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  • How the world is changing. Demographic, geopolitical and

    economic trends

    Prof. Antonio GoliniEmeritus, Sapienza University of Rome

    Acting President of ISTAT, National Statical Institute

  • The analyses carried out in this

    presentation are the result of

    reflections made in the course of my

    life as a scholar and do not necessarily

    involve the positions of the National

    Institute of Statistics.

    Many thanks to Dr Elena Gramiccia

    and Dr Tommaso Rondinella for their

    valuable contribution in preparing this

    lecture.

    2

  • Demographic trends

  • Source: calculations on UN Population division data. World Population Prospects: the 2012 Revision

    Total population by Region:

    1950-2050 (billions)

    Demographic trends

    4

    Continent 2010 2050 2050-10 %2050-10

    Africa 1033 1998 965 93,5

    Americas 898 1128 230 25,6

    Asia 4167 5231 1065 25,6

    Europe 733 691 -42 -5,7

    Oceania 36 51 16 43,3

    WORLD 6909 9150 2241 32,4

    Total population by Continent

    2010-2050

    (millions and differences)

  • Source: calculations on UN Population division data. World Population Prospects: the 2012 Revision

    Total population by Regions, 1950-2050 (%):

    (a) More developed countries- MDRs,

    (b) Intermediate developed countries- IDCs,

    (c) Less developed countries- LDCs

    5

    Demographic trends

  • Population , 1950 - 2050 (millions)

    More developed countries

    Intermediate developed countries

    Less developed countries.

    Source: calculations on UN Population division data. World Population Prospects: the 2012 Revision

    Note: Estimate 1950-2010. Projection Average fertility 2015-20506

    Demographic trends

  • Source: calculations on UN Population division data. World Population Prospects: the 2012 Revision

    Note: Estimate 1950-2010. Projection Average fertility 2015-2050

    Population 1950 - 2050

    (millions)

    7

    Demographic trends around the Mediterranean Sea

  • A country of elderly people:

    in 2050, over sixty years old people will represent one-third of the population

    (now they are one in five people), and the number of over eighty years old

    people will increase from the current 5.8% to 13.6%.

    Source: Istat- Demo8

    Population by age

    1950 - 2050

    (billion)

    Demographic trends in Italy

  • Demographic equilibriums: factor of peace (?)

    The population of Israel (8.2 million), with 75 percent of the population being

    Jewish Israelis is growing at about 1.8 percent.

    The population of State of Palestine (4.4 million + more than 1.5 million

    refugees living in camps and 4 million outside) is growing 2.4 percent a year.

    While the Jewish proportion in Israel will decline slightly over the next two

    decades, it will continue to be the dominant majority of the Israeli

    population, 73 percent in 2035. This is not the case, however, when one

    considers the entire future population residing in the former British

    Palestine. Demographic projections indicate that less than half of the future

    population residing there would be Jewish, 48 percent in 2025 and 46

    percent by 2035 (53% with only West Bank).

    Source: Joseph Chamie , Israeli-Palestinian Population Growth and Its Impact on Peace, 2/2/2014 WORLDVIEWS

    *if Palestinians in refugee camps included

  • Economic trends: World economic

    center of gravity is shifting away

  • Source: CPB World Trade Monitor

    World economic center of gravity is shifting towards the emerging

    countries.

    Two-thirds of global growth are generated in emerging economies

    e.g. the Asiatic countries.

    Economic trends

    11

    World trade

    (monthly

    index

    2000=100)

  • 12

    Economic trends

    Distribution of weights on world economy of emerging and advanced

    countries, as defined nowadays

    Share of world GDP in emerging and advanced countries, 1950-2030

    Source: elaboration on data Angus Maddison and FMI

  • In peoples relationships we are moving back to ancient times.

    1950 situation does not seem to be reproducible, even if some

    western countries may be willing to.

    Distribution of weights on world economy of emerging and advanced

    countries, as defined nowadays

    Share of world GDP in emerging and advanced countries, 1950-2030

    Economic trends

    13Source: elaboration on data Angus Maddison and FMI

  • Two-thirds of middle class consumers will be in Asia

    Today there are 1.8 billion people in the global middle class,

    concentrated in North America (338 million), Europe (664 million) and

    Asia (525 million). The US has some 230 million, the EU 450 million

    middle class consumers.

    Today Asia accounts for less than one-quarter. By 2020, that share is

    expected to double. By 2050 two-thirds of middle class consumers

    will be in Asia.

    Source: Kharas, 2010. Working paper, OECD Development Centre.

    Shares of Global Middle

    Class Consumption,

    2000-2050

    Middle class consumers

    spend between 10 and

    100 $PPP per day.

    Economic trends

  • Productions goes where work is cheaper and more available

    A growing share of Foreign Direct Investments move towards developing

    economies.

    Source: UNCTAD15

    Inbound Foreign

    Direct

    Investments

    (annual data,

    stock, millions of

    dollars)

  • Source: elaboration on World Bank World Development Indicators and UNCTAD data

    The weight that Italy holds in the world is progressively diminishing, in the

    quantity of goods and services both produced and exported, as well as in the

    population.

    16

    Weight of Italy:

    share of world

    GDP, Export and

    Population

    1960 2012

    (percentages)

    Economic trends in Italy

  • Source: Istat

    Productions goes where work is cheaper and more available

    Nationally controlled enterprises in foreign countries by economic activity years 2007 and 2010

    (percentage share with respect to the whole enterprises resident in Italy)

    17

    Foreign

    Direct

    Investments.

    Italy,

    inbound and

    outbound

    (stock

    millions of

    dollars)

  • Labour supply perspectives

    Source: A. Golini, Seminario Ambrosetti, Milano 2011

    Growth forecasts of working age population and number of jobs needed to absorb it Years 2010-

    2050

    The huge low cost labour supply in less and intermediate development countries, in

    particular the BRICS and Sub-Saharian African countries, together with the reduced or

    negative supply in western countries, in particular the European ones, makes

    production increasingly move where work is cheaper and more available.

    18

    Regions 1970-

    2010

    2010-

    2050

    % 1970-

    2010

    % 2010-

    2050

    Africa 392 725 204,5 124,1

    North

    America

    92 40 64,3 17,2

    Latin

    America

    231 79 150,1 20,5

    Asia 1.610 595 135,8 21,3

    Europe 81 -103 19,2 -20,6

    Oceania 10 7 79,0 29,7

    WORLD 2.416 1342 114,6 29,7

  • Demographic trends: Migrations The majority of migrants are in the North of the world (128 million), but come

    from the South (147 million) .

    While needed, migration can not and will not, as has happened from 800 to 900,

    resolve miseries of the world.

    South

    53,453,4

    South

    North

    73,273,2

    74,374,3

    13,3

    Source: elaboration on UN Population division. Trends in International Migrant Stock data 19

    North

    Migrant population by Region of origin and destination Year 2010

  • it is worth noticing that movements take place mostly within the

    same Regions.

    Migrant population by Region of origin and destination, 2010 (millions)

    Source: elaboration on UN Population division. Trends in International Migrant Stock data 20

    Demographic trends: Migrations

  • Employment and Migration

    Source: Eurostat

    Foreigners employed people (% on total employment)

    21

    Migrations are needed also in downturns because in developed countries

    they help rebalance not only quantitative labour market disequilibria, but

    also the qualitative ones. In developing countries it is not the same.

  • Foreign employment in Italy

    Source: Istat

    Foreign employed

    people by economic

    sector in Italy

    (percentage)

    In the Italian Labour Market, foreigner employed people are less than 2 per

    cent in the Public Administration, Finance and Insurance, Education while are

    the 16.5% in the Hotel and Restaurant sector, the 18.9% in the

    construction, and the 76.8% in the domestic and care Service sector (it was

    the 67,3% in 2008).

  • 23

    Employment and Unemployment

    Employment rate

    (15-64 years old)

    in advanced

    countries before

    and after the

    financial crisis

    (%)

    In the advanced countries, millions of jobs have been burned by the

    financial crisis, and have not been made up.

    And there is a very strong competition trying to do this.

  • The amazing ability to carry everything everywhere cheaply and fast is largely

    based on a banal but extraordinary invention such as the container

    Containers moved in the world (millions of TEU)

    Source:

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