a better world for older people is a better world for everyone · life expectancy: a brief history...
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A better world for older people is a better world for everyone
Research into action
Old age has historically been accompanied by
ill health
Understanding thebiology of ageing will change things
for the better
It doesn't have to be that way
But only if you
help us
What we came here to say
Life expectancy: a brief history
1900 Global averages
1950
1990
Today
2050 UN forecast
2100
Middle/upper-middle class
Good health, socially active
Gym, wine club or similar
Interested in change
Keeping up to date
Satisfied innovators
Former manual workers
Dependent on state pension
Poor health, multiple medicines
Socially isolated
Lots of TV
Old age: a time of satisfaction or struggle?
Bored and depressed
Some old people are so happy, healthy and wealthy they should be helping us
But many others
are not
Health is a key determinant of happiness
Poor health costs money and
causes misery
The situation today
Health costs today
Cost of items dispensed by NHS
Admissions to NHS hospitalsof people over 65
60%
£8.4bn
£5.5bn of which spent on older patients
1900 Global averages
1950
1990
Today
2050 UN forecast
2100
Life expectancy: a brief history
Success brings its own problems
Number of people with chronic conditions
Health costs tomorrow
UK health care
UK long-term care
Spending increase per capita
Age increases vulnerability to disease and functional impairment. We have known this happens for a long time but not why.
We now know enough about the physiology of ageing to extend healthspan.
You can help us do important things for older people now and transformative things later.
It doesn't have to be this way
Mechanisms that maintain health are shared between species
InsectsInvertebrates HumansMice
Shift focus on research
Sicknessand death
OthersMenopause,
hearing loss, joint stiffness, immune
diseases
Natural changes
Grey hair, wrinkles, weakness
Diseases of ageingAlzheimer’s
CancerCardiovascular
Parkinson’sMacular degeneration
Type II diabetesOsteoporosis
A few ageing mechanisms
In 2009 Science identified healthy lifespan extension byrapamycin as one of the most significant breakthroughs that year.
Live long and prosper
Extended potential healthspan
Rapamycin-treated miceControl
Survival rate of male mice
Survival rate of female mice
0 days 1400 0 days 1400
Rapamycin improves health
Infection after hip fracture
Hip fracture in previously independent, healthy older people
No infection Chest Wound UTI
A simple supplement could stop this
DHEA levels decline with age
Serum DHEAs Cortisol
20 years old 40 60 80
4
8
12
16uM
Control Trauma Trauma +5 weeks
Trauma suppresses neutrophil bactericidal function in older people
Old Young
2
6
10
14
Superoxide CPM
Cells treated with drug SB203580
Normal + drugNormal Disease
Disease + drug
Cell growth Cell growth
0 days 100 0 days 100
A cure for accelerated ageing
Removing senescent cells improves health
Removing senescent cells in mice increases exercise capacity
Old mouse with senescent cells removed
Old mouse
Distance travelled at time of exhaustion
Running time to exhaustion
0% 100%
0% 100%
Mice today, independent elders tomorrow?
Distance travelled at time of exhaustion Time to exhaustion Speed
Old person 'with senescent cells removed'
Old person
Show me the money
Today there is little research funding on ageing relative to the scale of the problem or the potential rewards.
No UK charity now funds research into the biology of ageing. The British Society for Research on Ageing now seeks to do so.
Ageing is a global issue and so we are acting with AFAR and the Glenn Foundation. We welcome other partners.
UK disease costs vs. research spend
£11.0bn Cost of stroke £19.0bn Cost of dementia
£15.8bn Cost of cancer£23.7bn Cost of diabetes
£8.3bn All medical research
£0.02bn Biology of ageing research
Amount spent on US research
DiabetesCancer Parkinson's Dementia Visual impairment
Cardio-vascular
Osteoarthritis Ageing research
$364 $135 $125 $38 $35 $23 $12 $8
Per sufferer of disease
You get what you pay for
£715bn UK budget
£106bnNHS Spent on
people aged 65 and over
£10bnScience
£0.02bn Biology of ageing research
£42bn
What if we succeed? Lifespan Onset of ill health
Now
Compressed morbidity
Extended healthy lifespan
Nightmare scenario
Age 50 85
Improved healthspan had the largest impact on number of healthy older adults
Number of non-disabled people 65 and older in the US
90m
70
50
302010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
87.2m Improved healthspan
76.5m Delayed cancer
75.5m Medical care baseline 76.1m Delayed heart disease
26.6m Improved healthspan
32.0m Delayed cancer31.2m Delayed heart disease30.9m Medical care baseline
And it did so without increasing the number of disabled people
102010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
20
30m
Number of disabled people 65 and older in the US
A large benefit
There will be a large social benefit when we improve healthspan.
$8bn
$4bn
0
Improved healthspan Delayed cancer Delayed heart disease
$430bn $450bn-$470bn
$270bn
$7,110bn
$3,040bn
$4,070bndifference
Net cost
Benefit
43% of all the gold ever mined
29 years of clean drinking water globally
1.7% of total global wealth
The US alone could save $4 trillion if findings from ageing research were to be applied. That is the same as:
How much is $4 trillion?
Policy implications
Progress brings the promise of increased healthspan.
More than $7 trillion in social value awaits the US alone if we succeed.
Fiscal challenges are manageable.
“The only thing we have to fear is fear itself.” Franklin D. Roosevelt
No. We're offering you something better.
The chance to spend more of your life contented, useful and interesting to know.
Which is what everyone wants.
Are we offering immortality?
What should you do next?
Ask us the hard questions.
Tell us if you support us, tell us if you don't, but tell us why.
Enjoy the wine.