7840-pakistan i-prps - ppt lessons learnts
TRANSCRIPT
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Pakistans I -PRSP
in the Light of Evaluative Experienceof the World Banks Poverty ReductionStrategy and the Global Experience with
the PRSPs so far
Sohail Jehangir MalikChairman
Innovative Development Strategies (Pvt.)
Ltd
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Global Poverty Reduction during
the 1990sThe World Banks three pronged poverty
reduction str ategy of 1990
Growth social sector development and safety nets
had mixed resultsIn terms of the money-metric measure of
poverty
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By the end of the 1990s Global poverty rateswere down but progress was extremelyuneven
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Take away China and there wasactually a worsening of poverty
headcount numbers over the1990s!!!
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Reduction in child malnutrition has been slow prospect of reaching the targets of Millennium
Development Goal is in doubt
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120 million primary-school-age children were not in school in 1999.53 % of them girls.74 % living in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa.
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Ratio of girls to boys in primary and
secondary school (%)
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Infant mortality rates
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Pakistan - by the end of the 1990s
Not only was the poverty
situation alarming! but prospects for its reduction
were also bleak
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y = 38.68e -0.0316x
1015
20
25
30
3540
1 9 9 0
1 9 9 2
1 9 9 4
1 9 9 6
1 9 9 8
2 0 0 0
2 0 0 2
2 0 0 4
2 0 0 6
2 0 0 8
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 2
2 0 1 4
Expon. (Actual)
Expon. (Required)
Headcount Of Poor - Pakistan
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Pakistan: Prevalence of Child malnutrition (nuchildren under five)
38.240.2
y = 40.612e-0.0102x
y = 43.145e-0.029x
0
20
40
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Expon. (Past Trend)Expon. (Required Trend)
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Pakistan: Ratio of Literate Females to Mal
58.949 53.757.9 y = 48.094e0.0185x
y = 44.956e0.0294x
40
55
70
85
100 Expon. (Past Trend)
Expon. (Required trend)
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Pakistan: Under Five Mortality Rate
110.3
138118
112 y = 138.95e-0.022x
y = 160.27e-0.0451x
30
60
90
120
150
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Expon. (Past trend)
Expon. (Required trend)
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Details of the Poverty Trends in PakistanProvince FY93 FY94 FY97 FY99
Urban Areas 20.7 16.3 16.1 22.4Punjab 22.0 18.1 16.9 25.5Sindh 17.3 11.8 12.0 16.1NWFP 25.3 26.9 27.2 29.2
Balochistan 31.8 16.8 23.0 24.3Rural Areas 28.9 34.7 30.7 36.3Punjab 26.5 33.9 28.3 36.0Sindh 29.5 31.8 19.6 34.7NWFP 37.0 40.0 43.4 44.9Balochistan 28.1 37.9 42.5 22.5
Overall 26.6 29.3 26.3 32.2Punjab 25.2 29.5 25.0 33.0Sindh 24.1 22.6 15.7 26.6NWFP 35.5 38.1 41.2 42.6Balochistan 28.6 35.5 38.4 22.8
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Poverty Trends across Provinces
0.0
5.010.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
FY93 FY94 FY97 FY99
Pakistan Punjab Sindh NWFP Balochistan
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Poverty Diagnostics
Poverty is strongly related to lack of basic needs Poor have low access to health related
infrastructure Poor communities have lower access to health
facilities and immunization coverage Poor have higher dependency ratios More than 1/3 rd of the poor households are headed
by aged persons
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Poverty Diagnostics (contd.)
27% poor versus 52% non-poor households
are headed by literate persons Poverty is higher when head of the
household is unskilled agricultural worker
Cultivable land owned by poor versus thenon-poor is 0.27 and 0.84 acres per capita,respectively
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Investment as % of GDP
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Consolidated Public Expenditures(as % of GDP)
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The Poverty Reduction Strategy
PapersBorn in late 1999 out of the pressures from: HIPC
The lessons from the experience with theWorld Banks 1990 strategy of PovertyReduction
The Recommendations of the MeltzerCommission Report to the AmericanCongress
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The PRSPs are an essentialrequirement for debt relief under
the HIPC initiative and good business plan for concessional
assistance under IDA
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The PRSP requires: A long term domestically owned holistic Vision
with a strategic articulation of the perceptions of poverty and how to address these encapsulated in
a three year plan Clear and Verifiable time-bound M& E Indicators A participatory consultative process at the grass
roots level
Coordination and Efficiency through a MediumTerm Budgetary Framework
PRSPs ensure IFI partnership as well as means tomonitor domestic performance
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Lessons from the WB Experience -Policies A strategy that emphasizes the mutually
reinforcing benefits of growth and human resourcedevelopment is relevant.
Most recent empirical evidence however, points tothe importance of contingent factors such as: property rights, a capable bureaucracy and
the distribution of assets in mediating the povertyreducing effects of growth, and to the negative effectsof corruption on both inequality and poverty.
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Lessons from the WB Experience -Policies Human development has proven to be vital for
long-term growth. However: Need to improve the interaction between policies that
sustain long-term growth,
Need to improve the distribution as well as the stock ofhuman capital,
Need to curb corruption and enhance the social and physical capital of the poor, that are likely to make thereal difference.
These are all elements making up the newComprehensive Development Frameworkunderpinning the PRSP process.
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Lessons from Country Studies Growth that is based on rural development has a notable
impact on overall levels of poverty. Lack of social consensus and government commitment can be a major obstacle to reform, while weak institutionalcapacity can hinder prospects for implementation of aneffective country poverty strategy.
Slow private sector development, weak governance andhigh aid-dependence slow down the prospects for growthand reduce the long-term sustainability of growth andimprovements in the social sectors.
There is a need to monitor not only the level, but also thedepth and severity of poverty. Safety nets are a necessarycondition for ensuring that the poor are protected. All threeelements of the 1990 strategy are important for sustained
poverty reduction.
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Lessons from Project Experience
Reaching the poor and making tangibledifferences to their well-being depends on a good project design macro institutional environment specific local institutional capabilities cultural acceptability of different types of interventions.
Tightly targeted projects with good
communication, supervision and in-builtflexibility can work, even in difficultinstitutional/policy environments.
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Lessons from Project Experience(contd.)
There is no reason to expect that the benefitsfrom social funds and decentralization willalways be pro-poor.
There is a need to better understand thesynergy between key areas of public and
private actions to better address the priority
needs of the chronically poor.
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Core Principles of Pakistans
I-PRSP Engendering growth Governance reforms Creating income generating opportunities Improving human development Reducing vulnerability to shocks
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EconomicReforms
Physical AsseetCreation for
The Poor
Social AssetCreation for
The Poor
Social SafetyNet Governance
PrivateDevelopment
PublicExpenditure
Rationalization
Tax Reforms
KhushalPakistan
Programme
State LandAllocation
Zakat & UshrRehabilitationGrant
Micro Credit
PPAFKhushali Bank
Poverty &Environment
Social sectorProgramme
EducationHealthPopulationWelfareWater SupplyNutrition
Gender RelatedReforms
Poor Women &Children
Social WelfareProgramme
Zakat, Ushr &Baitul Mal
Systems
Food SupportProgramme
The SocialProtectionSystem
Pension PlanSocial Security
System
IndigenousPhilanthropy
JudiciaryReforms
PublicSectorEfficiency
CorporateGovernance
Rule of LawFor Society
RapidEconomic
Growth
Utilization ofAssets
LabourMarket
Mobility
Extreme PovertyElimination
Creation ofEmployment
Income of Poor
Poverty Reduction Strategy 2001 2004.
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Revenue and Expenditures
(1998-99 to 2000-01 actual)
(2001-02 to 2003-04 IPRSP)
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04
P e r c e n t
Budget balance Total revenue Development expenditure Total expenditure IPRSP expenditures
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Trends in Crucial Growth Rates(1998-99 to 2000-01 actual)(2001-02 to 2003-04 IPRSP)
4.2
3.9
2.7
3.7
5.05.2
5.7
3.6
4.4
5.0 5.0 5.0
2.69 2.69
2.2 2.11.9 1.8
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04
p e r c e n
t
Real GDP growth Inflation Population growth
T d i P
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Trends in Poverty(1992-93 to 1998-99 actual)(2000-01 to 2003-04 IPRSP)
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
1992-93 1993-94 1996-97 1998-99 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04
P e r c e n
t
Overall Urban Areas Rural Areas
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I-PRSP Challenges
extracting Pakistan from a debt trap,
accelerating growth, improving social indicators, and restoring the credibility and integrity of public
institutions.
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Major I-PRSP Challenge
Macroeconomic stabilization: Increasing tax revenue in order to provide more
fiscal space for poverty reduction initiatives
overcoming adverse debt dynamics. Maintaining a prudent monetary policy in order
to keep inflation low
Increasing export growth to improve theexternal debt situation.
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Major I-PRSP Challenge
Growth promotion: Acceleration of reforms in the areas of:
Privatization Irrigation and drainage Energy tariff rationalization Karachi electric Supply Company Gas pricing Civil service reforms Tax administration Agriculture support services
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The Bigger Challenge!
Getting growth going and ensur ing that the
Growth is pro-poor and translates into fasterpover ty reduction
tackling the distr ibution issue
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Success of the I-PRSP hinges on: Governance reforms and devolution: Reducing incentives for corruption
Governance reform agenda that includes reforms offundamental institutions
Central bank Tax authority CBR Police Judicial system Civil service Auditor general and controller general of accounts
Reforms in the public financial management systemsand institutions
Establishment of an effective anti-corruption agency.
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And the crucial assumption forPoverty Reduction under the
I-PRSP
The success of the devolution plan inimproving access to education, healthand other public services
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Major Strength of the I-PRSP
Confirms the governments commitment tosustaining and expanding targeted
interventions that focus on disadvantagedsections of society, especially in rural areas
Highlights the key role of agricultural sector
in poverty reduction
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Weaknesses
I-PRSP does not question whether current policies of poverty reduction are appropriateor adequate, especially in the rural strategy.
It does not present an analysis ofalternatives
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Weaknesses
The I-PRSP does not: recognize the fact that greater tariff
adjustments will be required in the energysector in future and that tariff increases mustbe accompanied by improvements inoperational performance.
acknowledge that privatization will taketime, and that in the interim pressinginvestments will be needed.
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Weaknesses
I-PRSP does not fully exploit the potentialrole of the private sector in bringingeducation to the underprivileged.
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Challenges and Risks Outlined
by the I-PRSP Challenges:
To raise financing, and
To improve governance and institutional capacity Risks
Political opposition to reforms, Lack of continuity,
Insufficient institutional capacity, and Exogenous shocks
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Common weaknesses in all
PRSPs Inadequate information on the determinants of
pro-poor growth
Inadequate linkages between economic growth,macroeconomic and structural policies and
poverty reduction
Inadequate linkages between public expenditures, poverty outcomes, and costing.
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Comparison of I-PRSPs and
PRSPs showssignificant differences between the full and
interim PRSPs in terms of :
data availability quality of data analysis and policy
formulation
development of medium term budgeting procedures participatory processes
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Pakistan has committed todeveloping a FULL PRSP by
March 2003This requires:
A wide ranging consultative process to ensure thatthere is consensus on the long-term vision,ownership and sustainability of the program
The long term vision requires consensus on the perception of poverty and on the strategic prioritization of interventions at all levels
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The full PRSP requires:
Strategic coordination of resources -including aid - over the medium term
Development of detailed Provincial andsub-provincial level PRSPs
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The full PRSP requires: Expenditure tracking
To monitor spending in important sub-sectors and programs
To track expenditure data by economic classification
Monitoring of intermediate and outcomeindicators
Adequate implementation of monitoring system.
And the building of technical capacity (at provincial and district level)
Consensus on a nationally acceptable poverty line
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The full PRSP requires:
Systematic data collection and analyses of poverty dynamics and vulnerability that is
domestically owned Analyses informing of possible adverse impacts
of some key macro/structural policies on the poor and other socio-economic groups
Assessment of key poverty programs likeKhushal Pakistan and Katchi Abadi etc.
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The time is extremely short the
challenges are enormous!