6th session of the unece ’s group oapec of experts on gas...in mid2017, qp and shell - formed lng...
TRANSCRIPT
OAPEC
Current and Future Trends in Sustainable Production of Gas and LNG in the Arab Countries
Gas Industries ExpertOrganization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC)
6th Session of the UNECE’s Group of Experts on Gas
6th Session of the UNECE’s Group of Experts on Gas
United Nations, Geneva, Switzerland 25-27 March 20192
Agenda
Production Boom of Gas and LNG in the Arab Countries
Unlocking the Potential of Gas Resources to Achieve Sustainable Production
Current and Future Projects for long term LNG Sustainability
1
2
3
2
6th Session of the UNECE’s Group of Experts on Gas
United Nations, Geneva, Switzerland 25-27 March 2019
N.America7%
C& S. America4%
Europe/Euroasia32%
Asia Pacific8%
Other Middle East17%
Arab Countries27%
Sub-Saharan Africa
5%
3
Proven Gas Reserves in the Arab Countries
27%Share of proven gas reserves in the Arab countries
1
Total gas reserves : 201 tcm
Source: OAPEC, Oil & Gas Journal 2018.! Irregular distribution of proven gas reserves in
the Arab region
70%Of proven gas reserves are located in Qatar,
KSA and UAE
Distribution of Proven Gas Reserves per Country , 2018
Distribution of the World’s Total Proven Gas Reserves, 2018
44%
MENA region
6th Session of the UNECE’s Group of Experts on Gas
United Nations, Geneva, Switzerland 25-27 March 20194
Gas Production Boom.. Who Led the Boom?1
Arab Region, 318%
World , 83%
N.America, 48%
CIS, 10% Europe, 5%
Asia Pacific, 315%
-200%
-100%
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
1990 2002 2006 2010 2014 2016 2017
index"1990=0 or Base Year
Gas Production Total Growth Per Region (Since 1990)Total Growth %
ANNUAL GROWTH RATE TOTAL GAS PRODUCTION IN 2017
585 bcm
This accounts for 16% of the global gas production
Arab region was a major contributor to the global gas production boom
Adoption of policies to unlock the potential of large conventional gas resources
Increasing awareness of the role of gas in achieving sustainable development
Qatar led the production growth in the region, accounting for 29% of the total production in 2017
Qatar
KSA
Algeria
UAEEgyptOman
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2016 2017
29%
20%
17%
11%9%5%
10%
Gas Production Growth in the Arab Countries Production in bcm
6th Session of the UNECE’s Group of Experts on Gas
United Nations, Geneva, Switzerland 25-27 March 20195
Development of LNG infrastructure and exports1
LNG plant in full operationStopped LNG plant
LNG plant in partial operationGas Export Pipeline
AlgeriaEgyptLibya
UAE
Spain
Italy
Iran Syria
Jordan
Turkey
Iraq
A number of Arab countries, led by Qatar, Algeria , invested heavily in Gas/LNG export projects to create another source of revenues beside oil (SDG-8)
The contribution of Oil & Gas sector to the economic growth was large and created tens of thousands of direct and indirect job opportunities (SDG-8)
0306090
120150180210240270300330
2002 2006 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018Qatar Algeria Oman UAEEgypt Yemen Australia USAIndonesia Malaysia T&T NigeriaOthers Libya % of Arab Countries
Development of LNG Exports, MT
Arab countries played a global effective role over decades to provide an efficient, affordable and cleaner energy source to different regions, and thus supported endeavors toward (SDG-7)
Source: OAPEC, GIIGNL, LNG edge
6th Session of the UNECE’s Group of Experts on Gas
United Nations, Geneva, Switzerland 25-27 March 20196
Unlocking the Potential of Gas Resources to Achieve Sustainable Gas Production2
This means, there is still a room for investment in the upstream sector to sustain/boost gas production levels.
The total growth rate of proven gas reserves was the highest in the Arab region (reached around 120%)
However, the proportionality of Gas Reserves to Gas Production growth is lower compared to other regions
Source: OAPEC
Development of Proven Gas Reserves and Marketed Production Per Region
6th Session of the UNECE’s Group of Experts on Gas
United Nations, Geneva, Switzerland 25-27 March 20197
Unlocking the Potential of Gas Resources… Why it is needed?2
44%
53.1%
1.3%
2%
1990
51%48%
1%
1%
2017
Primary Energy Mix in Arab Region
Gas has become the fuel of choice in many sectors and has taken market share away from oil
Recently, the growth rate of gas consumption was higher than that of the production.
Consequently , net gas exports declined to meet local the demand in Arab gas exporters
Source: OAPEC
6th Session of the UNECE’s Group of Experts on Gas
United Nations, Geneva, Switzerland 25-27 March 20198
Unlocking the Potential of Gas Resource: key actions/measures..2
Oil, 38%
Gas, 31%
Power, 27%
Chemicals, 4%
Committed MENA investments by Sector over 2018-2022
Total committed investments in the whole energy sector $ 345 B
Total committed investments in the gas sector only$ 109 B
Source: APICORP
Opening new blocks (offshore & onshore ) for exploration activities (Egypt, UAE,..)
Tapping into Gas-Cap reservoirs & technically challenging gas fields (UAE, Kuwait)
Lifting self-imposed moratorium on mega gas fields development (North field in Qatar)
Expediting the development of recent gas finds to boost production levels (Egypt)
Tapping into unconventional gas reservoirs (Saudi Arabia, Oman)
6th Session of the UNECE’s Group of Experts on Gas
United Nations, Geneva, Switzerland 25-27 March 20199
Oversupplied Supply-tight
Globally, LNG demand will continue to grow to reach around 480 MT in 2030(i.e. 50% total increase compared to 2017)
Global LNG Supply-Demand Outlook through 2016-2030
Source: OAPEC
Current and Future Projects for long term LNG Sustainability3
The expected gap between demand/supply will evolve by 2023 and will continue to widen which involves adding new capacities.
Source: OAPEC
Global LNG Supply-Demand Gap 2016-2030
6th Session of the UNECE’s Group of Experts on Gas
United Nations, Geneva, Switzerland 25-27 March 201910
Current and Future Projects for long term LNG Sustainability3
Ongoing LNG projects in the Arab Countries over the period 2018-2023
Qatar.. New Mega Trains
Qatar will boost its LNG capacity from 77 to110 MTPA by 2023.
Oman.. DebottleneckingDe-bottlenecking of existing facilities willadd 1.5 MTPA by 2021.
Mauritania..New FrontierThe Tortue/Ahmeyim Project will havetwo FLNG with a total capacity of 5MTPA. First FLNG to start by 2022
Egypt.. East Med Hub
Egypt has two LNG plants can be used forre-export of gas in the East Med. region.
Qatar EgyptOman UAE Yemen
Source: OAPEC
LNG plants Working Capacity* in 2018
Algeria
* Actual Output/Nominal capacity
6th Session of the UNECE’s Group of Experts on Gas
United Nations, Geneva, Switzerland 25-27 March 201911
LNG capacity in the Arab region will be boosted by around one-third in total by 2023 to increase LNG supplies to different markets.
138 138
39
0
30
60
90
120
150
180
210
2018 2023
MTP
A
New Existing
Outlook of LNG Capacity in the Arab Countries
177
MTP
ASource: OAPEC
3950
1.221.6 21.9 18.2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2016 2018 2020 2025 2030 2040
MT
Outlook of LNG Demand in the European Markets
Europe’s dependence on gas/LNG imports will continue to grow due to continuing decline of its indigenous gas production
Europe’s LNG imports in 2018 increased to 50 million tonnes, and forecasted to reach >70 million tonnes by 2025
Source: Cedigaz
Current and Future Projects for long term LNG Sustainability3
6th Session of the UNECE’s Group of Experts on Gas
United Nations, Geneva, Switzerland 25-27 March 201912
Sufur Content in Marine Fuels and limits (ppm)
35,000
24,500
5,000
1,000
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000
Current IMO Global Limit
Average Marine H.F.O
2020 IMO Global Limit
ECA Limit
Road Diesel Limit
In force since Jan 2015
Data Source: IMO
Middle East (UAE, Egypt,..)
East Asia (Japan, China, Singapore,..)
North Sea (ECA)
Baltic Sea (ECA)
Coast of North America (ECA)
*ECA: Emissions Control Area(North sea, Baltic sea, English Channel
In mid-2017, QP and Shell Formed LNG Marine bunkering venture to develop bunkering infrastructure at strategic shipping locations across the globe.
In Mid 2018, Oman inked MOU with Total to develop LNG bunkering hub in Oman
In late 2018, UAE’s major Adnoc announced plans to develop LNG bunkering facilities with Japan’s Inpex
Current and Future Projects for long term LNG Sustainability3
6th Session of the UNECE’s Group of Experts on Gas
United Nations, Geneva, Switzerland 25-27 March 201913
Key Messages
“In the Arab region, gas is a key pillar of the energy system and a major contributor to attain the sustainable development goals (in particular: SDG-7 & SDG-8)
“Arab region will continue to provide an efficient, affordable, reliable and cleaner energy source and support other regions’ endeavor achieve the sustainable energy objectives”.
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6th Session of the UNECE’s Group of Experts on Gas
United Nations, Geneva, Switzerland 25-27 March 201914
Thank You
Eng.Wael A.MoatiGas Industries Expert,
OAPEC