8th june 2018source: gaslog interpretation of shell lng outlook 2018, bp energy outlook 2018, wood...

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4 th International Energy and Shipping Seminar Developing Greece’s 1 st FSRU terminal 8 th June 2018

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Page 1: 8th June 2018Source: GasLog interpretation of Shell LNG Outlook 2018, BP Energy Outlook 2018, Wood Mackenzie, Bloomberg, UBS, Credit Suisse, Wells Fargo and Barclays Note: 2017 LNG

4th International Energy and Shipping Seminar

Developing Greece’s 1st FSRU terminal

8th June 2018

Page 2: 8th June 2018Source: GasLog interpretation of Shell LNG Outlook 2018, BP Energy Outlook 2018, Wood Mackenzie, Bloomberg, UBS, Credit Suisse, Wells Fargo and Barclays Note: 2017 LNG

June 2018

Expected long-term LNG production growth…

Source: Gaslog, IGU, Wood Makenzie, Poten

▪ Over 110 mtpa of new capacity to be added 2018-20

▪ c.700 mtpa of potential supply sources beyond 2020

▪ In early 2018, many of these projects have made progress towards FID

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Page 3: 8th June 2018Source: GasLog interpretation of Shell LNG Outlook 2018, BP Energy Outlook 2018, Wood Mackenzie, Bloomberg, UBS, Credit Suisse, Wells Fargo and Barclays Note: 2017 LNG

June 2018

…Needed to meet long term demand forecast

LNG Demand Forecasts – 2017 to 2025 (Million Tons Per Annum)

Many LNG industry participants are forecasting significant demand growth through 2025

Source: GasLog interpretation of Shell LNG Outlook 2018, BP Energy Outlook 2018, Wood Mackenzie, Bloomberg, UBS, Credit Suisse, Wells Fargo and Barclays Note: 2017 LNG demand of 293 mtpa taken from Shell LNG Outlook 2018

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Page 4: 8th June 2018Source: GasLog interpretation of Shell LNG Outlook 2018, BP Energy Outlook 2018, Wood Mackenzie, Bloomberg, UBS, Credit Suisse, Wells Fargo and Barclays Note: 2017 LNG

June 2018

LNG demand expected to exceed supply in early 2020s

LNG market could be in balance by as early as 2020

LNG Supply versus Demand estimates

FIDs for new supply required in next 12-18 months to meet anticipated demand in 2020+

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Page 5: 8th June 2018Source: GasLog interpretation of Shell LNG Outlook 2018, BP Energy Outlook 2018, Wood Mackenzie, Bloomberg, UBS, Credit Suisse, Wells Fargo and Barclays Note: 2017 LNG

June 2018

FSRU projects: a cost efficient and flexible solution to address growth in demand

FSRUs to open up new markets

LITHUANIAKlaipeda

UKRAINAOdessa

ISRAELHadra-buoy

LEBANON

JORDANAqaba

MALTA

ITALYLivorno (OLT)

TURKEYIzmirDortyol

UKTeesside GasportP Meridian-buoy

CANARY ISLANDS

BENIN

KENYA

SOUTH AFRICASaldhanaBayRichards Bay

BRAZILSergipe Pecem VT2 Bahia Salvador VT1 Guanabara Bay VT3

BRAZILNew terminals

CHILEMejillones

Octopus LNGURUGUAYMontevideo

ARGENTINAEscobarBahia Blanca

COLUMBIACartagena

ARUBA

DOMINICAN REPUBLICSan Pedro de Macoris

PUERTO RICOAguirre

EL SALVADOR

PANAMA

JAMAICA

USANE Gateway-buoysNeptune-buoys

MYANMAR

KUWAITAhmadi

BAHRAINUAEDusup

PAKISTANPort KasimBahria

INDIASwan

Jagrad Digha

Gangavaram

Kakinada Kariakal

SRI LANKA

BANGLADESHMaheskhali

CHINATianjin

China 1China 2

PHILIPPINES

VIETNAMTHAILANDMARTINQUE/GUADELOUPE

GHANA

MALAYSIAMelaka JRU

LNG FSRU terminals(incl. FSU)

In OperationUnder Construction Planned or possible FSRUs

EGYPTAin SokhnaSENEGAL

MAURITIUS

IVORY COAST

NAMIBIA

INDONESIALampung Jakarta Bay)Java 1CiilacapJava SaipemSmall Scale (9 or more)

GREECEAlexandroupolis

KALININGRAD

CROATIA

CYPRUS

HONG KONG

AUSTRALIANew South WalesCrib Point

MADEIRA

5

Page 6: 8th June 2018Source: GasLog interpretation of Shell LNG Outlook 2018, BP Energy Outlook 2018, Wood Mackenzie, Bloomberg, UBS, Credit Suisse, Wells Fargo and Barclays Note: 2017 LNG

June 2018

New landscape in the transportation of Natural Gas to Europe via pipelines

❑ The routes from East to West

▪ The South Corridor – SCPx, TANAP, TAP: Moving Azeri Gas to the SE and Western European Markets.1,850 km through Turkey

▪ Enhancing the South Corridor with Turkmen gas

▪ New gas from Iranian fields – Reviving the “Silk Road”

▪ Eastern Mediterranean gas – Moving gas from Israeli offshore fields through Turkey

❑ The transportation from Russia to the Balkans

▪ Ukraine crisis – Discontinuing Russian gas transiting through Ukraine (end 2019)

▪ Cancellation of the South Stream Pipeline

▪ Signing of the Turkish Stream pipeline; 1 or 2 branches

▪ New routing of Russian gas to the Balkans (Greece, Bulgaria, FYROM) through Turkey

▪ Potentially more gas to the West (new pipeline of TAP phase II?)

❑ Growing dependence of the European Markets from Turkey

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Page 7: 8th June 2018Source: GasLog interpretation of Shell LNG Outlook 2018, BP Energy Outlook 2018, Wood Mackenzie, Bloomberg, UBS, Credit Suisse, Wells Fargo and Barclays Note: 2017 LNG

June 2018 7

Page 8: 8th June 2018Source: GasLog interpretation of Shell LNG Outlook 2018, BP Energy Outlook 2018, Wood Mackenzie, Bloomberg, UBS, Credit Suisse, Wells Fargo and Barclays Note: 2017 LNG

June 2018

Gas routes from East to West – The Southern Corridor

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Page 9: 8th June 2018Source: GasLog interpretation of Shell LNG Outlook 2018, BP Energy Outlook 2018, Wood Mackenzie, Bloomberg, UBS, Credit Suisse, Wells Fargo and Barclays Note: 2017 LNG

June 2018

Potential new source for the Southern Corridor - Turkmenistan

9

Page 10: 8th June 2018Source: GasLog interpretation of Shell LNG Outlook 2018, BP Energy Outlook 2018, Wood Mackenzie, Bloomberg, UBS, Credit Suisse, Wells Fargo and Barclays Note: 2017 LNG

June 2018

Potential new source for the Southern Corridor - Iran

IRAN - TURKEY

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Page 11: 8th June 2018Source: GasLog interpretation of Shell LNG Outlook 2018, BP Energy Outlook 2018, Wood Mackenzie, Bloomberg, UBS, Credit Suisse, Wells Fargo and Barclays Note: 2017 LNG

June 2018

Potential new source for the Southern Corridor - Israel

IRAN - TURKEY

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Page 12: 8th June 2018Source: GasLog interpretation of Shell LNG Outlook 2018, BP Energy Outlook 2018, Wood Mackenzie, Bloomberg, UBS, Credit Suisse, Wells Fargo and Barclays Note: 2017 LNG

June 2018

The existing Trans-Balkan Pipeline

IRAN - TURKEY

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Page 13: 8th June 2018Source: GasLog interpretation of Shell LNG Outlook 2018, BP Energy Outlook 2018, Wood Mackenzie, Bloomberg, UBS, Credit Suisse, Wells Fargo and Barclays Note: 2017 LNG

June 2018

The ‘new’ Turkish Stream Pipeline that will replace the Trans-Balkan Pipeline

IRAN - TURKEY

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Page 14: 8th June 2018Source: GasLog interpretation of Shell LNG Outlook 2018, BP Energy Outlook 2018, Wood Mackenzie, Bloomberg, UBS, Credit Suisse, Wells Fargo and Barclays Note: 2017 LNG

June 2018

Turkey: The Pivotal Point in the Gas Supply Chain

IRAN - TURKEY

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Page 15: 8th June 2018Source: GasLog interpretation of Shell LNG Outlook 2018, BP Energy Outlook 2018, Wood Mackenzie, Bloomberg, UBS, Credit Suisse, Wells Fargo and Barclays Note: 2017 LNG

June 2018

LNG the only realistic alternative to differentiate

❑ Multiple and independent supply sources

▪ Security of supply

❑ Outside of Turkish territory

❑ Opportunity for US gas to be marketed in SE Europe

❑ Enhances pricing flexibility

❑ Safer gas transportation

▪ Offers political security

❑ Lower-cost, easier-to-develop infrastructures

▪ Flexible and scalable

❑ Can support underperforming pipeline projects

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Page 16: 8th June 2018Source: GasLog interpretation of Shell LNG Outlook 2018, BP Energy Outlook 2018, Wood Mackenzie, Bloomberg, UBS, Credit Suisse, Wells Fargo and Barclays Note: 2017 LNG

June 2018

New LNG Terminal in Northern Greece - Alexandroupolis

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Page 17: 8th June 2018Source: GasLog interpretation of Shell LNG Outlook 2018, BP Energy Outlook 2018, Wood Mackenzie, Bloomberg, UBS, Credit Suisse, Wells Fargo and Barclays Note: 2017 LNG

June 2018

The Project is located offshore Alexandroupolis and connects to the pipeline system(s)

Floating Terminal

10 km

Alexandroupolis

Subsea pipeline

24 km / D = 30”

Onshore pipeline

4 km / D = 30’’

National NG

Transmission

System (ESFA)

New M/R - DESFA

NNGTS (ESFA)

New M/R - TAP

TAPTAP

The Project comprises the FSRU and the pipeline system (subsea and onshore sections)

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Page 18: 8th June 2018Source: GasLog interpretation of Shell LNG Outlook 2018, BP Energy Outlook 2018, Wood Mackenzie, Bloomberg, UBS, Credit Suisse, Wells Fargo and Barclays Note: 2017 LNG

June 2018

A new energy gateway to Europe

Greece

Alexandroupolis

BulgariaTurkey

Komotini

Stara Zagora

to Romania &

Eastern

European

markets

(e.g. Ukraine)

LNG

supply

Kipi

24”

36”

30”

Greek National Gas Transmission System (ESFA)

Gas Interconnector Greece – Bulgaria (IGB)

Gas Interconnector Greece – Turkey (ITG)

TAP / TANAP

Country networks – SEE and Balkans gas ring

Kula - Sidirokastro

FYROM

Gas Interconnector Greece – FYROM (planned)

Gas Interconnector Bulgaria – Serbia (IBS)

SERBIA

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Page 19: 8th June 2018Source: GasLog interpretation of Shell LNG Outlook 2018, BP Energy Outlook 2018, Wood Mackenzie, Bloomberg, UBS, Credit Suisse, Wells Fargo and Barclays Note: 2017 LNG

June 2018

Best placed to offer an Alternative Supply and Route Solution…

• Security & Diversification

of Supply

• New Pricing

• Enhancing trading

optionality

LNG terminal N. Greece

…to Bulgaria and onwards to Romania, Serbia and the wider region

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Page 20: 8th June 2018Source: GasLog interpretation of Shell LNG Outlook 2018, BP Energy Outlook 2018, Wood Mackenzie, Bloomberg, UBS, Credit Suisse, Wells Fargo and Barclays Note: 2017 LNG

June 2018

Backbone of the Vertical Corridor – Enhances the South Corridor

LNG terminal N. Greece

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Page 21: 8th June 2018Source: GasLog interpretation of Shell LNG Outlook 2018, BP Energy Outlook 2018, Wood Mackenzie, Bloomberg, UBS, Credit Suisse, Wells Fargo and Barclays Note: 2017 LNG

June 2018

A project of European priority - Enhances supply security and market integration

❑ Project of Common Interest (PCI)

❑ Connecting Europe Facility (CEF)

Project was awarded grant for FEED study and Preparation of EPC/ITT Dossier

Study Completed: August 31, 2017

❑ Included in the European Energy Security Strategy

❑ CESEC Initiative

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Page 22: 8th June 2018Source: GasLog interpretation of Shell LNG Outlook 2018, BP Energy Outlook 2018, Wood Mackenzie, Bloomberg, UBS, Credit Suisse, Wells Fargo and Barclays Note: 2017 LNG

June 2018

GasLog has joined the Project

❑ On February 9, 2017, GasLog Cyprus Investments Ltd. a fully owned subsidiary of GasLog Ltd.

joined the Project by acquiring 20% in the share capital of Gastrade S.A.

❑ GasLog is an international owner, operator and manager of LNG carriers providing support to

international energy companies as part of their LNG logistics chain. GasLog's consolidated

owned fleet consists of 29 LNG carriers (25 ships on the water and four on order). GasLog Ltd.

is listed in the New York Stock Exchange

❑ GasLog will undertake the Operations and Maintenance of the LNG floating unit

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Page 23: 8th June 2018Source: GasLog interpretation of Shell LNG Outlook 2018, BP Energy Outlook 2018, Wood Mackenzie, Bloomberg, UBS, Credit Suisse, Wells Fargo and Barclays Note: 2017 LNG

June 2018

Project status update & next steps

Latest event

❑ Gastrade and DEPA reached an agreement on May 2nd 2018 regarding the future capacity

reservation by DEPA to the Alexandroupolis LNG as well as for DEPA’s participation in the

relevant market test that will be carried out in the coming months

Imminent developments

❑ DEPA and BEH will become shareholders of Gastrade

❑ BEH is also expected to agree its future capacity reservation to the Alexandroupolis LNG

Next key milestones

❑ FID in Q4 2018

❑ EPC award in Q4 2018

Timeline

❑ FSRU delivery: 20 months from EPC award

❑ Commercial launch: Q4 2020

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Page 24: 8th June 2018Source: GasLog interpretation of Shell LNG Outlook 2018, BP Energy Outlook 2018, Wood Mackenzie, Bloomberg, UBS, Credit Suisse, Wells Fargo and Barclays Note: 2017 LNG

Thank you