9/11: Requirements and Research Problems Raised by Them

NSF Workshop on Responding to the Unexpected

27-28 Feb 2002

Rae Zimmerman

Robert Neches, RNeches@isi.edu

Operator Input

• Seeing Urban Spaces & How to Anticipate & Protect Them - Modeling & Engineering Predictions for Impacts on Urban Spaces

• Mobile Devices to Assess Urban Risks & Threats & Relay Information from the Field

• Improving Intergovernmental Coordination & Partnerships

• Improving Public-Private Coordination & Partnerships

• If all politics is local, the best & most accurate data is - Local data is key

• Using Place to Coordinate Data, People and Activities - The Role of GIS

What’s the Important Problem?• Situations you can’t specifically plan for:

either can’t expect it or can’t afford it • Situations where prepositioned governmental

organizations alone – would not be adequate– would be overwhelmed– would be dependent on heroic efforts to succeed

• What 9/11 tells us about addressing the problemWhat 9/11 tells us about addressing the problem– must account for informal, ad hoc connectionsmust account for informal, ad hoc connections– therefore must support inclusion, interactiontherefore must support inclusion, interaction– must overcome inadequate information, uncertaintymust overcome inadequate information, uncertainty– must deal with overloadmust deal with overload

Key Contributions to be Made

• Identifying, replicating, and transferring models of what worked, e.g., 9/11

• Finding ways to do it better

• Interdisciplinary science of organizations with applications in other areas– Business and commerce

The Opportunity: Basis for Believing that Advances can be Made

• Body of data on previous crises and response effort– Archival data

– “Live simulations", games, etc

• Positive models like NY 9/11 response– Validation of social science research on flat organizations

• New technology advances: data mining, information technology, spread spectrum wireless, ...

• Key trends in network-centric computing: Authenticated and access-controlled. Underlying persistent object system of global scale, hard to take down. Major source of leverage.

Multidisciplinary Research Issues(Human, organizational, technology system, economic viability)

• Informed, collaborative decisionmaking behavior under stress

• Preparation for responding

– Robust, secure

• Operational dynamics of coordinated execution of decisions

• Increasing self-monitoring, adaptivity

The right information in the right place at the right time The right information in the right place at the right time -- no more, no less-- no more, no less

Mapping the Crisis Response Community’s Problems, Needs, and Requirements to Research Issues

• “seeing crisis situations”– timeliness -- speed, early warning extracted from diverse sources– accuracy– understandability to diverse analysts– assuring a shared, common picture

• Logistics– leveraging/coordinating initiative of private org’s– what is needed (human resources, technology, supplies); what is

immediately available, acquisition processes, transportation (ground, sea, air), storage/depot issues, maximizing consistency as updates

– donations management

• communications/data technology– communication infrastructure (technology)– mobile devices and communications -- interoperability

(technology)– data interoperability, integration and fusion

• Systems robustness– communications, data, security, electric– redundancy, reliability, fallbacks

• interagency communications / policy, procedures, social/human issues

– “nested business processes” (e.g., assuring public confidence, hierarchy and priority of processes that go into enabling transportation of assisted)

– adapting organizational processes/reward structures to be more supportive to cooperating in an interdependent world

– privacy (see also security)

• improving intergovernmental “orgware,” partnering arrangements...

• improving public/private coordination

• public/citizen communication (reaching people, identifying/reaching social groups, handling multicultural/multi-language issues, identifying leaders/spokespeople/stakeholders)

• knowledge base of “predictable aspects of unpredictable events” (e.g., behavior of social groups in buildings)

• large scale data (supply, ...)

– mining

– quality and reliability

– replacement/substitution of alternate sources when preferred not available

– data level, grain size, and suitability for intended purpose (e.g., policy decision vs.operational action)

• problem definition, problem scoping (who’s affected)

• assessing consequences, exploring “alternative futures”, in real-time

• support for rapid development of consensus and decisionmaking under time pressure

• identifying and responding to crises for common, neglected situations: small gov’t organizations with limited resources, ports

• REALISTIC, HIGH-GRADE SECURITY (in balance with technology)

Cross-cutting Themes:Evaluation Criteria

• Taking advantage of diversity

• Identification / surfacing new information

• Institutionalizing crisis response as routine systemic

response to “surge” requirements, not new

• Reducing overwhelming situations - reduction of

overload situations

• Rapid, global analysis of situation (esp. supply system)

Other Comments / Questions / Issues

• Focus: Man-made (as opposed to natural)– terrorism

– technological (oil spills, nuclear, industrial chemical, WMDs, cyber ...)

– both malicious and accidental

• Focus: Time frame– Contingency planning, Immediate response, Post-event mitigation, Mitigation

lessons learned (transfer to other crises)

• Key questions to study closer: – Dimension of “roles”, who’s affected, who sets responsibilities

– What were the failures? Need more data, study on the past cases

– Need to understand interaction with regulatory and policy issues

Personal Comment

• The operator is king -- stay in contact

• The way to make a difference is to explore new concepts of operation– New technology– Inspired by, evaluated by new social science

• Making a difference because it gets Making a difference because it gets usedused

• Which only happens if the operator is kingWhich only happens if the operator is king