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How the world is changing. Demographic, geopolitical and
economic trends
Prof. Antonio GoliniEmeritus, Sapienza University of Rome
Acting President of ISTAT, National Statical Institute
The analyses carried out in this
presentation are the result of
reflections made in the course of my
life as a scholar and do not necessarily
involve the positions of the National
Institute of Statistics.
Many thanks to Dr Elena Gramiccia
and Dr Tommaso Rondinella for their
valuable contribution in preparing this
lecture.
2
Demographic trends
Source: calculations on UN Population division data. World Population Prospects: the 2012 Revision
Total population by Region:
1950-2050 (billions)
Demographic trends
4
Continent 2010 2050 2050-10 %2050-10
Africa 1033 1998 965 93,5
Americas 898 1128 230 25,6
Asia 4167 5231 1065 25,6
Europe 733 691 -42 -5,7
Oceania 36 51 16 43,3
WORLD 6909 9150 2241 32,4
Total population by Continent
2010-2050
(millions and differences)
Source: calculations on UN Population division data. World Population Prospects: the 2012 Revision
Total population by Regions, 1950-2050 (%):
(a) More developed countries- MDRs,
(b) Intermediate developed countries- IDCs,
(c) Less developed countries- LDCs
5
Demographic trends
Population , 1950 - 2050 (millions)
More developed countries
Intermediate developed countries
Less developed countries.
Source: calculations on UN Population division data. World Population Prospects: the 2012 Revision
Note: Estimate 1950-2010. Projection Average fertility 2015-20506
Demographic trends
Source: calculations on UN Population division data. World Population Prospects: the 2012 Revision
Note: Estimate 1950-2010. Projection Average fertility 2015-2050
Population 1950 - 2050
(millions)
7
Demographic trends around the Mediterranean Sea
A country of elderly people:
in 2050, over sixty years old people will represent one-third of the population
(now they are one in five people), and the number of over eighty years old
people will increase from the current 5.8% to 13.6%.
Source: Istat- Demo8
Population by age
1950 - 2050
(billion)
Demographic trends in Italy
Demographic equilibriums: factor of peace (?)
The population of Israel (8.2 million), with 75 percent of the population being
Jewish Israelis is growing at about 1.8 percent.
The population of State of Palestine (4.4 million + more than 1.5 million
refugees living in camps and 4 million outside) is growing 2.4 percent a year.
While the Jewish proportion in Israel will decline slightly over the next two
decades, it will continue to be the dominant majority of the Israeli
population, 73 percent in 2035. This is not the case, however, when one
considers the entire future population residing in the former British
Palestine. Demographic projections indicate that less than half of the future
population residing there would be Jewish, 48 percent in 2025 and 46
percent by 2035 (53% with only West Bank).
Source: Joseph Chamie , Israeli-Palestinian Population Growth and Its Impact on Peace, 2/2/2014 WORLDVIEWS
*if Palestinians in refugee camps included
Economic trends: World economic
center of gravity is shifting away
Source: CPB World Trade Monitor
World economic center of gravity is shifting towards the emerging
countries.
Two-thirds of global growth are generated in emerging economies
e.g. the Asiatic countries.
Economic trends
11
World trade
(monthly
index
2000=100)
12
Economic trends
Distribution of weights on world economy of emerging and advanced
countries, as defined nowadays
Share of world GDP in emerging and advanced countries, 1950-2030
Source: elaboration on data Angus Maddison and FMI
In peoples relationships we are moving back to ancient times.
1950 situation does not seem to be reproducible, even if some
western countries may be willing to.
Distribution of weights on world economy of emerging and advanced
countries, as defined nowadays
Share of world GDP in emerging and advanced countries, 1950-2030
Economic trends
13Source: elaboration on data Angus Maddison and FMI
Two-thirds of middle class consumers will be in Asia
Today there are 1.8 billion people in the global middle class,
concentrated in North America (338 million), Europe (664 million) and
Asia (525 million). The US has some 230 million, the EU 450 million
middle class consumers.
Today Asia accounts for less than one-quarter. By 2020, that share is
expected to double. By 2050 two-thirds of middle class consumers
will be in Asia.
Source: Kharas, 2010. Working paper, OECD Development Centre.
Shares of Global Middle
Class Consumption,
2000-2050
Middle class consumers
spend between 10 and
100 $PPP per day.
Economic trends
Productions goes where work is cheaper and more available
A growing share of Foreign Direct Investments move towards developing
economies.
Source: UNCTAD15
Inbound Foreign
Direct
Investments
(annual data,
stock, millions of
dollars)
Source: elaboration on World Bank World Development Indicators and UNCTAD data
The weight that Italy holds in the world is progressively diminishing, in the
quantity of goods and services both produced and exported, as well as in the
population.
16
Weight of Italy:
share of world
GDP, Export and
Population
1960 2012
(percentages)
Economic trends in Italy
Source: Istat
Productions goes where work is cheaper and more available
Nationally controlled enterprises in foreign countries by economic activity years 2007 and 2010
(percentage share with respect to the whole enterprises resident in Italy)
17
Foreign
Direct
Investments.
Italy,
inbound and
outbound
(stock
millions of
dollars)
Labour supply perspectives
Source: A. Golini, Seminario Ambrosetti, Milano 2011
Growth forecasts of working age population and number of jobs needed to absorb it Years 2010-
2050
The huge low cost labour supply in less and intermediate development countries, in
particular the BRICS and Sub-Saharian African countries, together with the reduced or
negative supply in western countries, in particular the European ones, makes
production increasingly move where work is cheaper and more available.
18
Regions 1970-
2010
2010-
2050
% 1970-
2010
% 2010-
2050
Africa 392 725 204,5 124,1
North
America
92 40 64,3 17,2
Latin
America
231 79 150,1 20,5
Asia 1.610 595 135,8 21,3
Europe 81 -103 19,2 -20,6
Oceania 10 7 79,0 29,7
WORLD 2.416 1342 114,6 29,7
Demographic trends: Migrations The majority of migrants are in the North of the world (128 million), but come
from the South (147 million) .
While needed, migration can not and will not, as has happened from 800 to 900,
resolve miseries of the world.
South
53,453,4
South
North
73,273,2
74,374,3
13,3
Source: elaboration on UN Population division. Trends in International Migrant Stock data 19
North
Migrant population by Region of origin and destination Year 2010
it is worth noticing that movements take place mostly within the
same Regions.
Migrant population by Region of origin and destination, 2010 (millions)
Source: elaboration on UN Population division. Trends in International Migrant Stock data 20
Demographic trends: Migrations
Employment and Migration
Source: Eurostat
Foreigners employed people (% on total employment)
21
Migrations are needed also in downturns because in developed countries
they help rebalance not only quantitative labour market disequilibria, but
also the qualitative ones. In developing countries it is not the same.
Foreign employment in Italy
Source: Istat
Foreign employed
people by economic
sector in Italy
(percentage)
In the Italian Labour Market, foreigner employed people are less than 2 per
cent in the Public Administration, Finance and Insurance, Education while are
the 16.5% in the Hotel and Restaurant sector, the 18.9% in the
construction, and the 76.8% in the domestic and care Service sector (it was
the 67,3% in 2008).
23
Employment and Unemployment
Employment rate
(15-64 years old)
in advanced
countries before
and after the
financial crisis
(%)
In the advanced countries, millions of jobs have been burned by the
financial crisis, and have not been made up.
And there is a very strong competition trying to do this.
The amazing ability to carry everything everywhere cheaply and fast is largely
based on a banal but extraordinary invention such as the container
Containers moved in the world (millions of TEU)
Source: