, 2/2/2014 WORLDVIEWS

*if Palestinians in refugee camps included

Economic trends: World economic

center of gravity is shifting away

Source: CPB World Trade Monitor

World economic center of gravity is shifting towards the emerging

countries.

Two-thirds of global growth are generated in emerging economies

e.g. the Asiatic countries.

Economic trends

11

World trade

(monthly

index

2000=100)

12

Economic trends

Distribution of weights on world economy of emerging and advanced

countries, as defined nowadays

Share of world GDP in emerging and advanced countries, 1950-2030

Source: elaboration on data Angus Maddison and FMI

In peoples relationships we are moving back to ancient times.

1950 situation does not seem to be reproducible, even if some

western countries may be willing to.

Distribution of weights on world economy of emerging and advanced

countries, as defined nowadays

Share of world GDP in emerging and advanced countries, 1950-2030

Economic trends

13Source: elaboration on data Angus Maddison and FMI

Two-thirds of middle class consumers will be in Asia

Today there are 1.8 billion people in the global middle class,

concentrated in North America (338 million), Europe (664 million) and

Asia (525 million). The US has some 230 million, the EU 450 million

middle class consumers.

Today Asia accounts for less than one-quarter. By 2020, that share is

expected to double. By 2050 two-thirds of middle class consumers

will be in Asia.

Source: Kharas, 2010. Working paper, OECD Development Centre.

Shares of Global Middle

Class Consumption,

2000-2050

Middle class consumers

spend between 10 and

100 $PPP per day.

Economic trends

Productions goes where work is cheaper and more available

A growing share of Foreign Direct Investments move towards developing

economies.

Source: UNCTAD15

Inbound Foreign

Direct

Investments

(annual data,

stock, millions of

dollars)

Source: elaboration on World Bank World Development Indicators and UNCTAD data

The weight that Italy holds in the world is progressively diminishing, in the

quantity of goods and services both produced and exported, as well as in the

population.

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Weight of Italy:

share of world

GDP, Export and

Population

1960 2012

(percentages)

Economic trends in Italy

Source: Istat

Productions goes where work is cheaper and more available

Nationally controlled enterprises in foreign countries by economic activity years 2007 and 2010

(percentage share with respect to the whole enterprises resident in Italy)

17

Foreign

Direct

Investments.

Italy,

inbound and

outbound

(stock

millions of

dollars)

Labour supply perspectives

Source: A. Golini, Seminario Ambrosetti, Milano 2011

Growth forecasts of working age population and number of jobs needed to absorb it Years 2010-

2050

The huge low cost labour supply in less and intermediate development countries, in

particular the BRICS and Sub-Saharian African countries, together with the reduced or

negative supply in western countries, in particular the European ones, makes

production increasingly move where work is cheaper and more available.

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Regions 1970-

2010

2010-

2050

% 1970-

2010

% 2010-

2050

Africa 392 725 204,5 124,1

North

America

92 40 64,3 17,2

Latin

America

231 79 150,1 20,5

Asia 1.610 595 135,8 21,3

Europe 81 -103 19,2 -20,6

Oceania 10 7 79,0 29,7

WORLD 2.416 1342 114,6 29,7

Demographic trends: Migrations The majority of migrants are in the North of the world (128 million), but come

from the South (147 million) .

While needed, migration can not and will not, as has happened from 800 to 900,

resolve miseries of the world.

South

53,453,4

South

North

73,273,2

74,374,3

13,3

Source: elaboration on UN Population division. Trends in International Migrant Stock data 19

North

Migrant population by Region of origin and destination Year 2010

it is worth noticing that movements take place mostly within the

same Regions.

Migrant population by Region of origin and destination, 2010 (millions)

Source: elaboration on UN Population division. Trends in International Migrant Stock data 20

Demographic trends: Migrations

Employment and Migration

Source: Eurostat

Foreigners employed people (% on total employment)

21

Migrations are needed also in downturns because in developed countries

they help rebalance not only quantitative labour market disequilibria, but

also the qualitative ones. In developing countries it is not the same.

Foreign employment in Italy

Source: Istat

Foreign employed

people by economic

sector in Italy

(percentage)

In the Italian Labour Market, foreigner employed people are less than 2 per

cent in the Public Administration, Finance and Insurance, Education while are

the 16.5% in the Hotel and Restaurant sector, the 18.9% in the

construction, and the 76.8% in the domestic and care Service sector (it was

the 67,3% in 2008).

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Employment and Unemployment

Employment rate

(15-64 years old)

in advanced

countries before

and after the

financial crisis

(%)

In the advanced countries, millions of jobs have been burned by the

financial crisis, and have not been made up.

And there is a very strong competition trying to do this.

The amazing ability to carry everything everywhere cheaply and fast is largely

based on a banal but extraordinary invention such as the container

Containers moved in the world (millions of TEU)

Source: