8 unprecedented extremes indicate a stock market bubble in trouble

Download 8 Unprecedented Extremes Indicate a Stock Market Bubble in Trouble

Post on 09-Aug-2015



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  1. 1. Indicate a Stock Market Bubble in Trouble Unprecedented Extremes
  2. 2. It is amazing to read assertions from the Fed and others that the stock market is nowhere near being in a bubble. Several aspects of the financial environment are actually so extreme as to be unprecedented. Some indicate a bubble, and others a bubble in trouble. June 19, 2015 | The Elliott Wave Theorist Robert Prechter President, Elliott Wave International
  3. 3. Record debt in U.S. dollars Total dollar-denominated debt peaked at $52.7 trillion in early 2009. At the end of Q1 2015, it stands at $59 trillion, an unprecedented amount. LEARN MORE u
  4. 4. Margin Debt All-Time Highs Never have more trading-account owners owed so much money, and never have they had such a low level of available funds from which further to draw. LEARN MORE v
  5. 5. Stocks Are Overvalued (based on dividend yields) The Dow's annual dividend payout has been less than 3% for 235 out of the past 246 months. Prior to the bull market that started in 1982, the longest duration under 3% was just one month, at the top in 1929. LEARN MORE w
  6. 6. Fund Managers Are Maxed Out The percentage of cash in mutual funds has been below 4% for all but one of the past 70 months (a period of nearly six years). Prior to this time, the longest such duration was only nine months, a streak that ended in October 2007. LEARN MORE x
  7. 7. Stocks at Triple Extreme Previous triple manias occurred in 1901/1906/1909 and 1965/1968/1972, and both led to severe bear markets. This one is even bigger and has lasted longer. LEARN MORE y
  8. 8. Stocks Rose on Low Volume for Six Straight Years Such a thing has never occurred beforeone year, maybe, but not six. LEARN MORE z
  9. 9. Unprecedented Divergence On May 20, Robert Prechter published a rare interim issue of The Elliott Wave Theorist to tell subscribers: Today something amazing happened: The Dow Transports closed at a 6-month low on the same day that the S&P 500 made an all-time intraday high. I doubt this has ever happened before. The Dow Theory non-confirmation between the Dow Industrials and Transports is now [more than] six months old. This big a divergence, for this long a time, is very bearish. Robert Prechter President, Elliott Wave International {
  10. 10. Advisor Bearishness at 38-Year Low (optimism near record high) The 30-week moving average of the percentage of bears among stock market advisors is at a 38-year low. (Investors Intelligence data is inverted to show optimism.) LEARN MORE |
  11. 11. www.elliottwave.com/wave/bubbleintrouble Click the link below for: 1. Detailed forecasts 2. Larger charts 3. Extended Commentary