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TRANSCRIPT
ANuEsDil-M-154
IMPACTT5A Model: Enhancements andModifications since December 1994
with Special Reference to the Effectof Tripled-Fuel-Economy Vehicleson Fuel-Cycle Energy and Emissions
7ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY
RANSPORTATIONEC HNO LOGY R&D CENTER
Center for Transportation Research
Argonne National Laboratory
Operated by The University of Chicago,under Contract W-31 -109- Eng-38, for the
United States Department of Energy
Argonne National Laboratory
Argonne National Laboratory, with facilities in the states of Illinois and Idaho, isowned by the United States Government, and operated by the Universityof Chicago under the provisions of a contract with the Department of Energy.
This technical memo is a product of Argonne’s Energy Systems (ES) Division.For information on the division’s scientific and engineering activities, contact:
Director, Energy Systems DivisionArgonne National LaboratoryArgonne, Illinois 60439-4815Telephone (630) 252-3724
Presented in this technical memo are preliminary results of ongoing work orwork that is more limited in scope and depth than that described in formalreports issued by the ES Division.
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Available to DOE and DOE contractors from the Office
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ANuEsDflM-154
IMPACTT5A Model: Enhancements andModifications since December 1994
with Special Reference to the Effectof Tripled-Fuel-Economy Vehicleson Fuel-Cycle Energy and Emissions
by M.M. Mintz and C.L. Saricks
Center for Transportation Research, Energy Systems Division,Argonne National Laboratory, 9700 South Cass Avenue, Argonne, Illinois 60439
September 1998
Work sponsored by U.S. Department of Energy,Assistant Secretary for Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy,Office of Advanced Automotive Technology,Office of Transportation Technologies
%8$This report is printed on recycled paper.
Contents
Notation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Abstract . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1
2
3
4
5
6
ktroduction and Ovemiew . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.1 General Worksheets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.2 Vehicle/Technology-Type Worksheets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.2.1 STOCK Module . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.2.2 USAGE Module . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.2.3 EMISSIONS Module . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
hput Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
3.1 Veticle Stwk Calculations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.2 Usage Calculations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.3 Energy Calculations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.4 Etission Calculations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Sample Ouqut . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Proposed Additional Enhmcements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Appendix A: README File . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Appendix B: Estimates of Operational, Upstream, and Total Emissionsand Energy Use and of Global Warming Potential under theBaseline Scenario and High-Market-Share Scenarioby 3X Technology/Fuel Combination . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Figure
1 Logical F10wof~PAC~5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Tables
ix
1
1
4
468
1113
20
20202022
23
29
30
31
37
6
1 Workbook Organization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
Tables (Cont.)
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
B.1
Default Operational Emission Rates by Vehicle Age for Conventional-Technology Automobiles and Light Trucks Operating on ReformulatedGasoline in 2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Default Sales Forecasts for Light.Duty Vehicles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Default Fuel Economy of New Conventional-TechnologyLight.Duty Veticles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Default Emission Rates of Advanced-Technology Spark-IgnitionDirect-Injection or Fuel Cell Vehicles Relative to Those ofConventional SDIVeticles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..o . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Default Emission Rates of Advanced-Technology Compression-IgnitionVehicles Operating on Alternative Fuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Propefiies ofll Potential Fuels for3XVehicles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Upstream Etission Rates by Fuel~Lnd Pollutant in2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Upstream Etission Rates by Fueland Pollutmt in2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Market Penetration of3XVehiclesby Scenmio . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Default Amud Mileage for Autos a.nd Light Tmcks by Age . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Number of Conventional-Technology and 3X Vehicles on the Roadunder the High.Mmket.Share Scenwio . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Number of Conventional-Technolo,gy and 3X Vehicles on the Roadunder the Low-Market-Share Scenario . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Vehicle-Miles Traveled by Conventional-Technology and 3X Vehiclesunder the High.Mwket.Share Scenwio . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Vehicle-Miles Traveled by Conventional-Technology and 3X Vehiclesunder the Low-Market-Share Scenario . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Fuel Use by Conventional-Technology and 3X Vehicles under the High-Market-Share Scenario . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Fuel Use by Conventional-Technology and 3X Vehicles under the Low-iMarket-Share Scenario . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Operational Emissions of NOX under the Baseline Scenario and forConventional-Technology Plus 3X Vehicles under the High-Market-Share Scenario . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ...9..... . . . . . .
7
8
9
14
15
16
18
19
21
21
23
24
25
26
27
28
39
iv
Tables (Cont.)
B.2 Operational Emissions of CO under the Baseline Scenarioand for Conventional-Technology Plus 3X Vehicles underthe High-Market-Share Scenario . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
B.3 Operational Emissions of VOCS under the Baseline Scenarioand for Conventional-Technology Plus 3X Vehicles under theHigh.Mtiket.Shme Scenwio . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
B.4 Operational Emissions of PM1o under the Baseline Scenarioand for Conventional-Technology Plus 3X Vehicles under theHigh.M~ket.Shwe Scenmio . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
B.5 Operational Emissions of SOX under the Baseline Scenarioand for Conventional-Technology Plus 3X Vehicles underthe High.Mtiket.Share Scenmio . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
B.6 Operational Emissions of C02 under the Baseline Scenarioand for Conventional-Technology Plus 3X Vehicles underthe High-Market-Share Scenario . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
B.7 Operational Emissions of CH4 under the Baseline Scenarioand for Conventional-Technology Plus 3X Vehicles under theHigh.Mmket.Shme Scenwio . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
B. 8 Operational Emissions of N20 under the Baseline Scenarioand for Conventional-Technology Plus 3X Vehicles underthe Hlgh.Mmket.Share Scentio . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46
B.9 Operational Energy Use under the Baseline Scenario and forConventional-Technology Plus 3X Vehicles under theHigh.Mmket.Shme Scen~io . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
B. 10 Operational Fossil Energy Use under the Baseline Scenarioand for Conventional-Technology Plus 3X Vehicles under theHigh.Mmket.Sh~e Scenmio . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48
B. 11 Operational Petroleum Use under the Baseline Scenario and forConventional-Technology Plus 3X Vehicles under theHigh-Market-Share Scenario . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
B. 12 Upstream Emissions of NOX under the Baseline Scenario and forConventional-Technology Plus 3X Vehicles under theHigh.Mmket.Sh~e Scentiio . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50
v
Tables (Cont.)
B.13
B.14
B.15
B.16
Bo17
B.18
B.19
B.20
B.21
B.22
B.23
Upstream Emissions of CO under the Baseline Scenario and forConventional-Technology Plus 3XVehicles under theHigh-Market-Share Scenario . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Upstream Emissions of VOCS under the Baseline Scenario and forConventional-Technology Plus 3X Vehicles under theHigh.Mwket.Shme Scenmio . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Upstream Emissions of PM1o under the Baseline Scenario and forConventional-Technology Plus 3X Vehicles under theHigh.Mmket.Shwe Scenmio . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Upstream Emissions of SOX under the Baseline Scenario and forConventional-Technology Plus 3X Vehicles under theHigh.Mmket.Shae Scenmio . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Upstream Emissions of C02 under the Baseline Scenario and forConventional-Technology Plus 3X Vehicles under theHigh.Mwket.Shme Scenmio . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Upstream Emissions of Cm under the Baseline Scenario and forConventional-Technology Plus 3X Vehicles under theHigh.Market.Sh~e Scenmio . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Upstream Emissions of NzO under the Baseline Scenario and forConventional-Technology Plus 3X Vehicles under theHigh.Maket.Shme Scenwio . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Upstream Energy Use under the 13aseline Scenario and forConventional-Technology Plus 3X Vehicles under theHigh-Market-Share Scenario . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Upstream Fossil Energy Use under the Baseline Scenario and forConventional-Technology Plus 3X Vehicles under theHigh-Market-Share Scenario . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Upstream Petroleum Use under the Baseline Scenario and forConventional-Technology Plus 3X Vehicles under theHigh.Mmket.Shme Scenmio . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Total Emissions of NOX under the Baseline Scenario and forConventional-Technology Plus 3X Vehicles under theHigh.Maket.Sh~e Scenaio . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
vi
Tables (Cont.)
B.24 Total Emissions of CO under the Baseline Scenario and forConventional-Technology Plus 3X Vehicles under theHigh.Mmket.Shwe Scenmio . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
B.25 Total Emissions of VOCS under the Baseline Scenario and forConventional-Technology Plus 3X Vehicles under theHigh.Mwket.Shme Scen=io . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
B.26 Total Emissions of PM1o under the Baseline Scenario and forConventional-Technology Plus 3X Vehicles under theHigh.Mmket.Shme Scenmio . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
B.27 Total Emissions of SOX under the Baseline Scenario and forConventional-Technology Plus 3X Vehicles under theHigh.Mmket.Shme Scenmio . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
B .28 Total Emissions of C02 under the Baseline Scenario and forConventional-Technology Plus 3X Vehicles under theHigh.Mmket.Shwe Scentiio . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
B .29 Total Emissions of CH4 under the Baseline Scenario and forConventional-Technology Plus 3X Vehicles under theHigh-Market-Share Scenario . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
B.30 Total Emissions of N20 under the Baseline Scenario and forConventional-Technology Plus 3X Vehicles under theHigh-Market-Share Scenario . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
B.31 Total Energy Use under the Baseline Scenario and forConventional-Technology Plus 3X Vehicles under theHigh-M~ket-Sh~e Scenmio . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
B.32 Total Fossil Energy Use under the Baseline Scenario and forConventional-Technology Plus 3X Vehicles underthe High-Market-Share Scenario . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
B .33 Total Petroleum Use under the Baseline Scenario and forConventional-Technology Plus 3X Vehicles under theHigh-M~ket-Shme Scenmio . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
B .34 Total Global Warming Potential under the Baseline Scenarioand for Conventional-Technology Plus 3X Vehicles underthe High.Maket.Shme Scenmio . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
vii
...Vlll
Notation
3x
B20
CAFECH4CICIDICNGcoCO’2CTR
DMEDOE
EPAEtOH
F-T50FTD
GEMPGGFCGFCVGGEGREETGVW
HDvHFCVHHV
ICEIMPAC’IT
LDvLHVLNGLPG
MeOHMFcvMMBDMPG
NQONOX
tripled fuel economy
biodiesel blend consisting of 20% methyl soyate and 80% conventional diesel
Corporate Average Fuel Economy (standard)methanecompression-ignitioncompression-ignition direct-injectioncompressed natural gascarbon monoxidecarbon dioxideCenter for Transportation Research
dimethyl etherU.S. Department of Energy
U.S. Environmental Protection Agencyethanol
50% Fischer-Tropsch dieselFischer-Tropsch diesel
gasoline-equivalent miles per gallongasoline fuel cellgasoline fuel cell vehiclegallons of gasoline equivalentGreenhouse Gas, Emissions, and Energy Use in Transportation (model)gross vehicle weight
heavy-duty vehiclehydrogen fuel cell vehiclehigher heating value
internal combustion engineIntegrated Market Penetration and Anticipated Costof Transportation Technologies (model)
light-duty vehiclelower heating valueliquefied natural gasliquefied petroleum gas
methanolmethanol fiel cell vehiclemillion barrels per daymiles per gallon
nitrous oxidenitrogen oxides
ix
Om
PMz.5PM1o
R&D
RFG
Notation (Cont.)
Office of Transportation Technologies
particulate matter equal to or smaller than 2.5 micrometers (pm) in diameterparticulate matter equal to or smaller than 10 micrometers (pm) in diameter
research and developmerltreformulated dieselreformulated gasoline
SCF standard cubic foot (feet)S1 spark-ignitionSIDI spark-ignition direct-injectionSox sulfur oxides
ULEV ultra-low-emission vehicle
vehicle-miles traveledVoc volatile organic compounds
x
1
IMPACTT5A MODEL:ENHANCEMENTS AND MODIFICATIONS
SINCE DECEMBER 1994
with Special Reference to the Effect of Tripled-Fuel-Economy Vehicles on Fuel-Cycle
Energy and Emissions
by
M.M. Mintz and C.L. Saricks
Abstract
Version 5A of the Integrated Market Penetration and Anticipated Cost ofTransportation Technologies (IMPAC’IT5A) model is a spreadsheet-based set ofalgorithms that calculates the effects of advanced-technology vehicles on baselinefuel use and emissions. Outputs of this Argonne National Laboratory-developedmodel include estimates of (1) energy use and emissions attributable toconventional-technology vehicles under a baseline scenario and (2) energy use andemissions attributable to advanced- and conventional-technology vehicles under analternative market-penetration scenario. Enhancements to IMPACIT made after itsinitial documentation in December 1994 have enabled it to deal with a wide range offuel and propulsion system technologies included in Argonne’s GREET model in asomewhat modified three-phased approach. Vehicle stocks are still projected in thelargely unchanged STOCK module. Vehicle-miles traveled, fuel use, and oildisplacement by advanced-technology vehicles are projected in an updated USAGEmodule. Now, both modules can incorporate vehicle efficiency and fuel shareprofiles consistent with those of the Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles.Finally, fuel-cycle emissions of carbon monoxide, volatile organic compounds,nitrogen oxides, toxics, and greenhouse gases are computed in the EMISSIONSmodule via an interface with the GREET model that was developed specifically toperform such calculations. Because of this interface, results are now more broadlyinformative than were results from earlier versions of IMPACTT.
1 Introduction and Overview
The Center for Transportation Research (CTR) at Argonne National Laborato~ developedthe Integrated Market Penetration and Anticipated Cost of Transportation Technologies(IMPACTT) model in the early 1990s to assist the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Office ofTransportation Technologies (OTT), with program planning and development. OTT wanted toassess the likely impacts of vehicle technology advances associated with research and development
2
(R&D), including work sponsored by the Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles (PNGV).(PNGV is a cooperative initiative of the U.S. government and the domestic motor vehicle industrydesigned to triple the fuel economy of light-duty vehicles [LDVS].) IMPACTT is a spreadsheetmodel, operating in either an Applem c~rPC-compatible environment, that calculates the effect of
the characteristics of advanced-technology vehicles and market-penetration assumptions on fuel useand emissions, relative to an accepted baseline.
Outputs of IMPACTT include estimates of (1) baseline energy use and emissionsattributable to conventional-technology vehicles and (2) energy use and emissions attributable toconventional- and advanced-technology vehicles under a particular market-penetration scenario.Estimates are based on exogenous projections of conventional-technology vehicle sales, advanced-technology market penetration, and the characteristics of new vehicles — both conventional andadvanced technology. Vehicle characteristics include fuel efficiency; operational emission rates fornitrogen oxides (NOX), carbon monoxide (CO), volatile organic (hydrocarbon) compounds(VOCS), toxic gases (i.e., sulfur oxides [SOX] and particulate matter equal to or smaller than 10 pmin diameter [PM1o]), carbon dioxide (C02), nitrous oxide (N20), and methane (CH4); andincremental capital cost (i.e., the unit cost of an advanced-technology vehicle minus the unit cost ofa conventional-technology vehicle). Annual petroleum displacement and emissions are calculatedby projecting the vehicle-miles traveled (VMT), petroleum use, and emissions for each year’sconventional-technology and advancecl-technology vehicles under a given market-penetrationscenario and subtracting those projections from comparable baseline projections for conventional-technology vehicles.
Several worksheets are needed to analyze the impacts of a portfolio of actual or proposedprograms. For example, to analyze OTT’s Diversified Strategy (DOE 1994), IMPACTT’ requiredthe use of eight worksheets specific to these technologies: (1) conventional internal combustionengine (ICE), (2) advanced-battery electric, (3) grid-connected hybrid, (4) fuel cell, (5) liquefiedpetroleum gas (LPG), (6) compressed natural gas (CNG), (7) flexible-fuel ethanol, and(8) dedicated ethanol.1 Within each of these eight worksheets, IMPACTT operated in a three-module framework. The STOCK module calculated stocks of conventional- and advanced-technology vehicles on the basis of input market penetration, sales, and scrappage rates. TheUSAGE module estimated petroleum displacement and substitute fuel use on the basis of input fuelshares, utilization functions, and energy efficiencies. The EMISSIONS module estimated gaseous(exhaust and evaporative) residuals fronn the projected use of conventional and substitute vehicleson the basis of input operational (i.e., tailpipe/evaporative) emission rates and upstream(i.e., energy production and distributicm per unit of upstream energy generation) emission rates,both by propulsion system and fuel technology.
1 In this version of IMPACTT,each engine/fuel combination was modeled as a composite LDV, the characteristicsof which were weighted as approximately 60’%0auto and 40% light truck. IMPACTT5 contains separate auto andlight truck worksheets to better deal with changes in the market shares and emission rates of these two types ofvehicles.
3
IMPACTT5A differs from earlier versions in several ways.2 First, the eight specifictechnology worksheets have been consolidated into four worksheets representative of a singlemarket-penetration scenario that can (but, for this application, has not been required to)accommodate fractional shares for every candidate technology. This consolidation considerablyreduces redundancy in data fields.3 Second, vehicle turnover in STOCK has been calibrated toreported control totals. Third, fuel shares, utilization functions, and efficiency assumptions in theUSAGE module have been revised. Fourth, and most significant, the EMISSIONS module(which formerly applied a single menu of default values for upstream and downstream process andoperational emissions) has been augmented by age-specific and model-year-specific inputs fromthe U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) MOBILE5b and PART5 emission factor modelsand by outputs from Argonne’s Greenhouse Gas, Regulated Emissions and Energy Use inTransportation (GREET) model. These revisions enable IMPACTT5 to produce highlydifferentiated, fuel-cycle-specific estimates of residuals for the propulsion systems and fuelalternatives under consideration.
lMPAClT5A has been employed in a wide variety of applications and analyses over thepast four years, most notably in the assessment of infrastructure impacts associated with a tripled-fuel-economy (3X) vehicle. That vehicle is currently being developed by the PNGV. The PNGVgoal is to produce, shortly after the turn of the century, a market-ready LDV with fuel economythree times that of the 1995 Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standard. This report usesthe PNGV application to illustrate IMPACTT’S current capabilities. Section 2 presents the modelmethodology. Section 3 describes the content and formats of input data files with special referenceto the PNGV application. The sample outputs shown in Section 4 likewise derive from PNGV-related calculations. Appendix A, the updated README file from the model software, describesthe contents of each of the worksheets. Appendix B, the SUMMARY worksheet from the PNGVhigh-market-share scenario, contains detailed estimates of energy and emissions for each of thePNGV propulsion system/fuel candidates.
Additional enhancements are planned for IMPACTT. Chief among them is to create aheavy-duty vehicle (HDV) version of the model. Another enhancement being considered is toconvert the structure of the modular components from flat (spreadsheet) files to a database than canoperate within the model’s shell framework for specific fuels and technologies of interest. Thisenhancement would enable the model template to be reduced to a single set of worksheets, and datawould be pulled into “cells” only when needed. The result would be a significant reduction instorage requirements for the entire model.
2 IMPAClT5A is the model version used to examine the impacts of tripled-fuel-economy (3X) vehicles. It differsfrom IMPACTT5B, a sister model, in that it treats technologies as being mutually exclusive; thus, multipletechnologies can be accommodated on two advanced-technology worksheets. Both versions have the same internalstructure and energy and emission inputs and may be referred to as simply the fifth generation of the IMPACTTmodel (i.e., IMPACTT5).
3 In otherwords,the eight technology-specificworksheetsin the prior version of the model have been reduced tofour — ICE_CAR-(scenario), ICE_LTRK-(scenmio), pNGV_CAR-(scenario), and PNGV_LTRK-(scenario) —despite the fact that the total class of LDVS has been disaggregate into autos and light trucks.
4
2! Methodology
IMPACTT5 is written in Microsoft EXCEL workbook format (compatible withversions 5.0 and above). The version used for the PNGV infrastructure analysis consists of sixgeneral worksheets and four vehicleltechnology-type worksheets that define the marketpenetration, energy use, and emission characteristics of the LDV technologies that are includedunder a scenario. Automobiles and light trucks are considered separately under these scenarios.Table 1 provides a capsule description of several of the worksheets. The model also includes aREADME file (Appendix A) that provicles a condensed description of the model for the user.
Conceptually, each vehicle/technology-type worksheet may be described in terms of threemodules, and the model itself may be described as a stack of such worksheets. As shown inFigure 1, the STOCK module estimates the population or stock of advanced- and conventional-technology vehicles when given infonrtation on total vehicle sales, advanced-technology marginalcost, market shares, and vehicle depreciation rates. The USAGE module subsequently estimatesVMT, fuel use, and COZ emissions c)f advanced- and conventional-technology vehicles. TheEMISSIONS module then computes fuel-cycle emissions associated with each propulsionsystem/fuel combination by using age-specific and model-year-specific VMT and upstreaml andoperational emission rates calculated from the GREET, MOBILE, and PART models (withappropriate modifications to account for in-use deterioration). Finally, results are aggregated acrossall vehicleltechnology-type worksheets to produce total estimates of vehicle stocks, VMT,emissions, and fuel use for each propulsion systerdfuel combination.
2.1 General Worksheets
For the PNGV application, JMPAC’IT5A requires six general worksheets: ICE_CAR-REF, ICE.LTRK-REF, VMT_SUM, CON_SUM, SUMMARY, and SALES-MPG. TheICE_CAR-REF worksheet contains historical estimates of automobile sales; new-car fuel economyin miles per gallon or MPG (by calendar or model year); and age-specific and model-year-specificoperational emission rates of criteria pollutants (CO, VOC, NOX, and PM1o) for the years1970–1 996. ICE_CAR-REF is linked to SALES-MPG, which contains forecasts of vehicle sales(100% of which are assumed to be conventional vehicless) and new-car fuel economy for1997–2030. ICE_CAR-REF contains forecasts of operational emission rates for criteria pollutants(by vehicle age and model year) and for greenhouse gases (by calendar year), and forecasts ofupstream emission rates for all pollutants including SOX (by calendar year) for both conventional
4 “Upstream” indicates fuel production, processing, and distribution that occur before the fuel is used in vehicles.“Downstream” indicates fuel use in vehicIes and vehicle disposal or recycling. “Operational” indicates only fueluse in vehicle operation.
5 In other words, whether or not advanced technologies enter the market, the same number of vehicles is assumedto be sold.
5
TABLE 1 Workbook Organization
Cell RangeGeneral Worksheet Utilized Data Content
lCE_CAR-REF A-1: EY-106
lCE_LTRK-REF A-1: EY-106
VMT_SUM A-1 : W-52
CON_SUM A-1 : CK-53
SUMMARY A-1 : EC-242
SALES-MPG A-1 : N-45
Projected total automobile sales and share of total light-dutyvehicle (LDV) sales by year to 2030; new car fuel economy(MPG) by model year; vehicle survival rate by age; age-specificand model-year-specific tailpipe emission rates of criteriapollutants (CO, VOC, NOX, PM1O); upstream process emissionrates for these criteria pollutants, SOX, and attributablegreenhouse gases (C02, CH4, N20); PMIO emissions from tire andbrake wear for conventional autos on regular and (as appropriate)reformulated gasoline through 2030.
Same data as those in lCE_CAR-REF, except for light trucks(s8,500 lb gross vehicle weight) instead of automobiles.
Fleet average miles per gallon and vehicle-miles displaced byadvanced-technology vehicles (summarized independently, asappropriate).
all
Substitution fuel use (in physical units, quads, and million barrelsper day) aggregated over all technologies considered in theparticular scenario under examination and reported annually for1990–2030 and cumulatively (as appropriate) for the periods1990–2000, 1990–201 O, 1990-2020, and 1990-2030; count ofadvanced-technology vehicle stocks by year.
Emissions of criteria pollutants and greenhouse gases for eachtechnology considered in the scenario under examination,reported annually for 1990–2030 and cumulatively (asappropriate) for the periods 1990–2000, 1990–2010,1990–2020, and 1990–2030.
Forecasts of auto and light truck sales and fuel economy (bothEPA-rated and on-road) for input into the STOCK and USAGEmodules.
6
I Stock 1--1-........ lJsage EmissiinsMduk? Mcduk? H
f’
6’AFV W&s
I uI
*● Emii of Criteria 1
Pollutants(CO,NO,, VOC,SOX,and PM,n).
eErnii of GreenhouseGases(CQ, CH4ad ~0)
L
FIGURE 1 Logical Flow of IMPACTT5
gasoline and reformulated gasoline. ICE_LTRK-REF contains basically the same data for lighttrucks (S8,500 lb gross vehicle weight [GVW]). Examples of year-specific and vehicle-specificemission rates are shown in Table 2.
Three summary worksheets aggregate results from the vehicle/technology-type worksheets.The VMT_SUM worksheet summarizes fleet average gasoline-equivalent miles per gallon(GEMPG) and vehicle-miles displaced by advanced-technology vehicles. The CON_SUMworksheet summarizes substitution fuel use (in gallons of gasoline-equivalent [GGE], quads, andmillion barrels per day [MMBD]), vehicle stocks, and C02 emissions by propulsion system/fuelcombination. SUMMARY summarizes upstream and operational emissions of criteria pollutantsand greenhouse gases by propulsion systemhel combination. For all summary worksheets,results are reported annually for 1990--2030 and cumulatively (as appropriate) for the periods1990–2000, 1990–2010, 1990-2020, and 1990-2030.
The SALES-MPG worksheet contains reference-case forecasts of auto and light-truck salesand fuel economy, which are input into the STOCK and USAGE modules. Current default valuesfor the reference case are shown in Tables 3 and 4. The default forecasts were derived from AnnualEnergy Outlook, 1997 (DOE 1996). Default values assume that EPA test results overestimateactual on-the-road fuel economy by about 20% (Mintz et al. 1993).
2.2 Vehicle/Technology-Type Worksheets
A variable number of vehicle/technology-type worksheets are embedded in each applicationof the IMPACTT workbook, depending on the specific targets and mission of the application. The
7
TABLE 2 Default Operational Emission Rates by Vehicle Age for Conventional-TechnologyAutomobiles and Light Trucks Operating on Reformulated Gasoline in 2005
Auto Emission Rate (g/mi) Light Truck Emission Rate (g/mi)
VehicleAge NQ co Voc PMIO NOX co Voc PMIO
<1 0.119123456789012345678
0.1620.2330.5980.7240.9971.2561.5001.7321.9522.1592.3552.5402.7132.8753.0283.1723.3093.439
19 3.56120 3.67720+ 3.787
1.7952.0983.2498.675
10.73615.35019.71723.84827.75731.45734.95738.26841.39944.31847.05849.65152.10354.42356.61756.61756.61756.617
0.3200.3300.3530.3760.3960.5020.6040.7050.8000.8910.9721.0521.128
.204
.276
.348
.420
.420
.8934.8934.8934.893
0.0330.0330.0330.0330.0330.0330.0330.0330.0330.0330.0330.0330.033
0.1520.2010.2820.7160.9061.2171.5101.7862.0452.2882.5172.7322.923
0.033 3.0840.033 3.2350.033 3.3770.033 3.5100.033 3.5100.033 3.5100.033 3.5100.033 3.5100.033 3.510
2.0412.3783.6839.820
12.89718.04522.88227.42631.69635.70839.47743.01846.25649.12751.82554.35956.74056,97861.08061.08061.08061.080
0.3720.4130.4780.5390.6540.9311.1931.4421.6801.9072.1232.2642.3492.4312.5152.5952.6772.6776.2646.5046.7367.164
0.0360.0360.0360.0360.0360.0360.0360.0360.0360.0360.0350.0350.0350.0350.0350.0350.0350.0350.0350.0350.0350.035
Source: EPA MOBlLE5b model,
default case is based on the high-market-share scenario developed for the PNGV infrastructureanalysis. That scenario required four worksheets (PNGV_CAR-HIGH, PNGV_LTRK-HIGH,ICE_CAR-HIGH, ICE_LTRK-HIGH), all of which use a common tlyee-module framework.Because this application did not require the consideration of technologies with different fueleconomy, utilization (mihehicle), or market-penetration parameters, it was not necessary toconstruct separate worksheets for each alternative propulsion system/fuel combination. However,since the alternative technologies consume different fuels (with associated differences in upstreamand operational emission rates), it was necessary to add fiel-specific emission details to thePNGV_CAR and PNGV_LTRK worksheets. Similarly, because the PNGV propulsionsysterrdfuel combinations are mutually exclusive, it was not necessary to aggregate results fordifferent technologies into single estimates of total VMT, fuel use, or emissions. Thus, not onlydoes this version of the model (i.e., IMPACTT5A) accommodate fewer technologies than the
8
TABLE 3 Default Sales Forecasts for Light-Duty Vehicles
New Sales (1103) New Sales (103)
Light LightYear Auto Truck Year Auto Truck
1995
19961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012
9,3148,9679,0619,2709,5889,6359,5569,5229,6899,7789,8389,931
10,0049,9449,8709,8949,9539,981
5,8795,9875,8666,1546,5266,7236,7806,839;7,075;7,227
;7,3317,432;7,5177,5027,476;7,494;7,509;7,530
201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030
10,05310,11410,09210,12510,15810,19110,22510,25810,28810,31810,34810,378
7,5447,5697,5207,5327,5447,5577,5697,5817,5977,6137,6297,644
0,408 7,6600,436 7,6790,463 7,6980,491 7,7170,518 7,7360,546 7,755
Source: DOE (1996) for 1997–201 O; extrapolated for post-2010,
version documented earlier, it also requires less summarizing across worksheets. The followingsubsections describe the workbook configuration as applied to the fuel economy and marketpenetration targets of the PNGV.
2.2.1 STOCK Module
The first and largest component of the vehicle/technology-type worksheets is the vehicleSTOCK module. The module calculates the stock or population of advanced-technology vehiclesby forecast year. New vehicle sales, market-penetration rates for advanced-technology vehicles,and scrap value are the key determinants of conventional- and advanced-technology vehicle stockin each forecast year. Computations are performed for conventional vehicles in the ICE_CAR-REFand ICE_LTRK-REF worksheets and for corresponding advancedh-eplacement-technologyvehicles in a worksheet devoted either to a specific technology or to a market penetration case inwhich several technologies (each with [acharacteristic emission rate, but with fuel efficiency heldconstant across technologies) are combined. The PNGV application is an example of the latter
9
TABLE 4 Default Fuel Economy of New Conventional-TechnologyLight-Duty Vehicles
Fuel Economy (MPG)
On Road EPA Test Total LDV
Light Light
Year Auto Truck Auto Truck On Road EPA Test
19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018
201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030
22.24
22.40
22.08
22.56
22.40
22.64
22.40
22.0022.0022.2422.4022.6423.0423.4423.6023.8424.1624.4024.6424.9625.2025.4425.6025.7625.9226.0826.1726.2626.3526.4426.5326.6226.7126.8126.9026.9927.0827.1827.2727.3627.46
Source: DOE (1996).
16.5617.0416.6416.8016.6416.3216.3216.4016.4016.4016.4016.4016.6417.0417.0417.2817.4417.6817.8418.0818.3218.5618.8018.9619.2019.3619.4719.5719.6819.7919.9020.0120.1220.2320.3520.4620.5720.6920.8020.9221.03
27.8028.0027.6028.2028.0028.3028.0027.5027.5027.8028.0028.3028.8029.3029.5029.8030.2030.5030.8031.2031.5031.8032.0032.2032.4032.6032.7132.8232.9433.0533.16
33.2833.3933.5133.6233.7433.8533.9734.0934.2034.32
20.70
21.30
20.80
21.00
20.80
20.40
20.40
20.50
20.50
20.50
20.50
20.50
20.80
21.30
21.3021.6021.8022.1022.3022.6022.9023.2023.5023.7024.0024.2024.3324.4724.6024.7424.8825.0225.1525.2925.4325.5725.7225.8626.0026.1426.29
20.1520.3419.9120.0819.7119.6919.4919.4019.3619.4419.4719.5519.8520.2320.2820.5120.7420.9821.1721.4421.6921.9422.1522.3222.5422.7122.8222.9223.0323.1323.2423.3523.4523.5623.6723.7723.8823.9924.0924.2024.31
25.1925.4224.8825.1024.6324.6124.3724.2524.2024.3024.3424.4424.8125.2925.3525.6425.9226.2226.4626.8027.1127.4327.6927.9128.1828.3928.5228.6528.7928.9229.0529.1829.3229.4529.5829.7229.8529.9830.1230.2530.39
10
structure: there are four scenario-specific sheets for the high-market-share scenario from 2007through 2030, and an equal number for the low-market-share scenario, which is modeled inexactly the same way in a separate workbook. These sheets are therefore called PNGV_.CAR-EHGH, ICE_CAR-HIGH, PNGV_LTRK-HIGH, and ICE_LTRK-HIGH. Had the mission ofthis application been to examine the combined effect of different fuelhechnology combinationsoffering fuel efficiencies and emission characteristics that differ from one another within a singleforecast year, there would have been separate worksheets for each combination, with effectively nolimit on the potential worksheet count.
In any given year, the equation for new (age = O) advanced-technology vehicles (cars orlight trucks) is based on the market penetration for that technology as a share of total sales of thatvehicle class (cars or light trucks). A vintaging stock model (based on Greene and Rathi 1990) isthen used to estimate the number of vehicles in a given year by age. For new vehicles:
Vij = SALESi X F’i .
For all other vintages (age = 1, .... 20+):
Vij = Vi-1,j-1 X[ 11_1+eAO + MCi X Al X (1-DRATE)j ‘]
7
where
i = year index, 1990, .... 2030;
j = age index, O, .... 20+;
Vij = number of advanced-technology vehicles in year i at age j;
SALESi = vehicle sales in year i;
Pi = market-penetration rate in year i;
DRATE = price depreciation rate, generally set to O.15;
MCij = marginal cost of a. new advanced-technology vehicle sold in year idivided by annual miles at age j;
(1)
(2)
f%) = asymptotic survival parameter; and
Al = new car scrappage parameter, eAl.
II
Equation 2 can be algebraically reformulated as:
Vi_l,j-1Vij = Vi-1,j-1 – (3)
1+ eAo+MCi X Al X (l-DRATE)J “
The total number of advanced-technology vehicles in any year is then the summation acrossall ages of advanced-technology vehicles:
Vi = xv ij .
j
(4)
2.2.2 USAGE Module
The major inputs to the USAGE module are the output of the STOCK module (vehiclestock by vintage), an age-dependent utilization rate (annual VMT per vehicle), and energyefficiencies.6 The major outputs are VMT, VMT-weighted MPG, and substitution fuel use. VMTis computed as the sum of the product of vehicles and vehicle use by vintage. Substitution fuel useis computed as total VMT divided by VMT-weighted GEMPG. Fuel use is reported in GGE andconverted into MMBD and quads assuming 42 gal per barrel and either 113,000 or 115,500 Btuper gallon (i.e., the lower heating value of conventional gasoline or reformulated gasoline). Noconversion into barrels of imported oil is made within the model.
First, VMT per vehicle is computed as in Equation 5:
Mj = Mo X e(uDw~ x j) ,
where
Ml = annual miles per vehicle at age O,
Mj = annual miles per vehicle at age j, and
UDRATE = usage degradation rate.
(5)
6 Note that age-dependent utilization can be adjusted to account for limited-range vehicles. Thus, for example,battery-powered electric vehicles might travel only two-thirds as many miles per year as conventional-technologyvehicles of the same age. Since battery-powered electric vehicles are not under consideration for 3X vehicles, thiscapability was not used in the PNGV application.
12
Results from the vehicle stock model (i.e., the number of vehicles at a given age) are then
combined with the exogenous variable Mj (miles traveled for a given age) to determine VMT in anygiven year. The equation is:
VMTi = YA VMTij = z Vij X Mj , (6)
.i j
where
Mj = annual miles per vehicle at age j and
WWI’jj = total VMT in year i al age j.
An advanced-technology vehicle’s impact on energy use includes not only the quantity ofalternative fuel (if any) consumed by vehicles incorporating that technology but also the quantity ofpetroleum displaced. In earlier versions of IMPACTT, displacement was computed directly. InIMPACTT5A, displacement is left to the analyst — as baseline fuel use minus PNGV high-(orlow-)market-share fuel use. Within the USAGE module, substitution-fuel use (in GGE) iscomputed as the sum of the product of VMT and advanced-technology fuel efficiency for eachvintage.
[
Vij X Mj Vj,j+l x Mj+l + Vi,j+zz X Mj+z2SFUELi = ~ .+
)GEMPGk.1 ““- GEMPGk_22 ‘(7)
j GEMpGk
where
SFUELi =
GEMPGk =
substitution fuel use (in GGE) in year i and
gasoline-equivalent miles per gallon for model year k.
For flexible-fuel vehicles, five additional parameters can be included in the USAGEmodule. These are alcohol share of reformulated gasoline (RFG), ethanol and methanol shares ofalternative fuel use, and ethanol and methanol fuel use. Since flexible-fuel vehicles are not amongthe technologies being considered by the PNGV, the equations permitting fuel use to be split intotwo component fuels were deleted from the PNGV application. Readers interested in modelingflexible-fuel vehicles should consult the earlier documentation (Mintz et al. 1994).
Similarly, for electric and grid-connected hybrid vehicles, two additional parameters,transmission and distribution efficiencies, could be used to account for losses between the power
13
plant and vehicle. They were, in fact, included in earlier versions of the model.T However, electricand grid-connected hybrid vehicles are not among the technologies being considered by thePNGV.
2.2.3 EMISSIONS Module
The EMISSIONS module estimates emissions of NOX, CO, VOCS, SOX, PM1o, CH4,N20, and C02. Emissions are estimated for the entire fuel cycle, including upstream fuelproduction/processing activities and downstream vehicle operations.
2.2.3.1 Operational Emissions
Emissions associated with vehicle operations (i.e., operational emissions) includeevaporative emissions, exhaust emissions, and emissions produced by brake and tire wear. NOX,CO, VOC, and PM1o emissions from the operation of conventional- and advanced-technologyvehicles are computed as the sum of the product of vehicles, miles per vehicle, and emission rates(in g/mi), all disaggregated by vehicle age (or vintage) and model year. Emission rates are obtainedfrom MOBILE5b for vehicles aged zero to 20+ years and for model years from 1968 to 2003.Tier 2 emission standards are assumed to come into effect in model year 2003. Rates are assumedconstant beyond model year 2003.
In the default case, emissions are computed for all vehicle operations. In many cases,however, the portion of emissions that occurs in urban areas is of most concern to analysts andpolicymakers. Thus, for the PNGV infrastructure analysis, urban emissions were estimated on thebasis of assumptions about the urban share of vehicle sales and of VMT per vehicle. Only urbanemissions are reported in Wang et al. (1998). Total emissions are reported in Appendix B of thisdocument.
Operational emissions (in thousands of metric tons) of criteria pollutants (except SOX) for agiven propulsion systen-dfuel combination are obtained as follows:
[
VijOPEMISilm = ~
CFi— X Mj X opERjk]m x
jk 1,000 11,000,000 ‘(8)
7 However, the accounting for these losses was somewhat inconsistent in earlier applications, since upstream energyuse was not calculated for any of the other technologies being modeled. In the PNGV infrastructure application, aseries of rates from GREET 1.4 are used to compute upstrem emissions and energy use for all technologies.
where
OPEMISi}m =
opERjklm =
CFi =
14
operational emissions in year i of pollutant 1from fuel m,
operational emission rate at vehicle age j for model year k ofpollutant 1from fuel m,
VMT calibration factor in year i.
For conventional gasoline-fueled vehicles, operational emission rates by age, model year,and pollutant (OPERGaSolinejk]) are obtained directly from MOBlLE5b. For advanced-technologyvehicles with spark-ignition direct-injection (SIDI) engines or with fuel cells, two ratios areapplied. One reflects the ratio of Tier 2 to Tier 1 standards, and the other reflects the emissionspropensity of the propulsion system/fuel combination relative to that of a conventional-technologygasoline vehicle (Table 5). For advanced-technology vehicles with compression-ignition direct-injection (CIDI) engines, Tier 2 equivalent standards are assumed to apply. Table 6 presents thedefault emission rates assumed for new 3X CIDI engines.
TABLE 5 Default Emission Rates of Advanced-Technology Spark-Ignition Direct-Injection(SIDI) or Fuel Cell Vehicles Relative to Those of Conventional SIDI Vehicles
Ratio c)f Emission Rate of Advanced-Technology Vehicleto Tier 2 Emission Rate of RFG-Fueled SIDI (O/.)
Methanol Ethanol CNG LNG LP G Hydrogen Methanola GasolineaPollutant SIDI SIDI SiDl SIDl SIDI Fuel Cell Fuel Cell Fuel Cell
VOC (exhaust)VOC (evaporative)coNOXPM (exhaust)PM (brake and tire)CH4CN20d
55100
608010
10065
100
55 15100 0
60 4080 6010 1
100 10065 1,000
100 100
150
4060
1100
1,000100
75 00 0
60 090 0
1 0100 100100 0100 0
0.5 0.520b cjob
1 11 10 0
100 1000 00 0
a Based on Kumar (1997).
b Smaller tank size for 3X vehicles helps reduce evaporative emissions.
c Gasoline vehicle CH4 emissions = 0.074 g/mi.
d Gasoline vehicle N20 emissions = 0.005 g/mi.
Is
TABLE 6 Default Emission Rates of Advanced-Technology Compression-Ignition VehiclesOperating on Alternative Fuels
Emission Rate (g/mi) per Fuela
Pollutant RFDb DME B20 F-T50
VOC (exhaust) 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125VOC (evaporative) O 0 0 0co 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7NQ 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2PM (exhaust) 0.04 0.01 0.04 0.04CH4C 0.008 0.008 0.008 0.008N@ 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.005
a
b
c
RFD = reformulated diesel, DME = dimethyl ether, B20 =20% methyl soyate blend, and F-T50 = 50% Fischer-Tropsch diesel blend.
Current California diesel has a sulfur content of about150 parts per million (ppm). RFD was assumed to have asulfur content of 100 ppm to meet the 0.04-g/mi PM1 oemission standard.
Based on GREET estimates for conventional diesel.
For all model years beyond 2003, operational emissions are then calculated as:
OPERj]m = OPERGa~olinejl X TIEFQ1 X ERATIQm ,
where
OPERGasolinejl = operational emission rate from gasoline-fueled conventional-
technology vehicles at age j for pollutant 1,
TIER2] = ratio of Tier 2 to Tier 1 emission standard for pollutant 1,and
(9)
ERATIOlm = ratio of the emission rate of pollutant 1 from fuel m to its ratefrom gasoline.
where
OPSOXi~ = operational emissions of SOX in year i for fuel m,
FUELim = fuel use (in GGE) in year i for fuel m,
DENSITYim = fuel density (in g/gal) in year i for fuel m, and
SRATIOim = sulfur ratio (by weight) in year i for fuel m.
2.2.3.2 Upstream Emissions
Emissions are produced by such upstream activities as primary energy recovery; primaryenergy transportation and storage; fuel production; and fuel transportation, storage, and
TABLE 7 Properties of 11 Potential Fuels for 3X Vehiclesa
Carbon SulfurLHV I-IHV Density Ratio Ratio
Fuel (Eltu/gal) (Btu/gal) (g/gal) (Wt) (Wt)
16
For SOX, emission rates are not available from MOBILE5b. Thus, operational emissionsare calculated as a function of fuel characteristics (Table 7) by using the following equation:
OPSOXi~ = ‘uELimSRATIOim 64
X DENSITYim X1,000,000 1,000 ‘z’
(lo)
Reformulated gasoline (RFG)Reformulated diesel (RFD)Methanol (NleOH)Ethanol (EtOH)Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG)bLiquefied natural gas (LNG)b
Dimethyl ether (DME)b
Methyl soyate (biodiesel)Fischer-Tropsch diesel (FTD)Natural gas (per SCF)Hydrogen (Hz, per SCF)
113,000128,500
57,00076,00084,00072,90068,200
117,100118,800
928274
122,000138,700
65,00084,50091,30080,900
73,600128,500128,500
1,031324
2,7493,2402,9962,9962,0001,5892,5283,3462,915
20.52.4
0.8300.8700.3750.5220.8200.7’400.5220.7800.8600.7380.000
0.0001000.0001000.0000070.0000070.0000000.0000000.0000000.0000100.0000100.0000070.000000
a LHV = lower heating value, HHV = higher heating value, SCF = standard cubic foot.
b Under pressure.
17
distribution. Upstream emissions are estimated as the product of the quantity of fuel consumed invehicle operation and an upstream emission rate that includes contributions from all these sources.Upstream emission rates (in g/gal) are obtained from GREET 1.4 outputs. Tables 8 and 9 presentthe emission rates used for the PNGV analysis. Upstream emissions are calculated as:
UPEMISilm = FUELim X UPERilm , (11)
where
UPEMISilm = upstream emissions in year i of pollutant 1from fiel m and
UPERilm = upstream emission rate (in g/GGE) in year i of pollutant 1 fromfuel m.
2.2.3.3 Value of Emissions
IMPACTT5 contains damage cost factors for NOX, CO, and VOC that are based on the cost(in 1992 $/ton) of removing a ton of NOX, CO, and VOC from stationary sources. Developed bythe Congressional Budget Office, the factors can be used to convert physical quantities into dollarvalues that can then be summed across years and pollutants to produce a single environmental costassociated with each propulsion system/fuel combination. These factors were not used in thePNGV infrastructure analysis. IMPACTT5 does not contain damage cost factors for SOX andPMIO.
18
TABLE 8 Upstream Emission Rates by Fuel and Pollutant in 2007
Upstream Emission Rate (cJ/GGE) per 106 Btu of Fuel Produced
Pollutant RFG RFD CNG LNG LFG Methanol DME F-T Diesel
All Locations
Voc 18.126 9.532 7.222 27.577 8.950 34.569 30.452 6.258co 24.133 21.066 27.667 60.077 23.737 80.318 79.750 45.196NO, 38.047 26.832 66.086 112.926 32.382 164.641 163.778 63.562PMIO 4.022 2.703 3.618 11.699 1.678 4.072 3.981 2.403
Sox 27.002 17.219 35.707 16.537 9.848 9.292 8.740 9.266CH4 89.572 78.441 220,742 221.533 102.392 150.830 150.295 110.821N20 2.395 1.474 4.126 10.644 0.875 1.118 1.084 0.639co* 21,257 13,348 17,636 17,616 10,377 30,623 31,430 58,966.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Urban Locations
Voc 4.869 1.727 0.426 4.020 2.747 3.187 1.561 0.204co 1.471 1.381 1.446 4.047 1.886 1.197 1.007 0.849NOX 2.159 1.946 3.281 4.120 2.344 1.576 1.329 1.088PMIO 0.141 0.135 0.082 3.928 0.188 0.163 0.137 0.113
Sox 0.234 0.207 0.113 3.938 0.244 0.709 0.594 0.530------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ . . ---- ------ ------ ------ ---..-
Upstream Emission Rate (g/GGE) per 106 Btu of Fuel Produced
Corn CornEthanol: Ethanol: Cellulosic
Pollutant NG HP Solar Hz Wet Dry Ethanol Biodiesel F-T50 B20
All Locations
Voc 32.667 9.443 29.773 30.276 25.279 93.629 7.895 25.174co 94.726 25.911 118.909 121.255 89.152 57.621 33.131 27.865NO, 245.018 104.376 175.603 188.932 58.592 102.149 45.197 40.841
PMIO 9.834 6.717 51.470 51.470 21.543 4.759 2.553 3.085
Sox 74.173 68.583 89.158 100,884 -39.819 25.092 13.243 18.684
CHq 207.696 65.901 107.598 1!7.235 -17.305 53.535 94.631 73.808N20 9.194 8.380 43.442 46.751 14.850 6.958 1.056 2.494
...co2 ......++<.................................o.6..6 .. .......26.60.0.. ..m.......4.6.233. . ..........5.0..599...e.a..+...<.6.63o.m.........2...9.48.a......aa.36.a..57. . ......e.+...4..948..
Urban Locations
Voc 2.390 2.388 3.733 3.759 3.557 2.326 0.965 1.838co 6.458 6.448 4.122 4.350 2.910 3.995 1.115 1.867NO, 15.869 15.877 7.961 8.365 5.736 3.578 1.517 2.249
PMIO 0.318 0.316 0.536 0.554 0.446 0.129 0.124 0.134
Sox 0.243 0.236 0.284 0.326 0.077 0.164 0.369 0.199
19
TABLE 9 Upstream Emission Rates by Fuel and Pollutant in 2030
Upstream Emission Rate (g/GGE) per 106 Btu of Fuel Produced
Pollutant RFG RFD CNG LNG LPG Methanol DME F-T Diesel
All Locations
Voc 17.365 8.908 3.439 17.318 6.993 17.059 12.955 3.592co 23.374 20.615 26.955 57.645 23.226 64.796 64.231 41.264NOX 32.474 23.243 53.706 106.512 29.163 125.823 125.056 55.696
PMIO 3.626 2.446 2.624 11.597 1.504 3.352 3.268 2.138
Sox 20.540 12.889 18.304 14.748 6.731 6.695 6.347 7.030
CH4 89.646 78.482 221.159 220.866 102.384 140.996 140.459 110.267
N20 0.308 0.197 0.444 10.251 0.178 0.619 0.613 0.298
co* 21,251 13,344 17,811 17,650 10,377 23,548 24,355 58,969.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Urban Locations
Voc 4.806 1.676 0.209 4.019 2.700 3.161 1.540 0.185co 1.525 1.418 1.646 4.069 1.917 1.210 1.019 0.863NOX 2.240 1.999 3.612 4.160 2.387 1.568 1.324 1.089
PMIO 0.147 0.139 0.104 3.930 0.191 0.165 0.138 0.115Sox 0.178 0.160 0.069 3.931 0.194 0.517 0.433 0.386----- . . . . . ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ---
Upstream Emission Rate (g/GGE) per 106 Btu of Fuel Produced
Corn CornEthanol: Ethanol: Cellulosic
Pollutant NG H2 Solar H2 Wet Dry Ethanol Biodiesel F-T50 B20
All Locations
Voc 13.194 4.350 23.868 22.244 25.212 73.709 6.250 20.961co 86.162 25.085 93.420 76.473 89.041 47.979 30.940 25.705NOX 201.146 80.690 152.087 169.920 73.246 76.257 39.469 33.103
PMIO 7.494 4.664 47.075 44.451 22.989 3.287 2.292 2.603
Sox 37.234 32.669 40.460 6.730 -13.686 10.411 9.960 12.428CH4 203.894 66.401 95.581 107.360 -19.366 42.337 94.375 71.759
N20 1.362 0.781 36.501 35.091 20.399 3.823 0.247 0.872
co* 107,876 26,538 37,171 34,173 -7,084 17,344 36,156 14,088.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Urban Locations
Voc 1.006 0.997 3.670 3.686 3.524 2.247 0.931 1.782co 6.788 6.769 4.140 4.262 2.555 3.981 1.140 1.895NOX 16.191 16.179 8.031 8.357 5.052 3.560 1.544 2.289
PMIO 0.364 0.361 0.537 0.542 0.411 0.130 0.127 0.137
Sox 0.149 0.145 0.249 0.248 0.131 0.109 0.273 0.150
20
3 Input Data
3.1 Vehicle Stock Calculations
IMPACTT5 operates on a set of assumptions that define a particular scenario. Chief amongthese assumptions are the market-penetration rates for advanced-technology vehicles. The defaultassumption in IMPACTI’5 is that advanced-technology vehicles will replace conventional-technology vehicles on a one-for-one basis. IMI?ACTT5 can model technologies that do notnecessarily replace conventional-technology vehicles (e.g., advanced-battery electric vehicles,which some claim may have a unique, incremental market demand), if appropriate modifications tothe sales forecast and conventional-technology market assumptions are made. However, for thePNGV infrastructure analysis, such modifications were not necessary. Market penetration wasassumed to be identical for all candidate technologies in the LDV’ market. The methodology used todevelop the PNGV high- and low-market-share scenarios is discussed in Wang et al. ( 1998).Previous analyses used a vehicle choice model known as AVS (Fulton 1991) to generate themarket-penetration rates, although any vehicle choice model or set of assumed penetration ratescould provide the required inputs for IMPACTT5. Table 10 presents the market-penetrationassumptions of the two scenarios useci in the PNGV infrastructure assessment. Note that 3Xvehicles are assumed to penetrate car and light truck markets equally.
To estimate the number of new advanced-technology vehicles on the road in a given year,market-penetration rates must be combined with an external forecast of new vehicle sales byvehicle type, and vehicles must be tracked through a survival or vintaging procedure. The defaultvehicle sales forecast contained in IMPACTT is provided in Table 3. The internal scrappagefunction uses two basic input parameters, AO and AI, which are set at AO = 0.7355 andA] = 6.0917 in the current version of the model.
3.2 Usage Calculations
The USAGE module estimates VMT per year as a function of vehicle age. The keyparameters, miles per year for a new vehicle and a degradation rate, are the same for all vehicletechnologies examined in the PNGV infrastructure assessment. (Electric vehicles, which mighthave lower utilization rates than conventional LDVS, were not examined.) Default values (mi/yr byvehicle age) are shown in Table 11.
3.3 Energy Calculations
Energy calculations are very simple in IMPACTT5. The calculation of substitution-fuel useis a function of VMT and new advanced-technology vehicle MPG. For all LDVS, MPG (as
21
TABLE 10 Market Penetrationof 3X Vehicles by Scenario
Percent Shareof New LDV Sales
High Market Low MarketYear Share Share
2006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030
0.00.10.30.61.01.62.43.75.89.0
13.017.021.025.029.033.738.443.147.852.556.658.759.559.860.0
0.00.51.11.72.12.63.23.94.85.87.18.7
10.612.815.418.421.825.730.0
TABLE 11 Default AnnualMileage for Autos and
Light Trucks by Age
Vehicle MilesAge per Year
<11-22-33-44–55-66–77–88-99–lo
lo–l 111-1212–1313–1414-1515–1616-1717–1818-1919–2 O20–2121+
14,52313,87113,24812,65312,08511,54211,02410,52910,056
9,6059,1748,7628,3687,9937,6347,2916,9646,6516,3526,0675,7955,534
Sources: Greene and Rathi(1990) and U.S. Bureau ofthe Census (no date).
Source: Wang et al. (1998).
3.4 Emission Calculations
The EMISSIONS module calculates annual emissions from vehicle operations andupstream activities beginning in the first year for which all parameters are supplied. For bothautomobiles and light trucks, MOBILE5b reports operational emission rates for model yearsbeginning in 1967. Thus, IMPAC’IT5 calculates baseline operational emissions for model year1967 and later vehicles beginning in calendar year 1970. Emissions are calculated for conventional-technology vehicles from model year 1990 onward under all other scenarios, and for advanced-technology vehicles from model year 2007 under the PNGV high-market-share scenario and frommodel year 2013 under the PNGV low-market-share scenario. Note that because calculations arefor new vehicles sold in the year of the calculation plus surviving vehicles of older vintages forwhich all parameters had been supplied, values reported as “total operational emissions” are belowtrue totals for the first 10-15 years of the calculation.
Under alI scenarios (baseline, high, and 10W)Tier 2 emission standards are assumed to gointo effect in 2003. No further emission improvements are assumed. Note that MOBILE5 emissionrates include the effect of deterioraticm over time for conventional-technology vehicles. Foradvanced-technology vehicles, IMPACI”T5 can capture deterioration over time via input emissionrates by vehicle age. For the PNGV application, emissions of advanced-technology S1 and CIengines are assumed to increase over time at the historical rates for conventional-technology S1 andCl engines, with one notable exception. Emissions of CI engines tend to increase less rapidly overtime than emissions of S1 engines, and all CI fuels are assumed to meet the stringent ultra lowemission vehicle (ULEV) standard of 0.04 g/mi for PM 10. If PM 10 emissions from advanced-technology CI engines were assumed to increase at the same historical rate as those fromconventional-technology CI engines, older CI engines would emit less PMIo than S1 engines of thesame age. Since this is unlikely, PM 10 emissions from CI engines were assumed to increase overtime at the same rate as those from S1 engines.g
For upstream emissions, input rates (in g/gal) are obtained from GREET 1.4. Furtherinformation on the methodology and input assumptions behind those rates may be found in Wanget al. (1998).
22
estimated by the EPA test cycle) is adjusted by a factor of 0.814 to reflect a typical discrepancy (orgap) between test conditions and actual on-road experience. In earlier versions of the model, theBtu content of the candidate fuel was also used in the equation. Now, however, all quantities arereported in gallons of gasoline-equivalent.
8 CI engines are likely to require after-treatment to meet Tier 2 standards. Deterioration of after-treatment devicesaccounts for much of the increase in emissions by older S1 engines. Future CI engines equipped with after-treatment devices thus may be expected to experience larger increases in emissions over time than current CIengines.
23
4 Sample Output
Tables 2–1 1 contain the key inputs needed to define a full IMPACIT5 scenario. OutputvaIues of interest are reported on one or more of the general or scenario-specific worksheets(sometimes both). These are summarized for the PNGV application in Tables 12-13. Tables 14and 15 contain data transcribed form VMT_SUM, which summarizes results from each of thePNGV and ICE worksheets (in this case, ICE_CAR HIGH, ICE_LTRK HIGH, PNGV_CARHIGH, and PNGV_LTRK HIGH). Tables 16 and 17 are similarly transcribed from theCON_SUM worksheet, which summarizes operational fuel use from each of the same PNGV andICE worksheets. Emission results, by pollutant and fuel/technology alternative, cannot be readilysummarized in one or two tables. Thus, emissions from vehicle operations are reported inAppendix A.
TABLE 12 Number of Conventional-Technology and 3X Vehicles on the Roadunder the High-Market-Share Scenario (106)
Conventional Vehicles 3X Vehicles
Light Light AllYear Auto Truck Total Auto Truck Total LDVS
20052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030
130 ‘130129130133135138139141142142141141139137134131128124119114109104
989489
7476777982848688899091919089888684827976736966635957
204206206209215220224227230232232232231228225221215209203195187178169161153146
00000001
1
23469
121519232833394551576267
000000001123467
1012151821252832363942
000000112357
101419253138465464738392
101109
204206206210215220224228232235237239241243244245246247248249250251252253254255
24
TABLE 13 Number of Conventional-Technology and 3X Vehicles on the Road
under the Low-Market-Share Scenario (106)
Conventional Vehicles 3X Vehicles
Light Light AllYear Auto Truck Total Auto Truck Total LDVS
200520062007200820092010201120~2201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030
130130129130133136138140142143144145146147147147147147147146146144143141139137
74
76
77
79
82
84
86
88
90
91
92
93
93
94
94
94
94
94
94
93
93
92
91
908886
204206206210215220224228232234236238239240241241241241241240238236234231227223
000000000001
1
122345679
11141620
000000000000111122345679
1012
000000000011
2234568
10121518222732
204206206210215220224228232235237239241243244245246247248249250251252253254255
25
TABLE 14 Vehicle-Miles Traveled by Conventional-Technology and 3X Vehicles
under the High-Market-Share Scenario (109)
Conventional Vehicles 3X Vehicles
Light Light AllYear Auto Truck Total Auto Truck Total LDVS
20052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030
1990–20001990–20101990–20201990–2030
o001
246
1117
27
43
66
96
132
174
222
277
338
405
478
555
636
715
789
858
922
0
6
801
6,774
00001246
101625395677
102130162197236278323369415458498534
04
4693,938
000136
1017274469
105152209276352439535641756878
1,0051,1291,2471,3561,456
010
1,27010,712
1,5841,5951,5991,6161,6491,6771,7001,7201,7351,7451,7471,7401,7251,7031,6741,6391,5971,5491,4941,4341,3691,3011,2341,1721,1151,065
16,91532,90750,03563,367
850872891912941966986
1,0021,0151,0241,0271,0241,0151,002
985963938908875839800759719682649618
6,33714,92724,97132,757
2,4342,4672,4892,5292,5892,643222222
686722750769773763
2,7412,7062,6592,6032,5352,4572,3692,2732,1692,0601,9541,8541,7641,683
23,25347,83475,00696,124
2,4342,4672,4892,5302,5922,6482,6962,7392,7782,8132,8422,8692,8922,9152,9352,9552,9742,9923,0103,0283,0463,0653,0833,1013,1203,139
23,25347,84476,277
106,836
26
TABLE 15 Vehicle-Miles Traveled by Conventional-Technology and 3X Vehicles
under the Low-Market-Share Scenario (109)
Conventional Vehlicles 3X Vehicles
Light Light All
Year Auto Truck Total Auto Truck Total LDVS
20052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030
0 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 13’26 4
10 614 820 1227 1635 2044 2656 3371 4188 51
109 63134 78163 95198 115239 138286 166
0000000025
1016233242557089
112139172211258313378452
1,5841,5951,.5991,6171,6511,6811,7071,7301,7511,7691,7841,7961,8061,8151,8221,8271,8301,8311,8291,8241,8161,8031,7861,7631,7351,700
850872891913942968989
1,0091,0251,0391,0491,0571,0631,0681,0711,0731,0731,0721,0701,0651,0591,0501,0391,0251,008
987
2,4342,4672,4892,5302,5922,6482,6962,7392,7762,8082,8322,8532,8702,8832,8932,9002,9032,9032,8992,8892,8752,8542,8252,7892,7432,687
2,4342,4672,4892,5302,5922,6482,6962,7392,7782,8132,8422,8692,8922,9152,9352,9552,9742,9923,0103,0283,0463,0653,0833,1013,1203,139
27
TABLE 16 Fuel Use by Conventional-Technology and 3X Vehicles under the High-Market-Share
Scenario (106 Gallons of Gasoline Equivalent [GGE])
Conventional Vehicles 3X Vehicles
Light Light All
Year Auto Truck Total Auto Truck Total LDvs
20052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030
68,16668,69469,06369,21369,96370,49470,80070,94670,94770,74970,24269,44568,38867,09265,57463,85561,90559,74257,38754,85852,17749,40546,70944,19741,90939,855
54,05955,38056,55957,49858,78559,80960,47660,88761,07260,96760,51659,77158,76157,51756,06454,42652,59050,58048,41846,12543,72241,26338,88636,67734,66932,867
122,225124,074125,622126,711128,747130,302131,275131,833132,019131,716130,759129,216127,150124,609121,637118,282114,495110,322105,805100,983
95,89990,66885,59580,87376,57872,721
0 00 03 2
11 928 2355 4599 81
164 134265 216424 345670 544
1,024 8291,482 1,1982,041 1,6472,694 2,1713,438 2,7664,287 3,4455,235 4,2026,273 5,0317,395 5,9258,593 6,8799,838 7,870
11,061 8,84412,217 9,76413,287 10,61414,266 11,393
005
2151
101180298481769
1,2131,8532,6803,6874,8656,2047,7329,437
11,30413,32115,47217,70819,90521,98123,90125,659
122,225124,074125,627126,732128,798130,403131,455132,131132,500132,485131,972131,069129,830128,296126,502124,486122,227119,759117,109114,303111,370108,376105,500102,854100,479
98,380
2005-2010 415,593 342,090 757,683 97 80 177 757,860
2005-2020 1,103,631 932,547 2,036,178 12,397 10,010 22,407 2,058,5852005–2030 1,611,775 1,358,344 2,970,119 104,850 83,977 188,826 3,158,945
28
TABLE 17 Fuel Use by Conventional-l;echnology and 3X Vehicles under the Low-Market-Share
Scenario (106 Gallons of Gasoline Equivalent [GGE])
Conventional Vehicles 3X Vehicles
Light Light AllYear Auto Truck Total Auto Truck Total LDVS
2005 68,1662006 68,6942007 69,0712008 69,2432009 70,0352010 70,6362011 71,0532012 71,3642013 71,5812014 71,7002015 71$6832016 71,6172017 71,5152018 71,3782019 71,2052020 70,9922021 70,7372022 70,4232023 70,0332024 69,5482025 68,9512026 68,2162027 67,3202028 66,2402029 64,9502030 63,430
2005–2010 415,8452005–2020 1,129,9332005–2030 1,809,781
54,05955,38056,56657,52458,84959,93560,69861,25161,62261,78661,74961,61961,40961,13360,79860,40759,97159,48258,93058,30457,59556,78455,85654,79253,56952,173
342,313
122,225124,074125,637126,767128,884130,57’1131,751132,615133,203133,486133,432133,236132,924132,511132,003131,399130,708129,905128,963127,852126,546125,000123,176121,032118,519115,603
758,158954,785 2,084,718
1,522,241 3,332,022
0 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 0
15 1246 3895 77
153 124224 181310 250413 332539 433689 553871 699
1,093 8761,361 1,0901,683 1,3472,068 1,6542,527 2,0193,066 2,4493,699 2,9544,434 3,539
0 01,795 1,447
23,286 18,627
00000000
27
84
172
277
405
560
745
972
1,242
1,570
1,969
2,451
3,0303,7224,5465,5156,6537,973
03,242
41,913
122,225124,074125,637126,767128,884130,571131,751132,615133,230133,570136,604133,513133,329133,071132,748132,371131,950131,475130,932130,303129,576128,722127,722126,547125,172123,576
758,1582,087,9603,373,935
29
5 Proposed Additional Enhancements
IMPACTT5 will benefit from further improvements to GREET and also from a moreefficient manner of processing individual scenarios and technology penetration forecasts. Becausethere is interest in the constituents of airborne fine particulate matter (PM2.5, which has a diameterequal to or smaller than 2.5 pm), especially the formation of secondary nitrates and sulfates fromprimary nitrogen and sulfur oxide exhaust, GREET will seek to disaggregate its reporting of PMattributable to vehicular activity by species as well as size fraction. Secondary nitrate and sulfateemission factors could then be based on the respective share of nitric and sulfur oxide emissionschemically transformed to ammonium nitrate and similar nitrate compounds. Further, as GREET isexpanded to include additional propulsion system/fuel combinations (e.g., ethanol fuel cells) aswell as revised/enhanced emission factors (e.g., from EPA’s MOBILE6 model), the ability toassess the impact of such revisions will be incorporated into IMPACTT5.
With respect to IMPACTT5’S overall structure, its many past applications have beenaccommodated by simply adding technology-specific or scenario-specific flat files to theworkbook. This practice has led, on occasion, to the retention of very large and unwieldyworksheet files that may be incompatible with the memory limits of some older desktop systems. Apossible remedy for this shortcoming would be to store all scenario-specific and technology-specific data as more compact external database (.dbf) files that can be invoked sequentially withina basic shell model. Results could then be computed and captured without having to save inputs orintermediate computations as spreadsheets. Since the intent is to make IMPACTT5 more portable,more transferable, and able to deal relatively quickly with any size perturbation in a technology orenergy forecast, these enhancements are being seriously considered.
30
6 References
DOE, 1994, Five Year Transportation Program Plan, U.S. Department of Energy, Office ofTransportation Programs, Aug. 1.
DOE, 1996, AnnualEnergy Outlook, 1997, DOEIHA-0383(97), U.S. Department of Energy,Energy Information Administration, Dec.
Fulton, L., 1991, Alternative Vehicle Sales Module: Design of the Modeling Framework andPrototype Module Description, U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration,Sept.
Greene, D., and A. Rathi, 1990, Alternative Motor Fuel Use Model — Model Theory and Designand User’s Guide, ORNL/TM- 11448, Ckik Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Term., March.
Kumar, R., 1997, personal communication from R. Kumar (Chemical Technology Division,Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, 111.) to M. Wang (Energy Systems Division, ArgonneNational Laboratory, Argonne, Ill.).
Mintz, M., et al., 1993, Dz~erences between EPA-Test and In-Use Fuel Economy: Are theCorrection Factors Correct?, Transportation Research Board, Transportation ResearchRecord 1416.
Mintz, M., et al., 1994, The IMPAC7T Model: Structure and Technical Description,ANL/ESD/TM-93, Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, Ill., Dec.
U.S. Bureau of the Census, no date, 1987 Truck Inventory and Use Survey, public use tape,U.S. Department of Commerce.
Wang, M., et al., 1988, Assessment oJ~PNGV Fuels Infrastructure, Phase 2 Report: AdditionalCapital Needs and Fuel-Cycle Energy and Emissions Impacts, ANL/ESD-37, Argonne NationalLaboratory, Argonne, Ill., Aug.
I
31
Appendix A:
README File
32
33
Appendix A:
README File
The Integrated Market Penetration and Anticipated Cost of Transportation Technologies(IMPACTT) model was developed by Argonne National Laboratory’s Center for TransportationResearch to assist the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Office of Transportation Technologies(OTT), with program planning and development. Written in EXCEL 5.0 workbook format,IMPACTT is a spreadsheet model operating in either an Apple or a PC/Windows environment. Theversion that is the subject of this writeup consists of 10 worksheets. Six of them apply to alltechnologies (i.e., general worksheets), and the other four are specific to a particular combinationof vehicle class and technology type. The general worksheets are called ICE_CAR-~F,ICE.LTRK-REF, SALES-MPG, VMT.SUM, CON.SUM, and SUMMARY.
A.1 General Worksheets
To estimate the number of new advanced-technology vehicles on the road in a given year,market-penetration rates must be combined with an external forecast of new vehicle sales byvehicle type, and vehicles must be tracked through a survival or vintaging procedure. User-supplied forecasts of market penetration and marginal cost for the advanced technology are input tothe ICE_CAR-REF and ICE_LTRK-REF worksheets for each year of the analysis. ICE_CAR-REF and ICE_LTRK-REF also contain annual estimates of vehicle sales, fuel economy, andoperational emission rates for nitrogen oxides (NOX), carbon monoxide (CO), volatile organiccompounds (VOCS), and particulate matter (PM) by vehicle age or vintage for the years 1970-1995, as well as fuel specifications that are used to calculate emissions of sulfur oxides (SOX).Expressed in grams per mile (g/mi), emission rates were computed from the U.S. EnvironmentalProtection Agency’s (EPA’s) MOBILE5b and Part models.
The SALES_MPG worksheet converts user-supplied forecasts of fuel economy intoweighted averages for input into the stock model and for calculations of oil displacement and I%elsubstitution. Users can input either EPA-test or estimated on-road fuel economy. Default forecastsof sales and EPA-test fuel economy were extrapolated from those in the 1997 Annual EnergyOutlook (DOE 1996). Default estimates of on-road fuel economy assume a shortfall or gap ofabout 20% from EPA test results, which are the default inputs (Mintz et al. 1993).
Three of the general worksheets aggregate results from the technology-specific worksheets.Outputs include number of conventional- and advanced-technology vehicles on the road; vehicle-rniles traveled (vMT) by conventional and tripled-fuel-economy (3X) vehicles; and emissions ofcriteria pollutants and greenhouse gases for conventional vehicles and for each 3X propulsionsystem/fuel combination under consideration by the Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles(PNGV).
34
The VMT_SUM worksheet summarizes annual vehicle counts, fleet-average fuel economy(in mi/gallon of gasoline-equivalent or GGE), and VMT by conventional- and advanced-tec’nnology vehicles. The CON..SUM worksheet provides an intermediate summary of annualenergy consumed in vehicle operation (operational energy) and upstream emissions of criteriapollutants and greenhouse gases by propulsion systernhel combination. For both CON_SUM andVMT_SUM, results are reported annually for 1990–2030 and cumulatively (as appropriate) for theperiods 1990-2000, 1990–2010, 1990-2020, and 1990–2030.
The SUMMARY worksheet is a printer-formatted summary of tokd energy and emissionresults from 2005 to 2030 for the sum of conventional-technology vehicles and each candidate 3Xpropulsion system/fuel combination under the market-penetration scenario being considered.
A.2 Technology-Specific Worksheets
IMPACTT operates on a set of assumptions that define a particular scenario. The high-market-share scenario developed for the assessment of infrastructure impacts of 3X vehicles is thedefault case contained in the workbook file. That scenario requires the use of four technology-specific worksheets: ICE_CAR-HIGH, ICE_LTRK-HIGH, PNGV_CAR-HIGH, andPNGV_LTRK-HIGH. Because this setup is somewhat different from the typical workbookconfiguration in which IMPACTT5 operates, it was given the name IMPACTT5A.
Unless advanced technologies are assumed to be mutually exclusive, each advancedtechnology ordinarily would have a technology-specific worksheet associated with it. This is thetypical scenario in which IMPACTT operates. However, for the PNGV infrastructure analysis, aconscious decision was made to develclp a worst-case scenario. Since impacts associated with agiven fuel are maximized under conditions of very high demand for that fuel, advanced-technologyvehicles were limited to sharing the new vehicle market with conventional-technology vehicles, notwith each other, in that analysis. Thus,, a single advanced-technology worksheet covers all 3Xvehicles in the automotive market (PNCJV_CAR-HIGH), while another covers all 3X vehicles inthe light truck market (PNGV_LTRK-HIGH).
Chief among the parameters used to define a particula scenario are the market-penetrationrates for the various advanced technologies. These, in turn, are a key component of the vehiclestock calculation. The default assumption in IMPACTT is that advanced-technology vehiclesreplace conventional-technology vehicles (and conventional-technology vehicle VMT) on a one-for-one basis.
The USAGE module estimates VIvIT per year as a function of vehicle age. The keyparameters are miles per year for a new vehicle and a deterioration rate. In the high-market-sharescenario, advanced- and conventional-technology vehicles are assumed to have the same survivaland annual utilization rates, but different fuel economy and emission rates.
35
Several technology-specific parameters may be user-defined. These include:
●
●
●
●
Gasoline-equivalent fuel economy (GEMPG, entered on the worksheetSALES-MPG);
Upstream energy and emission rates (in Btu/106 Btu and g/106 Btu) for eachpropulsion system/fuel combination being examined (entered on ICE_CAR-HIGH and ICE_LTRK-HIGH for conventional-technology vehicles and onCON_SUM for 3X vehicles);
Operational emission rates (in ghni) for conventional-technology vehicles(entered directly on ICE_CAR-HIGH and ICE_LTRK-HIGH and entered asratios relative to Tier 2, spark-ignition, direct-injection [SIDI] engines runningon reformulated gasoline for each propulsion system/fuel combination onPNGV_CAR-HIGH and PNGV_LTRK-HIGH); and
Fuel specifications, such as density, heating value (Btu/gal or other physicalunit), sulfur ratio, and carbon ratio (entered on ICE_CAR-HIGH andICE_LTRK-HIGH for conventional-technology vehicles and on PNGV_CAR-HIGH and PNGV_LTRK-HIGH for 3X vehicles).
A.3 References for Appendix A
DOE, 1996, Annual Energy Outlook, 1997, DOE/EIA-0383(97), U.S. Department of Energy,Energy Information Administration, Dec.
Mintz, M., et al., 1993, Di#erences between EPA-Test and In-Use Fuel Economy: Are theCorrection Factors Correct?, Transportation Research Board, Transportation ResearchRecord 1416.
37
Appendix B:
Estimates of Operational, Upstream, and Total Emissionsand Energy Use and of Global Warming Potential under
the Baseline Scenario and High-Market-ShareScenario by 3X Technology/Fuel Combination*
* RFG = reformulated gasoline, MeOH = methanol, EtOH = ethanol, RFD = reformulated diesel, DME = dimethylether, HFCV = hydrogen fuel ce]l vehicle, MFCV = methanol fuel cell vehicle, GFCV = gasoline fuel cellvehicle, F-T50 = 5070 Fischer-Tropsch diesel, B20 = 2070 biodiesel blend, LPG = liquefied petroleum gas,CNG = compressed natural gas, LNG = liquefied natural gas.
38
TABLE B.1 Operational Emissions of NOX under the Baseline Scenario and for Conventional-Technology Plus 3X Vehicles under the
High-Market-Share Scenario ( 103 metric tons)
Base
Year Case RFG MeOH EtOH RFD DM E HFCV M FCV GFCV F- T50 B20 LPG CNG LNG
20052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030
2,5502,5032,4482,3732,3312,2732,2042,1282,0531,9811,917?,6641,8231,7931,7721,7601,7541,7531,7551,7631,7701,7781,7851,7931,8011,809
2,4142,4212,4022,3502,3222,2732,2042,1282,0531,9811,9171,8641,8231,7931,7721,7601,7541,7531,7551,7631,7701,7781,7851,7931,8011,809
2,4142,4212,4022,3502,3222,2732,2042,1282,0531,9811,9171,8641,8231,7931,7721,7601,7541,7531,7551,7631,7701,7781,7851,7931,8011,809
2,4142,4212,4022,3502,3222,2732,2042,1282,0531,9811,9171,8641,8231,7931,7721,7601,7541,7531,7551,7631,7701,7781,7851,7931,8011,809
2,4142,4212,4022,3502,3222,2732,2042,1282,0531,9811,9171,8641,8231,7931,7721,7601,7541,7531,7551,7631,7701,7781,7851,7931,8011,809
2,4142,4212,4022,3502,3222,2732,2042,1282,0531,9811,9171,8641,8231,7931,7721,7601,7541,7531,7551,7631,7701,7781,7851,7931,8011,809
2,4142,4212,4022,3502,3222,2722,2022,1252,0471,9721,9031,8411,7881,7431,7021,6651,6291,5901,5491,5071,4591,4051,3481,2881,2261,165
2,4142,4212,4022,3502,3222,2722,2022,1252,0471,9721,9031,8411,7891,7431,7031,6661,6301,5921,5511,5091,4621,4091,3521,2931,2321,172
2,4142,4212,4022,3502,3222,2722,2022,1252,0471,9721,9031,8411,7891,7431,7031,6661,6301,5921,5511,5091,4621,4091,3521,2931,2321,172
2,4142,4212,4022,3502,3222,2732,2042,1282,0531,9811,9171,8641,8231,7931,7721,7601,7541,7531,7551,7631,7701,7781,7851,7931,8011,809
2,4142,4212,4022,3502,3222,2732,2042,1282,0531,9811,9171,8641,8231,7931,7721,7601,7541,7531,7551,7631,7701,7781,7851,7931,8011,809
2,4142,4212,4022,3502,3222,2732,2042,1282,0531,9811,9171,8641,8231,7931,7721,7601,7541,7531,7551,7631,7701,7781,7851,7931,8011,809
2,4142,4212,4022,3502,3222,2732,2042,1282,0531,9811,9171,8641,8231,7931,7721,7601,7541,7531,7551,7631,7701,7781,7851,7931,8011,809
2,4142,4212,4022,3502,3222,2732,2042,1282,0531,9811,9171,864 Q
b1,8231,7931,7721,7601,7541,7531,7551,7631,7701,7781,7851,7931,8011,809
TABLE B.2 Operational Emissions of CO under the Baseline Scenario and for Conventional-Technology Pius 3X Vehicles under theHigh-Market-Share Scenario ( 103 metric tons)
BaseYear Case RFG MeOH EtOH RFD DME HFCV MFCV GFCV F- T50 B20 LPG CNG LNG
20052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030
39,651 37,40839,009 37,64938,230 37,46937,098 36,72436,477 36,33835,589 35,58934,507 34,50733,314 33,31432,106 32,10630,955 30,95529,928 29,92829,068 29,06828,397 28,39727,906 27,90627,570 27,57027,358 27,35827,246 27,24627,215 27,21527,239 27,23927,362 27,36227,482 27,48227,601 27,60127,719 27,71927,839 27,83927,961 27,96128,085 28,085
37,40837,64937,46936,72436,33835,58934,50733,31432,10630,95529,92829,06828,39727,90627,57027,35827,24627,21527,23927,36227,48227,60127,71927,83927,96128,085
37,40837,64937,46936,72436,33835,58934,50733,31432,10630,95529,92829,06828,39727,90627,57027,35827,24627,21527,23927,36227,48227,60127,71927,83927,96128,085
37,40837,64937,46936,72336,33635,58334,49633,29232,06530,88429,81028,87628,09827,45526,91226,42925,96925,50925,01624,53823,97323,32822,61521,84721,04320,221
37,40837,64937,46936,72336,33635,58334,49633,29232,06530,88429,81028,87628,09827,45526,91226,42925,96925,50925,01624,53823,97323,32822,61521,84721,04320,221
37,40837,64937,46936,72136,33235,57634,48333,27132,03230,83129,72528,74727,91127,19726,56925,98825,41624,83024,19923,57122,84422,03121,15120,22219,26718,306
37,40837,64937,46936,72136,33235,57634,48333,27132,03330,83229,72728,75027,91627,20426,57926,00125,43424,85424,23023,60822,89122,08721,21620,29819,35418,404
37,40837,64937,46936,72136,33235,57634,48333,27132,03330,83229,72728,75027,91627,20426,57926,00125,43424,85424,23023,60822,89122,08721,21620,29819,35418,404
37,40837,64937,46936,72336,33635,58334,49633,29232,06530,88429,81028,87628,09827,45526,91226,42925,96925,50925,01624,53823,97323,32822,61521,84721,04320,221
37,40837,64937,46936,72336,33635,58334,49633,29232,06530,88429,81028,87628,09827,45526,91226,42925,96925,50925,01624,53823,97323,32822,61521,84721,04320,221
37,40837,64937,46936,72436,33835,58934,50733,31432,10630,95529,92829,06828,39727,90627,57027,35827,24627,21527,23927,36227,48227,60127,71927,83927,96128,085
37,40837,40837,64937,64937,46937,46936,72436,72436,33836,33835,58935,58934,50734,50733,31433,31432,10632,10630,95530,95529,92829,92829,06829,068 &
Q28,39728,39727,90627,90627,57027,57027,35827,35827,24627,24627,21527,21527,23927,23927,36227,36227,48227,48227,601 27,60127,71927,71927,83927,83927,961 27,96128,08528,085
TABLE 6.3 Operational Emissions of VOCS under the Baseline Scenario and for Conventional-Technology Plus 3X Vehicles under theHigh-Market-Share Scenario (103 metric tons)
BaseYear Case RFG MeOH EtOH RFD DME HFCV M FCV GFCV F- T50 B20 LPG CNG LNG
20052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030
1,7611,7601,7711,7901,8481,9031,9542,001 “2,0432,0802,1112,1362,1582,1772,1932,2062,2172,2282,2372,2462,2552,2642,2732,2822,2912,300
1,6421,6951,7401,7791,8441,9031,9542,0012,0432,0802,1112,1362,1582,1772,1932,2062,2172,2282,2372,2462,2552,2642,2732,2812,2902,299
1,6421,6951,7401,7791,8441,9031,9542,0012,0432,0802,1112,1362,1582,1772,1932,2062,2172,2282,2372,2462,2552,2642,2732,2812,2902,299
1,6421,6951,7401,7791,8441,9031,9542,0012,0432,0802,1112,1362,1582,1772,1932,2062,2172,2282,2372,2462,2552,2642,2732,2812,2902,299
1,6421,6951,7401,7791,8431,9021,9531,9982,0392,0732,0992,1192,1322,1402,1422,1392,1302,1162,0962,0712,0412,0071,9711,9341,8951,856
1,6421,6951,7401,7791,8431,9021,9531,9982,0392,0732,0992,1192,1322,1402,1422,1392,1302,1162,0962,0712,0412,0071,9711,9341,8951,856
1,6421,6951,7401,7781,8431,9011,9511,9952,0332,0642,0852,0972,1002,0942,0802,0582,0261,9851,9361,8791,8141,7431,6681,5921,5161,441
1,6421,6951,7401,7781,8431,9011,9511,9962,0342,0652,0882,1012,1062,1032,0922,0732,0462,0101,9671,9161,8591,7961,7301,6631,5961,529
1,6421,6951,7401,7781,8431,9011,9521,9972,0362,0682,0912,1072,1152,1152,1092,0952,0742,0472,0121,9711,9251,8741,8211,7661,7121,658
1,6421,6951,7401,7791,8431,9021,9531,9982,0392,0732,0992,1192,1322,1402,1422,1392,1302,1162,0962,0712,0412,0071,9711,9341,8951,856
1,6421,6951,7401,7791,8431,9021,9531,9982,0392,0732,0992,1192,1322,1402,1422,1392,1302,1162,0962,0712,0412,0071,9711,9341,8951,856
1,6421,6951,7401,7791,8431,9021,9521,9982,0382,0722,0982,1172,1292,1362,1362,1322,1222,1072,0872,0632,0342,0031,9701,9371,9031,870
1,6421,6951,7401,7791,8431,9021,9521,9982,0382,0722,0982,1172,1292,1362,1362,1322,1222,1072,0872,0632,0342,0031,9701,9371,9031,870
1,6421,6951,7401,7791,8431,9021,9521,9982,0382,0722,0982,117 ~
2,1292,1362,1362,1322,1222,1072,0872,0632,0342,0031,9701,9371,9031,870
TABLE B.4 Operational Emissions of PMIO under the Baseline Scenario and for Conventional-Technology Plus 3X Vehicles under theHigh-Market-Share Scenario (1 Os metric tons)
BaseYear Case RFG MeOH EtOH RFD DM E HFCV M FCV GFCV F- T50 B20 LPG CNG LNG
20052006200720082009201020112012
201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030
80 7881 8082 8182 8284 8486 8687 8788 88
89 8990 9091 9191 9192 9292 9293 9393 9393 9394 9494 9494 9495 9595 9595 9596 9696 9696 96
7880818284858788898990909090908989888786858483828281
7880818284858788898990909090908989888786858483828281
7880818284868788909192949698
100102104107110113116
788081828486878889909f91929293939394949495
788081828485878889899090909089898887868584
788081828485878889899090909089898887868584
788081828485878889899090909089898887868584
7880818284868788909192949698
100102104107110113116
7880818284868788909192949698
100102104107110113116
788081828485878889899090909089898887868584
78 7880 8081 8182 8284 8485 8587 8788 8889 8989 8990 9090 90 ~
90 9090 9089 8989 8988 8887 8786 8685 8584 84
20 95 83 83 8323 95 82 82 82
26 96 81 81 8129 96 80 80 8032 96 79 79 79
120123126129132
20 83 83 8323 82 82 8226 81 81 8129 80 80 8032 79 79 79
TABLE B.5 Operational Emissions of SOX under the Baseline Scenario and for Conventional-Technology Plus 3X Vehicles under the
High-Market-Share Scenario ( 103 metric tons)
BaseYear Case RFG MeOH EtOH RFD DM E HFCV M FCV GFCV F- T50 B20 LPG CNG LNG
20052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030
6869697071727273737474747474747474747474747474747474
6768697071727273737373727171706867666463616058575554
67 6768 6869 6970 7071 7172 7272 7273 7373 7372 7272 7271 7170 7069 6967 6766 6564 6361 6159 5957 5654 5451 5149 4846 4644 4442 42
6768697071727273737373727171706967666563626058575655
6768697071727272737272717069676563615856535047444240
6768697071727272737272717069676563615856535047444240
6768697071727273737272717069676664615957545149464442
6768697071727273737373727171706867666463616058575554
67 6768 6869 6970 7071 7172 7272 7273 7373 7373 7372 7272 7271 7170 7068 6967 6865 6764 6562 6460 6258 6055 5853 5751 5549 5448 52
6768697071727272737272717069676563615856535047444240
6768697071727272737272717069676563615956535048454341
676869707172727273727271 A
QJ7069676563615856535047444240
TABLE B.6 Operational Emissions of C02 under the Baseline Scenario and for Conventional-Technology Plus 3X Vehicles under theHigh-Market-Share Scenario ( 103 metric tons)
Base
Year Case RFG MeOH EtOH RFD DME H FCV
2005 1,040,251 1,022,550 1,022,550 1,022,550 1,022,5501,022,550 1,022,5502006 1,048,658 1,038,020 1,038,020 1,038,020 1,038,0201,038,020 1,038,0202007 1,057,116 1,051,015 1,051,014 1,050,972 1,051,019 1,051,013 1,050,972
MFCV GFCV F-T50 B20 LPG CN G LNG
,022,550 1,022,550 1,022,550 1,022,550 1,022,550 1,022,550 1,022,550,038,020 1,038,020 1,038,020 1,038,020 1,038,020 1,038,020 1,038,020,051,014 1,051,015 1,051,018 1,051,019 1,051,014 1,051,007 1,051,006
2008 1,063,712 1,060,253 1,060,249 1,060,081 1,060,268 1,060,246 1,060,081 1,060,249 1,060,253 1;060,265 1,060,268 1,060,247 1,060,220
2009 1,079,681 1,077,540 1,077,530 1,077,115 1,077,577 1,077,522 1,077,115 1,077,530 1,077,540 1,077,568 1,077,576 1,077,526 1,077,4582010 1,092,771 1,090,968 1,090,948 1,090,127 1,091,041 1,090,933 1,090,127 1,090,948 1,090,968 1,091,024 1,091,040 1,090,940 1,090,8062011 1,102,514 1,099,773 1,099,737 1,098,267 1,099,903 1,099,710 1,098,267 1,099,737 1,099,773 1,099,872 f ,099,900 1,099,723 1,099,4832012 1,109,642 1,105,428 1,105,368 1,102,931 1,105,6431,105,324 1,102,931 1,105,368 1,105,428 1,105,593 1,105,639 1,105,345 1,104,947
2013 1,115,078 1,108,514 1,108,418 1,104,487 1,108,861 1,108,347 1,104,487 1,108,418 1,108,5I4 1,108,780 1,108,855 1,108,380 1,107,7382014 1;118,632 1,108,385 1,108,232 1,101,951 1,108,941 1,108,1192015 1,120,000 1,104,093 1,103,851 1,093,942 1,104,970 1,103,6732016 1,120,559 1,096,537 1,096,167 1,081,034 1,097,8761,095,8952017 1,120,630 1,086,174 1,085,639 1,063,749 1,088,111 1,085,2452018 1,120,405 1,073,340 1,072,605 1,042,491 1,076,005 1,072,0632019 1,120,034 1,058,334 1,057,364 1,017,632 1,061,850 1,056,64820202021202220232024202520262027202820292030
:119,667 1,041,462 1,040,225 989,559 1,045,946 1,039,313
,119,448 1,022,563 1,021,022 957,876 1,028,152 1,019,885
,119,454 1,001,915 1,000,033 922,966 1,008,735 998,646
,119,709 979,748 977,494 885,175 987,919 975,833
,120,213 956,277 953,621 844,834 965,904 951,662
,120,988 931,736 928,651 802,299 942,918 926,377,121,989 906,689 903,158 758,538 919,488 900,555
,123,194 882,629 878,660 716,098 897,016 875,734,124,571 860,490 856,107 676,597 876,377 852,876,126,099 840,623 835,857 640,664 857,898 832,344
,127,736 823,061 817,945 608,394 841,606 814,173
,101,951 1,108,232 1,108,385,093,942 1,103,851 1,104,093,081,034 1,096,167 1,096,537,063,749 1,085,639 1,086,174,042,491 1,072,605 1,073,340,017,632 1,057,364 1,058,334989,559 1,040,225 1,041,462957,876922,966885,175844,834802,299758,538716,098676,597640,664608.394
1,021,022 1,022,5631,000,033 1,001,915
977,494 979,748953,621 956,277928,651 931,736903,158 906,689878,660 882,629856,107 860,490835,857 840,623817,945 823,061
,108,811 1,108,930 1,108,1721,107,146,104,765 1,104,953 1,103,758 1,102,138,097,563 1,097,850 1,096,0241,093,551,087,659 1,088,074 1,085,4321,081,855,075,383 1,075,954 1,072,3191,067,398,061,029 1,061,782 1,056,987 1,050,494,044,899 1,045,860 1,039,7451,031,465
1,026,847 1,028,0441,007,143 1,008,604
986,011 987,762963,656 965,719940,307 942,703916,499 919,242893,657 896,740872,666 876,071853,864 857,566837,275 841,250
,060,219,077,455,090,799,099,470,104,925,107,704,107,091
,102,051,093,418
,081,663,067,134
&A
,050,146,031,020
1,020,424 1,010,105 1,009,550999,303 986,709 986,033976,620 961,533 960,723952,590 934,812 933,857927,454 906,806 905,697901,788 878,155 876,886877,120 850,555 849,128854,406 825,072 823,496834,008 802,111 800,397815,960 781,716 779,876
TABLE B.7 Operational Emissions of CHA under the Baseline Scenario and for Conventional-Technology Plus 3X Vehicles under theHigh-Market-Share Scenario ( 103 metric tons)
BaseYear Case RFG MeOH EtOH RFD DM E HFCV M FCV GFCV F- T50 B20 LPG CNG LNG
20052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030
180183185188192196200203206208210212214216217219220221223224225227228230231232
177181184187192196200203206208210212214216217219220221223224225227228230231232
177181184187192196199202205207209210210210210210209208206205203201199197196195
177181184187192196199202205207209210210210210210209208206205203201199197196195
177181184187192196199202204205206205204202199195191186180174168160154147141136
177181184187192196199202204205206205204202199195191186180174168160154147141136
177181184187192196199201204205205204203200197193188182175168160152145137131125
177181184187192196199201204205205204203200197193188182175168160152145137131125
177181184187192196199201204205205204203200197193188182175168160152145137131125
177181184187192196199202204205206205204202199195191186180174168160154147141136
177181184187192196199202204205206205204202199195191186180174168160154147141136
177181184187192196200203206208210212214216217219220221223224225227228230231232
177181184188194200206214224237256282315355401453512578650727810896980
1,0601,1341,202
177181184188194200206214224237256282 A
b315355401453512578650727810896980
1,0601,1341,202
TABLE B.8 Operational Emissions of NPO under the Baseline Scenario and for Conventional-Technology Plus 3X Vehicles under theHigh-Market-Share Scenario (103 metric tons)
YearBaseCase RFG MeOH EtOH RFD DM E HFCV M FCV GFCV F- T50 B20 LPG CNG LNG
200520062007200820092010201120-!2
201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030
12.212.312.512.713.013.2
3.53.7
3.94.14.24.34.54.64.74.84.9
12.012.212.412.613.013.213.5
3.7
3.9
4.1
4.2
4.3
4.5
4.6
4.7
4.8
4.9
12.012.212.412.613.013.213.5
3.73.94.14.24.34.54.64.74.84.9
12.02.22.42.63.03.23.5
13.713.914.114.214.314.514.614.714.814.9
15.0 15.0 15.0 15.015.1 15.1 15.1 15.115.1 15.1 15.1 15.115.2 15.2 15.2 15.215.3 15.3 15.3 15.315.4 15.4 15.4 15.415.5 15.5 15.5 15.515.6 15.6 15.6 15.615.7 15.7 15.7 15.7
12.012.212.412.613.013.213.513.713.914.114.214.314.514.614.714.814.915.015.115.115.215.315.415.515.615.7
12.012.212.412.613.013.213.513.713.914.114.214.314.514.614.714.814.915.015.115.115.215.315.415.515.615.7
12.012.2
2.42.62.93.23.43.63.83.83.93.83.73.53.33.02.72.31.81.40.80.3
12.012.2
2.42.62.93.23.43.63.83.83.93.8
13.713.513.313.012.712.311.811.410.810.3
9.8 9.89.3 9.38.8 8.88.4 8.4
12.012.212.412.612.913.213.413,613.813.813.913.813.713.513.313.012.712.311.811.410.810.39.89.38.88.4
12.012.212.412.613.013.213.513.713.914.114,214.314.514.614.714.814.915.015,115.115.215.315.415.515.615.7
12.012.212.412.613.013.213.5
3.73.94.14.24.34.54.64.74.84.95.05.15.15.25.3
12.012.2
2.42.63.03.23.53.73.94.14.24.34.54.64.74.84495.05.15.15.25.3
15.4 15.415.5 15.515.6 15.615.7 15.7
12.012.212.412.613.013.213.513.713.914.114.214.314.514.614.714.814.915.015.115.115.215.315.415,515.615.7
12.012.212.412.613.013.213.513.713.914.114.214.3 -&
m14.514.614.714.814.915.015.115.115.215.315.415.515.615.7
TABLE B.9 Operational Energy Use under the Baseline Scenario and for Conventional-Technology Plus 3X Vehicles under the High-Market-Share Scenario (Quads)
BaseYear Case RFG MeOH EtOH RFD DM E HFCV M FCV GFCV F- T50 B20 LPG CNG LNG
20052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030
14.114.214.314.414.614.8
14.915.015.115.115.115.115.115.115.115.115.115.115.115.115.115.215.215.215.215.2
13.814.014.214.314.614.714.914.915.015.014.914.814.714.514.314.113.813.513.212.912.612,211.9
11.6
11.4
11.1
13.814.014.214.314.614.714.914.915.015.014.914.814.714.514.314.113.813.513.212.912.612.211.911.611.411.1
13.814.014.214.314.614.714.914.915.015.014.914.814.714.514.314.113.813.513.212.912.612.211.911.611.411.1
13.814.014.214.314.614.714.914.915.015.014.914.814.714.514.314.113.813.513.212.912,612.211.911.611.411.1
13.814.014.214.314.614.714.914.915.015.014.914.814.714.514.314.113.813.513.212.912.612.211.911.611.411.1
13.814.014.214.314.614.714.914.915.015.014.914.814.714.514.314.113.813.513.212.912.612.211.911.611.411.1
13.814.014.214.314.614.714.914.915.015.014.914.814.714.514.314.113.813.513.212.912.612.211.911.611.411.1
13.814.014.214.314.614.714.914.915.015.014.914.814.714.514.314.113.813.513.212.912.612.211.911.611.411.1
13.814.014.214.314.614.714.914.915.015.014.914.814.714.514.314.113.813.513.212.912.612.211.911.611.411.1
13.814.014.214.314.614.714.914.915.015.014.914.814.714.514.314.113.813.513.212.912.612.211.911.611.411.1
13.814.014.214.314.614.714.914.915.015.014.914.814.714.514.314.113.813.513.212.912.612.211.911.611.411.1
13.814.014.214.314.614.714.914.915.015.014.914.814.714.514.314.113.813.513.212,912.612.211.911.611.411.1
13.814.014.214.314,614.714.914.915.015.014.914.8 A
w14.714.514.314.113.813.513.212.912.612.211.911.611.411.1
TABLE B.1O Operational Fossil Energy Use under the Baseline Scenario and for Conventional-Technology PIUS 3X Vehicles under the
High-Market-Share Scenario (Quads)
BaseYear Case RFG MeOH EtOH RFD DM E HFCV M FCV GFCV F- T50 B20 LPG CNG LNG
20052006200720082009201020112012
201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030
14.114.2
13.814.0
13.814.0
13.814.0
13.814.0
13.814.0
13.814.0
13.814.0
13.814.0
13.814.0
13.814.0
13.814.0
13.814.0
13.814.0
4.34.44.64.84.95,0
5.15.15,15.15.15.15.15.15.15.15.15.15.15,25.25.25.2
4.24.34.64.74,94:9
4.24.34.64.74.94.9
14.214.314.514.714.814.914.914.914.814.614.414.113.713.412.912.512.011.410.810.29.79.18.78.2
14.214.314.614.714.914.915.015.014.914.814.714.514.314.113.813.513.212.912.612.211.911.611.411.1
14.214.314.614.714.914.915.015.014.914.814.714.514.314,113.813.513.212.912.612.211.911.611.411.1
4.24.34.64.74.94.9
14.214.314.614.714.914.915.015.014.914.814.714.514.314.113.813.513.212.912.612.211.911.611.411.1
14.214.314.614.714.914.915.015.014.914.814.714.514.314.113.813.513.212.912.612.211.911.611.411.1
14.214.314.614.714.914.915.015.014.914.814.714.514.314.113.813.513.212.912.612.211.911.611.411.1
4.24.34.64.74.94.95.05.04,94.84.64.44.24.03.73.43.12.7
14.214.314.614.714.914.915’.015.014.914.814.714.514.314.113.813.513.212.912.612.211.911.611.411.1
14.214.314.614.714,914”915.015.014.914.814.7
14.214,314.614.714.914.915.015.014.914.8 &
Cu14.714.514.314.113.813.513.2
15.015.014.944,814.7
15.015.014.914.814.7
15.015.014.914.814.714.514.314.113.613.112.511.710.810.29.79.18.78.2
4.54.34.13.83.53.22.92.62.21.91.61.4
4.54.34.13.83.53.22.92.62.21.91.61.4
14.514.314.113.813.513.2
2.92.62.21.91.61.4
2.92.62.21.91.61.4
12.412.011.611.311.010.815.2 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.1
TABLE B.11 Operational Petroleum Use under the Baseline Scenario and for Conventional-Technology Plus 3X vehicles under theHigh-Market-Share Scenario (Quads)
BaseYear Case RFG MeOH EtOH RFD DM E HFCV M FCV GFCV F- T50 B20 LPG CNG LNG
2005 14.12006 14.22007 14.32008 14.42009 14.62010 14.82011 14.92012 15.02013 15.12014 15.12015 15.12016 15.12017 15.12018 15.12019 15.12020 15.12021 15.12022 15.12023 15.12024 15.12025 15.12026 15.22027 15.22028 15.22029 15.22030 15.2
13.814.014.214.314.614.714.914.915.015.014.914.814.714.514.314.113.813.513.212.912.612.211.911.611.411.1
13.814.014.214.314.514.714.814.914.914.914.814.614.414.113.713.412.912.512.011.410.810.29.79,18.78.2
13.814.014.214.314.514.714.814.914.914.914.814.614.414.113.713.412.912.512.011.410.810.29.79.18.78.2
13.814.014.214.314.614.714.914.915.015.014.914.814.714.514.314.113.813.513.212.912.612.211.911.611.411.1
13.814.014.214.314.514.714.814.914.914.914.814.614.414.113.713.412.912.512.011.410.810.29.79.18.78.2
13.814.014.214.314.514.714.814.914.914.914.814.614.414.113.713.412.912.512.011.410.810.29.79.18.78.2
13.814.014.214.314.514.714.814.914.914.914.814.614.414.113.713.412.912.512.011.410.810.29.79.18.78.2
13.814.014.214.314.614.714.914.915.015.014.914.814.714.514.314.113.813.513.212.912.612.211.911.611.411.1
13.814,014.214.314.614.714.814.914.914.914.814.714.514.314.013.713.413.012.612.211.811.310.910.510.19.8
13.814.014.214.314.614.714.914.915.015.014.914.814.614.414.214.013.713.413.112.712.412.011.611.311.0
10.8
13.814.014.214.314.614.714.814.914.914.914.814.714.514.214.013.613.312.912.512.011.511.010.610.1
9.7
9.4
13.814.014.214,314.514.714.814.914.914.914.814.614.414.113.713.412.912.512.011,410.810.29.79.18.78.2
13.814.014.214.314.514.714.814.914.914.914.814.6 $14.414.113.713.412.912.512.011.410.810.29.79.18.78.2
TABLE B.12 Upstream Emissions of NOX under the Baseline Scenario and for Conventional-Technology Plus 3X Vehicles under theHigh-Market-Share Scenario (103 metric tons)
BaseYear Case RFG MeOH EtOH RFD DM E HFCV M FCV GFCV F- T50 B20 LPG CNG LNG
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
535539543543547550551551550548545541538534530526522519515512509506503500497495
525533540541546549550549!547543537530521512501490478466453439426412399387376367
525533540541547551552553553553553553555557560564569574581588596605612619625629
525533540541547551553554554554555557561555541530524518512507503499497495494494
525533540541546549550548546542536527518507495482468454438423406390374359346334
525533540541547551552553553553552553554557560564568574581588596604612619625629
525533540542547551554556557560563570578590603619632644653656655650647642641637
525533540541547551552553553553553553555557560564569574581588596605612619625629
525533540541546549550549547543537530521512501490478466453439426412399387376367
5255335405415465495505495475435385315235145054944834724604484354234!1400390381
525533540541546549550549547543537530522512502490478466453439425411397385373363
525533540541546549550549546542536529520509498486474460446431416401387374362351
525533540541546549550550548545540535529522514506498489481472462453445437429423
525533540541547550551551551549547 bQ545544542542542542544546549553557562567571576
TABLE B.13 Upstream Emissions of CO under the Baseline Scenario and for Conventional-Technology Plus 3X Vehicles under the High-
Market-Share Scenario (103 metric tons)
BaseYear Case RFG MeOH EtOH RFD DM E HFCV M FCV GFCV F- T50 B20 LPG CNG LNG
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
339342345346351355357359360361361361360360359358358357357357356356356356356356
333338343345350354356358358358356353349345339333327320312304296288280272266260
333338343345351355358360361362363363364365366367368369371372374375377378379380
333338343345351355358361363365368371374377379382386392398405412420429436444451
333338343345350354356358358358356352348343338331324317309300291282274266258252
333338343345351355358360361362363363364365365366367368370371373374376377378378
333338343345351355358360362364365367369372376380382383382377370361353346340334
333338343345351355358360361362363363364365366367368369371372374375377378379380
333338343345350354356358358358356353349345339333327320312304296288280272266260
333338343345350354357358359359357355352348344339334328323316310303297292286282
333338343345350354357358359358356354350346341335329323316308301293285278272267
333338343345350354356358358358356353349344339333327320312304296287279272265259
333338343345350354357358359358356354350346341336330324317310302295288281275270
333338343345350355357359360361361 ~360360359359358357357357357357357357358359359
TABLE B.14 Upstream Emissions of VOCS under the Baseline Scenario and for Conventional-Technology Plus 3X Vehicles under theHigh-Market-Share Scenario ( 103 metric tons)
BaseYear Case RFG MeOH EtOH RFD DME HFCV MFCV GFCV F- T50 B20 LPG CNG LNG
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
255257259260263266268269270270270270269269268268267267266266265265265265265265
250254257259263266267268268268266264261257253249244239233227221214208203198193
250254257259263266268269269269268266263260257253248243237231225218211204198192
250254257259263266267268269269268266264261258254251247243238234230225222218216
250254257259263266267268268267265262258254249243236229222214206197189182175169
250254257259263266267268269268267265262258254250244238232225217209201194187180
250254257259263266267268269268267265262259255250244238230221211201191182173165
250254257259263266268269269269268266263260257253248243237231225218211204198192
250254257259263266267268268268266264261257253249244239233227221214208203198193
250254257259263265267268268267265262258253247241234227219210201192183175168161
250254257259263266267268269268267265263260256252248244239233228223217212208203
2502542572592632662672!68268267265262258253248242235228220212203194185177170163
250254257259263265267268268267265261257252246240232224216207197187177168160153
250254257259263266267268269268267265262259256251247241236230223217210204198193
TABLE 6.15 Upstream Emissions of PM1o under the Baseline Scenario and for Conventional-Technology Plus 3X Vehicles under the
High-Market-Share Scenario (103 metric tons)
BaseYear Case RFG MeOH EtOH RFD DME HFCV M FCV GFCV F- T50 B20 LPG CNG LNG
2Q05
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
5757575858595959595959585858585757575756565656565555
5656575758585959595858575655545352515048474544434140
5656575758585959595858575655545352514948464543424140
56565757585960606162646770727171737678818588919598101
5656575758585959595858575655545251504846454341403837
56565757585859595958585756555453525149484645434240
39
5656575758595959595959585857575756555553525150
494847
5656575758585959595858575655545352514948464543424140
5656575758585959595858575655545352515048474544434140
5656575758585959595858575655545251494846444241393836
5656575758585959595858575655545351504847454342403937
5656575758585959585858575655535250494745434139373634
565657575858595959585857565554535150
484745434240
3937
5656575758595959595959 $595959595959596060616162626363
TABLE B.16 Upstream Emissions of S0, under the %seline ScenariO and for Conventional-Technology Plus 3X Vehicles under theHigh-Market-Share Scenario ( 103 metric tons)
BaseYear Case RFG MeOH EtOH RFD DM E HFCV M FCV GFCV F- T50 B20 LPG CNG LNG
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
379 373382 379386 383383 382385 384385 384383 382381 380379 376375 372371 366367 359363 352359 343354 335350 325346 316342 306338 295334 285330 274326 264323 254320 244316 236313 228
373379383382384384382379376371364356347337326315302290276263249235222209198188
37337938338238438438338137937637236736334932830829!274255237218199181165151139
373379383382384384382380376371365357349340330319308297285273260248236225215206
373379383382384384382379376370364356347337326314302289276262248234221208197187
373379383382384384383381378375371366361356350344338332324317309300292284276269
373379383382384384382379376371364356347337326315302290276263249235222209198188
373379383382384384382380376372366359352343335325316306295285,274264254244236228
373379383382384384382.-.d[~376371364357348338328317305293281268255242229218207198
373379383382384384382. . .duu376371365358349340330320309297285273260247235224214205
373379383382384384382.-. .di~376371364356347337326315303290277263249235222210198188
373379383382384384383=-.-.5UU
377372367360353344336326317306296285273262251240231222
373379383382384384382n..6UU376371365 Q%358349340330320309298286275263251240229220212
TABLE 6.17 Upstream, Emissions of C02 under the Baseline Scenario and for Conventional-Technology Plus 3X Vehicles under the
High-Market-Share Scenario (103 metric tons)
BaseYear Case RFG MeOH EtOH RFD DM E HFCV M FCV GFCV F-T5 o B2O LPG CNG LNG
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030
298,672
301,086
303,514
305,404
309,985
313,740
316,533
318,575
320,132
321,149
321,537
321,694
321,710
321,642
321,531
321,422
321,355
321,353
321,422
321,563
321,782
322,065
322,407
322,796
323,233
323,699
. .
293,590
298,031
301,762
304,411
309,371
313,222
315,746
317,366
3t8,248
316,207
316,971
314,798
311,6t9
308,131
303,619
298,972
293,543
287,612
281,245
274,504
267,456
260,264
253,354
246,996
241,290
236,247
293,590
298,031
301,768
304,432
309,420
313,317
315,909
317,624
318,647
318,816
317,889
316,133
313,655
310,528
306,813
302,578
297,775
292,462
286,681
280,474
273,890
267,061
260,365
254,052
248,224
242,907
293,590
298,031
301,779
304,492
309,569
313,616
316,451
318,535
320,134
321,221
321,726
322,060
322,325
316,514
304,443
293,227
283,692
273,151
261,761
249,574
236,715
223,482
210,647
198,686
187,788
162,404
293,590
298,031
301,758
304,393
309,325
313,132
315,565
317,099
317,818
317,520
315,687
313,142
309,423
304,835
299,471
293,428
286,634
279,160
271,144
262,601
253,632
244,441
235,568
227,356
219,935
213,320
293,590
296,031
301,768
304,434
309,425
313,326
315,925
317,651
318,691
318,867
318,000
316,303
313,902
310,867
307,281
303,148
298,486
293,329
287,719
281,696
275,308
268,683
262,187
256,061
250,407
245,247
293,590
298,031
301,815
304,551
309,717
313,909
316,975
319,402
321,533
323,457
325,253
327,447
330,116
333,302
337,029
341,321
344,325
345,929
345,990
343,048
338,066
330,760
324,899
318,895
314,637
343,553
293,590
298,031
301,766
304,432
309,420
313,317
315,909
317,624
318,647
318,816
317,889
316,133
313,655
310,528
306,813
302,578
297,775
292,462
266,681
280,474
273,890
267,061
260,365
254,052
248,224
242,907
293,590
298,031
301,762
304,411
309,371
313,222
315,746
317,366
318,248
318,207
316,971
314,798
311,819
308,131
303,819
298,972
293,543
287,612
281,245
274,504
267,456
260,264
253,354
248,996
241,290
236,247
293,590
298,031
301,771
304,446
309,456
313,391
316,049
317,866
319,058
319,502
319,014
317,918
316,333
314,340
312,012
309,419
306,564
303,504
300,283
296,938
293,513
290,088
286,879
284,016
281,546
279,463
293,590
298,031
301,759
304,396
309,334
313,149
315,614
317,146
317,892
317,636
316,064
313,405
309,793
305,329
300,102
294,206
287,571
280,284
272,421
264,050
255,251
246,220
237,486
229,384
222,042
215,478
293,590
298,031
301,756
304,386
309,308
313,098
315,525
316,999
317,656
317,262
315,479
312,520
308,524
303,598
297,839
291,347
284,040
278,014
267,353
258,134
248,443
238,502
226,893
219,986
211,921
204,718
293,590
298,031
301,760
304,403
309,351
313,183
315,676
317,250
318,061
317,909
316,501
314,080
310,760
306,701
301,933
296,566
290,544
283,951
276,859
269,334
261,450
253,367
245,622
238,456
232,002
226,272
293,590
298,031
301,760
304,403
309,350
313,181
315,672
317,243
318,050
317,892
316,474
314,038
310,721
306,621
301,829 LJl296,435 b
290,383
263,757
276,630
269,066
261,148
253,044
245,243
238,043
231,560
225,806
TABLE B.18 Upstream Emissions of CH4 under the Baseline Scenario and for Conventional-Technology Plus 3X Vehicles under the
High-Market-Share Scenario (103 metric tons)
Base
Year Case RFG MeOH EtOH RFD DM E HFCV M FCV GFCV F-T50 B20 LPG CNG LNG
2005200620072008200920102011~Q~2
201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030
1,259 1,237 1,2371,269 1,256 1,2561,279 1,272 1,2721,287 1,283 1,2831,306 1,304 1,3041,322 1,320 1,3211,334 1,331 1,3321 5!A!2 i ‘1’3r7 i ,340., -.-.,.- .G-
1,349 1,341 1,3451,354 1,341 1,3461,355 1,336 1,3441,356 1,327 1,3391,356 1,315 1,3321,356 1,299 1,3221,356 1,281 1,3121,355 1,261 1,2991,355 1,238 1,2861,355 1,213 1,2711,355 1,186 1,2551,356 1,158 1,2381,357 1,128 1,2211,358 1,098 1,2031,360 1,069 1,1861,362 1,042 1,1701,363 1,018 1,1561,366 997 1,144
1,2371,2561,2721,2831,3031,3191,3291.’3-35., ._._._1,3371,3351,3261,3111,2911,2661,2361,2021,1641,1221,0771,029
978926876829786702
1,2371,2561,2721,2831,3041,3201,3311.337., —-.
1,341
1,340
1,335
1,325
1,311
1,294
1,275
1,253
1,228
1,201
1,172
1,141
1,108
1,075
1,044
1,014
988
964
1,237 1,2371,256 1,2561,272 1,2721,283 1,2831,304 1,3041,321 1,3201,332 1,3311 ;340 1,3371,345 1,3411,346 1,3401,344 1,3351,339 1,3251,332 1,3111,322 1,2951,311 1,2751,299 1,2531,285 1,2271,271 1,1971,255 1,1641,238 1,1261,220 1,0841,203 1,0401,186 9991,170 9591,156 9251,144 1,085
1,237 1,2371,256 1,2561,272 1,2721,283 1,2831,304 1,3041,321 1,3201,332 1,3311,340 1,3381,345 1,3411,346 1,3411,344 1,3361,339 1,3271,332 1,3151,322 1,2991,312 1,2811,299 1,2611,286 1,2381,271 1,2131,255 1,1861,238 1,1581,221 1,1281,203 1,0981,186 1,0691,170 1,0421,156 1,0181,144 997
1,2371,2561,2721,2831,3041,3201,3311,3381,3421,3421,3371,3281,3161,3011,2841,2641,2421,2181,1921,1651,1361,1071,0791,0541,0311,010
1,237 1,2371,256 1,2561,272 1,2721,283 1,2831,304 1,3041,320 1,3201,330 1,3311,337 1,3381,341 1,3421,340 1,3421,334 1,3381,324 1,3301,310 1,3181,292 1,3041,272 1,2881,249 1,2701,223 1,2491,195 1,2261,164 1,2021,132 1,1771,098 1,1501,063 1,1231,029 1,097
998 1,073970 1,052945 1,034
1,2371,2561,2721,2831,3041,3221,3331,3421,3491,3531,3541,3551,3541,3541,3531,3531,3531,3531,3541,3551,3581,3611,3641,3681,3731,377
1,2371,2561,2721,2831,3041,3221,3331,3421,3491,3531,3541,355 b
m1,3541,3541,3531,3531,3531,3531,3541,3551,3581,3611,3641,3681,3721,379
TABLE B.19 Upstream Emissions of N20 under the Baseline Scenario and for Conventional-Technology Plus 3X Vehicles under the
High-Market-Share Scenario (103 metric tons)
Base
Year Case RFG MeOH EtOH RFD DM E HFCV M FCV GFCV F- T50 B20 LPG CNG LNG
20052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030
33.733.934.231.529.227.125.023.021.119.417.816.214.913.612.411.410.4
9.58.78.07.36.76.15.65.14.7
33.133.634.031.429.227.024.922.921.019.217.515.914.413.011.710.8
9.58.57.66.86.15.44.84.33.89,5
33.133.634.031.429.227.024.922.921.019.217.515.914.413.011.710.6
9.68.67.87.16.45.95.45.04.65.8
33.133.634.031.529.427.525.824.323.423.023.525.027.627.123.320.920.520.420.420.621.021.522.122.623.264.7
33.133.634.031.429.227.024.922.921.019.217.415.814.312.911.610.4
9.38.37,36.55.75.14.53.93.56.8
33.133.634.031.429.227.024.922.921.019.217.515.914.413.011.710.6
9.68.67.87.16.45.95.45.04.65.7
33.133.634.031.429.227.125.023.121.4
9.88.57.46.66.15.95.96.26.77.48.39.4
20.722.023.224.5
5.5
33.133.634.031.429.227.024.922.921.019.217.515.914.413,011.710.6
9.68.67.87.16.45.95.45.04.64.3
33.133.634.031.429.227.024.922.921.019.217.515.914.413,011.710.6
9.58.57.66.86.15.44.84.33.83.4
33.133.634.031.429.227.024.922.921.019.217.415.814.312.9
1.60.49.38.37.46.55.85.14.64.13.63.2
33.133.634.031.429.227.024.922.921.019.317.616.014.613.312.111.010.0
9.28.47.77.16.66.15.75.45.1
33.133.634.031.429.227.024.922.9
1.09.17.45.84.22.81.50.39.28.27.26.45.75.04.43.93.43.0
33.133.634.031.429.227.024.922.921.019.317.616.014.613.212.010.9
9.88.98.07.26.55.85.24.74.23.8
33.133.634.031.429.227.125.123.221.520.018.817.9 <17.317.017.017.318.018.920.121.623.325.227.128.930.632.3
TABLE B.20 Upstream Energy Useunder the Baseline Scenario and for Conventional-Technology Plus 3X Vehicles under the High-Market-Share Scenario (Quads)
BaseYear Case RFG MeOH EtOH RFD DM E HFCV M FCV GFCV F-T50 B20 LPG CNG LNG
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
4.24.24.34.34.44.44.54.54.54.54.54.54.54.54.54.54.54.54.54.54.54.54.54.54.54.5
4.14,24.34.34.44.44.44.54.54.54.44.44.44.34.34.24.14.03.93.83.73.63.53.43.43.3
4.14.24.34.34.44.44.44.54.54.54.54.54.54.54.44.44.44.34.34.34.24.24.24.14.14.1
4.14.24.34.34.44.44.44.54.54.54.54.54.54.54.54.54.64.64.64.74.74.84.84.94.95.0
4.14.24.34.34.44.44.44.54.54.54.44.44.34.34.24.14.03.93.83.73.53.43.33,23.13.0
4.14.24.34.34.44.44.44.54.54.54.54.54.54.54.44.44.44.34.34.34.24.24.14.14.14.0
4.14.24.34.34.44.44.54,54,54.54.54.64.64.64.64.64.74.74.64.64.54.44.44.34.24.2
4.14.24.34.34.44.44.44.54.54.54,54.54.54.54.44.44.44.34.34.34.24,24.24.14.14.1
4.14.24.34.34.44.44.44.54.54.54.44.44.44.34.34.24.14.03.93.83.73.63.53.43.43.3
4.14.24.34.34.44.44.44.54.54.54.54.54.44.44.44.34.34.34.24.24.14.04.03.93.93.9
4.1
4.2
4.3
4.3
4.4
4.4
4.4
4.!5
4.5
4.5
4.4
4.4
4.3
4.3
4.2
4.1
4.03.93.83.73.63.53.33.23.13.0
4.14.24.34.34.44.44.44.54.54.54.44.44.34.34.24.14.03.93.73.63.53.33.23.12.92.8
4.14.24.34.34.44.44.44.54.54.54.44.44.44.34.24.24.14.03.93.83.73.63.43.33.33.2
4.14.24.34.34.44.44.44.54.54.54.5 Mm4.44.44.34.34.24,14.04.03.93.83.73.63.53.43.4
TABLE 6,21 Upstream Fossil Energy Use under the Baseline Scenario and for Conventional-Technology Plus 3X Vehicles under theHigh-Market-Share Scenario (Quads)
BaseYear Case RFG MeOH EtOH RFD DM E HFCV M FCV GFCV F- T50 B20 LPG CNG LNG
20052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030
4.04.04.14.14.24.24.24.34.34.34.34.34.34.34.34.34.34.34.34.34.34.34.34.34.34.4
3.94.04.04.14.24.24.24.34.34.34.34.24.24.14.14.03.93.93.83.73.63.53.43.33.23.2
3.94.04.04.14.24.24.24.34.34.34.34.34.34.34.34.24.24.24.24.14.14.14.04.04.04.0
3.94.04.04.14.24.24.24.34.34.34.34.34.34.24.03.93.83.63.43.33.12.92.72.62.42.3
3.94.04.04.14.24.24.24.34.34.34.24.24.24.14.03.93.83.73.63.53.43.33.23.02.92.9
3.94.04.04.14.24.24.24.34.34.34.34.34.34.34,34.24.24.24.24.14.14.14.04.04.03.9
3.94.04.04.14.24.24.34,34.34.34.34.44.44.44.44.44.44.44.44.34.34.24.14.03.93.9
3.94.04.04.14.24.24.24.34.34.34.34.34.34.34.34.24.24.24.24.14.14.14.04.04.04.0
3.94.04.04.14.24.24.24.34.34.34.34.24.24.14.14.03.93.93.83.73.63.53.43.33.23.2
3.94.04.04.14.24.24.24.34.34.34.34.34.34.24.24.24.14.14.14.04.03.93.93.83.83.8
3.94.04.04.14.24.24.24.34.34.34.24.24.24.14.04.03.93.83.73.63.53.33.23.13.02.9
3.94.04.04.14.24.24.24.34.34.34.24.24.14.14.03.93,83.73.63.53.33.23.12.92.82.7
3.94.04.04.14.24.24.24.34.34.34.24.24.24.14.04.03.93.83.73.63.53.43.33.23.13.0
3.94.04.04.14.24.24.24.34.34.34.34.2 Q
u4.24.24.14.04.03.93.83.73.63.63.53.43.33.3
TABLE 5.22 Upstream Petroleum Use under the Baseline Scenario and for Conventional-Technology Plus 3X Vehicles under the High-Market-Share Scenario (Quads)
BaseYear Case RFG MeOH EtOH RFD DM E HFCV M FCV GFCV F- T50 B20 LPG CNG LNG
20052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.9
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
1.9 1.9
1.9 1.9
1.9 1.9
1.9 1.9
2.0 2.0
2.0 2.0
2.0 2.0
2.0 2.0
2.0 2.0
2.0 2.0
2.0 2.0
2.0 2.0
2.0 2.0
2.0 1.9
1.9 1.9
1.9 1.8
1.9 1.8
1.8 1.7
1.8 1.7
1.8 1.6
1.7 1.5
1.7 1.5
1.6 1.4
1.6 1.3
1.5 1.3
1.5 1.2
1.91.91.91.92.02.02.02.02.02.02.02.02!02.01.91.91.81.81.71.71.61.61.51.51.41.4
1.91.91.91.92.02.02.02.02.02.02.02.02.01.91.91.91.81.81.71.71.61.51.51.41.41.3
1.91.91.91.92.02.02.02.02.02.02.02.02.01.91.91.81.81.71.71.61.51.51.41.31.31.2
1.91.91.91.92.02.02.02.02.02.02.02.02.01.91.91.81.81.71.6 .1.61.51.41.31.31.21.1
1.91.91.91.92.02.02.02.02.02.02.02.02.01.91.91.81.81.71.71.61.51.51.41.31.31.2
1.9 1.91.9 1.91.9 1.91.9 1.92.0 2.02.0 2.02.0 2.02.0 2.02.0 2.02.0 2.02.0 2.02.0 2.02.0 2.02.0 1.91.9 1.91.9 1.91.9 1.81.8 1.81.8 1.71.8 1.61.7 1.61.7 1.51.6 1.41.6 1.41.5 1.31.5 1.3
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.9
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
1,9
1.9
1.9
1.8
1.8
1.7
1.7
1.6
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.9 1.9 1.91.9 1.9 1.91.9 1.9 1.91.9 1.9 1.92.0 2.0 2.02.0 2.0 2.02.0 2.0 2.02.0 2.0 2.02.0 2.0 2.02.0 2.0 2.02.0 2.0 2.02.0 2.0 2.0 ~
2,0 2.0 2.01.9 1.9 1.91.9 1.9 1.91.8 1.8 1.91.8 1.8 1.81,7 1.7 1.81.7 1.6 1.71.6 1.6 1.61.5 1.5 1.61.4 1.4 1.51.4 1.3 1.51.3 1.3 1.41.3 1.2 1.31.2 1.1 1.3
TABLE B.23 Total Emissions of NOX under the Baseline Scenario and for Conventional-Technology Plus 3X Vehicles under the High-Market-Share Scenario (103 metric tons)
Base
Year Case RFG MeOH EtOH RFD DM E HFCV M FCV GFCV F- T50 B20 LPG CNG LNG
20052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030
3,0853,0422,9922,9162,8782,8232,7552,6792,6022,5292,4622,4052,3602,3272,3022,2862,2772,2722,2702,2752,2792,2842,2882,2932,2982,303
2,9392,9542,9422,8912,8682,8222,7542,6772,5992,5242,4542,3942,3442,3052,2742,2502,2332,2192,2082,2022,1962,1902,1852,1802,1772,175
2,9392,9542,9422,8912,8692,8242,7562,6812,6062,5342,4702,4172,3772,3502,3322,3242,3232,3282,3362,3512,3672,3822,3982,4122,4252,438
2,9392,9542,9422,8912,8692,8242,7572,6832,6082,5382,4772,4292,3962,3612,3252,3012,2902,2832,2802,2832,2862,2892,2932,2982,3032,303
2,9392,9542,9422,8912,8682,8222,7542,6772,5992,5232,4532,3912,3412,3002,2682,2432,2232,2072,1932,1852,1762,1682,1592,1522,1472,143
2,9392,9542,9422,8912,8692,8242,7562,6812,6052,5342,4702,4172,3772,3492,3322,3242,3232,3272,3362,3512,3662,3822,3972,4122,4252,438
2,9392,9542,9422,8912,8692,8242,7562,6812,6052,5322,4682,4142,3712,3392,3162,2982,2802,2592,2322,1992,1562,1032,0501,9921,9371,802
2,9392,9542,9422,8912,8692,8232,7542,6782,6002,5252,4552,3952,3432,3002,2632,2302,1982,1662,1322,0982,0582,0141,9651,9121,8571,801
2,939 2,9392,954 2,9542,942 2,9422,891 2,8912,868 2,8682,821 2,8222,752 2,7542,674 2,6782,594 2,6002,515 2,5242,440 2,4552,371 2,3952,310 2,3462,255 2,3072,204 2,2772,156 2,2552,108 2,2382,058 2,2252,003 2,2151,949 2,210
,888 2,206,821 2,201,752 2,196,680 2,193,609 2,191,538 2,190
2,9392,9542,9422,8912,8682,8222,7542,6772,5992,5242,4542,3942,3442,3052,2742,2512,2332,2192,2072,2022,1952,1892,1832,1782,1742,171
2,939 2,9392,954 2,9542,942 2,9422,891 2,8912,868 2,8692,822 2,8232,754 2,7542,677 2,6782,599 2,6012,523 2,5262,453 2,4582,393 2,3992,342 2,3512,302 2,3142,271 2,2862,247 2,2662,228 2,2522,213 2,2432,201 2,2352,194 2,2342,187 2,2332,179 2,2312,173 2,2302,167 2,2302,163 2,2302,160 2,231
2,9392,9542,9422,8912,8692,8232,7552,6802,6032,5302,4642,409 ~
2,3662,3352,3142,3022,2972,2972,3012,3122,3232,3352,3472,3602,3722,384
TABLE B.24 Total Emissions of CO under the Baseline Scenario and for Conventional-Technology Plus 3X Vehicles under the High-Market-Share Scenario (103 metric tons)
BaseYear Case RFG MeOH EtOH RFD DM E HFCV M FCV GFCV F-T50 B20 LPG CNG LNG
2005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202’1202220232024202520262027202820292030
39,990 37,741 37,741 37,741 37,741 37,741 37,741 37,741 37,741 37,74139,351 37,987 37,987 37,987 37,987 37,987 37,987 37,987 37,987 37,98738,575 37,812 37,812 37,812 37,812 37,812 37,811 37,811 37,811 37,81237,444 37,069 37,069 37,069 37,068 37,068 37,067 37,067 37,067 37,06836,828 36,688 36,689 36,689 36,686 36,686 36,683 36,683 36,683 36,68635,943 35,943 35,943 35,944 35,937 35,938 35,931 35,931 35,930 35,93734,865 34,864 34,865 34,866 34,852 34,853 34,841 34,841 34,840 34,85233,673 33,672 33,674 33,676 33,649 33,651 33,631 33,631 33,629 33,65032,467 32,465 32,467 32,470 32,423 32,426 32,394 32,394 32,391 32,42431,316 31,313 31,317 31,322 31,241 31,246 31,194 31,194 31,190 31,24230,289 30,284 30,291 30,298 30,165 30,172 30,090 30,090 30,083 30,16729,428 29,421 29,431 29,443 29,228 29,239 29,113 29,114 29,103 29,23128,757 28,746 28,761 28,779 28,446 28,462 28,279 28,280 28,265 28,45028,266 28,251 28,271 28,286 27,799 27,820 27,567 27,569 27,548 27,80327,929 27,909 27,935 27,940 27,250 27,278 26,942 26,945 26,918 27,25627,716 27,691 27,724 27,721 26,760 26,795 26,365 26,368 26,335 26,76827,603 27,573 27,613 27,606 26,293 26,336 25,795 25,802 25,761 26,30327,573 27,535 27,584 27,573 25,825 25,877 25,209 25,223 25,174 25,83727,596 27,551 27,610 27,594 25,325 25,386 24,577 24,600 24,542 25,33927,719 27,667 27,734 27,714 24,838 24,909 23,944 23,981 23,913 24,85427,838 27,778 27,856 27,830 24,264 24,345 23,211 23,264 23,187 24,28227,957 27,889 27,976 27,946 23,610 23,702 22,388 22,462 22,375 23,63128,075 27,999 28,096 28,062 22,888 22,990 21,500 21,593 21,496 22, !31228,195 28,111 28,217 28,179 22,112 22,224 20,563 20,677 20,571 22,13828,317 28,227 28,340 28,299 21,301 21,421 19,603 19,734 19,620 21,32928,441 28,345 28,465 28,536 20,473 20,599 18,640 18,784 18,663 20,503
37,741 37,74137,987 37,98737’,812 37,81237,068 37,06936,686 36,68835,937 35,94334,852 34,86433,650 33,67232,424 32,46531,242 31,31330,166 30,28429,229 29,42028,448 28,74627,801 28,25127,253 27,90926,764 27,69126,298 27,57225,831 27,53525,332 27,55124,846 27,66624,273 27,77823,621 27,88822,900 27,99922,125 28,11121,315 28,22620,488 28,345
37,741 37,74137,987 37,98737,812 37,81237,069 37,06936,688 36,68935,943 35,94334,864 34,86533,672 33,67332,465 32,46631,313 31,31630,284 30,28929,421 29,42828,747 28,75728,252 28,26527,911 27,92827,694 27,71627,576 27,60327,539 27,57227,556 27,59627,672 27,71927,785 27,83927,896 27,95828,007 28,07728,120 28,19728,236 28,32028,356 28,445
TABLE 6.25 Total Emissions of VOCS under the Baseline Scenario and for Conventional-Technology Plus 3X Vehicles under the High-Market-Share Scenario (103 metric tons)
BaseYear Case RFG MeOH EtOH RFD DM E HFCV M FCV GFCV F- T50 B20 LPG CNG LNG
20052006200720082009201020112012201320142075201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030
2,0152,0162,0302,0502,1112,1692,2222,2702,3132,3502,3812,4062,4282,4462,4612,4732,4842,4942,5032,5122,5212,5292,5382,5462,5552,565
1,8921,9491,9982,0382,1062,1682,2212,2692,3112,3482,3772,4002,4192,4342,4462,4552,4612,4662,4702,4732,4762,4782,4812,4842,4882,492
1,8921,9491,9982,0382,1062,1692,2222,2702,3122,3482,3782,4022,4222,4372,4492,4582,4652,4712,4752,4782,4802,4822,4842,4862,4882,491
1,8921,9491,9982,0382,1062,1692,2222,2702,3122,3492,3792,4042,4242,4392,4492,4572,4632,4682,4722,4752,4782,4802,4822,4862,4892,515
1,8921,9491,9972,0382,1062,1672,2202,2662,3072,3402,3642,3812,3902,3942,3912,3822,3672,3452,3182,2852,2472,2052,1612,1152,0702,025
1,8921,9491,9972,0382,1062,1682,2202,2672,3072,3412,3662,3832,3942,3982,3972,3892,3742,3542,3282,2952,2582,2172,1732,1282,0822,037
1,8921,9491,9972,0372,1062,1672,2192,2642,3032,3342,3552,3672,3702,3642,3502,3282,2952,2512,1982,1342,0601,9791,8951,8101,7271,607
1,8921,9491,9972,0372,1062,1672,2192,2642,3032,3342,3552,3672,3692,3632,3492,3262,2942,2532,2042,1482,0842,0141,9411,8671,7941,721
1,892 1,8921,949 1,9491,997 1,9972,038 2,0382,106 2,1062,167 2,1672,219 2,2202,265 2,2662,304 2,3072,336 2,3402,358 2,3642,371 2,3802,376 2,3902,373 2,3932,362 2,3902,344 2,3802,318 2,3652,285 2,3432,245 2,3152,198 2,2812,146 2,2422,088 2,2002,029 2,1551,969 2,1091,909 2,0631,851 2,017
1,8921,9491,9972,0382,1062,1682,2202,2672,3072,3412,3662,3842,3952,4002,3982,3912,3782,3592,3342,3042,2692,2302,1892,1462,1032,060
1,8921,9491,9972,0382,1062,1672,2202,2662,3062,3392,3632,3792,3872,3892,3842,3742,3572,3342,3072,2742,2372,1972,1552,1142,0732,033
1,8921,9491,9972,0382,1062,1672,2192,2662,3062,3392,3622,3782,3862,3882,3832,3722,3542,3312,3032,2692,2312,1902,1482,1052,0632,023
1,8921,9491,9972,0382,1062,1682,2202,2662,3072,3402,3652,382 pJ
2,3912,3952,3922,3832,3682,3482,3232,2922,2582,2202,1812,1412,1012,063
TABLE B.26 Total Emissions of PMIO under the Baseline Scenario and for Conventional-Technology Plus 3X Vehicles under the High-
Market-Share Scenario (103 metric tons)
BaseYear Case RFG MeOH EtOH RFD DM E HFCV M FCV GFCV F- T50 B20 LPG CNG LNG
20052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030
136138139140142144146147148149149150150150150150151151151151151151151151151152
134 134 134136 136 136138 138 138139142144146147148148149148148148147146146145144143141140139138137137
3942444547474848474745444241393634322927242220
.
140142145146148150152155158162172189206222241261282306330354376397182
134136138140142144146147148149150151152152153154155157158159161163164166167169
134 134 134 134136 136 136 136138 138 138 138139142144146147148148
39 139 13942 142 14244 144 14446 145 14547 147 14748 147 14748 148 148
149 148148 148148 148148 147147 146146 146145 144144 143143 142142 140141 138140 136139 134137 132137 130136 126
148 148147 147146 146145 145144 144142 142140 140138 138136 136133 133131 131128 128125 126123 123121 121119 120
134136138140142144146147148149150151152152153154155156158159161
134 134136 136138 138140 139142 142144 144146 145147 146148 147149 148150 147151 147152 146153 144154 143155 141156 138157 136158 133160 130161 127
162164165167168
63 12465 12166 11868 11669 114
134136138139142144145147147148148147146145143142140137135132129127124121119117
134136138
404244464748484949 a494948484747464545
144144143143143
TABLE B.27 Total Emissions of SOxunder the Baseline Scenatio and for Conventional-Technology Plus 3X Vehicles under the High-Market-Share Scenario (103 metric tons)
BaseYear Case RFG MeOH EtOH RFD DM E HFCV M FCV GFCV F- T50 B20 LPG CNG LNG
20052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030
448451455453455456456454452449445441437432428423419415411407404400397393390387
440447452452455456455453449445439431423414404394383372360348336323312301291282
440447452452454455454452448443436427417406393380366351335319303286270256242230
440447452452455457457455454452451450450437411388369349329307285262240220201180
440447452452455456455452449444437430420410400388376363349336322308294282271261
440447452452454455454452448443436427417405393379365350334318301284268253239227
440447452452455456455454451448444439434430425421416412409405402399397396394309
440447452452454455454452448443436427417406393380366351335319303286270256242230
440447452452455456455453449445439431423414404394383372360348336323312301291282
440447452452454455454452448444437428419408396384371357342328312297282269257246
440447452452455456455452449444437430420410399388375362348334320306292279268257
440447452452454455454452448443436427417406393380366350335318302285269254240228
440447452452455456455453449445439431423413403392380367354341326312299286274263
440447452452454455454452449444437429 pJ419409397385372359345330315301287274262252
TABLE B.28 Total Emissions of C02 under the Baseiine Scenario and for Conventional-Technology Plus 3X Vehicles under the High-Market-Share Scenario (103 metric tons)
BaseYear Case RFG MeOH EtOH RFD DM E HFCV M FCV GFCV F-T50 B20 LPG CNG LNG
2005 1,338,923 1,316,140 1,316,140 1,316,140 1,316,140 1,316,140 1,316,140 1,316,140 1,316,140 1,316,140 1,316,140 1,316,140 1,316,140 1,316,1402006 1,349,744 1,336,052 1,336,052 1,336,052 1,336,052 1,336,052 1,336,052 1,336,052 1,336,052 1,336,052 1,336,052 1,336,052 1,336,052 1,336,0522007 1,360,630 1,352,778 1,352,782 1,352,750 1,352,777 1,352,782 1,352,787 1,352,782 1,352,778 1,352,789 1,352,778 1,352,770 1,352,767 1,352,767
2008 1,369,1162009 1,389,5662010 1,406,5112011 1,419,0472012 1,428,2172013 1,435,21120142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030
,439,780
,364,664,386,911,404,190,415,519,422,793,426,761,426,592
,364,681,386,950,404,265
,415,645,422,992,427,064,427,048
,364,573
,386,685
,403,743
,414,718
,421,466
,424,621
,423,172
,441,537 1,421,064 1,421,740 1,415,669,442,253 1,411,334 1,412,300 1,403,094,442,340 1,397,993 1,399,295 1,386,073,442,047 1,381,470 1,383,132 1,359,005,441,566 1,362,152 1,364,177 1,322,075
1,441,089 1,340,434 1,342,8031,440,803 1,316,106 1,318,7971,440,807 1,289,527 1,292,4951,441,132 1,260,994 1,264,1751,441,777 1,230,781 1,234,0941,442,770 1,199,192 1,202,5401,444,053 1,166,953 1,170,2191,445,600 1,135,983 1,139,0261,447,369 1,107,486 1,110,1581,449,331 1,081,914 1,084,0821,451,435 1,059,307 1,060,851
,364,661,386,902,404,173,415,488,422,742
,426,679,426,461
,364,680 1,364,633,386,947 1,386,832,404,259 1,404,035,415,635 1,415,241,422,976 1,422,334,427,038 1,426,020,427,006 1,425,408
,420,857 1,421,673 1,419,196,411,018 1,412,198 1,408,481,397,535 1,399,147 1,393,865,380,841 1,382,929 1,375,792,361,321 1,363,909 1,354,661
,282,786 1,339,374 1,342,461 1,330,880,241,568 1,314,786 1,318,371 1,302,201,196,117 1,287,915 1,291,975 1,268,896,146,936 1,259,063 1,263,552 1,231,165,094,408 1,228,506 1,233,358 1,187,881,039,015 1,196,550 1,201,685 1,140,365982,020 1,163,929 1,169,238 1,089,318926,745 1,132,585 1,137,921 1,040,996875,283 1,103,733 1,108,937 995,492828,452 1,077,833 1,082,750 955,501770,798 1,054,927 1,059,419 951,947
,364,681,386,950,404,265
,415,645,422,992,427,064,427,048,421,740,412,300,399,295,383,132,364,177
,364,664,386,911,404,190,415,519,422,793,426,761,426,592
,364,710,387,024,404,415,415,921,423,461,427’,838,428,313
,421,064 1,423,779,411,334 1,415,481,397,993 1,403,991,381,470 1,389,723,362,152 1,373,040
,364,664,386,910,404,189,415,515,422,786,426,747,426,566,421,018,411,256,397,867,381,283,361,884
,364,633 1,364,623,386,834 1,386,809,404,039 1,403,989,415,247 1,415,159,422,344 1,422,197,426,036 1,425,799,425,434 1,425,055,419,237 1,418,639,408,544 1,407,631,393,956 1,392,635,375,918 1,374,100,354,826 1,352,427
1,364,6211,386,8041,403,9801,415,1421,422,1691,425,7541,424,9821,418,5251,407,4571,392,3841,373,7551,351,974
,342,803 1,340,434 1,354,318 1,340,066 1,331,092 1,328,031 1,327,456,318,797 1,316,106 1,333,4~ 1 1,315,616 1,304,464 1,300,649 1,299,933,292,495 1,289,527 1,310,647 1,288,889 1,275,318 1,270,660 1,269,790,264,175 1,260,994 1,286,294 1,260,182 1,243,973 1,238,392 1,237,353,234,094 1,230,781 1,260,594 1,229,769 1,210,724 1,204,146 1,202,926,202,540 1,199,192 1,233,819 1,197,954 1,175,897 1,168,256 1,166,843,170,219 1,166,953 1,206,587 1,165,462,139,026 1,135,983 1,180,535 1,134,226,110,158 1,107,486 1,156,683 1,105,455,084,082 1,081,914 1,135,409 1,079,608,060,851 1,059,307 1,116,739 1,056,727
,140,290 1,131,542 1,129,929,106,014 1,096,177 1,094,371,074,392 1,063,527 1,061,539,045,929 1,034,113 1,031,957,020,677 1,007,988 1,005,682
TABLE B.29 Total Emissions of CH4 under the Baseline Scenario and for Conventional-Technology Plus 3X Vehicles under the High-Market-Share Scenario ( 103 metric tons)
BaseYear Case RFG MeOH EtOH RFD DME HFCV M FCV GFCV F- T50 B20 LPG CNG LNG
20052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030
1,4391,4511,4641,4751,4981,5181,5341,5451,5551,5621,5661,5681,5701,572f ,573
1,5741,5751,5761,5781,5801,5831,5851,5881,5911,5941,598
1,4141,4371,4561,4701,4961,5161,5301,5401,5471,5491,5461,5391,5291,5151,4981,4791,4581,4341,4091,3821,3531,3241,2971,2711,2491,229
1,4141,4371,456
,470,496,517,531,542,549
1,5531,5531,5491,5421,5331,5221,5091,4941,4781,4611,443
,423,404,385,367,352,338
1,4141,4371,4561,4701,4951,5151,5281,5371,5421,5421,5341,5211,5021,4761,4461,4111,3731,3301,2831,2341,1811,1271,0751,026982897
1,4141,4371,4561,4701,4951,5161,5291,5391,5451,5461,5401,5301,5151,496
,474,448,419,387,352,315
1,2761,2361,1971,1611,1291,100
1,4141,4371,456
,470,496,516,531,541,548,552,550,544,536,524,510
1,4951,4771,4571,4351,412
,388,363,339,317,298,280
1,4141,4371,4561,4701,4951,5151,5291,5391,5441,5451,5401,5291,5141,4951,4721,4461,4151,3791,3391,2941,2451,1931,1431,0971,0551,209
1,4141,4371,4561,4701,4961,5161,5311,5411,5481,551i ,5491,5441,5351,5231,5081,4921,4731,4531,4301,4061,3811,3551,3301,3071,2871,268
1,414 1,4141,437 1,4371,456 1,4561,470 1,4701,495 1,4951,516 1,51’61,529 1,5301,539 1,5391,545 1,5451,546 1,5471,541 1,5431,532 1,5331,517 1,5201,499 1,5031,4781,4531,4251,3951,3611,3261,2881,2501,2131,1791,1481,121
,483,459,433,404,373,339,304,268,233,201,172,146
1,4141,4371,4561,4701,4951,5151,5291,5391,5441,5451,5401,5291,5141,4941,4711,4441,4141,3811,3441,3061,2651,2231,1831,1451,1111,081
1,4141,4371,4561,4701,4961,5161,5311,5411,5481,5511,5481,5421,5321,5201,5051,4881,4691,4481,4251,4011,3761,3501,3251,3031,2831,266
1,414 1,4141,437 1,4371,456 1,456
,471,498,521,540,556,572,590,610,637,670,709
1,4711,4981,5211,5401,5561,5721,5901,6101,637 Q
w1,6701,709
,754 11,806 11,865 11,931 12,004 22,083 2
754806865931004083
2,168 2,1682,257 2,2562,345 2,3442,429 2,4282,507 2,5062,579 2,581
TABLE B.30 Total Emissions of N20under the Baseline Scenafio and for Conventional-Technology Plus 3X Vehicles under the High-Market-Share Scenario (103 metric tons)
BaseYear Case RFG MeOH EtOH RFD DME HFCV M FCV GFCV F- T50 B20 LPG CNG LNG
20052006200720082009201020112012
201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030
45.846.346.744.242.240.338.436,7
35.033.432.030.629.328.227.126.125.324.523.723.122.522.021.521.120.720.4
45.045.846.444.042.140.238.436,634.933.331.730.228.927.626.425.324.423.522.721.921.320.720.219.819.425.2
45.045.846.444.042.140.238.436.634.933.231.730.228.827.626.425.424.423,622.922.221.721,220.820.520.221.5
45.045.846.544,142.440.739.338.037.237.037.739.442.141.737.935.635.435.335.535.836.236.837.538.138.880.4
45.045.846.444.042.140.238.436.634.933.231.730.228.827.526.225.124.123.222.421.621.020.419.919.519.122.5
45.045.846.444.042.140.238.436.634.933.231.730.228.827.626.425.424.423.622,922.221.721.220.820.520.221.4
45.045.846.444.042.140.338.536.735.133.732.431.230.329.729.228.928.929.029.329.730,331.031.732.533.313.9
45.045.846.444.042.140.238.336.534.733.031.329.728.126.52!5.023.622.220.919.7
8.57.36.25.24.33.4
45.045.846.444.042.140.238.336.534.833.131.429.728.126.525.023.622.220.819.5
8.26.95.74.63.62.6
12.7 11.8
45.045.846.444.042.140.238.436.634.933.231.630.128.727.426.225.124.123.222.4’21.721.020.520.0!9,619.218.9
45.045.846.444.042.140.338.436.634.933.331.830.429.027.826.825.824.924.123.522.922.421.921.621.221.020.8
45.045.846.444.042.140.238.436.634.833.231.630.128.727.426.225.124.023.122.321.520.920.319.819.419.018.7
45.045.846.444.042.140.338.436.634.933.331.830.429.027.826.725.624.723.823.022.321.721.120.620.219.819.5
45.045.846.544.042.240.338.636.935.434.133.032.2 ~
31.731.631.732.132.833.935.236.738.540.542.544.446.247.9
TABLE B.31 Total Energy Use under the Baseline Scenario and for Conventional-Technology Plus 3X Vehicles under the High-Market-Share Scenario (Quads)
BaseYear Case RFG MeOH EtOH RFD DM E HFCV M FCV GFCV F- T50 B20 LPG CNG LNG
20052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030
18.318.4
8.68.78.99.29.39.59.69.69.69.69.69.69.69.69.69.69.6
19.619.619.719.7 /19.719.7
17.918.2
8.48.68.99.19.39.4
19.419.419.419.219.0
8.88.68.37.97.67.26.86.35.95.55.14.7
17.918.2
8.48.68.99.19.39.4
19.519.519.419.319.1
9.08.78.58.27.97.57.26.86.46.15.75.4
19.7 14.4 15.2
17.918.218.418.618.919.119.319.419.519,519.419.319.119.018.818.618.418.117.917.617.317.016.716.516.316.1
17.918.2
8.48.68.99.19.39.4
19.419.419.319.219.018.818.518.217.817.417.016.616.115.615.214.814.414.1 15.2
17.918.2
8.48.68.99.19.39.49.59.59.49.39.18.98.78.58.27,97.57.26.86.46.15.75.4
17.918.218.418.618.919.219.319.419.519.519.519.419.219.118.918.718.518.217.917.517.116.716.315.915.615.3
17.918.218.418.618.919.119.319.419.519.519.419.319.1
9.08.78.58.27.97.57.26.86.46.15.75.4
17.918,2
8,48.68.99.19.39.49.49.49.49.29.08.88.68.37,97.67.2
16,816.315.915.515.114.7
15.2 14.4 15.0
17.918.2
8.48.68.99.19.39.49.59.59.49.39.18.98.78.48.17.87.47.16.76.35.95.65.3
17.918.218.418.618.919.119.319.419.419.419.419.219.018.818.518.217.917.517.116.616.215.715.314.914.514.2
17.918.218.418.618.919.119.319.419.419.419.319.219.018.718.418.117.717.316.816.415.915.314.814.413.913.6
17.918.2
8.48.68.99.19.39.49.49.49.39.29.08.88.58.17.87.36.96.45.95.44.94.43.9
17.918.2
8.48.68.99.19.39.49.49.49.49.2 %9.08.88.58.17.87.46.96.45.95.44.94.44.0
13.6 13.6
TABLE B.32 Total Fossil Energy Use under the Baseline Scenario and for Conventional-Technology Plus 3X Vehicles underthe High-Market-Share Scenario (Quads)
Base
Year Case RFG MeOH EtOH RFD DM E HFCV M FCV GFCV F-T50 B20 LPG CNG LNG
17.818.0
17.818.0
17.818.0
17.818,0
17.818.0
17.818.0
17.818.0
17.818.0
17.818.0
17.818.0
17.818.0
17.818.0
2005200620072008200920102011p~flz
201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030
18.118.2
17.818.0
8.48.58.79.09.1g.~
9.49.49.49.59.59.59.49.49.49.49.49.59.59.59.59.59.6
8.28.48.78.99.1g.~
9.29,29.29.08.98.68.48.17.87.47.06.6
8.28.48.78.99.19.2
9.39.39.29.19.08.88.68.38.07.77,47.16.76.36.05.65.3
18.218.418.718.919.119,219.219.219.118.918.618.317.817.216.716.115.414.713.913.212.411.711.110.5
18.218.418.718.919.119.219.219.219.219.018.818.618.318.017.717.316.916.416.015.515.114.714.314.0
8.28.48.78.99.19.29.39.39.29.19.08.88.68.38.07.77.47.06.76.36.05.65.3
18.218.418.718.919.119.219.319.319.219.219.018.918.718.518.117.516.916.115.114.413.813.112.612.1
18.218.418.718.919.119.219.319.319.219.119.018.818,618.318.017.717.417.116.716.316.015.615.315.1
8.28.48.78.99.19.2
18.218.418.718.919.119.219.319.319.219.118.9
8.28.48.78.99.19.2
18.218.418.718.919.119.219.219.219.119.018.818.618.318,017.617.216.816.415.915.415.014.614.213.9
18.218.418.718.919.119.2
18.218.418.718.919.119.219.219.219.219.018.9
19.219.219.219.018.9
19.219”219.119.018,818.618.317.917.617.216.816.3
16.6 15.816.2 15.315.8 14.915.5 14.415.2 14.0
14.3 14.9 13.7
9.29.29.29.08.88.68.38.07.77.36.96.56.15.65.24.84.4
8.68.48.17.87.47.06.66.25.75.34.94.6
8.78.58.28.07.67.36.9
8.68.48.17.87.47.16.66.25.85.45.04.7
16.215.715.314.914.6
15.119.6 14.3 15.1 14.1 14,4
TABLE B.33 Total Petroleum Useunder the Baseline Scenario and for Conventional-Technology Plus 3X Vehicles under the High-Market-Share Scenario (Quads)
BaseYear Case RFG MeOH EtOH RFD DM E HFCV M FCV GFCV F-T50 B20 LPG CNG LNG
20052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030
16.016.116.2
6.36.66.86.97.07.17.27.27.27i27.27.2
15.715.916.1
6.36.56.76.97.07.07.06.96.86.76.56.2
15.715.916.1
6.36.56.76.86.96.96.96,86.66.36,05.6
17.2 16.0 15.217.2 15.7 14.717.2 15.4 14.217.2 15.0 13.617.2 14.7 13,017.2 14.3 12.4 12.517.2 13,9 11.7 11.817.2 13.5 11.1 11.217.2 13.2 10.5 10.617.3 12.9 9.9 10.117.3 12.6 9.4 9.6
15.715.916.116.316.516.716.816.916.916.916.816.616.316.015.715.214.814.313.713.1
15.715.916.116.316.516.716.917.017.017.016.916.816.616.416.215.915.615.315.014.6
15.715.916.1
6.36.56.76.86.96.9
16.916.816.616.316.0
5.65.24.74.23.63.02.41.71.10.59.99.4
15.715.916.116.316.516.716.816.916.916.916.816.616.316.015.615.214.714.213.613.012.311.711.010.4
9.89.4
4.23.83.43.12.72.5
15.715.916.116.316.516.716.816.916.916.916.816.616.316.015.615.214.714.213.613.0
2.41.71.10.59.99.4
15.715.916.116.316.516.716.917.017.017.016.916.816.716.516.216.015.715.415.014.7
4.33.93.53.22.92.6
15.715.916,116.316.516.716.916.917,017.016.916.716.516,2
5.95.65.24.84.33.93.42.82.31.91.41.1
15.715.916.1
6.36.56.76.97.07.0
17.016.916.816.616.416.115.915.515.214.814.414.013.613.112.812.412.1
15.715.916.116.316.516.716.916.917.016.916.816.716.416.215.815.515.114.614.113.613.112.512.011.411.010.6
15.715.916.116.316.516.716.816.916.9
6.96.86.66.36.05.65.24.74.23.63.0
12.311.611.010.4
9.89.4
15.715.916.116.316.516.716.816.916.916.916.816.6 ~
16.316.0
5.65.24.74.23.73.12.41.81.10.50.09.5
TABLE B.34 Total Global Warming Potential under the Baseline Scenario and for Conventional-Technology Plus 3X Vehicles under theHigh-Market-Share Scenario (106 metric tons C02 equivalent)
Base
Year Case RFG MeOH EtOH RFD DM E HFCV M FCV GFCV F- T50 620 LPG CNG LNG
20052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030
1,3831,3951,4061,4141,4341,4511,4631,4721,4791,4831,4841,4851,4841,4841,4831,4821,4821,4811,4821,4821,4831,4841,4861,4871,4891,491
1,3601,3801,3981,4091,4311,4491,4601,4661,4701,4691,463i ,4531,4391,4221,4021,3791,3541,3271,2981,2671,2341,2011,1691,1401,1141,093
1,3601,3801,3981,4091,4311,4491,4601,467
1,4701,4701,4641,4541,4411,4241,4041,3821,3581,3311,3021,2711,2391,2061,1751,1451,1191,096
1,3601,3801,3981,4091,4311,4481,4591,4661,4691,4671,4601,4471,4311,4031,3641,3231,2811,2351,1851,1311,0751,017961909861815
1,360 1,3601,380 1,3801,398 1,3981,409 1,4091,431 1,4311,448 1,4491,459 1,4601 ;466 1,467
1,470 1,4701,469 1,4701,463 1,4641,452 1,4541,438 1,4401,421 1,4231,400 1,4041,378 1,3821,352 1,3571,324 1,3301,294 1,3011,263 1,2701,230 1,2381,196 1,2041,164 1,1721,134 1,1431,107 1,1161,085 1,093
1,3601,3801,3981,4091,4311,4481,4591,466
1,4691,4681,4621,4501,4351,4161,3951,3701,3411,3071,2681,2241,1761,1241,0751,029988982
1,360 1,360 1,3601,380 1,380 1,3801 ,3g8 1,398 1,3981,409 1,409 1,4091,431 1,431 1,4311,449 1,448 1,4491,460 1,460 1,460i ,467 1,466 1,467
1,470 1,470 1,4711,470 1,469 1,4711,464 1,463 1,4661,454 1,453 1,4571,440 1,439 1,4451,423 1,421 1,4301,404 1,401 1,4121,381 1,378 1,3931,357 1,353 1,3711,329 1,325 1,3471,300 1,296 1,3221,269 1,264 1,2951,237 1,231 1,2681,204 1,198 1,2401,172 1,166 1,2131,142 1,136 1,1881,115 1,110 1,1661,091 1,087 1,147
1,3601,3801,3981,4091,4311,4481,460l,A~6
1,4701,4691,4631,4531,4391,4211,4011,3781,3531,3251,2961,2641,2311,1981,1661,1361,1091,086
1,3601,3801,3981,4091,4311,4481,459f,46r3
1,4691,4681,4621,4501,4351,4161,3951,3701,3431,3131,2811,2471,2111,1751,1401,1081,0791,053
1,360 1,3601,380 1,3801,398 1,3981,409 1,4091,431 1,4311,448 1,4481,459 1,4591 A66., --- 1 A(3R., ---
1,470 1,4701,469 1,4691,462 1,4631,451 1,4521,437 1,4371,419 1,4191,398 1,3991,374 1,3751,347 1,3491,319 1,3211,288 1,2901,255 1,2581,221 1,2241,185 1,1901,152 1,1571,121 1,1261,093 1,0991,068 1,075