a 100 percent renewable fueled transportation system david morris vice president institute for local...
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The Prospects for EthanolTRANSCRIPT
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A 100 Percent Renewable Fueled
Transportation SystemDavid MorrisVice President
Institute for Local [email protected]
Governors’ Ethanol CoalitionMarch 1, 2005
Washington, D.C.
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•The U.S. can produce at least 100 Billion gallons of ethanol per year on a sustainable basis
•A 100% renewable-fueled transportation system requires a dual electricity/liquid fuel propulsion system
•Biofuels production significantly benefits farmers and rural areas only when biorefineries are farmer-owned
The Argument
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The Prospects for Ethanol
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U.S. Ethanol Production Has Tripled Since 2001
Gallons
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U.S. and Brazilian Ethanol Production
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U.S. ethanol facilities are centered in corn states
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The U.S. can produce at least 100 billion gallons of ethanol
on a sustainable basis
Gallons5 DT/acre
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Oil receives 3-30x more subsidies than ethanol
Source: Institute for Local Self-Reliance-Oil Data, 1996; Ethanol Data, 2004
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An ethanol strategy costs far less than a hydrogen
strategyComponen
t H2 EtOHFuel(GGE)/
future $5/$2.50 $1.70-2.15Vehicle(Incremental Cost/future
$200k/$10k(FC)
$150(FFV)
Fueling Station/# cars per day $500k/10 $50k/200
Storage/Incremental
Cost)? $0
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The Need for Electricity
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Gasoline consumption is increasing 4x faster than
ethanol consumption(2002-2005)
Gallons
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A hybrid future?
Source: IEA March 2004
% of car sales
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Plug-in hybrids promise the most efficient
transportation system
mpg-equiv.
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Electricity can provide up to 100 percent of vehicle
fuel
%
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•Electricity for motors-Renewable Portfolio Standard(e.g. wind, PV, biomass, hydro, etc.)
•Engine fuel-Renewable Energy Standard(e.g. biomass, water, etc.)
A dual renewable fuel strategy for transportation
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Maximizing the Benefit to
Agriculture
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Additional revenue to farmers
from ethanol sales
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# of Plantsmid-2005
Farmer-owned refineries account for almost half of all U.S. ethanol
plants
98
48
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Farmer-owned plants produce more ethanol
than ADM
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Minnesota Model•Producer Payment-20 cents per gallon•In-state•Up to 15 million gallons a year•For 10 years
•Result•15 plants as of November 2004•About 9,000 farmer owners•Producer payment ending on 75%
of production as of 2006
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Transportation fuel could dominate agriculture
markets
Tons
13M
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The U.S. Carbohydrate Economy(circa 2050)
Feedstock(tons) 1,000,000,000Ethanol(gals) 80,000,000,000
Chemicals(tons) 250,000,000Fossil Energy
Input 0# of
Biorefineries 2,000# of Owners 1,200,000