6th saes - presentation by vaqar ahmed (sdpi, pakistan) on addressing intra-country growth...

8/22/2019 6th SAES - Presentation by Vaqar Ahmed (SDPI, Pakistan) on Addressing Intra-Country Growth Disparities in South Asia

1/23

Managing Intra-country Growth Disparities in

South Asia


2/23

10 Patterns Governing South Asian Growth


3/23

1. Substantial Population Share of Youth

CountryPopulation

ages 15-64

(% of total)

Population

ages 0-14 (%

of total)Afghanistan 50.3 47.4Bhutan 66.8 28.5Bangladesh 64.7 30.6Nepal 59.4 35.6Pakistan 61.3 34.3India 65.4 29.4Sri Lanka 66.6 25.2Maldives 66.0 29.0Source: World Development Indicators 2013

Population and Youth in South Asia (2012)


4/23

2. Fast Urbanization & Agglomeration

CountryUrban

population

(% of total)

Population in urban

agglomerations of

more than 1 million

(% of totalpopulation)

Afghanistan 23.9 10.7Bhutan 36.3 -Bangladesh 28.9 14.9Nepal 17.3 -Pakistan 36.5 19.2India 31.7 12.7Sri Lanka 15.2 -Maldives 42.2 -

Source: World Development Indicators 2013

Urbanization and Agglomeration in South Asia (2012)


5/23

5

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1961

1964

1967

1970

1973

1976

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

2003

2006

2009

2012

Percentage

South Asia Real GDP Growth

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1961

1964

1967

1970

1973

1976

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

2003

2006

2009

2012

Percentage

Manufacturing, value added (annual % growth)

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

1961

1964

1967

1970

1973

1976

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

2003

2006

2009

2012

Percentage

Agriculture, value added (annual % growth)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1961

1964

1967

1970

1973

1976

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

2003

2006

2009

2012

Percentage

Services, value added (annual % growth)

3. Rising Share of Services Sector



6/23

4. Informal Sector Fueled by Porous Institutions


2.5

3.92.9 3

3.6 3.4 3.4 3

012345

CPIA public sector management and

institutions rating(1=low to 6=high)

1.5

3.53

2.5

3.5 3.5 3.53

0

1

2

3

4

CPIA property rights and rule-based

governance rating 2012(1=low to 6=high)

2

4.5

2.5 2.5

3.53 3 3

0

1

2

3

45

CPIA transparency, accountability, and

corruption in the public sector rating

2012 (1=low to 6=high)

45

19.9

46.6

12.4

47.4

49.4

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Afghanistan

Bhutan

Bangladesh

Pakistan

Sri Lanka

Nepal

%

ofTotalFirms

Firms competing against unregistered

firms 2009


7/23

5. Disconnect with Sustainability

17

31

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

South Asia World

Percentage

Forest area (% of land area)

0.23

0.600.34

0.13

1.66

0.62

3.21

0.95

0

1

1

2

2

3

3

4

(met

rictonspercapita)

CO2 Emissions

2009

1972



8/23

6. Mediocre Quality of Factors of Production


16.8

19.9

17.5

5.6

24

18

0 10 20 30

angladesh

Pakistan

India

Maldives

Sri Lanka

Nepal

(% of population)

Prevalence of undernourishment 2011

72.7

36.7

4259.2

47.2

9.2

10.5

39

0 20 40 60 80

Afghanistan

Bangladesh

BhutanPakistan

India

Maldives

Sri Lanka

Nepal

Infant mortality rate 2011


9/23



16.8

19.9

17.5

5.6

24

18

0 10 20 30

angladesh

Pakistan

India

Maldives

Sri Lanka

Nepal

(% of population)

Prevalence of undernourishment 2011

72.7

36.742

59.2

47.2

9.2

10.5

39

0 20 40 60 80

Afghanistan

BangladeshBhutan

Pakistan

India

Maldives

Sri Lanka

Nepal

Infant mortality rate 2011

3.1

70.2

133.5

26.6

168.7

27.0

0

50

100

150

200

(per1,0

00adults

)

Borrowers from commercial banks 2011

0 1 2 3

Afghanistan

Bhutan

Bangladesh

India

Pakistan

MaldivesSri Lanka

New Firm registrations per 1,000 people


10/23

7. Low Levels of Inclusiveness


GINI

index

Income share held

by highest 10%

Income share

held by lowest

10%

Poverty

headcount at

$2/day (% of

Population)

Afghanistan 27.82 23.21 4.08 -

Bhutan 38.06 29.36 2.8 29.8

Bangladesh 32.12 27.03 3.9 76.5

Pakistan 30.02 26.05 4.36 60.2

India 33.9 28.79 3.69 68.8

Sri Lanka 36.4 30.03 3.39 23.9

Maldives 37.37 28.03 2.71 12.2

Nepal 32.82 26.52 3.63 57.3


11/23

8. Lacking Participatory Approach


2

43.5

2.53

44.5

4

0

1

2

3

4

5

CPIA gender equality rating 2012(1=low to 6=high)

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

Voice and Accountability Index 2011

(1=low to 6=high)


12/23

9. Low Redistribution

12


8.810.0

9.2 9.310.4 10.7

12.413.2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

%o

fGDP

Tax Revenue in South Asia 2011

-0.9

-1.3

0.4

-5.1

-3.3

-11.7

-7.2

-1.2

-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

%o

fGDP

Average Budget Deficit 2006-10

7.9 8.3

7.1

12.1

8.8 8.810.2

9.3

0

5

10

15

%G

row

th

Average Consumer Price Index 2006-12

3.5 3.5

3

3.5 3.54

32.5

0

1

2

3

4

5

CPIA quality of budgetary management 2012

Rating (1=low to 6=high)


13/23

10. Trade under Inefficient Infrastructure


Efficiency ofcustoms clearance

processQuality of trade and

transport-related

infrastructureCompetence and

quality of logistics

servicesAfghanistan 2.33 2.0 2.16Bhutan 2.29 2.3 2.42Bangladesh 2.33 2.49 2.44India 2.77 2.87 3.14Pakistan 2.85 2.69 2.77Maldives 2.24 2.47 2.68Sri Lanka 2.58 2.5 2.8Nepal 2.20 1.87 2.12


14/23

Summarizing Underlying Growth Patterns

14

1. Substantial Population Share of Youth2. Fast Urbanization and Agglomeration

3. Rising Share of Services

4. Informal Sector Fueled by Porous Institutions5. Disconnect with Sustainability


7. Low levels of Inclusiveness8. Lack of Participatory Approach

9. Low Redistribution

10. Trade under Inefficient Infrastructure


15/23

15

What Next for South Asia?


16/23

16

Emerging Mega Trends


17/23

1. Empowerment

17

Emerging

examples of

individual

empowerment

Rising Middle

Class

Independent

Media

Access to ICTPro-poor

legislation

Right toInformation

Act


18/23

2. Demography

18

Demographic

Change

Urban

Class

IncreasedMobility

across

Sectors

Rising

Internal

Migration

Knowledge

Spillovers

Diaspora


19/23

3. New Power Centers

19

Power

Centers

Civil society

SuperiorJudiciary

MediaParliamenta

ry Forces

CorporateSector


20/23

20

Game Changers


21/23

21

GameChangers

ViolentConflicts

Human &

Man-madedisasters

Corruption&

Transparenc

y

Failure to

Invest inHuman

Capital


22/23

Lets Rethink South Asian Inclusive Growth

22

1. How will these game changers impact the megatrends?

2. Can rural development be separated fromtraditional structural transformation?

3. How urban spaces can become hubs of domesticcommerce?

4. Can we reinvent youth engagement?


23/23

www sdpi org www sdpi tv 23

Thank You
http://www.sdpi.org/http://www.sdpi.tv/http://www.sdpi.tv/http://www.sdpi.org/

6th saes - presentation by vaqar ahmed (sdpi, pakistan) on addressing intra-country growth...

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