6th IZA/ASE Workshop on EU Enlargement 6th IZA/ASE Workshop on EU Enlargement and the Labor Marketsand the Labor Markets

BULGARIAN LABOUR ISSUES BULGARIAN LABOUR ISSUES AND LABOUR MOBILITY TO AND LABOUR MOBILITY TO

THE EUTHE EU

Prof. D. Sc. Rossitsa RangelovaProf. D. Sc. Rossitsa RangelovaEconomic Research InstituteEconomic Research Institute

Bulgarian Academy of SciencesBulgarian Academy of Sciences

Bucharest, 25-26 November 2013Bucharest, 25-26 November 2013

Basic points:Basic points:

- - Bulgaria was among the most concerned countries Bulgaria was among the most concerned countries in thein the Balkan Balkan region regarding the socio-economic region regarding the socio-economic crisis in the 1990s in terms of the so-called push crisis in the 1990s in terms of the so-called push factor. factor.

- - People in Bulgaria are strongly inclined to emigrate. People in Bulgaria are strongly inclined to emigrate. The experience of the country is indicative of The experience of the country is indicative of migration trends migration trends and specificity and specificity from from and in and in the the SouthSoutheastern Europe, which could provide reliable eastern Europe, which could provide reliable implications for useful conclusions and an adequate implications for useful conclusions and an adequate migration policy both in the national and the migration policy both in the national and the international perspective.international perspective.

RegardingRegarding participation participation of of migrants in foreign migrants in foreign labour markets, three basic groupslabour markets, three basic groups can be divided can be divided::

those who are connected with the those who are connected with the 'brain dr'brain draain'in' phenomenon phenomenon

legal labour migrantslegal labour migrants and and illegal migrantsillegal migrants

TTwowo main types of migration channels can be main types of migration channels can be distinguished:distinguished: permanent migrationpermanent migration, and , and temporarytemporary, , including circulation.including circulation.

The paper is focused on the The paper is focused on the legal labour legal labour migrants, for which the differences evolve migrants, for which the differences evolve mainly from professional specificity. mainly from professional specificity.

BULGARIA: Scale of migrationBULGARIA: Scale of migration

Period - yearPeriod - year NumberNumber

19891989 218 000 (8 981 000)218 000 (8 981 000)

1990-19921990-1992 252 000252 000

1993-20001993-2000 221 000221 000

Total 1989-2000Total 1989-2000 691 000691 000

Total 1989-2005Total 1989-2005 716 000 (7 761 000)716 000 (7 761 000)

Government’s estimates on the number of Government’s estimates on the number of Bulgarian immigrants by country, 2008Bulgarian immigrants by country, 2008

Destination countryDestination country Number of immigrants from Number of immigrants from BulgariaBulgaria

USAUSA Around 200,000 Around 200,000 Spain Over Spain Over 120,000120,000 Greece Around 110,000 Greece Around 110,000 (non-official 200,000)(non-official 200,000) United Kingdom Over United Kingdom Over 60,00060,000 Germany Over 50,000Germany Over 50,000 Italy Around 50,000Italy Around 50,000 Canada Around 45,000Canada Around 45,000 Austria Around 25,000Austria Around 25,000 Total number Around 700,000Total number Around 700,000

Today Bulgaria remains among the Today Bulgaria remains among the mainmain

migrant sending countries in the EU. The migrant sending countries in the EU. The global financial and economic crisis has global financial and economic crisis has severely affected Bulgaria this has led to a severely affected Bulgaria this has led to a sharp increase in numbers of emigrants since sharp increase in numbers of emigrants since 2009 while there is no clear evidence of return 2009 while there is no clear evidence of return migration (as the theoretical rules and past migration (as the theoretical rules and past practices show).practices show).

BulgariaBulgaria: External migration - tot: External migration - total, al, 2007-2012007-2012 (number), NSI2 (number), NSI

Immigrants Immigrants in the in the countrycountry

Emigrants Emigrants from the from the countrycountry

Migration Migration increaseincrease

20072007 1,5611,561 2,9582,958 -1,397-1,397

20082008 1,2361,236 2,1122,112 -876-876

20092009 3,3103,310 19,03919,039 -15,729-15,729

20102010 3,5183,518 27,70827,708 -24,190-24,190

20112011 4,7224,722 9.5179.517 -4,795-4,795

20122012 14,10314,103 16,61516,615 -2,512-2,512

IIt is t is indicativeindicative that parents that parents in in BulgariaBulgaria

strongly strongly encourage their children to migrate. encourage their children to migrate. Nearly 90% of the persons surveyed by the Nearly 90% of the persons surveyed by the NSI in 2001 declared that they encourage their NSI in 2001 declared that they encourage their children to study or work abroad. The children to study or work abroad. The percentage of people urging their children to percentage of people urging their children to resettle abroad is lower than resettle abroad is lower than the proportion of the proportion of those who push them those who push them to study or work abroad, to study or work abroad, but but nevertheless it remains nevertheless it remains very highvery high - - nearly nearly 55%55%..

Possible Possible ppositive ositive eeffects of ffects of mmigration igration in in ssending ending ccountries: ountries:

• • Inflow of remittances benefiting receiving Inflow of remittances benefiting receiving individuals and countries individuals and countries

••Emigration may reduce unemployment in Emigration may reduce unemployment in some sectorssome sectors

• • Investments from diasporas and Investments from diasporas and returnees returnees

• • Improvement of human capital of Improvement of human capital of migrants / returneesmigrants / returnees

Possible Possible nnegativeegative eeffects of ffects of mmigration igration in in ssending ending ccountriesountries: :

• • Loss of highly skilled workers Loss of highly skilled workers followed by reduced growth and followed by reduced growth and productivity productivity

• • Reduced quality and availability of Reduced quality and availability of essential services (e.g. medical and essential services (e.g. medical and social services, education)social services, education)

• • Labour force withdrawal by migrant Labour force withdrawal by migrant family members receiving remittances family members receiving remittances

Possible Possible nnegative eegative effects of ffects of mmigration igration in in ssending ending ccountriesountries::

Progressive ageing and increased Progressive ageing and increased dependency ratiodependency ratio

• • Neglected care for children and elderly Neglected care for children and elderly left behind left behind

• • Lower school performance and Lower school performance and enrolment of children left behind enrolment of children left behind

• • Family disintegration Family disintegration

Basic demographic indicators, 2012Basic demographic indicators, 2012

Population - to 31.12 Population - to 31.12 (thousand)(thousand)

7 284.67 284.6

Share of urban population (%)Share of urban population (%) 72.972.9

Crude birth rate Crude birth rate 9.59.5

Crude death rateCrude death rate 15.015.0

Rate of natural increaseRate of natural increase - 5.5- 5.5

Total fertility rateTotal fertility rate 1.501.50

Age structure of the population in Age structure of the population in Bulgaria, 2011, Total=100,%Bulgaria, 2011, Total=100,%

TotalTotal MaleMale FemaleFemale

Under working Under working age*age*

14.114.1 14.914.9 13.413.4

At working At working age**age**

62.962.9 67.067.0 57.557.5

Over working Over working age***age***

17.217.2 14.714.7 19.619.6

* Under 15 years of age* Under 15 years of age

** For male - from 16 to 62; for female - from 16 to 59** For male - from 16 to 62; for female - from 16 to 59

*** For male - 63 and over; for female - 60 and over.*** For male - 63 and over; for female - 60 and over.

Projection of the population number by age in Projection of the population number by age in Bulgaria, young (0-14) and old people (65 and over), Bulgaria, young (0-14) and old people (65 and over),

2003-20502003-2050

0

200 000

400 000

600 000

800 000

1 000 000

1 200 000

1 400 000

1 600 000

1 800 000

2 000 000

Population (age<15)Population (age>65)

Population structure in Bulgaria by Population structure in Bulgaria by ethnical groups, 2011, Total=100%ethnical groups, 2011, Total=100%

TotalTotal In the townsIn the towns In the villagesIn the villages

BulgariansBulgarians 84.884.8 90.390.3 70.070.0

TurkishTurkish 8.88.8 4.64.6 20.620.6

RomaRoma 4.94.9 3.73.7 8.18.1

OtherOther 0.70.7 0.70.7 0.80.8

Not Not identifiedidentified

0.80.8 0.70.7 1.01.0

Labour market issues Labour market issues Large-scale emigration of mainly young and active Large-scale emigration of mainly young and active

people led to declining number of the labour force people led to declining number of the labour force in Bulgaria.in Bulgaria.

Migration is likely to affect individual sectors of the Migration is likely to affect individual sectors of the economy differently, which economy differently, which contributes to distortion contributes to distortion of the production structure and economic activity in of the production structure and economic activity in the country, and the country, and generategeneratess imbalances imbalances in some in some sectors sectors such as health such as health care care sector, as out-migration sector, as out-migration of doctors and nurses is a key challenge for the of doctors and nurses is a key challenge for the country. country.

In GreeceIn Greece

Bulgarians constitute the second largest Bulgarians constitute the second largest nationality after Albanian migrants.nationality after Albanian migrants. F Femaleemale emigrants predominateemigrants predominate and and migration is most migration is most likelikelly individualy individual. Bulgarians occupy niches in . Bulgarians occupy niches in the labour market, mainly in agriculture and the labour market, mainly in agriculture and tourist services. Seasonal workers coming tourist services. Seasonal workers coming from the region of the Rhodopes Mountain in from the region of the Rhodopes Mountain in Bulgaria cross the border to work in Western Bulgaria cross the border to work in Western Thrace in Greece. Thrace in Greece.

IIn Spainn Spain the emigrants are mostly menthe emigrants are mostly men and and migration is most likemigration is most likellyy

family-based. The first is the husband who arrives and family-based. The first is the husband who arrives and afterwards the relatives join him. afterwards the relatives join him.

In Spain Bulgarians work in various service activities like: In Spain Bulgarians work in various service activities like: hotels and restaurants (15.9%), household/family activities hotels and restaurants (15.9%), household/family activities (14.5%), and other public or personal service activities (14.5%), and other public or personal service activities (13.9%); agriculture (12.2%), construction (11.1%), (13.9%); agriculture (12.2%), construction (11.1%), transport, storage and communication (9.4%). transport, storage and communication (9.4%).

The shares of men and women, working as low skilled The shares of men and women, working as low skilled workers are similar (25.2% and 22.2% respectively). About workers are similar (25.2% and 22.2% respectively). About 23% of the Bulgarian migrants were unemployed in 2011, 23% of the Bulgarian migrants were unemployed in 2011, of which 64% are men and 36% are women. This level of of which 64% are men and 36% are women. This level of unemployment is considerably higher compared to that unemployment is considerably higher compared to that before their departure from Bulgaria. before their departure from Bulgaria.

Level of unemployment Level of unemployment in Bulgaria, in Bulgaria, 15 years and over15 years and over, 1990-2012, %, 1990-2012, %

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Policy responses in BulgariaPolicy responses in Bulgaria

Until recently and even now the Until recently and even now the policy of the Bulgaria’s officials and policy of the Bulgaria’s officials and the public opinion looks like rather the public opinion looks like rather encouraging emigration, i.e. forcing encouraging emigration, i.e. forcing the push factor than attracting people the push factor than attracting people to live and work in their own to live and work in their own country.country.

Policy responses in BulgariaPolicy responses in Bulgaria The successful future of this policy is not in The successful future of this policy is not in

the retention of human capital in Bulgaria, but the retention of human capital in Bulgaria, but in promoting its development in promoting its development via or during via or during migration abroad migration abroad and taking advantage of it in and taking advantage of it in the country. the country.

In spite of the efforts undertaken by the In spite of the efforts undertaken by the national authorities, there are still no specific national authorities, there are still no specific and sufficient services in place for people and sufficient services in place for people who return. who return.

Policy responses in BulgariaPolicy responses in Bulgaria A common feature of the current Bulgarian A common feature of the current Bulgarian

migration policy remains the substantial migration policy remains the substantial number of strategies, action plans, programs, number of strategies, action plans, programs, etc. but they have pure declarative character etc. but they have pure declarative character and the lack of goals set out in them with and the lack of goals set out in them with indicators for the achievement of actual indicators for the achievement of actual results. results.

Thank you for your attention.Thank you for your attention.