Aerospace Industry DisadvantageBoston Debate LeagueVarsity Division

Aerospace Industry Disadvantage Table of Contents

Summary2Glossary3

First Negative Constructive (1NC) Shell 4-6

Uniqueness ExtensionsAT: Uniqueness Overwhelms the Link FAA Solves7

Link ExtensionsAT: No Link Only Limits Surveillance8AT: Non-Unique and Link Turn States Are Limiting Now9AT: Link Turn Plan Reverses Legal Uncertainty10

Internal Link ExtensionsAT: No Internal Link Industry Hype11AT: No Internal Link Drone Industry Resilient12

Impact ExtensionsAT: Impact Turn Aerospace Lobby Blocks Deficit Recovery13

Summary

This Negative position argues that the Affirmatives plan should be rejected because it is harmful to the U.S. aerospace industry. The argument continues to evaluate why the aerospace industry is critical for both our economy and our technological competitiveness.

First, the Negative needs to prove that the drone industry is thriving or will continue to thrive in the status quo. This is so that the Negative can distinguish between the status quo and the world of the plan. Specifically, the evidence indicates that recent regulatory changes are encouraging investors and inventors to enter the drones market. Fundamentally, this means that the status quo is a world in which the drones industry will grow stronger, while the world of the plan is a world in which the drones industry will collapse.

Why will the drone industry collapse? The evidence indicates that the rush to ban certain usages of drones would destroy the confidence that has been built up recently. People would be afraid of entering the market because they are scared that their specific usage of drones could also be banned at any time. If someone does take that risk and their drone usage becomes subsequently banned, they would have lost all of their money building up their business. Most wise investors would never take that risk.

A connection also needs to be made between the drones industry and the aerospace industry in general. The evidence indicates that the age of manned flight is ending, and as the drone industry gets stronger, the aerospace sector will shift towards drones so much that there would be more unmanned flights than manned flights within the next two decades.

Lastly, the aerospace industry is one of the largest drivers of our economy, and arguably the strongest driver of our innovation in technology. There are many reasons for this, including new technological patents that are developed through the industry, the creation of new jobs, and exports to other countries for their flight needs.

Glossary

Aeronautics/Aerospace Industry An industry that focuses on all aircraft, spacecraft, and associated technological industries.

FAA (Federal Aviation Administration) A branch of the U.S. Department of Transportation that has the authority to regulate all aspects of U.S. civil (non-military) aviation.

Nascent Just coming into existence and beginning to display signs of future potential.

Paranoia A thought process believed to be heavily influenced by anxiety or fear, often to the point of irrationality and delusion.

Political Gridlock A situation when there is difficulty of passing laws in a legislature because the votes for and against a proposed law are evenly divided, or in which two legislative houses, or the executive branch and the legislature are controlled by different political parties, or otherwise cannot agree.

UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle) Commonly known as a drone, and also referred to as an unpiloted aerial vehicle and a remotely piloted aircraft (RPA), is an aircraft without a human pilot aboard. Its flight is controlled either autonomously by onboard computers or by the remote control of a pilot on the ground or in another vehicle.

U.S. Department of Defense An executive branch department of the federal government of the United States charged with coordinating and supervising all agencies and functions of the government concerned directly with national security and the United States Armed Forces.

U.S. Department of Homeland Security A department of the United States federal government, created in response to the September 11 attacks, and with the primary responsibilities of protecting the territory of the United States and protectorates from and responding to terrorist attacks, man-made accidents, and natural disasters.

U.S. Department of Commerce A department of the United States government concerned with promoting economic growth. The mission of the department is to "promote job creation and improved living standards for all Americans by creating an infrastructure that promotes economic growth, technological competitiveness, and sustainable development".

Warrant (Search) a court order that a magistrate, judge or Supreme Court official issues to authorize law enforcement officers to conduct a search of a person, location, or vehicle for evidence of a crime and to confiscate any evidence they find.

1NC Shell (1/3)A. Uniqueness Previous regulations have prevented the US drones industry from being globally competitive, but recent changes are bringing us back from the brink. Hazel and Aoude, partner and associate at Oliver Wyman, 2015(Bob Hazel, Transportation Practice at Oliver Wyman, and Georges Aoude, Transportation Practice at Oliver Wyman, U.S. Regulators Must Allow Drone Industry to Catch Up, June 22, 2015, http://www.brinknews.com/u-s-regulators-must-allow-drone-industry-to-catch-up/)In Japan, farmers have been using drones for decades to inspect crops. In Canada, police use drones for search-and-rescue operations. In the U.K., drones are used for commercial photography. In the U.S., these activities have always been illegal without special permission from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), which, until recently, was rarely granted. That began to change this year when the FAA proposed regulations for commercial drones. Once the rules are finalized in a couple of years, the U.S. can finally start catching up with other countries in this growing industry. Meanwhile, the U.S. is leaving billions of dollars in economic growth on the table as drone developers and customers do business elsewhere. It is not too late to catch up. With reasonable and globally competitive regulations, the U.S. could still become a leader in this growing industry. Therules proposed in Februaryare a good first step because they are based on the FAAs characterization of the risk that the small, unmanned aircraft pose to the public. Its important for the FAA to create the right risk-based foundation for drone regulations, not just to unleash the U.S. market, but also to guide the next regulatory issue that will be more fraught: privacy. By 2035, the number of unmanned aerial vehicle, or UAV, operations each yearwill surpass the number of manned aircraft operations, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation research arm, the Volpe Center. Industry experts estimate the global drone market is worthbetween $6 billion and $12 billion, and commercial drones account for about 10 percent. The Volpe Center forecasts the U.S. commercial drone market will reach $5 billion annually by 2035.

1NC Shell (2/3)B. Link The plan would destroy this new nascent drone industry.Berry, 2014 (Michael [partner in the Philadelphia office of Levine Sullivan Koch & Schulz LLP]; THE DRONES ARE COMING: ... AND FOR NOW WE SHOULD GET OUT OF THEIR WAY; 36 Pennsylvania Lawyer 50)In the meantime state and local governments around the country have begun to consider drone legislation. By the end of 2013, 43 states, including Pennsylvania, had considered drone legislation, with nine passing laws. All nine of those states have placed restrictions on the government's use of drones. Most of those laws regulate law enforcement, permitting drones to be used only in limited circumstances such as when the police have a warrant or an exception to the warrant requirement applies. Three states have placed limits on the private use of drones. Oregon allows private property owners to file suit against drone operators under certain circumstances if the drones are flown less than 400 feet above their property. Texas allows people and companies to use drones to capture images in some circumstances (such as for scholarly research, mapping land or monitoring gas utilities). But Texas law makes it a crime to use a drone to capture an image of a person or private property "with the intent to conduct surveillance." Idaho has gone even farther, banning people from using drones to photograph or film others without their consent for the purpose of publication. Pennsylvania should not rush to follow these states' examples of restricting private drone use. The Texas and Idaho laws pose serious constitutional questions. People can take photographs of others in places where there is no reasonable expectation of privacy, whether their subjects consent or not. This principle is deeply etched into the law and has proven essential to newsgathering and reporting on matters of public concern. Legislators should not trample this fundamental legal principle. Second, these laws are unnecessary here. Pennsylvania already has a number of laws in place to protect people against the harms those other states are seeking to prevent. For example, our stalking, harassment and "Peeping Tom" laws already make it illegal for people to use drones in potentially nefarious ways. If someone believes he or she has been victimized by a drone, Pennsylvania already provides an array of remedies. Some examples: If a person claims that a drone operator invaded his or her privacy by filming the person in a private place, the person would have a remedy through a claim for an intrusion. If that private footage were then tortuously broadcast, the person could file a claim for publication of private facts. Similarly, if a person were physically injured by someone's drone, that person could file a claim for battery. And if a person claims that drones are interfering with enjoyment of his or her property, that [*54] person can file a claim for nuisance. When it comes to private use of drones, there is simply no need to rush to pass new state laws. Finally, rushing to enact new laws could threaten to extinguish the nascent drone industry before it gets off the ground and before we fully understand drones' potential uses and benefits. We should see how drones develop, what we learn from the FAA test sites and what rules the FAA proposes and implements. We should not act before we have a more complete record. In the meantime, if problems arise, we should allow existing laws to do their job. Drones are coming. As they begin to arrive, let's monitor their progress and get out of their way for now.

1NC Shell (3/3)C. Internal Link Drones are key to the aerospace industry. The plan would destroy our competitiveness.EU Business, 2014(Remotely Piloted Aviation Systems, or Drones, April 8, 2014, EUBusiness.com, http://www.eubusiness.com/topics/transport/drones/)Drones are already beginning to appear in our skies but there are no clear general rules, at national or at European level, which put in place the necessary safeguards protect the safety, security and privacy of people. In addition, operational and technical rules also need to be further developed in order to ensure that civil drones can fly like 'normal' air traffic and be integrated among 'normally piloted' aircraft in non-segregated airspace without affecting the safety and the operation of the whole aviation system. It is clear that mastering civil drones (RPAS) technology is key to the future competitiveness of the European aeronautics industry - on some estimates in the next 10 years it could be worth 10% of the aviation market. The impact of drones and their many applications on the economy could potentially be compared to the development of the internet in the nineties. It means that the safe development of the European market for drones is crucial step towards building the aviation market of the future. For all these reasons the European Council, in December 2013, asked the Commission to develop a framework for the safe integration of RPAS into civil airspace as from 2016.

D. Impact The aerospace industry is key to US economic power and innovation.Faux, 2012 (Jeff Faux, Ex-President and Distinguished Fellow of Economic Policy Institute, Studied, taught and published on a wide variety of economic and political issues from the global economy to neighborhood community development, from monetary policy to political strategy. He is the author or co-author of six books, the latest being, The Servant Economy: Where Americas Elite is Sending the Middle Class (Wiley, 2012).Economic Policy Institute, The Aerospace Sector as a National AssetViewpoint, http://www.epi.org/publication/webfeatures_viewpoints_airspace_natlasset/, May 14, 2002)The aerospace industry is a unique strategic asset for America. In addition to its obvious national security benefits, the industry makes, and must continue to make, a critical contribution to our economic growth and rising living standards. U.S. aerospace is a major source of: Technological innovation with substantial spillovers to other industrial and commercial sectors. High wage employment, which spreads the benefits of rising productivity throughout the U.S. economy. Exports, which America will need to substantially increase in order to resolve the growing problem of our current account deficit and rising foreign debt. Thus, a healthy aerospace industry ought to be a primary goal of our nations economic policy. It represents the cumulative private and public investments of past decades. Allowing it to wither is, in effect, a national decision to abandon those investments.

AT: Uniqueness Overwhelms the Link FAA Solves[___]

[___] Economic growth will only happen if the industry isnt burdened by new regulations.Wolfgang, 2013 (Ben; Drone industry predicts explosive economic boost; Mar 12; www.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/mar/12/drone-industry-predicts-explosive-economic-boost/?page=all)Drones as weapons and drones as spies remain matters of intense debate across the country, but the controversial aircraft are poised to make an impact as something else: economic engines. Private-sector drones also called unmanned aerial systems or UAVs will create more than 70,000 jobs within three years and will pump more than $82 billion into the U.S. economy by 2025, according to a major new study commissioned by the industrys leading trade group. But the report, authored by aerospace specialist and former George Washington University professor Darryl Jenkins, assumes that the White House and Congress stick to the current schedule and have in place the necessary legal and regulatory frameworks. Current law calls for full drone integration into U.S. airspace by September 2015, but many key privacy questions surrounding UAVs have yet to be answered. Theres also growing doubt that the Federal Aviation Administration can meet the congressionally mandated timetable.

AT: No Link Only Limits Surveillance[___]

[___] Law enforcement drones are key to make up for cuts in military drone spending. Reid, 2014 (Melanie [Associate Professor of Law, Lincoln Memorial University-Duncan School of Law]; GROUNDING DRONES: BIG BROTHER'S TOOL BOX NEEDS REGULATION NOT ELIMINATION; 20 Rich. J.L. & Tech. 9;)The Pentagon cut spending on military drones from $4.8 billion in 2012 to $3.8 billion in 2013 with further reductions anticipated. n53 Initially, drones were used by the military as a reconnaissance tool, with the D-21 drone making its first reconnaissance mission over China in 1969. n54 In 1995, the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) sent drones on more than 600 reconnaissance missions in the Bosnian conflict, and the drones also provided intelligence for NATO forces in the 1999 Kosovo air campaign by "searching for targets" and "keeping an eye on Kosovar-Albanian refugee camps." n55 In January 2001, the CIA considered assassinating Osama bin Laden with the Predator drone, but the Predator had only been used for reconnaissance missions. n56 This was the first occasion that the military considered using drones as a weapon rather than as a reconnaissance tool. n57 Today, with significant military budget cuts looming, drone manufacturers need to find a new market for their creations. P14 Therefore, aerospace manufacturers are looking to create a lucrative civilian market. The chief operating officer of a Los Angeles-based company that makes operating systems for drones, Denis Clements, remarked that the drone industry is transitioning "from all-military on a relatively small scale to international and commercial on a large scale." n58 The AUVSI estimates that the industry will be worth $ 82 billion and employ 100,000 people by 2025. n59 P15 Law enforcement, in particular, is interested in using drones as they are typically smaller than traditional aircraft, less likely to be detected, create less noise and vibrations, and less expensive than aircraft and helicopters so they can afford to purchase and use more of them. n60 Of course, the cost depends upon the size and sophistication of the drone, and law enforcement need also worry about collisions and tort liability if one of their drones collides with other aircraft or destroys personal property on the ground.

AT: Non-Unique and Link Turn States Are Limiting Now[___]

[___] Only some states will limit drones. The drones industry will just set up shop where the environment is friendly. Federal regulation makes the entire nation a hostile environment.Wolfgang, 2013 (Ben; Drone industry predicts explosive economic boost; Mar 12; www.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/mar/12/drone-industry-predicts-explosive-economic-boost/?page=all;)Theres also growing doubt that the Federal Aviation Administration can meet the congressionally mandated timetable. If deadlines are met and drones become commonplace in American skies, some states will be especially big winners. Virginia, for example, stands to gain nearly 2,500 jobs by 2017. It also could take in $4.4 million in tax revenue and see more than $460 million in overall economic activity by 2017, the report says. Virginia would gain the eighth-most jobs of any state as a result of drone integration. Maryland isnt far behind, with projections of more than 1,700 new jobs by 2017. California would be by far the biggest winner in terms of jobs, with more than 12,000 expected. Florida, Texas, New York, Washington, Connecticut, Kansas, Arizona and Pennsylvania are also expected to be benefit greatly from the coming drone economy. This is an incredibly exciting time for an industry developing technology that will benefit society, as well as the economy, said Michael Toscano, president and CEO of the Association for Unmanned Vehicle Systems International, a trade group that has existed for more than 40 years but has come into the public eye only recently. Drone expansion means the creation of quality, high-paying American jobs, Mr. Toscano continued. But the motivation behind Tuesdays report arguably the most sweeping look ever at the economic potential of drones runs deeper than just dollars and cents. The industry faces an uncertain future in light of growing public paranoia surrounding the craft paranoia that has only been heightened by the debate over whether the Obama administration would ever consider using a drone to kill an American on U.S. soil. While the drones that will be employed by U.S. companies or law enforcement agencies are far different than the military-style UAVs equipped with Hellfire missiles, those distinctions arent always clear. Tuesdays report not only offered the industry a chance to shine the spotlight on drones positive uses and economic potential, but also served as an opportunity or, perhaps a warning to lawmakers seeking to limit UAVs. More than 20 states are considering bills to establish strict guidelines for what drones can do. Virginia is mulling a measure that would put a two-year moratorium on all government use of drones. Such a measure would be especially harsh because first-responders such as police and fire departments are expected to be one of the largest markets for UAVs. Like other growing and thriving sectors of the economy, the drone business likely will set up shop in friendly environments.

AT: Link Turn Plan Reverses Legal Uncertainty[___]

[___] The new FAA regulations and Obamas executive order are already solving current legal uncertainty. The plan reverses all of that.Whitlock, reporter for the Washington Post, 2015(Craig, Washington Post, FAA rules might allow thousands of business drones, February 15, 2015, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/faa-releases-proposed-rules-for-domestic-drone-use/2015/02/15/6787bdce-b51b-11e4-a200-c008a01a6692_story.html)In reality, FAA officials have acknowledged that it is extremely difficult to police the skies or crack down on rogue drone pilots. Most drones are too small to appear on radar. And even when they are spotted near airports or intruding into congested airspace, it is hard to chase them, much less to track down whoever is flying them by remote control. Although the proposed regulations announced Sunday are tailored for commercial drones, they are expected to trigger a huge expansion in drone use by government agencies, such as police and fire departments. Under current rules, agencies must go through a cumbersome application process to win FAA approval to fly drones, determined on a case-by-case basis. The new regulations would lift many of those obstacles. Law enforcement agencies could fly their own drones to conduct surveillance or could hire a contractor to do so. The FAA and the White House had intended to unveil their drone rules later this month. But an official document highlighting some of the proposed regulations was inadvertently posted on a federal Web site Friday night, prompting the Obama administration to announce the changes in the middle of a holiday weekend. While the FAA rules are designed to exploit the economic potential of drones without jeopardizing aviation safety, the order issued Sunday by President Obama is intended to safeguard personal privacy and require the federal government to be more forthcoming about when and where it uses drones to conduct surveillance. All federal agencies, for example, would have to disclose where they conduct drone operations within the United States, as well as their policies for storing and protecting personal information collected from surveillance flights. Agencies would also have to issue an annual report detailing the types of missions they flew in the previous year. The order will have a large impact on the Defense Department and law enforcement agencies such as the FBI and the Department of Homeland Security, which uses drones to patrol the nations borders. The FBI has been especially secretive about its drone operations, even ducking lawmakers queries about how many it has and how often they are used. It is a very big deal and a very positive step, said Lisa Ellman, a former Justice Department official who helped prepare the presidential order and works on drone issues as a lawyer in private practice. The agencies, she said, understand that even with all the benefits of drones, the American public has concerns concerns about privacy and concerns about accountability. In addition, Obama directed the Commerce Department to work with companies and the drone industry to develop a voluntary code of conduct for the private sector regarding surveillance and privacy protections.

AT: No Internal Link Industry Hype[___]

[___] There is consensus on the economic impact of drones.Drugan, 2015 (John; Drones a source of debate-and economic impact; Feb 5; www.uschamberfoundation.org/blog/post/drones-source-debate-and-economic-impact/42600;)At a recent hearing held by the House Science Space and Technology Committee, lawmakers and business leaders cited studies predicting as many as 200,000 new jobs and an $82 million economic impact from this new technology. A majority of the hearing was a dialogue between witnesses and Congress to discuss how the FAA should shape regulation to introduce them into the National Airspace System in a manner that will best foster growth within the industry. The regulatory debate surrounding the FAAs UAV policies will no doubt be intensified and expedited, given the recent alarming incident of a UAV drone landing on the White House lawn. Surprisingly, despite disagreement on the FAAs regulation, Congress and industry experts were in complete agreement on the potentially massive economic impact that UAV technology could have on the American economy and the necessity to act as soon as possible. What may be even more surprising than the impact UAV technology may have are the different sectors of American industry that will be influenced by it.

AT: No Internal Link Drone Industry Resilient[___]

[___] Its a new industryits not resilient yet. The plan creates uncertainty within the industryderails growth. Koebler, 2013 (Jason; Drone Industry: Privacy 'Distractions' Could Have Major Economic Impacts; Mar 13; http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2013/03/13/drone-industry-privacy-distractions-could-have-major-economic-impacts;)A new report released by a drone industry trade group suggests that using unmanned planes in the United States could create more than 70,000 jobs and $82 billion in economic impact over the next few years. But the head of the organization warns that "privacy distractions" could derail the industry. The report, released Tuesday by the Association for Unmanned Vehicle Systems International, suggests that most of the impact will come within the first three years of commercial integration of dronestentatively set by the Federal Aviation Administration to occur in 2015and that drones will most commonly be used in agricultural settings and for public safety reasons. [READ: Hagel Orders Review of 'Drone Medal'] So far, at least 31 states are considering legislation that would limit the use of drones, and a bill in Virginia that would put a two-year moratorium on drone use is waiting to be signed by governor Bob McDonnell. Many of the bills being considered have been championed by civil liberties groups such as the ACLU and would put severe limits on the commercial use of drones in those states. Some proposed bills would require police to get a search warrant before operating a drone. Most of the proposed bills, according to Michael Toscano, president and CEO of AUVSI, would delay or diminish the positive economic impacts that the drone industry can have in a state. "This privacy stuff is a distraction," he says. "Look how much energy we're spending on that. It has the ability to affect things going forward."

AT: Impact Turn Aerospace Lobby Blocks Deficit Recovery[___] Deficit recovery is not an excuse for the failure to create jobs. Political controversy should not interfere with solving for realistic consequences.Krugman, 2011 (Paul Krugman, columnist for the New York Times, Professor of Economics and International Affairs at Princeton University, recipient of the Nobel Prize in economics, The Salt Lake Tribune, Cant or Wont?, July 12, 2011, http://www.sltrib.com/sltrib/opinion/52169105-82/economy-government-workers-excuse.html.csp)If you were shocked by Fridays job report, if you thought we were doing well and were taken aback by the bad news, you havent been paying attention. The fact is, the U.S. economy has been stuck in a rut for a year and a half. Yet a destructive passivity has overtaken our discourse. Turn on your TV and youll see some self-satisfied pundit declaring that nothing much can be done about the economys short-run problems (reminder: This short run is now in its fourth year), that we should focus on the long run instead. This gets things exactly wrong. The truth is that creating jobs in a depressed economy is something government could and should be doing. Yes, there are huge political obstacles to action notably, the fact that the House is controlled by a party that benefits from the economys weakness. But political gridlock should not be conflated with economic reality. Our failure to create jobs is a choice, not a necessity a choice rationalized by an ever-shifting set of excuses. Excuse No.1: Just around the corner, theres a rainbow in the sky. Remember green shoots? Remember the summer of recovery? Policymakers keep declaring that the economy is on the mend and Lucy keeps snatching the football away. Yet these delusions of recovery have been an excuse for doing nothing as the jobs crisis festers. Excuse No.2: Fear the bond market. Two years ago The Wall Street Journal declared that interest rates on U.S. debt would soon soar unless Washington stopped trying to fight the economic slump. Ever since, warnings about the imminent attack of the bond vigilantes have been used to attack any spending on job creation. But basic economics said that rates would stay low as long as the economy was depressed and basic economics was right. The interest rate on 10-year bonds was 3.7 percent when The Wall Street Journal issued that warning; at the end of last week it was 3.03 percent. How have the usual suspects responded? By inventing their own reality. Last week, Rep. Paul Ryan, the man behind the GOP plan to dismantle Medicare, declared that we must slash government spending to take pressure off the interest rates the same pressure, I suppose, that has pushed those rates to near-record lows. Excuse No.3: Its the workers fault. Unemployment soared during the financial crisis and its aftermath. So it seems bizarre to argue that the real problem lies with the workers that the millions of Americans who were working four years ago but arent working now somehow lack the skills the economy needs. Yet thats what you hear from many pundits these days: High unemployment is structural, they say, and requires long-term solutions (which means, in practice, doing nothing). Well, if there really was a mismatch between the workers we have and the workers we need, workers who do have the right skills, and are therefore able to find jobs, should be getting big wage increases. They arent. In fact, average wages actually fell last month. Excuse No.4: We tried to stimulate the economy, and it didnt work. Everybody knows that President Barack Obama tried to stimulate the economy with a huge increase in government spending, and that it didnt work. But what everyone knows is wrong.

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