6 x 10.long new - cambridge university...

366

Index

9/11, 246, 248, 249, 250, 252

absolute evil, 298absolute monarch, 41absolute monarchies, 38absolutism, 84, 96Abyssinia, 159, 168academic elite

“Westernizing” and, 296accords

Mediterranean, 109, see also agreements: Mediterranean

Acheson, Dean, 237action

offensive, 199actors

non-state, 52rational, 155unitary, 76, 130

acts irrational, 47

Adenauer, Konrad, 310, 311, 312, 321administration

of Bush, 249, 250, 251, 252, 253, 255, 257, 265, see also Bush, George W.

of Clinton, 256, 257of Obama, 256, 261, 265, 266of Truman, 310of Roosevelt, 146

admirals “treaty faction,” 190

Adriatic, 104Serbia’s access to, 118

advancement intensive means of, 26

advantages long-term, 28

adversary, 202intervention in, 249military action in, 251Soviet occupation of, 300

Africa, 19, 22

Agadir, 116agency theory, 50, 71–74agenda

ideological and, 203aggrandizement, 343, 363aggression, 19, 238aggressors, 10agreement

Anglo-American trade, 146Anglo-German naval, 134

agreements Mediterranean, 108naval limitation, 191

agricultural production, 273aid

American, 35air armada, 235air cover

Soviet 217air forces, 132

British and French, 138Air Raid Precaution (ARP), 138air raids

German, 172aircraft, 179, 239

military 230airlift

Berlin 236airspace

Chinese 217Akhromeyev, Marshal (USSR), 304Al Qaeda, 246, 249, 251–55, 263Albania, 116, 117, 120Albright, Madeleine, 265Alexander I, 299Alexander the Great, 201Ali, Mehemet, 23, see also EgyptAlighieri, Dante, 339alliance, 89

German, 108, 119–121Polish, 148secret, 108

www.cambridge.org© in this web service Cambridge University Press

Cambridge University Press978-0-521-13224-4 - History and NeorealismEdited by Ernest R. May, Richard Rosecrance and Zara SteinerIndexMore information

http://www.cambridge.org


http://www.cambridge.org/9780521132244

367Index

alliances, 89, 90, 104, 130, 132, 342, 347, 354, 360

Anglo-Austrian, 90Anglo-Dutch, 90Anglo-Japanese, 188Austro-French, 90Austro-Russian, 90Bush and, 303Franco-Spanish, 90

Alsace-Lorraine, 25, 107ambiguity, 262ambition, 263America, 18, 47, 166, 189, 361, see also

United Statesincompetence of, 225

American Fleet, 345American Pacific Fleet, 195American Philippines, 197American politics, 1American Revolutionary War, 99Americans, 141, 146, 337

participation of, 134analyses

materialist 269hypothetical and counterfactual, 58

anarchy, 52, 80, 81, 85, 129, 348international, 78structural, 100, 102

Andrássy, Julius, 108, see also Austria-Hungary

Andropov, Yuri, 273, 277, 280, 336, see also USSR

death of, 282Angell, Norman, 156Anglo-French military talks

lack of, 178Anglo-German Payments

Agreement, 181Angola, 34, 300anomalies, 46, 52, 53, 75

generation of, 50“ocean of,” 52

Anschluss, 179, see also Austria-GermanyAnti-Comintern Pact, 168anti-communism, 236Apis, 114, 121, see also Serbiaappeasement, 45, 106, 128, 132, 157, 161,

see also United Kingdomproponent of, 156

appreciation February strategic, 140

Araki Nobuyoshi, 324Arbatov, Alexei, 282Archduke, see also Franz Ferdinand

death of, 127Aretin, K. O. von, 96

Argentina, 43, 231armaments

accumulation of, 327naval and military, 232

armed forces, 202arms

air cover and, 217Soviet cut in, 280

arms race, 272, 279arms shipments

Soviet and, 227arms spending, 271army, 186, 187, 189 see also Britain,

Germany, 191, 193, 194, 196, 198, 235, 353

German 130, 178state of French, 146strength of German, 139

Aron, Raymond, 247arrangements

collective security, 101power, 110

Arrow, Kenneth, 328Art of War, 204, see also Clausewitz, Carl

vonartichoke theory, 9, see also Hitler, Adolfartificial intelligence, 14artillery, 230Ash, Timothy Garton, 264Asia, 3, 14, 22, 285assassinations

1932–36, 191asset freeze

American, 196, see also Japanese assets: American freeze of

assistance American, 153

Association for the Monetary Union of Europe, 317

assumptions neorealist, 70unitary actor, 68

Athenians, 29, 230, 234, 238Athens, 2, 228

democratic, 43atomic bomb, 238, 239, 345, 362atomic energy

peaceful uses of, 312atomic warheads, 213attacks

9/11 terrorist, 249intercontinental terrorist, 246

Attlee, Clement, 236attrition

war of, 144






368 Index

audacity, 227audience costs, 45, 46Ausgleich agreement, 106, see also

Austria-HungaryAusterlitz, 226Austria, 9, 16, 24, 25, 33, 38, 39, 93, 97,

105, 106, 108, 123, 126, 127, 162, 167, 180, 347, 359

declares war on Serbia, 126EC membership and, 319

Austria-Hungary, 103, 104, 109, 111, 113, 121, 347, 355

as great power, 122Austrian gold

seizure of, 134Austrian legitimacy, 18Austrian War

of 1740–48 35Austro-Prussian War, 24autarky

strategy of, 164authority, 309

delegation of, 73information-sharing, 57

Axelrod, Robert, 55, 60Axis, 184, see also Germany, Italy“axis of evil,” 255

Bacon, Francis, 241Bad Godesberg, 170Baghdad, 244Baker, James, 303balance, 36, 129

international 358land, 139military, 134, 346naval, 139, 140

balance of interests, 294balance of power, 3, 4, 6, 10, 20, 23, 29,

33, 92, 93, 129, 130, 131, 137, 145, 155, 166, 177, 179, 182, 201, 227, 234, 294, 298, 304, 307, 323, 339, 342, 346, 360, 362

in 1938 vs. 113, 346Asian, 256diplomacy and, 306triumph of, 347vs. quest for order, 93

balance of trade, 182balancing, 52, 104, 106, 108, 123, 128,

137, 145, 146, 254external, 155internal, 155vs. bandwagoning, 102

Balkan League, 116Balkan Wars, 103, 116

Balkans, 104, 105, 108, 113, 116, 118Russia’s role in, 110

Baltic states, 26, 183bandwagoning, 104, 123, 128

vs. balance, 31Bangladesh, 285banks

regulation of, 363bargaining

distributional, 65Barnhart, Michael, 345Battle of Britain, 175, 183battle cruisers, 139battleships, 186Beck, Ludwig, 176

resignation of, 176Beck, Colonel, 17Beck, Friedrich, 112behavior

aggressive, 105Hitler’s, 149international, 352of Iran, 262of Japan, 325non-strategic, 329offensive, 131

behavior change, 259, 262Beijing, 26, 192Belgium, 23, 88, 101, 126, 148,

194, 311German invasion of, 126

Belgrade, 121, 124benefits

material, 270Berchtesgaden, 157, 170Berchtold, Leopold, 116Berlin, 2, 4, 115, 118, 120, 123, 347

warning to, 169Berlin embassy, 177Berlin Wall, 319, 349

fall of, 317Bessarabia, 183Bethmann-Hollweg, Theobald von, 126,

159big business, 307bin Laden, Osama, 246, 250bipolarity

US–Soviet, 67Bismarck, Otto von, 336, 354Bismarckian Concert, 25black boxes, 130Black Hand, 121Blackwill, Robert, 243Blair, Tony, 252, 333“blank check,” 124

Germany and, 347






369Index

blitzkrieg tactics, 183blockade, 144

Berlin 236economic, 140

Blomberg, Field-Marshal Werner von, 176blow

German knock-out 178knock-out, 132, 133, 138, 145

Board of Trade, 142Boer War, 264Bogomolov, Oleg, 282Bohemia, 111, 113, 123Bolingbroke, Viscount, 329Bolshevik Revolution, 188Bolsheviks, 288, 350, 352Bolshevism, 163bomb

terrorist, 242bombers, 175bombing

German, 132border

Czech, 170Manchurian, 193

Bosnia, 111, 121annexation of, 120

Bosnia-Herzegovina, 103, 107, 108, 112, 113, 114, 117, 120, 123

Bosnian crisis 1908–09, 103

Botero, Giovanni, 329Bovin, Alexander, 282Brauchitsch, Walther von, 176Brezhnev, Leonid, 305Britain, 4, 17, 24, 31, 43, 47, 83, 88, 91,

93, 94, 95, 97, 105, 108, 109, 113, 115, 126, 131, 132, 134, 137, 140, 144, 151, 153, 156, 160, 162, 166, 168, 174, 189, 194, 232, 311, 314, 319, 324, 344, 346, 358

aircraft production 179appeasement and, 182attacks on, 134budget rebate of, 316and great power, 153and peace, 353and Poland, 150population density of, 165

British Army, 178British Empire, 141, 163, 166

and difficulties, 167British Expeditionary Forces,

expansion of, 138British Indian Army, 206British leaders

stereotyped image of, 154

British, the, 150, 151, 177, 238Brüning, Heinrich, 161Brussels Pact, 311Brzezinski, Zbigniew, 243Bucharest, 119buck passing, 104, 128, 132

vs. balancing, 115buck-passing, 106, 130, 137, 145, 146,

147Budapest, 107Budrass, Lutz, 142Bukovina, 183Bulgaria, 114, 116, 121, 165, 301“Bulldog Britain,” 346bulldog spirit, 17Bundesbank, 317, 318, 320bureaucracy

of Soviet Union, 274Burián, Istvan, 120Bush Doctrine, 250Bush White House, 261, 262,

see also administration: of Bush Bush, George H. W., 353Bush, George W., 240, 244, 248, 253, 332,

333Butterfield, Herbert, 79

cabinet, 132, 136, 151–52, 169Cadogan, Alexander, 148, 150, 153, 177Calabria, 88calculation

long-range, 93material and, 292

Cambodia, 300Vietnamese withdrawal from, 300

Cambrai, Congress, 91campaign

Allied offensive, 137Anglo-Dutch, 94rearmament, 134retaliation, 138strategic bombing, 138

Canada, 165, 233capabilities, 45, 153, 268

dangerous and new, 256military, 244

capacities France’s defensive, 139Japan’s naval, 196

capital, 12, 13, 36capitalism, 288Caribbean, 42Carr, E.H., 55, 66, 156, 157, 161, 182,

233, 337cartels

destroying of, 310






Index370

Carter, Jimmy, 34, 40, 243, 314, 330Castro, Fidel, 32Catherine the Great, 16Caucasus, 162caution, 104Ceausescu, Nicolae, 301Cederman, Lars-Erik, 41Central Asia, 162

US bases in, 249Chamberlain, Neville, 17, 18, 19, 132,

135, 136–37, 145, 148, 150, 153, 157, 168, 172, 173, 177, 182, 184

and Hitler, 135, 136 353, 354, 358Munich and, 346

Chancellery, German military, 110

Chancellor of the Exchequer, 181change, 7, 79, see also role of change

behavior, 257domestic, 31peaceful, 156revolutionary, 351role of, 80

Chavez, Hugo, 36cheating, 67Chen Jian, 216, 219Cheney, Richard, 252, 261

and speech, 252Chernenko, Konstantin, 34, 277Chernyaev, Anatoly, 282, 297, 302, 304Chiang Kai-shek, 211Chiefs of Staff, 177, 178Chile, 37China, 3, 14, 15, 19, 27, 34, 92, 168, 175,

186, 189, 192, 203, 212–13, 220, 227, 231, 236, 249, 256–58, 262, 285, 356, 359

army of, 346help of, 346intervention in Korea, 237in Korea, 226Japan’s position in, 197Korea’s proximity to, 225North Vietnam and, 226rise of, 264Soviet forces and, 226troops and, 225United States and, 216

Chinese, Communist Party, 3military accomplishments of Chinese Nationalists, 191

Chinese People’s Volunteers, (CPV), 217Chirac, Jacques, 254Choiseul, Étienne François, 20Chōshū, 186

chromium, 166Church, 11Churchill, Winston, 149, 153, 160, 172,

179, 233, 348, 353, 354war and, 182Iron-Curtain speech of, 298

City of London, 181city-states

Italian, 88civil war

China and, 236civilizations

clash of, 255class struggle, 297Clausewitz, Carl Von, 204, 205clerics

radical and, 265Clinton, Bill, 34, 240, 244, 248Clive, Robert, 20coal, 308, 311coalition

Bismarck’s, 25great-power, 27international, 253multipolar, 25

coastal cities, 222cobalt, 166codes

moral and, 341cognitive learning, 268coherence

change in degree of, 350domestic, 31

cohesiveness domestic, 41

Colbert, Jean Baptist, 95Cold War, 5, 31, 52, 63, 236, 240, 243,

244, 246, 248, 255, 257, 267–68, 277, 279, 282, 294, 305, 311, 317, 321, 331, 333, 348, 355

origins of, 337collective security

US commitment to, 241colonies, 20, 21, 22

American, 20British, 95

Colvin, Ian, 180combat divisions, 213

US 238combat troops, 225commitment

from Britain, 178of Soviet Union, 268

Common Agricultural Policy, 313Common Defense, The, 242






Index 371

Commons, House of, 151communism, 312

fall of, 267communist movements, 267Communist parties

France and, 236Italy and, 236

Communist Party of the Soviet Union (CPSU), 34

27th CPSU Congress, 293competition, 278

absence of, 264competitors

economic, 236compromise

with Hitler, 135computers, 14concerns

relative-gains, 62Concert of Europe, 23–27, 348concerts, 360conference

Italian proposal for, 151Conference on Security and Cooperation,

307conflict, 20, 22, 87, 282conflicts, 155

distributional, 66political, 342in Third World, 272

confrontation, 196Congress of Berlin, 107

1878, 108Congress of Vienna, 105, 107Congresses, 91conquest

benefits of, 11Conrad, General, 111, 112, 114, 116,

117, 118, 125, 127, see also Austria-Hungary

conscription, 171declaration of, 138opposition to, 149

consensus ideological, 24

consequences domestic, 111Conservative Party, British, 131

conservatives, 23, 24Austrian and Prussian, 24Russian, Austrian, and German, 24

considerations insititutional, 353longer-term, 11normative, 353

Constantinople, 108, 117straits of, 110, 113, 114

constructivism, 48, 55, 69social, 81

consumption energy, 228

containment, 250, 255continent of Europe, 42control

of arms, 34Coolidge, Calvin, 8Cooper, Duff, 169, 171, 172cooperation, 4, 7, 21, 57, 66, 81,

155, 267“realist theory,” 65Franco-Russian, 117institutionalized, 53, 54, 64monetary, 314patterns of, 54“sucker’s payoff,” 65

coordinated leadership absence of, 345

Copeland, Dale, 126copper, 163Corcyra, 2Corinthians, 230Coser, Lewis, 42cost and benefits, 153Council of Europe, 307

Gorbachev and, 301Council of Ministers, 63, 313, 316,

see also Europecounterbalance, 45, 47counterinsurgency, 264coup, 176

against Hitler, 152anti-Gorbachev, 283

Court of Justice, European, 313Crimean War, 24crises

1938 Czech, 131Bosnian, 114Bulgarian, 108escalation of, 127First Moroccan, 109of July 111, 122Munich, 132Second Moroccan, 115

Croatia, 104, 111, 123Cromwell, Oliver, 95

military dictatorship of, 335Cuba, 13–14, 71, 90

invasion of, 14Russia’s Missile base in

Cuban Crisis, 2, 355






Index372

currency, 363adoption of single, 331of Europe, 318foreign, 143

currency of power, 28customs union, 313Cyprus

EC membership and, 319Czechoslovakia, 33, 133, 137, 148, 151,

157, 159, 167, 174, 177, 179, 180, 302

Anglo-French defense of, 178and Britain, 136forces of, 179loss of, 135revolution of, 349sell-out of, 153Soviet invasion of, 297

Czechoslovak-Soviet Pact, 174

Dahlerus, Burger, 150, 151Daladier, Édouard, 17, 133, 151, 170, 171Danzig, 149, 159, 162Dardanelles, 113Darfur, 265Dashichev, Vyacheslav, 282de Gaulle, Charles, 313, 331de la Warr, 171de Molina, Luis, 339de Vitoria, Francisco, 339debate

relative-gains, 62debts

war, 143decentralization, 273deception, 205decision-making

rationality of, 340decline

prevention of, 341decolonization, 165defeat, 256

Japan’s, 198defense

of England and France, 178of Europe, 310expenditures for, 281Soviet, 217terms of air, 140US, 271

defensive realism, 3, 104, 109, 117, 119, 122, 123, 326, 341, 343, 347

falsifiability of, 343vs. offensive realism, 3

deficit democratic, 63

delegation, 71, 74, 349form of, 77theories of, 76

Delhi, 26Delors Committee, 318Delors Report, 318, 319, 320Delors, Jacques, 315, 317, 318, 321, 350demilitarization, 298democracies, 13, 38, 39, 333, 352

liberal, 34, 38, 40Western, 163

democratic peace theory, 32, 52democratization, 249Deng Hua, 219, 220Denmark, 97, 314

in 24, 109density

population, 165Depression, 161Dessler, David, 49détente, 109, 272, 290, 296

Austro-Russian, 114, 115détente plus, 281, 282

and power line, 280and scenario, 280and strategy, 280

détentes, 104determinants

domestic, 130economic and military, 130

determinism degree of, 323

deterrence, 250, 255, 256, 259, 262, 298British, 135failure of, 262strategy of, 250

deutsche mark, 307, 314abolition of, 320

development economic, 165linear 348

deviations from power, 3

dialectic, 91Dickinson, G. Lowes, 337dictators, 159difference

method of, 46, see also similarity: method of

difficulties economic, 134Germany’s production, 131supply, 140

Diktat, 171Dimitrijevic, Dragutin, 110diplomacy, 158, 159, 342, 347






Index 373

diplomats, 89direct investment

foreign, 363disagreements

army-navy, 188, see also Japandiscord

army-navy, 197disorder

zone of, 93Disraeli, Benjamin, 21dissuasion, 256, 257, 258, 259

doctrine of, 349United States and, 259

dive-bombers, 175divisions, 138

domestic, 41German regular army, 133French, 173of Czechoslovakia, 174of Wehrmacht, 174

doctrine of preemption, 251, 252, 261

dollar depreciation of, 314

domain, 270, 290of gains, 39of losses, 40unfavorable 357

domain of gain, 27, 356, 357domain of loss, 10, 27, 356, 357,

359, 361domestic politics, 6, 8, 37, 65, 68, 106,

323, 343, 351–52, 357, 358, 359, 360–61

importance of, 123survival within, 328

dominance position of, 348United States and, 234

doves, 33Downs, George, 62Doyle, Michael W., 43Dual Monarchy, 106, see also Austria-

Hungarysurvival of, 347

Duma, 110, see also RussiaDundas, Henry, 95Durham Report, 21Dutch East Indies, 194Dutch Republic, 92

Eagleburger, Lawrence, 243East Germans, 349East Germany, 303East Indies, 193Eastern bloc, 301

Eastern Europe, 33, 267, 291, 303Eastern Front, 147ecological disasters, 282economic autarchy, 272economic decline, 268

in Soviet Union, 270, 275economic development

Soviet, 295economic downturns, 351economic growth, 271, 351, 362economic order

liberal and economic, 257economic productivity, 272economic strength, 12, 238, 307economies, 316

Chinese and Soviet, 213economist approach, 317economy

of Germany, 180of Soviet Union, 276

ECSC, see European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC)

ecumencial realism, 342unfalsifiability of, 343

educational systems strength of, 363success of, 28

Egypt, 19, 35, 88Eisenhower, Dwight, 238, 239, 344El Salvador, 300elections, 188elites, 33Elman, Colin, 29Elysée Treaty, 313embargo

arms, 146Emperor Hirohito, 198, 345Emperor Meiji

death of, 188Emperor Paul, 16empire, 22, 162, 269, 271, 355

American territorial and, 239evil, 40myths of, 37pursuit of, 332Spanish, 94

emulation, 10endogeneity, 76

Problem of, enforcement

decentralized, 57engagement, 257engines, internal combustion, 166England, 16, 20, 23, 25, 42, 92, 109, 174,

361, see also BritainEnlightenment, 86






Index374

entente Anglo-French, 115

equality diplomatic, 289political and, 293

equilibria multiple, 72

equilibrium European, 93

era ethical standards, 293Ethiopia, 237, 278, 300

Cuban military forces in, 300EU, see European Union (EU)Euratom, 313euro (currency unit), 14, 350Europe, 4, 8, 14, 26, 28, 33, 63, 285, 312

army of, 310Central, 38conflict in, 331contemporary, 330defense organization of, 311economic and political power of, 309integration in, 308, 319market and, 309southern, 38states of, 308unification of, 312united, 5

European allies of America, 251

European Atomic Energy Community. 313, see Euratom

European Coal and Steel Community, 310, 311, 313, 321

European Commission, 63, 321, 349European Community (EC), 63, 307, 319

expansion of membership of, 314membership in, 319

European Concert, 90, 101, see also Concert of Europe

European Council, 314, 318, 319European Court of Justice, 72European Currency unit (ECU), 314European Defense Community, 310, 311

Treaty, 311European Economic

Community, 313European Monetary System (EMS), 315,

316European Monetary Union (EMU), 67,

307European Parliament, 63, 321European Union (EU), 14, 26, 53, 254,

307, 321, 350, 352, 360, 363

in Brussels, 321states of, 354

exchanges of technology, 272

expansion, 20, 21, 22, 280, 362economic, 21external and military, 12intensive, 25, 26, 27intensive vs. extensive, 16internal, 21internal and economic, 12internal and external, 18territorial, 163, 347, 362

Expeditionary Force, 138expenditures

military and, 242explanation

baseline, 48of dissuasion, 257

explanations materialist and, 272, 296of materialists, 278, 283unit-level, 29

exports German, 141

external aggrandizement, 11

Falklands War, 43fascism, 38Fascist Italy, 231, 237Fashoda Crisis, 101Fearon, James, 45, 65Federal Republic of Germany, 285, 321

unification of, 307federalism, 319Federalists, 42feedback

positive, 47Felmy, Helmuth, 175Ferdinand, Franz, 104, 110, 115,

118, 120, 121, see also Austria-Hungary

assassination of, 124Ferdinand, Sophie, 124Ferguson, Niall, 344, 345Ferris, John, 153Field Force divisions Fighter Command, 132, 137, 178finances, 142Finland, 183First Balkan War, 104First French Republic, 39First World War, 22, 27, 116, 188, 189,

345, see World War IJapan’s entry into, 188






Index 375

Fischer, Fritz, 162fleet, 136fleet carriers

Japan’s, 197folk theorem, 71Fomin, Alexander, 2force

military, 244non-use of, 298resorting to, 226, 303resorts to, 7use of, 305, 356use or threat of, 294

forces, 267, 269American, 63, 265Chinese, 218ground, 232Japanese, 188military, 104Soviet, 193superior, 204Turkish, 117

Foreign Office, 150foreign policy, 33, 35, 36, 279, 319, 332

Habsburg, 121of Soviet Union, 267, 271, 275, 279,

281, 283theory, 47US, 243

Foreign Policy Engineering, 241France, 4, 9, 16, 17, 20, 22, 23, 24, 25, 30,

32, 33, 35, 39, 42, 47, 83, 88–91, 92, 94, 97, 108, 109, 114, 123, 126, 127, 131, 135, 137, 140, 145, 150, 151–52, 160, 167, 174, 194, 232, 246, 254, 308–09, 311, 331, 345, 352, 358

aircraft production and, 179the franc and, 316motivation of, 325officials of, 317population density of, 165

Franco-Prussian War of 1870–71, 25, 35

Frederick the Great, 9, 16, 18, 28, see also Prussia

1763 Peace of Paris, 16Free Democrats, 317free riders, 10Freedman, Lawrence, 251freedom of choice, 301

East Germans and, 303freedom of speech, 40French Empire, 163, 166French National Assembly, 310

and treaty, 311

French Revolution, 21, 88, 99, 348, 350frictions

Czech–German, 121Fritsch, Werner von, 176Fromm, Friedrich, 164frontier

Germany’s eastern and, 179Führer, 135, 153, see also Hitler, Adolf

and European peace settlement, 135Funk, Walther, 141future

“shadow of,” 65

Gaddis, John Lewis, 253gain, 40, 362

external, 21long term, 25

gains distribution of, 61long-term, 25relative, 61, 64, 67, 69unequal, 62

gains from trade, 19Galicia, 117, 123, see also Polesgambler, 228, 230, 233, 234,

240, 245realists and, 236

game constant-sum, 22, 26mixed-motive, 55, 57variable or increasing sum, 22zero-sum, 20

game theorists, 14game theory, 43, 71, 77Gamelin, General Maurice, 171, 177,

see also Francegas masks, 172Gates, Robert, 243, 280GATT, 57, see General Agreement on

Tariffs and Trade (GATT)GDP, see gross domestic product (GDP)General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade

(GATT), 53genrō, 188, see also JapanGenscher, Hans-Dietrich, 316, 317geopolitical position, 271Georgia, 264, 303

Russia’s military intervention in, 264German Confederation, 101German Democratic Republic, 301, 307German policy

defensive character of, 127German Reich, 96, 162, 184Germans, 126, 162

Sudeten, 168, 169






Index376

Germany, 4, 17, 22, 25, 28, 31, 33, 35, 87, 103, 109, 113, 115, 117, 118, 123, 124, 127, 132, 133, 134, 137, 138, 141–44, 147, 156, 163, 165, 168, 173, 175, 179, 194, 232, 235, 236, 237, 246, 263, 307, 310, 313, 316, 317, 321, 330, 335, 344, 353, 358–59

aircraft production and, 179alliance with, 195and Atlantic alliance, 311attack of, 346attacks on Soviets and, 183economy of, 309, 312encirclement of, 141expansion of, 344hegemonic ambitions and, 347deutsche mark, 350Nazi, 47occupation in, 311overpopulated, 163population density of, 165post-Cold War and, 330, 333rearmament of, 310reunification of, 303, 304Russia and, 345strength of, 133ultimatum to, 150under Adolf Hitler, 346unification of, 267, 317, 319, 320, 350Weimar, 29

Ghibellines, 44, see also GuelphsGilbert, Mark, 316Gilpin, Robert, 60Giscard d’Estaing, Valéry, 314–15, 317Gisevius, Hans, 176glasnost, 354global primacy

and America, 256globalization, 6, 286, 363Glorious Revolution, 92, see also Englandgoals

long-term, 24non-security, 130short-term, 24

Godesberg, 131, 135, 136, 137Goerdeler, Carl, 177gold, 143

United Kingdom and, 181, 182gold standard

abandonment of, 314Goldstein, Avery, 258, 291–93goods

stocks of, 19Gorbachev, Mikhail S., 34, 267, 269,

270–81, 289, 290–93, 294, 295, 297,

298, 299, 300, 301, 302, 303–05, 306, 349, 353, 354, 355, 359, 360, 364

aides of, 305“breathing space,” 280conflict resolution, 305disarmament and, 305joint Soviet–West German declaration,

303policy of, 301political miracles and, 305speech to the United Nations and, 306and travel to Europe, 285use of force and, 304Western leaders and, 306

Göring, Hermann, 150, 161, 175, 180, 181

government revenues military, 240

governments democratic, 43liberal-democratic, 38stable, 43

Gowa, Joanne, 60, 61grand strategy

British, 153change in British, 139China and, 258

Grant, Ulysses S., 44Great Britain, 11, 19, 38, 39, 46, 191, 194,

348, see Britain, EnglandGreat Depression, 19, 233, 236, 265Great Man theory, 354Great Northern War, 97great powers, 7, 15, 26, 47, 283, 342–49,

351concert of, 5expansionist and, 263

Great War, 131, 348, see also First World War, World War I

greatness shortcut to, 269

Greece, 2, 23, 101, 116, 142, 147, 236Greenwood, Arthur, 151Grey, Edward, 115, 118Grieco, Joseph, 61, 63, 65, 67, 70Grishin, Victor, 274Gromyko, Andrei, 281, 304gross domestic product, 228, US gross national product, 354Grotius, Hugo, 339ground warfare

technology of, 230group

higher-status, 286growth






Index 377

export-led, 21growth rate

economic, decline in Soviet Union, 276guarantee

militarily worthless, 159Polish, 147, 148Romania, 17

Guatemala, 37Guelphs, 44guerrilla war, 265guerrillas

anti-communist, 34communist and, 236

Gulf states, 166, 362Gulf War, 253

Haass, Richard, 248Habsburg Monarchy, 84, 89, 97, 103,

see also Austria,-Hungarypunishment of Serbia, 125

Hagan, J, 32Hainan Island, 193, 194Halder, Franz, 176Halifax, Viscount, 136, 147, 148–53Halt in Belgrade, 126hard currency

Germany and, 180reserves and, 181

hard power, 265, 266overuse of, 264

Harding, Warren, 228, 230, 330, 358Harriman, Averell, 238, 337Hart, Basil Liddell, 322Haslam, Jonathan, 348Hassner, Pierre, 255Haushofer, Karl, 165Hawaii, 197Hawaiian attack, see Pearl Harborhawks, 33, 40, 42, see also doveshedging strategy, 258hegemon, 230, 238

Germany’s desire to be, 126global, 236

hegemonic expansion absence of, 324

hegemonic status Germany and, 127, see also hegemon:

Germany’s desire to behegemony, 3, 15, 78, 101, 155, 326

American, 253British, 101regional, 342, 348

Helsinki agreement Basket Three, 302

Helsinki Final Act, 304

Henderson, Sir Nevile, 175, 177Hess, Rudolf, 165hierarchy, 5, 7

power, 341status, 285, 287, 290

High Authority, 311and the ECSC, 311

high-politics bargain, 320history, 306

counter-factual, 136international, 80

Hitler, Adolf, 9, 16, 17, 18, 31, 35, 43, 47, 112, 128, 131, 132, 134–37, 140, 141, 142, 148, 149–81, 184, 344, 348, 350, 353, 354, 364

attack on Stalin, 183Berlin Sportpalast speech, 172bluff and, 173concessions of, 173confrontation with Bolshevism, 163Four Year Plan, 180gambler and, 182German opposition to, 177increase offensive capability of, 178megalomania, 158Mussolini and, 173and negotiation, 151opposition to, 176planned coup against, 176policies of, 353realism and, 182, 183and territory, 19theatrics and, 172United States and, 345unrealistic threats of, 168views of United States, and, 184

Ho Chi Minh, 201, see also VietnamHobbes, Thomas, 228, 337Hobsbawm, Eric, 22Hoffmann, Stanley, 78Holland, 9, 194, 352Holy Roman Empire, 87, 96, 101, 339,

347Honecker Erich, 301Hoover, Herbert, 330, 358Hore-Belisha, Leslie, 171horizons

longer-term, 361short-term, 361

Hossbach Memorandum, 167Hötzendorf, Conrad von, 103Hoyos, Alexander, 125Huang Hua, 34Hughes, Charles Evans, 232Hull, Cordell, 355






Index378

Hungarians, 104, 106, 109Hungary, 24, 33, 106, 109, 175, 274, 302

border of, 349Huntington, Samuel P., 242Hurricane Katrina, 264Hussein, Saddam, 39, 40, 43, 73, 244,

251, 252, 253, 260, 261, 262, 352and regime, 255

hydrogen bomb, 239Hyland, William, 243hyperpower, 246, 259

American, 247hypothesis

social creativity, 293, see also strategy: social creativity and

idealism liberal, 55

ideas, 10, 130force of, 335history of, 337treatment of, 325

ideational theorists, 268identity, 284, see also SIT (social identity

theory)of a group, 285positive, 306Soviet 291, 297of Soviet Union, 267, 269

ideology, 6, 10, 13, 17, 130, 297, 306, 341, 342, 350, 351

domestic, 342, 352economic, 94influence of, 298Marxist-Leninist, 281Stalin and, 336

Ikenberry, G. John, 247IMF, see International Monetary Fund

(IMF)imminence

criterion of, 251impasse

of 1941, 196catastrophic, 188interservice, 195

Imperial Army, 186, 187, 189, 198, 199, 345

vs. Imperial Navy, 185Imperial Navy, 189, 193, 194, 196, 198,

199, see also Japan“eight-eight” building program, 189and ferry service, 194

imperial necessity, 19imperialism, 37, 101incentives

ideological, 352psychological, 352short-term, 22

Inchon, 214independence

degree of, 349India, 15, 19, 20, 92, 109, 285, 362Indochina, 193, 331

French, 195, 196industrial base, 220Industrial Intelligence Centre (IIC), 135,

140industrial production, 212Industrial Revolution, 11, 20, 23, 28infantry, 225inferiority, 306

Germany’s, 159military, 131

inflation, 141, 181, 314price of oil and, 314

influence, 360East European sphere of, 162Soviet, 292sphere of, 272

influences hierarchical, 360ideological and domestic, 348internal, 350

information, 39, 55, 56, 57insufficient, 45provision of, 57scarce, 55scarcity of, 57, see also information:

scarceInnsbruck, University of, 120inspections

international, 260instability, 343institution, 309institutional frameworks and regimes, 8institutional theorists, 52institutional theory, 50–77

challenges to, 50independent explanatory power of, 70modern, 53problem of, 51refutation of, 59

institutions, 15, 54, 56, 79, 81, 341, 349, 350, 352, 360

adherence to, 343domestic, 36, 46, 350economic, 247, 248endogenous, 50European, 350European multilateral, 310






Index 379

independent effects of, 72international, 39, 53, 54, 63, 67, 68, 69,

265, 308, 349multilateral, 307, 349persistence of, 77role of, 59security, 57stability of, 73

insularity exceptions to, 324

insurgency in Iraq, 349Sunni-dominated, 260

intelligence British air, 138British and French, 130British military, 133French, 133

intentions, 2, 13, 45, 55, 153, 259vs. power, 2

interdependence, 38, 267, 272economic, 39, 343

interest rates, 45interests

class, 348common, 37conflicts of, 65power, 348

internal affairs non-intervention in, 298

internal growth, 11internal resources

mobilization of, 167International Monetary Fund (IMF), 53,

235resources, 363

international norms, 305international organizations,

see also organizationsUS engagement in, 236

international politics, 15game of, 19

international relations, 7, 15, 49Hobbesian approach to, 298“liberal,” 52theorists of, 340United States and, 232

international security, 247, 248international status, 288

Soviet decline in, 290international system, 15

architecture of, 323internet use, 14intervention, 189

American, 35

British, 126Chinese, 212French, 168Russo-French, 98Soviet, 33, 198

invasion, 223German, 159

IR theory, see also international relationsliberal, 36rationalist, 44

Iran, 27, 32, 37, 41, 166, 250, 255, 258, 261, 262, 263

Islamist, 45uprising in, 261

Iraq, 73, 166, 240, 246, 250, 251, 252, 261, 263, 265, 344

Ba’athist, 40, 45insurgency in, 255occupation in, 331UN economic sanctions on, 73

Iraq War, 263, 264Ireland, 314, 363Iron curtain, 297iron ore, 163, 180Ironside, General Edmund, 177irredentism

Italian, 123Ishiwara Kanji, 192Islamists

radical, 35island state, 11Ismay, General, 38isolation, 4, 352

international, 290isolationism, 235, 343

“Fortress America,” 235Israel, 32, 35Israeli lobby, 323issues

distributional, 76, see also conflicts: distributional

Isvolski, Alexander, 110Italian Mediterranean fleet, 175Italians, 104Italy, 21, 33, 90, 97, 105–06, 108, 116,

117, 120, 144, 163, 165, 168, 232, 311, 313

leaders of, 316officials of, 317

Jachtenfuchs, Markus, 320Japan, 4, 14, 18, 19, 26, 27, 31, 108, 163,

168, 175, 185, 189, 190, 191, 231, 232, 235, 238, 281, 324, 335, 344, 345, 353, 355, 358, 359






Index380

democratic, 12imperial, 9insular state and, 324leaders of, 191Meiji, 186population density of, 165relationship with China, 191

Japanese assets American freeze of, 196

Japanese defeat along Russian border, 193

Jefferson, Thomas, 42Jenkins, Roy, 314Jervis, Robert, 290Jews, 162, 163Jodl, Alfred, 173, 174John Paul II, 5Johnson, Dominic, 160Johnson, Louis, 235, 238Johnson, Lyndon, 42, 242, 332Joseph, Franz, 104, 106, 108–12, 115, 116,

117, 118, 120, 126judgments

action, 241, 244instrumental, 241reality, 241value, 241

July Crisis, 347Jupiter missiles, 1

Kadar, Janos, 274Kagan, Donald, 340Kagan, Robert, 240, 255Kahnemann Daniel, 10, 161Kaiser Wilhelm II, 22, 25, 109KAL 007 (Korean airliner), 291kamikaze, 198Kant, Immanuel, 40, 66, 329

“Perpetual Peace,” 40Kantian triangle, 38Katō Tomasaburō, 190, 196, 197Kaunitz coalition, 16Keitel Wilhelm, 176Kennan, George, 237, 263, 328Kennedy, Andrew, 346Kennedy, John F., 355Kennedy, Paul, 22, 233, 340Kennedy, Robert, 2Keohane, Robert, 60, 328, 349Kerensky, Alexander, 33, 46Kershaw, Ian, 17KGB, 2, 281Khrushchev, Nikita, 1, 2, 277, 289, 296,

305

Kim Il-Sung, 214, 212, 214, 236, 237, 346Kim Jong-Il, 260, 261, 362King Alexander, 110King Peter, 110Kissinger, Henry, 34, 158, 160, 237, 243,

255, 289Kohl, Helmut, 297, 298, 316, 317, 318,

319, 320, 321, 331, 350Konoye, Fumimaro, 355Korea, 186, 189, 211, 212, 222, 223, 227,

239, 24138th parallel, 212invasion and, 237

Korea, South, 222, 223, 22738th parallel, 212expelling the United States from, 224intervention in, 203North Korean invasion of, United States in, 224US access to, 223US aircraft and, 261US presence in, 215

Korean airliner Russia shooting down, 291

Korean War, 203, 310, 344, 346, 358Kosovo, 240, 248Krasner, Stephen, 60, 65Krauthammer, Charles, 248Kristallnacht, 149Krosigk, Schwerin von, 134, 135, 181Kuomintang, 209, 346Kurile Islands, 281Kuwait, 244, 353Kwangtung province, 193

La Rochefoucauld, 93labor, 13, 307

shortages in, 180and United States, 277

Lakatos, Imre, 49, 50, 51, 52, 53, 56, 57, 63, 75, 77

Lake, David, 37land, 11, 12

arable, 165land forces

ratio of, 139land power, 11, 12Larson, Deborah, 349, 354Latin America, 22, 231lead, 163leaders, 31, 36, 39, 40, 43, 46, 191, 202,

342, 351, 360Britain and, 346British, 156Eastern European communist, 301

Japan (cont.)






Index 381

preferences of, 207leadership, 6, 8, 31, 35, 39, 41, 263, 352,

353, 357, 358, 359–61, 364and Germany, 359ideological, 6Japan and, 325moral, 283

leadership ideology, 4League of Nation, 19, 19, 156, 159, 173,

237, 308, 309, 358learning, 15Lebensraum, 165, 167Lee, Robert E., 226legalism, 237legislatures

democratic, 38legitimacy, 98, 341

Austrian, 18Legvold, Robert, 288Lenin, Vladimir, 288, 336, 348level

domestic, 42liberal, 36“liberal two,” 23liberalism, 24, 26, 48, 66

economic, 34Libya, 116, 260, 261, 262, 263Litvinov, Maxim, 173, 174Litwak, Robert, 349Liu Shaoqi, 203, 204, 208, 211, 212, 214,

216, 218, 221, 225, 346Mao Zedong and, 220martial confidence of, 210

living space, 162, 165as Lebensraum, 164extension of, 163

Lloyd George, David, 330London, 107, 118, 123

bomb and, 175evacuation of, 138

Longstreet, James, 226Lord Hailsham, 171Lord Halifax, 144, 169, 171, 172, 177Lord Rosebery, 22lore

geopolitical, 50loss, 40, see also gain

domain of, 355Louis Philippe, 23Louis XIV, 32, 89, 92, 95Louis XV, 32Louis XVI, 32, 35, 350Low Countries, 21, 97Luftwaffe, 133, 142, 175, 179Luxembourg, 311

Maastricht, 319, 321, 350Maastricht Summit, 67, 320Maastricht Treaty, 318

and EMU, 319MacArthur, Douglas, 218, 237Macedonia, 116, 117Machiavelli Niccolò, 44, 85, 156Machiavellians, 101Madison, James, 42, 66Madrid

bombing in, 254Madrid summit, 318Magyars, 106, 119, see also HungariansMahan, Alfred Thayer, 186, 197, 345Malta

EC membership and, 319Manchuria, 159, 168, 189, 190, 191, 196,

211manganese, 166manner

risk-averse, 53Mao Tse-tung, 337, see Mao ZedongMao Zedong, 34, 203, 204, 208, 209, 210,

211, 212, 213, 215, 216, 217, 218, 219, 220, 221, 222, 223, 224, 225, 226, 236, 237, 346, 354, 358, 359

confidence of, 221dispatch of divisions and, 225expansionist goals of, 224forces and, 210on guerrilla tactics, 209intervention and, 215martial confidence of, 219“mobile” warfare, 215preemptive motive and, 223preventive motive and, 223revolutionary writings of, 209strategy of, 223UN forces and, 222United States and, 224

Marco Polo Bridge, 192Maria Theresa, 16market, 310, 315market system, 273Marshall Plan, 235Marshall, George C., 243martial prowess, 202, 204, 206, 208, 213,

218, 227Martin, Lisa, 49, 349Marxism, 163, 339, 348Marxism-Leninism, 348material disadvantages, 204material power, 201

lack of, 221materialists, 275






Index382

Matsui Iwane, 192maximizer

short-term, 27May, Ernest, 343, 355Mazarin Cardinal, 88McCloy, John J., 310McNamara, Robert, 243means, 127

military, 24Mearsheimer theory, 233Mearsheimer, John, 63, 69, 78, 79, 80, 82,

83, 99, 101, 103, 111, 115, 122, 123, 126, 129, 137, 158, 159, 230, 234, 238, 245, 308, 322, 325, 327, 328, 330–40, 344, 348

Cold War and, 331, 333failure of foreign policy to mature and,

333“false promise” of international

institutions, 323position of, 337states as rational and, 327view on Hitler, 158

Meiji, 199Meiji Constitution, 186, 189Meiji state, 187Melian dialogue, 228, 229, 230, 233, 234,

343mercantilism, 94merchant marine

US, 42Messina, 312Metternich, Clemens von, 105, 106Middle East, 32, 231Midway, 198military, 28, 213

boldness, 208capability, 332expansion of, 361power, 331and preemption, 254Russian, 125, 126Turkish, 118

military balance, 289military capabilities, 257

US, 257military competitor

peer, 258military expenditure

US, 344military force, 6

use of, 243military measures

of 111, 117military occupation

German, 170of Japan, 337

military parity strategic, 289

military power, 306distribution of, 36

military preparedness Czech, 174

military reductions US, 239

military revolt in Berlin, 150

military spending centrality of, 243in Soviet Union, 300US, 235, 238

military unreadiness German, 175

Mill, John Stuart, 3, 40, 46Milner, Helen, 42, 68Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 294misperception, 130missile crisis

Cuban, 289missiles, 1

medium-range, 299shorter-range, 299Soviet medium-range, 267

Mitterrand, François, 319, 321mobile artillery, 24mobile warfare, 215mobilization, 238

military, 272naval, 169partial, 114, 117, 126Russian, 126

modern nation and Russia, 349

Molotov Vyacheslav, 147telegram to, 337

Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact, 141Moltke, General Helmuth von, 21, 118molybdenum, 166monarchy, 31

expansion of, 127military and, 347survival of, 127universal, 91, 92, 347

monetarist approach, 317monetary policy

German model of, 318monetary system

of Europe, 313European-wide, 314

monetary union, 315, 316, 317, 318, 319






Index 383

Mongolia, 211Monnet, Jean, 308, 309, 310, 311Monroe Doctrine, 264Montenegro, 116, 117, 119Moore, Barrington, 336Moore, John Norton, 37moral power, 336morale

popular, 140moralism, 237Moravcsik, Andrew, 36, 68, 315Morgenthau, Hans, 155, 157, 161, 233Moscow, 26, 217, 310motor vehicles, 213movements

national liberation, 295Mubarak, Hosni, 35multilateralism, 249Munich, 131, 137, 151, 153, 157, 159,

173, 179, 345Munich Agreement, 156Murray, Williamson, 139Mussolini Benito, 175

Nagata Tetsuzan, 192Namibia, 300Nanjing, 192Napoleon, 88, 112, 226, 350

defeat of, 33Napoleonic armies, 21Napoleonic empire, 88Napoleonic Wars, 15, 23, 42, 100, 331Nash solutions, 14nation, 354

rogue and, 349strength of, 351

national identity, 269, 286national interest, 328, 348national policy, 362National Security Adviser, 244National Security Council, see NSC 68

paper 68 and, 238National Security Strategy, 250, 251, 254,

256, 261, 206 and, 244National Socialists, 4national unity

degree of, 31, 42nationalism, 4, 11, 21, 24, 123, 308Nationalists, 211nationality

principle of, 118nations, 353NATO, 26, 33, 53, 63, 64, 307, 344,

see North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)

nature anarchic, 127risk-averse, 61

naval and air power advantage in, 234

naval preparations German, 175

naval race Anglo-German, 109, 123

Navigation Acts, 95navy, 25, 142, 186, 191, 193, 195, 196,

345, 353of American, 195of Japan, 186of German, 22Habsburg, 119

Nazi Germany, 9, 225, 233, 335, 344, 358discussions with, 193

Nazi–Soviet Pact, 183Near Eastern Question, 105needle gun, 24neo-Marxists, 36neorealist theory, 69, 75, 78, 80neorealists, 6, 99, 101, 129, 364Netherlands, 311neutrality acts

American, 143New Thinkers, 288, 296, 299, 301

grand design of, 302New Thinking, 269–72, 275–84, 291–300,

305, see also Gorbachev, Mikhail S.Nicaragua, 33, 34, 278, 300

free elections in, 300nickel, 166Niebuhr, Reinhold, 157Nine Years War, 92Nitze, Paul, 238Nixon, Richard, 242, 243, 330Nomura Kichisaburō, 196, 197non-democracies, 40, 45non-interference

meticulous, 301non-power

institutional, 348normative, 348

nonproliferation norms violation of, 251

norm entrepreneurs, 299normative and institutional restraints, 13normative transformations, 8norms, 17, 54, 81, 91, 299, 352

ethical, 343forward, 291new, 14transformations, 8






Index384

norm-takers, 299North Atlantic Treaty Organization

(NATO), 311Germany’s membership in, 304

North Vietnam, 364North, Douglass, 54, 72, 77Northern Wars, 95, see also RussiaNPT, see Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty

(NPT)NSC 68, 242nuclear arsenal, 269nuclear capability, 259nuclear deployments

American, 289nuclear deterrent, 344nuclear disarmament

norms of, 298Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT),

262Iran and, 262

Nuclear Posture Review, 256nuclear power

balance of, 35nuclear testing

moratorium on, 299nuclear war, 239, 282nuclear weapons, 12, 27, 239, 250, 261,

262, 277, 298elimination of, 299low-yield, 239renunciation of, 298spread of, 27United States and, 220

objectives, 351conflicts of, 66economic, 8long term, 22territorial, 26

occupation Indochinese, 196Manchurian, 191

offensive Anglo-French planned, 144

offensive operations in China, 194

offensive realism, 3, 7, 103, 105, 107, 111, 119, 122, 127, 155, 238, 307, 308, 342, 343, 347

anomalies for, 30offshore balancing, 234, 238, 239, 240oil, 163, 166, 193, 196, 231, 314, 345

American, 199price of, 277

oil shipments from American, 196

oilfields American, 166Middle Eastern, 166

Old Thinking, 272Oneal, John, 38Operation Green, 174opinion

British public, 136domestic, 353German, 170public, 149, 152

opponents building up of, 232

order, 91, 92, 93, 99, 100, 360

international, 91maintenance of, 248quest for, 82, 85, 93, 97, 98, 100, 101,

102, 347, 348return of multipolar, 331

organization theory, 72organizations

international, 73, 76multilateral, 308

Ostend Company, 94Oster, Hans, 176Ottoman Empire, 92, 97, 98, 101, 113,

114, 228, see also Turkey“Young Turks,” 114

outcomes increasing-sum, 20long-term, 26short-term, 25systemic, 29unit-level, 29variable, 24variable-sum, 26

over-balancing, 47over-expansion, 37overextension, 268, 270overseas trade

competition for, 94Overy, Richard, 18Owen, John, 350, 351

Pacific War, 198Pakistan, 262, 285, 362Palacky, Francis, 105Palme Commission, 295Pan Am 103

bombing of, 260Pan Slavism, 123Panama, 240papal influence, 5Pareto frontier, 55, 65, 67, see also Pareto

optimality






Index 385

Pareto optimality, 14partnership

security, 307social, 307

Pašić, Nikola, 121path-dependence, 72Paul, T.V., 202peace, 21, 38, 93, 99, 309

democratic, 41failure of, 23, 16, 20international, 91long-term, 15maintenance of, 241outbreak of, 12success of, 16, 23

peace front, 147Peace of Utrecht, 90, 91, 92Peace of Westphalia, 331peaceful power, 14Pearl Harbor, 10, 18, 191, 197

Japanese attack on, 183peasants, 11peer competitor, 256

forestall rise of, 257Peloponnesian Wars, 228Peng Dehuai, 216, 217, 219, 220,

222, 223presentation and, 217

People’s Liberation Army (PLA), 209People’s Republic of China (PRC), 203,

281perestroika, 274, 278, 300, 305, 354Pericles, 206Persian empire, 226persuasion, 256, 258pessimism, 211Petrograd, 46Pham Hung, 336phony war, 17Pickett George, 226Pig War, 110Pitt, William, 95PLA, see People’s Liberation Army (PLA)Plan Z, 135planes, 166

GermanUS, 219

Plato, 336plebiscite, 170

and Hitler, 170Pleven, René, 310Pöhl, Karl-Otto, 317, 318poison gas, 230Poland, 4, 17, 97, 98, 131, 142, 147, 148,

150, 151, 160, 165, 175, 183, 228, 301, 358

election, 302German attack on, 151offensive against, 137partition of, 93, 94

polarization ideological, 38

Poles, the, 104, 111, 123, 346policy, 329

budgetary or fiscal, 320Churchillian, 184discussion of economic, 141Habsburg security, 112multilateral, 307US, 34

Polish cities bombings of, 151

Politburo, 278political status

Soviets and, 290politics

bureaucratic, 342domestic, 130great-power, 96international, 80power, 94, 101

Pollack, Kenneth, 40Polybian cycles, 15Ponomarev, Boris, 336popular support

amount of, 350population, 14population density, 165populations

welfare of, 362Portugal, 97post-Cold War, 26, 256Powell, Colin, 243Powell, Robert, 61, 62power, 4, 8, 13, 14, 88, 92, 129, 130, 156,

228, 276, 279, 308, 341, 342, 349, 351, 359, 365

absolute, 129America and, 240, 265, 344amount of, 361and Austria, 19calculus of, 364change in, 350concentrations of, 52concept of, 11, 12, 362constituents of, 350cyclical, 348definition of, 10, 363delegation of, 309dominant, 323economic, 28European balance of, 133






Index386

Germany and, 344, 359and glory, 11Habsburg, 106, 119hard, 246, 247impulsions of, 359international, 356, 357, 358,

359, 360international system of, 361losing of, 351maximize, 129of military, 28, 31, 122, 166naval, 186normative, 14notions of, 18over exercise of, 5overuse of, 17, 248projection, 289pursuit of, 28relative, 47, 342rise of Soviet, 190Soviet Union and, 240status and, 288struggle for, 81, 82, 85, 86, 97, 99, 100,

101, 102, 306, 347, 348struggle for vs. quest for order, 100and territory, 19transformations in, 12, 20US hard, 247under-use of, 14

power balance, 5power band, 47power broker, 290power line, 3, 4, 10, 15, 29, 30, 31, 32, 34,

36, 37, 38, 39, 40, 42, 45, 47, 105, 156, 160, 201, 203, 212, 227, 247, 248, 265, 270, 271, 275, 281, 284, 341, 342, 343, 344, 345, 346, 347, 349, 350, 351, 352, 355, 357, 358, 361, 362, 364

above the, 45below the, 31beneath, 44economy and, 321military and, 321realist and, 31of a state, 46

power politics, 78power ranking, 29, 36, 46power resources, 10powers

rising, 27status quo, 122

Pownall, Sir Henry, 174Pragmatic Sanction, 16

Prague, 147, 346march into, 149

Pravda article in, 294

PRC, see People’s Republic of China (PRC)

preemption, 250, 251doctrine of, 349military, 250

preemptive actions option of, 324

preferences of the state, 36variation in, 69

pressures domestic, 27, 351inflation, 180material, 268, 269

preventive war in Iraq, 247

primacy American, 246

Primakov, Evgeny, 282Princip, Gavrilo, 121Prisoner’s Dilemma, 55, 62problem

distributional, 65free-rider, 99of institutional theory, 51

progress scientific, 49

prospect theory, 39, 354prosperity, 332Prussia, 21, 23, 24, 33, 38, 39, 88, 93, 97

eighteenth-century, 9Prusso-Austrian War, 98public officials, 242public opinion

in America, 352in Britain, 18, 136, 170

Pufendorf, Samuel von, 338Pugwash, 295Pusan, 214Putin, Vladimir, 36Pyongyang, 214, 261, 262

Qaddafi, Muammar al, 260, 261Quadrennial Defense Report, 256quarantine, 2

radar chain, 132, 138railways, 24rapprochement, 281rational actor, 327rational-choice theory, 39

power (cont.)






Index 387

rationality, 328, 329assumption of, 329, 348

Ratzel, Friedrich, 165raw materials, 163, 275, 345

Germany’s shortage of, 140, 141shortages of, 180

readiness Russia and, 173

Reagan, Ronald, 34, 35, 40, 282, 298, 329, 360

administration of, 243, 271advisers of, 298Moscow and, 298and Soviet Union, 277

real estate, 24realism, 3, 6, 36, 39, 46, 48, 51, 52, 56, 57,

61, 64, 66, 69, 75, 106, 107, 123, 155, 156, 190, 199, 200, 233, 306, 326, 328, 342, 364, 365, see also neo-realism

assumptions of, 51broadened version of, 61critique of, 111critique of offensive, 111the great virtue of, 48hard, 240, 241, 244modification of, 55new kind of, 127normative doctrine and, 330structural, 31, 129theory of “binding,” 67

realist theory, 2, 53, 232, 321anomalies facing, 54critique of, 348

realists, 6, 37, 42, 45, 48, 52, 53, 55, 79, 103, 130, 145, 154, 228, 230, 234, 235, see also realist theory

balance of power and, 264defensive, 129, 154John Mearsheimer and, 240offensive, 129, 154structural, 29, 47, 82, 129,

see also realism: structuralRealpolitik, 24, 267, 269, 270, 281, 282,

292, 294, 336rearmament, 143, 162, 181

of Britain, 143of Russia, 118

rebels in Cuba, 44

reciprocity role of, 55

reconciliation of France and Germany, 309, 312

Red Army, 175, 183, 348in 113, 159

Red Army University, 210red line, 263reform

Chinese model of, 273Chinese-style, 273of economy, 279to market, 274

regime change, 38, 176, 252, 259, 260, 261, 262, 263, 342, 350, 353, 364

domestic, 33in Tripoli, 260

regime intention, 260regime security

assurance of, 261regime type, 260regimes, 54, 364

conservative, 24domestic, 33, 36, 38, 40international, 54, 70liberal, 38

Reichsbank, 141, 181Reichsrat

Austrian, 121Reichstag, 25Reiter, Dan, 43relationships

power, 341relative power, 233reliable partners, 38religion, 86, 87, 88, 91, 347religious zeal, 352Ren Bishi, 214reneging

fear of, 65rent-seeking, 37republic, 248republicans, 42Republicans, 232

leaders of, 316research and development

for Soviet military, 278research programs, see Lakatos, Imre

degenerate, 50progressive, 50

reserves in Britain, 144international, 163

reservists call-up of, 237

resources industrial, 179shortage of, 194

restraint normative or institutional, 27pledge of, 125






Index388

retrenchment, 278unilateral, 306

Return of History and the End of Dreams, The, 240

reunification of Germany and Europe, 316

revisionist power, 256revolution, 32, 339, 349

in China, 188communist, 295in France, 95scientific and technical, 353social, 21, 23in Spain, 44telecommunications, 52world, 336

Reykjavik, 298Rhineland, 162Ribbentrop, Joachim von, 169Ribbentrop–Molotov pact, 183Rice, Condoleezza, 249Richelieu, Cardinal, 88risk-acceptant, 27rivalry

bureaucratic, 185interservice, 186, 188power, 94Prussian–Austrian, 96

rockets, 239rollback, 238Roman Empire, 246Romania, 17, 142, 147, 165, 183, 301Romanians, 173Romanov, Grigory, 274, 282, 354Rome, 88

treaties of, 312, 313Rome–Berlin Axis, 168Roosevelt, Franklin, 146, 146, 152, 235,

330, 332, 355, 355, 358Rosecrance, Richard, 42, 160, 350Roshchin, N.V., 214Rousseau, Jean-Jacques, 43Royal Air Force, 179Royal Dutch/Shell, 166Royal Navy, 134rubber, 163, 166, 180rule of law, 241Rumsfeld, Donald, 256, 259, 265Russett, Bruce, 38Russia, 9, 15, 16, 18, 22, 23, 24, 25, 33, 36,

38, 46, 88, 92, 93, 97, 98, 103, 104, 105, 107, 108, 109, 110, 113, 114, 115, 116, 117, 121, 123, 125, 127, 128, 163, 172, 228, 232, 246, 249, 257, 262, 264, 285, 288, 349, 355

backwardness of, 288mobilization of, 347political trajectory of, 264Soviet, 32Tsarist, 32

Russo-Japanese War, 108, 188Ruthenians, 104, 111Ryzhkov, Nikolai, 273

Saar, 162, 312Sadowa, 106Sagdeev, Roald, 282Sakharov, Andrei, 296Salvadoran civil war, 300Salzgitter, 166sanctions, 73Sandinista Revolution, 33Sandinistas, 300Sarajevo, 112, 124, 127satellites

Soviet, 301Saudi Arabia, 35, 166Sazonov, Serge, 115, 116, 117, 119, 125Scandinavia, 354Schacht, Hjalmar, 164Schemua, Blasius, 116Schleicher, Kurt von, 31Schlieffen, Alfred von, 108Schmidt, Helmut, 314, 315, 317Schroeder, Paul, 11, 13, 20, 52, 347, 352Schultz, Kenneth, 45Schumacher, Kurt, 310Schuman Plan, 308, 309Schuman, Robert, 308, 309Schweller, Randolph, 30Schwerin, Gerhard von, 177Scowcroft, Brent, 243, 244, 304SDI, see Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI)sea

law of, 95, 347sea-powers, 12, 323, 348Second Hague Peace Conference, 103Second Moroccan Crisis, 103Second World War, 12, 47, 155, see World

War IISecretary of Defense, 259security, 35, 53, 328security assurance, 260Security Council, 73

resolutions of, 252security policy, 319security system

comprehensive, 299international, 294

selection bias, 58






Index 389

self-determination, 170, 353national, 156, 158norm of, 17principles of, 149

self-help, 129September 11, 2001 246, see 9/11Serbia, 27, 103, 104, 105, 107, 108, 110,

114, 119, 120, 121, 122, 124, 127, 347

partitioning of, 125Serbs, 104, 111service sector, 273setting sun

land of, 287Seven Years War, 16, 98, 99seventeenth century, 5Shakhnazarov, Georgy, 282shared sovereignty, 307, 308, 313Shen Zhihua, 217, 219Shenyang, 219Shevardnadze, Eduard, 293, 348Shevchenko, Alexei, 349, 354shipbuilding, 193shogunate

Tokugawa, 186short-term horizons, 18short-term maximizers, 12short term mentality, 16short-war, 144Siberia, 162, 189, 190

Japanese plans to invade, 324Siegfried Line, 174Silesia, 9, 16, 93, 94similarity

method of, 46Simon, Sir John, 144, 152single currency, 319Single European Act, 315, 316single market, 318Sino-Japanese War

of 1894–95, 188SIT (social identity theory), 269, 271, 290,

291, 292, 297, 300, 305, 306situation, 323, 355, 358, 361

definition of, 355, 358, 359, 360, 364perception of, 356

Siverson, Randolph, 32Slavs, 107, 111, 123Slovakia, 123Smith, Adam, 19, 20, 66, 339Snyder, Jack, 37social comparisons, 285social competition, 286, 289

status through, 286social creativity, 286

Social Democratic Party, 310Social Democrats, 317social group, 284social identity theory, 269, 284, 286, 289,

304, 349, see SIT (social identity theory)

social mobility, 270, 286socialism, 339socialization

to Western norms, 268soft power, 266, 289, 291, 305

cooptive and, 292Soissons, Congress, 91Solomon Islands, 198Somalia, 240, 353South Africa, 136, 265South Manchurian Railway, 189South Slav movement

Belgrade’s support for, 125Southward Advance, 193, 194, 195, 196,

197on navy’s terms, 196, see Japan

sovereignty, 308, 309, 318, 350Soviet Communism, 162Soviet empire

splintering of, 244Soviet Five Year Plans, 19Soviet Union, 1, 9, 12, 29, 33, 34, 38,

40, 63, 140, 147, 159, 163, 166, 174, 179, 190–03, 211, 216, 236, 238, 239, 244, 246, 248, 263, 267, 293, 302, 306, 312, 321, 324–25, 332, 337

1941 attack on, 199alliance with, 148, 157and Basket Three, 349collapse of, 305, 348détente policy, 269German attack on, 195hegemony and, 302invasion of, 183pioneer and, 305politics of, 353rearmament of, 324

Spaak, Paul Henri, 312Spain, 21, 88, 92, 94, 97

Habsburg, 92under Charles V, 92

Spanish Civil War, 175Spanish War of 1701–14, 35Sparta, 43, 204Spartans, 2, 230Speer Albert, 18spending

defense, 278






390 Index

military, 34, 257US defense, 246

spheres of influence, 298Spitfires, 138“splendid isolation,” 354SS-20s, 295, see USSRSt John, Henry, 329Stalin, Joseph, 5, 17, 18, 19, 112, 162, 183,

212, 215, 236, 237, 305, 336, 337, 348

Adolf Hitler and, 179air cover and, 222air support and, 221China and, 346death of, 238Great Terror and, 328rebuke of, 347

Stalinism, 301Stam, Allan, 43Standard Oil, 166Stanley, Oliver, 182Starr, Harvey, 32state, 208, 347

and behavior, 348capitalist, 31communist, 31concept of, 308domestic determination of, 342fascist, 31headless, 185, 345Islamist, 31reasons of, 338, 339rogue, 251set of rules and reason of, 339system of, 331

state sovereignty attack on, 253protection of, 253

states, 226, 298, 308aggressive, 10architecture of, 340authoritarian, 37Baltic, 147capitalist, 36democratic, 37, 350democratizing, 37fascist, 38revolutionary, 352rogue, 249, 250, 257, 258socialized, 29status quo, 34

status, 270, 271, 284, 292, 306of great powers, 271improvement of, 292of Soviet Union, 269

status quo holding the, 128imperial and, 355

status-seeking, 270Steel, 166, 228, 308, 311Stein, Arthur, 39Steiner, Zara, 346stock market

Germany and, 181Stockholm Agreement, 299Stockman, David, 329Stoppard, Tom, 339Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI), 277,

279, 299strategies

of advancement, 27economic development, 15long-term, 26longer-term, intensive, 27maximization, 27

strategy, 98, 346of Britain, 130continental, 145German air, 133of Hitler, 163, 164, 168, 175long-war, 143, 144, 145, 153offensive, 145social creativity, 291, 306

strength in economy, 140, 308Germany’s military, 135military, 308technological and economic, 351

Stresemann, Gustav, 31struggles

constant-sum, 24distributional, 67

Stürgkh, Karl, 121Suárez, Francisco, 339subsidies, 363succession

dynastic, 98Sudan, 19Sudetenland, 159, 162, 178, 179suffrage

universal, 25summit

US–EU, 247Sun Zi, 204superiority, 205

margin of, 140superpower, 246, 289, 297, 304

benign, 247, 248military, 240rogue, 247, 253

superpowers, 30

spending (cont.)






391Index

survival, 106, 119, 127, 155issue of, 104

Sweden, 92, 97, 98, 128Switzerland, 21, 90, 352Syria, 88, 278system, 357

anarchic international, 308cooperative international, 292of Europe, 97hegemon of, 308international, 85, 358post-9/11, 26structure, 80unipolar, 246

systems authoritarian, 34bipolar, 102capitalist, 296multipolar, 102socialist, 296unipolar, 102

tactics, 98Taishō Crisis, 188, 189Taiwan Strait, 212

crises in the, 226Taliban, 249, 251, 252

removal of, 265tanks, 166, 213, 230

reduction of, 300tariffs, 21, 22, 350, 363

protective, 19Taylor, A. J. P., 149, 159technological advances

in America, 240technologies

military, 243technology, 13, 28, 291, 363

changes in military, 166high, 14

Tehran, 261, 262Territorial gain, 5territorial objectives, 8territories

attempt to conquer, 351of France, 312

territory, 13amounts of, 11from Serbia, 125Serbia and, 117

terrorism, 249, 264, 2659/11 suicide, 249threat of, 364

Tetlock, Philip, 364Thatcher, Margaret, 43, 298, 300theories

diversionary, 42progressive, 77

theorist ideational, 294prospect, 40

theory, 343baseline, 30contradiction of, 323of framing, 40

Third Reich, 182Third World, 291

expanding in, 290Thirty Years War, 347, 352Thomas, Major General, 142threat, 52

of Chinese, 190disappearance of the Soviet, 53foreign, 186, 189of Serbia, 124of Soviet Union, 63, 175, 310

Thucydides, 2, 29, 43, 156, 228, 229, 234, 341

time horizon, 18, 45Tisza, István, 119, 120, 124, 125titanium, 166Tojo, Hideki, 43Tokyo, 4Toynbee, Arnold, 156Trachtenberg, Marc, 337trade, 11

controlling, 94free, 162, 163gains from, 19international, 93

trade and commerce roles of, 86

trading, 21Tragedy of Great Power Politics, The, 323Transylvania, 119Treasury, 142, 143, 144, 145, 153, 182, 346

view of, 144treaties

Washington naval, 190Treaties of Westphalia, 92treaty

five-power and, 232US–Japan trade, 146

Treaty of Guarantee with Britain and France, 358

Treaty of Paris, 107, 109Treaty of San Stefano, 107Treaty of Versailles, 165trenches, 172Triple Alliance, 25, 108

secret ties to, 119Triple Entente, 25, 113






Index392

Tripoli, 116, 260troops, 225

from America, 225from France, 133from Germany, 170reduction of, 300from Russia, 117Soviet, 304

Trott zu Solz, Adam von, 177Truman, Harry, 212, 218, 235, 236, 237,

238, 239, 241, 242trust, 81Tsarist Russia, 337Tsars, 350tungsten, 166Turkey, 1, 104, 108, 116, 117, 236

US missiles in, 2Tversky, Amos, 10, 161Twelfth Five Year Plan, 277Twenty-One Demands, 189tyranny

ending of, 244Tyrol, 88

U boats, 139Ugaki Kazushige, 193Ukraine, 26ultimatum, 152

from Britain, 151from Germany, 114

UN charter, 241, 244violation of, 237

UN debate in 116, 253

UN General Assembly, 32, 252UN Security Council, 247, 252, 253

resolutions of, 252, 253uncertainty, 161

increased, 64under- or over-use of power,

see also balance of powerunder-balancing, 47unemployment, 19, 212unilateralism, 249

assertive, 247union, 309

economic and monetary, 316unipolar moment, 248unipolarity, 47uniqueness

Soviet, 291unitary actor assumption, 56United Kingdom, 235, 354United Nations, 235, 253, 294, 307

pressure from, 353United Nations Security Council,

see Security CouncilUnited States, 1, 3, 4, 5, 9, 11, 14, 17, 22,

26, 31–35, 38, 43, 44, 45, 46, 95, 134, 144, 163, 165, 166, 189, 191, 193, 228, 230, 231–34, 237, 239, 240–41, 248, 266, 269, 310, 311, 321, 324, 343, 348, 352, 354, 355, 358

dominance and, 228government of, 235intervention and, 240“post-Iraq syndrome,” 265relations with, 312

universal empire failure of, 339

universalism humanistic, 296

unpreparedness of Britain, 135

US Naval War College, 258US State Department, 230US Strategic Defensive Initiative, 277US Treasury, 230US–Cuban crisis, 360USSR, 28, 238, 239, see also Soviet Union

decline of, 292

values, 282set of, 339

Van Creveld, Martin, 206vanadium, 166Vansittart, Robert, 178variables, 361, 364

domestic-political, 31unit-level, 30

Vasquez, John, 52Velikhov, Evgeny, 282Venezuela, 36, 166Venice, 44, 312Vergennes Charles, 20Versailles, 18Versailles peace settlement, 9Versailles Treaty, 17, 161Vickers, Sir Geoffrey, 241Victorian-era Great Britain, 9victory, 226

military, 153Vienna, 21, 23, 107, 115, 117, 119, 347Vienna Settlement

of 101, 107Vietnam, 255, 332Vietnam War, 42, 264Vistula River, 162voice opportunities, 68Volga, 162Volk, 177volte-face, 157






Index 393

vulnerability economic, 179

Walt, Stephen, 39, 327Waltz, Kenneth, 29, 34, 50, 51, 53, 54,

60, 61, 63, 66, 70, 78, 123, 129, 155, 326, 327

war, 17, 21, 37, 43, 44, 62, 63, 93, 127, 134, 139, 181, 190, 198, 199, 309, 344

against Germany, 167against Holland, Britain, and United

States, 194against Spain, 44America and, 18, see also war: United

StatesAnglo-Dutch, 95of attrition, 346avoidance of, 131between Germany and West, 194Bosnia and, 64and Britain, 152Britain goes to, 149Britain’s decision for, 137, 138cause of, 87, 348in China, 193of choice, 246declaration of, 151defensive, 126European, 101, 173failures of, 16, 20German, 130German-Italian, 140Great Power, 24, 364in Iraq, 39laws of, 98Nazi plan for, 164of necessity, 249outbreak of, 140pre-emptive, 43preventive, 118, 251recourse to, 362with Serbia, 118short war vs. long, 135start of Anglo-German, 151two-front, 147United States, 17unlimited, 239

War Hawk Congress, 42War of Jenkins’ Ear, 94War of the Spanish Succession, 90, 94, 98war on terrorism

global, 249warfare

land and, 204Warsaw Pact, 33Washington, 35, 197, 246, 262

Washington Naval Conference, 232Washington Treaty, 345Washington Treaty System, 190wealth

of nations, 19weapon

British blockade, 140weaponry, 98

Soviet, 217weapons inspectors, 41weapons of mass destruction (WMDs),

249, 255, 259arsenal of, 260failure to find, 255forestall acquisition of, 251intelligence and, 264strikes on, 261terminating and, 260

Wehrmacht, 159, 206Weimar Republic, 31Weizsäcker, Ernst von, 176Wells, Samuel, 350Wells, Sherill Brown, 350Weltpolitik, 109Werner Report

of 115, 318West Berlin, 236West Germans, the, 238West Germany, 307, 311

behavior of, 307policy of, 308

West Wall, 173, 175Western Europe, 228, 231, 238, 332Western European Union, 311Western Germany, 350Western Hemisphere, 3Western powers

Japan and, 287Western values

liberal democratic, 300Wilhelm II, 126will, 206, 207, 210Williamson, Samuel, 347Wilson, Horace, 171Wilson, Woodrow, 156, 228, 230, 241,

330, 358Witzleben, Erwin von, 176Wojtlya, Karol, 5Wolfowitz, Paul, 252World Bank, 235world domination, 40world empire

German, 162world market, 339world order

new, 291






Index394

world power, 234, 276share of, 308

World Trade Center, 249World Trade Organization (WTO), 53World War I, 15, 126, 143, 309

Soviet Union withdrawing from, 335World War II, 15, 159, 209, 233, 241

as a mistake, 159world wars, 242, 308, 362WTO, see World Trade Organization

(WTO)

Yakovlev, Alexander, 276, 282, 299Izvestia interview, 304

Yalu river, 223Yamagata Aritomo, 187Yamamoto Gonnohyōe, 186, 187, 188

Yamamoto Isoroku, 197, 199Yamato, 197Yan’an, 211, 219Yangtze valley, 192Yōsuke Matsuoka, 38Yugoslavia, 64

Z Plan, 169Zagladin, Vadim, 282Zelikow, Philip, 241Zero Option, 34Zhang Xi, 220Zhivkov Todor, 301Zhou Enlai, 34, 203, 214Zhu De, 214zone of gain, 354zone of loss, 354, 358, 360






6 x 10.long new - cambridge university...

Documents