78 caffrey history of wg part 2

8/13/2019 78 Caffrey History of WG Part 2

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The History of Wargaming

Matthew B. Caffrey Jr.AFRL Wargaming

Plans & Programs DirectorateAir Force Research Laboratory

17 November 2010


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World War II

Germany

Mannstein makes his case

Barbarossa - an accurate mistake

Victory at Normandy, twice


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World War II

Japan

The Total War Research Institute


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World War II


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World War II

Both attacks on Pearl Harbor

Japan



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World War II


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World War II

Both battles of Midway

Why did Japan keep on fighting

Japan


Both attacks on Pearl Harbor


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World War II

UK

Both extremes


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World War II

UK

Both extremes US

US Army Ground Forces - unknown

US Army Air Forces - sorely missedUSMC eerie success, then..

Navy success - but ...


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World War II

The war with Japan had been [enacted] in the game room

here by so many people in so many different ways thatnothing that happened during the war was a surprise,

absolutely nothing except the Kamikaze.

Fleet Admiral Chester Nimitz


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Eclipse

Decline in the

study of war

at the war colleges

Rise of

deterrence &

the efficient DoD

Korea seen as

an aberration


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The onset of the Cold War

Assumed credibility of computers

Prestige of Operations Research

Reaction against the management mindset

of Vietnam

Why was Wargaming Reborn?

The obsolescence of war had been greatly

exaggerated


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1950s Analysis models

USNaval - NEWS from the Naval War Col

USMC - Landing Force War Game series

Army - Aggressors, at least a start

Air Force - RAND & war gaming

International Soviet historical rigor

UK OR


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1960s Pentagon Games

US

Joint - Wargaming at the heartNaval - NWC goes to WARS

Army - making the case for Air Mobile

Air Force - looses Skybolt, gains PME WG

International - UK & Canadian OR


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Wargaming - The Vietnam War

US

Wargame predicted

stalemate -- NOT

continued to conflict resolution

Limited in theater use

Wargame predicted victory

North Vietnam

- Soviet method of wargaming

- Partial explanation of

lack of radio use,

style of

fighting


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US

Naval - Top Gun, to CRP, to Global

Army - Tech solution to a people problem?

Air Force - Red Flag!

1970s Education and Training


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US

Naval - The golden age of Global

Army - From III Corps to NTCAir Force - Air Force Wargaming Center

USMC The right wargame for each need

JointCENTCOM takes the lead

DARPAs modest innovation

1980s O-Plan Development


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Wargaming - The Gulf War

US

Iraqi

- Soviet method for ground forces

- a reason for the halt

- US software for air

forces - a reason

they did not

fight

Exercise in the Desert - Patriots accelerated

Internal Look 90 - a reason we moved so fast?

Wargamers at war - the road not taken

Wargames in the field

The US training edge


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Naval Global transformation event

Army Initiates Title 10 wargame

Air Force Initiates Title 10 wargame

USMC Starts then stops Title 10 WG

Joint

Service Wargames talk to each otherFewer, more Joint engines JSIMS,JWARS

1990s US - Jointness


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1990s Globally - Expanded Use

Congressional LiaisonProcurement DecisionsTactics DevelopmentForce TradeoffsGrowing use of virtual wargamingInternational Study US


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DoD Wargaming at a Crossroads

More money going to wargaming

Relativelyless

expensive

Noenviron-

mental

impact

Securefrom

overhead

observation

Exploitsmore

computing

power for

less money

Credibilitywith

Congress

Credibilitywith

Congress


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DoD Wargaming at a Crossroads

More money going to wargaming

More doubts than any time since the late 40s

- High Desert Storm Casualty Predictions

- RANDs Base of Sand Paper

- HQ USAF concerns- Irrelevance in armed conflict with Serbia

- Competition from commercial wargames


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DOD / CommercialWar Games 1950 - 1990

Analysis Training PME Prof Dev Recreation

[Bottom Up]

Operational

ResearchModels

History Based

Wargames

[Top Down]


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The Rise of Commercial Wargaming

More Accessible Wargames

- 1950s Charles Roberts- 1960s Eric Dott & Avalon Hill

- 1970s James Dunnigan & the S&T Staff +

- 1980s Chris Crawford & Gary Grigsby

- 1990s 25 Billion dollar global industry


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The Rise of Commercial Wargaming

More Citizens Playing Wargames

- 1950s Thousands- 1960s Tens of Thousands

- 1970s Hundreds of Thousands

- 1980s Millions

- 1990s Tens of Millions


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Commercial/DOD Integration

Analysis Training PME Prof Dev Recreation

[Bottom Up]Operational Reasearch Models

History Based Wargames[Top Down]


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2000+

Old bothersome problems become major needs

OEF to fast to wargame

OIF

This is not the enemy we wargamedagainst. Lt Gen Wallace, V Corps CC

How do you wargame Phase IV?

UNCLASSIFIED // FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY


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CSAF, Gen Fogleman, 1995: We must put together our own Title 10 wargame to

highlight modern air and space power to the joint warfighting community

Showcase airpower; but conduct on a level playing field

Recruit from combatant commands must be truly purple

Initially two Title 10 Wargames conducted each year

Global Engagement (now Unified Engagement) set in mid term future

Air Force Futures Capabilities Game set in far term future

Until 2000 games conducted at Air University, Maxwell AFB

2000-2004 in Wash DC area; much inside beltway participation

After 2004, UE 04, CSAF, Gen Jumper directed Take the wargame to the

warfightergo to the Pacific first

FG 05 (and ever other year there after) held at Air University, Maxwell AFB

UE 06 held in PACAF in Nov 2006highly praised by Admiral Fallon, Gen Hesterand joint GO/FO participants

UE 08 held in USAFE in Nov 2008

UE 10 held in PACAF in Nov 2010

HAF Wargaming History

UNCLASSIFIED // FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

USAF AFMC AFRL


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USAF > AFMC > AFRL

Enhancing Accuracy of Wargames

2000 Technology Seminar Game 2000 held, develop/vet Blueconcepts for Futures Game

2004 Unified Engagement 04 better directed energy

2006 Red Tech Workshop (Discovery Game) initiated

2007 Futures Game returned to alternate forces

Blue Technology Workshop ( AFTEG) initiated

AFRL Wargame Course initiated

2008 AFRL Wargame initiated

2009 Futures Game initiates S&T Cell 2010 Unified Engagement 10

Start on improving ACS accuracy

Better cyber depiction

Some S&T Input


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History

The Art of Wargaming, Peter Perla, 1990

http//www.airpower.maxwell.af.mil/airchronicles/cc/caffrey.html

News

http://www.msrr.dmso.mil/

http://afmsrr.afams.af.mil/

http://www-leav.army.mil/nsc/warsim/index.htm

To Learn More


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To Learn More

Go to: WWW.AU.MIL

Pull Down: Aerospace Power

Chronicles

Go to Fall 00 Issue


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Questions?

Comments?

Discussion?

78 caffrey history of wg part 2

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