7 september daily technical trader

2

Click here to load reader

Upload: qnb-group

Post on 11-Nov-2014

245 views

Category:

Economy & Finance


0 download

DESCRIPTION

 

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: 7 September Daily technical trader

Page 1 of 2

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER

QE Index: Short-Term – Uptrend

The QE Index continued its winning streak for the fifth session in a

row, recording a new all-time high of 14,039.02, but later trimmed its

gains to close at 13,985.98. The index remained in an upbeat mode

throughout the day and surpassed both the 13,850.0 and 13,950.0

levels, as the bulls ruled the day yet again. With the RSI showing

strength, the index could continue its bullish momentum and tag new

highs. Conversely, 13,950.0 may provide immediate support.

Al Khalij Commercial Bank: Short-Term – Bounce Back

KCBK witnessed a gap-up opening and breached its resistances of

QR22.35 and QR22.49, after consolidating below them over the past

few weeks on the back of increased participation. Moreover, the stock

developed a bullish candlestick formation on daily charts, indicating

that it may rally further. We believe the stock may march toward

QR22.85, if it keeps it head above QR22.49 on a closing basis.

Meanwhile, the RSI has rejected the mid-line and is moving up.

Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Neutral

The QERI Index ended the session in the green and advanced

0.40%, after witnessing profit-booking over the past two days.

Moreover, the index cleared its resistance of 4,708.0 and managed to

close above it, which is a positive sign. However, traders are advised

to wait and watch whether there is any further follow-through to

Thursday’s gains. Meanwhile, the index may proceed toward 4,770.0,

if it sustains above 4,708.0, or else it may retreat.

Nakilat: Short-Term – Rebound

QGTS gained 1.70% and rebounded strongly, breaching its

resistances of the ascending pennant, QR24.45 and the 21-day

moving average in a single swoop. We believe this strong breach of

resistances has bullish implications and the stock may rise further to

test QR24.90, followed by QR25.29. However, a retreat below the 21-

day moving average may drag the stock down. Meanwhile, the RSI in

the buy zone supports this positive sentiment.

Qatar International Islamic Bank: Short-Term – Bounce Back

QIIK cleared the ascending triangle resistance of QR90.50 after

witnessing correction over the past few days. Notably, volumes were

also large on the rise, indicating optimism among traders. Further, the

RSI is moving up in a bullish manner, while the MACD line is

diverging away from the signal line toward the upside. Thus traders

may consider buying the stock at the current level for a near-term

target of QR93.50 with a strict stop loss of QR90.50.

Gulf International Services: Short-Term – Upmove

GISS advanced further on Thursday and surpassed its resistance of

QR121.0 on the back of large volumes. Moreover, the RSI has shown

a bullish divergence, indicating strength in the current upmove. We

believe based on the recent price action, the stock may continue to

rise further and test QR122.50. Any move above this level may spark

additional buying interest and extend its gains toward QR124.10.

However, a dip below QR121.0 may result in a pullback.

Page 2: 7 September Daily technical trader

Contacts

Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst Manager - HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Doha, Qatar

DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report.

COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 2 of 2

*These stocks are today’s suggested ideas

Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55-day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT. Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels. Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and

long-term trends. Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend. Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices. Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend. Definitions:

1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period. 2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be

considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days. 3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day

exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa.

Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Support Resistance

Short Term Long Term First Second First Second

Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 13,985.98 UP UP 13,950.00 13,909.87 14,000.00 14,100.00

Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 4,718.21 UP UP 4,707.59 4,685.00 4,770.31 4,811.43

Banks and Financial Services Banks and Financial Services

Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD) 56.30 UP UP 55.80 54.00 57.30 58.20

Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD) 73.20 UP UP 72.50 71.80 75.00 76.50

Doha Bank (DHBK QD) 62.30 UP UP 62.00 61.00 63.30 64.50

Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD) 118.00 UP UP 117.40 115.00 120.00 122.00

Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD)* 90.70 UP UP 90.50 89.00 93.50 95.00

Qatar Insurance (QATI QD) 100.00 UP UP 98.00 97.00 100.00 101.00

Al Khalij Commercial Bank (KCBK QD)* 22.50 UP UP 22.49 22.35 22.85 23.23

Consumer Goods and Services Consumer Goods and Services

Medicare Group (MCGS QD) 131.00 UP UP 128.80 126.50 131.40 135.20

Al Meera Consumer Goods Co. (MERS QD) 184.80 DOWN UP 183.00 181.40 185.00 187.80

Industrials Industrials

Industries Qatar (IQCD QD) 192.00 UP UP 191.00 190.00 192.10 193.50

Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD) 187.90 UP UP 186.00 184.00 188.00 190.00

Gulf International Services (GISS QD)* 121.90 UP UP 121.00 118.10 122.50 124.10

Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD) 58.00 DOWN UP 56.20 54.00 58.00 59.00

Real Estate Real Estate

Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD) 40.50 DOWN FLAT 40.10 39.70 41.00 41.80

United Development Co. (UDCD QD) 29.00 DOWN UP 28.55 28.00 29.05 29.50

Telecom Telecom

Ooredoo (ORDS QD) 132.00 UP UP 129.70 126.00 132.00 134.00

Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD) 21.34 UP UP 21.00 20.78 21.40 21.97

Transportation Transportation

Nakilat (QGTS QD)* 24.55 UP UP 24.45 24.12 24.90 25.29

Milaha (QNNS QD) 94.00 DOWN FLAT 93.00 91.30 95.10 96.50