A BROAD SPECTRUM LOOK FROM A DISTANCE

FUTUROLOGY:

T I M E

S

P

A

C

ELOCAL

PRESENT

D ISTANT

FUTURE

Most Decisions are concerned

with present day local issues.

Very Few Decisions are concerned with future

times and distantlocations.

HUMAN PERSPECTIVES

My life & times

My children’s life & times(perhaps grand children)

Third generationof children & beyond

in distant nations

THE PROPHETS

A

B

C

D

E

F

Utopias

Dystopias

SomewhereIn

Between

The Old World gives way to a New World thru Apocalyptic Events

THESIS

ANTITHESIS

SYNTHESIS

Scenarios of a desirable futureand the blessing of the gods

Scenarios of an undesirable futureand the curse of the gods

The reality of life somewherebetween the extremes

The First Futurologists used religious paradigms

THE SCIENCE OF FUTUROLOGYThe Goal1. Describe the future2. Explain the future3. Predict the future4. Control the future

Paradigms (Available Resources)1. Multidiscipline Science Observations2. Statistical Interpolation Databases3. Computer Modeling4. Educated Decision Making

The Product

1. There is a Best Possible World— Utopia 2. There is a Worst Possible World— Dystopia3. There is Somewhere in Between— Synthesis

Somewhere in between is the grey zone(the mixing of black and white, the worst & the best)

4. Achievement of priority goals5. Avoidance of worst case scenarios6. A future of our own choosing

A MULTI SCENARIO VISION OF THE FUTURE

THE END PRODUCTTHE END PRODUCT

THE PERSON

1.Childhood2.Young Adult3.Middle Adult4.Mature Adult

The Stages of LifeMorning Twilight

Noon

With each stage is a personIs presented with a task (a challenge).

Aspects of Life1. Health2. Wealth3. Relationships4. Vocation5. Re-Creation

CultureReligion

THE PERSON

Maslow’s Hierarchy of Need1. Physiology2. Safety3. Belonging4. Esteem (Achievement)5. Self Actualization

THE PERSON

The Person as IndividualIndividual MindIndividual BodyIndividual Spirit

The Person’s Support CommunityCommunity MindCommunity BodyCommunity Spirit

The Human CollectiveCollective MindCollective BodyCollective Spirit

Resources for the Challenges of Life

THE KARDASHEV SCALE

Type 0 Geographically Located CivilizationsType I Global Civilization

Planetary Energy Harnessed (c10^16W)

Type II Interplanetary CivilizationSolar Energy Harnessed (c10^26W)

Type III Interstellar CivilizationGalactic Energy Harnessed (c10^36W)

Type IV and beyond Intergalactic CivilizationType VType VIType VII

Where are we going?

Harnessing the Energy of Super-galactic Structures (c10^46W<)

THE CYCLE OF PROGRESS

See Hubbert’s Peak…

CRISIS CRISIS CRISIS

The Malthusian Tension: Moving through Crisis to Paradigm

THE SEQUENCE OF TECHNOLOGY

1. Need2. Invention/Discovery3. Technical Novelty4. Isolated Innovative use5. Social Integration and Reorientation6. Social Resistance7. Social Dependency

The introduction and progress of new technology follows a predictable sequence

RELATIONSHIPS

LOCAL REGIONAL NATIONAL INTERNAT’L GLOBAL BEYOND

Personal

Family

Community

Regional

National

International

Global

Beyond

Global

Regional

Local

National

Community

Family***

Human RightsEqual Opportunity

Economic EquitabilityCommunity Empowerment

Human RightsEqual Opportunity

Economic EquitabilityCommunity Empowerment

MARKET SHORTCOMINGS MANAGEMENT

Military-Industrial ComplexLegal-Media-Political ComplexAerospace-Technology ComplexAgribusiness-Subsidy ComplexMonopolistic Drive Complex

MARKET SHORTCOMINGS MANAGEMENT

Military-Industrial ComplexLegal-Media-Political ComplexAerospace-Technology ComplexAgribusiness-Subsidy ComplexMonopolistic Drive Complex

Gov’t representingthe will of the people of, by and for the people

Gov’t representingthe will of the people of, by and for the people

GLOBALIZED ECUMETROPITAN

MOSAIC

GLOBALIZED ECUMETROPITAN

MOSAICSpirit ofService

Religious & Cultural InstUniversities

Religious & Cultural InstUniversities

Socially Responsible BusinessPrivately Owned Enterprise

Publicly Owned CorporationsGlobally Regulated Internat’l Bus

Socially Responsible BusinessPrivately Owned Enterprise

Publicly Owned CorporationsGlobally Regulated Internat’l Bus

THE COMMUNITYA Person’s Place in

the Global Village

AIRAeroplaneRotorwingAeroship

SPACESpace PlaneSuborbital OrbitalLunar Interplanetary

LANDRail—People MoversRoad

OverlandTunneled

SEASurface shipSurface Action Craft Subsurface

EXPRESS LOCAL REG’L NAT’L INTERNAT’L GLOBAL BEYOND(Point to Point)

COMMUNICATIONPOWER DELIVERYTRANSPORTATION

Grids

THE NETWORK

MEGASCALE TRANSPORTING

A Transatlantic Tunnel

AggregateSupply

Over Time

AggregateSupply

Over Time

Aggregate Demand

Over Time

Technology increases aggregate supply tomeet growing demand

Q

U

A

N

T

I

T

Y

T I M E

The Challenge ofLimited Resources

VOCATION

Malthusian Projectionusing Hubbert’s Peak

Can technologyContinue an increase in supply,as rapidly as humans increase demand?

THE CHALLENGE

DetectionDiagnostics

Blood screeningBio-field scanningGene mapping

Biomedical InformationComputer modelingHealth Profiling

TreatmentOutpatientInpatient

HEALTH1

PreventionLife-style

DietExercise

Stress Inflamatories

Infectious Diseases

Accidental Injury

Healthcare ServicesEffectivenessAvailabilityAffordability

The average life expectancy for peoplein the US is 77, in Japan its 83, the world average is 63.

In the US, 80% of all healthcare dollarsare spent on end of life care …

The next greatest percentage is noninfectious, lifestyle illness care…

GREATEST

EFFECT

ON

HEALTH

H E A L T H C A R E S E R V I C E S

HUMAN GENERATIONS

1900 2000 2100 2200

1970 2050

1990 2075

2020 2110

2050 2145

2070 2170

2100 2200+

Life expectancywill Increase

Number of children/personwill decrease

Parent age attime of first child willincrease

Crop product variety expansionGenetic modification

Drought/pest resistantClimate/soil adapting

Weather ModificationLong range weather prediction

Improved MechanizationCrop health monitorsSoil quality sensorsElectronic pest controlRobotics

Enhanced IrrigationWater table mappingDesalination

Aquatic AgricultureOcean farming/managementHydroponics farming

Soil ScienceTop soil manufacturingMicromanaged fertilizationMicromanaged water delivery

Mega Farm districtsSoil ConservationLocal Temp/Humidity enhancementFarming Cooperatives

TRENDS IN AGRICULTURE

TRENDS IN BIOMEDICAL

GeneticNormalcy

Intervention Intervention

Genetic Engineering,at Genotypephenotypelevel…

Bioengineeringfor prosthetics, organ, gland enhancement,physio-automat’n& metabolic replication

Tissue cloningFor grafting, replacement,and transplant,

Improved revival& resuscitation technologies

SurgeryRemote Particle beam & LaserPrecision Directed radiationAutomated Micro managed drug deliver

Nutrition ScienceDiet Fabricat’nOrganicSynthetic

HEALTH2

COMMUNITY/URBAN ARCHITECTURE

Tiered living Sky City

Sky Scrapers

Multi-storied

Ground Level

Underground

Subunderground

Below Subunderground

Wired

Wireless

CITIES1 (wealth & safety)

Tiered living

Sky Cities

Sky Scrapers

Multi-storied

Ground Level

Underground

Subunderground

Below Subunderground

UnderGroundCableOptics

Wireless

Orbital Projection

Aeroship Projection

Laser Projection

COMMUNITY/URBAN ARCHITECTURE

Laser Projection

CITIES2

SKY CITIES

OceanopolisIsland CitiesFloating CitiesSurfaceSubsurface

CITIES3

UrbanGreater UrbanMetropolisMegalopolisEcumenopolisPopulation Grid

WildernessNature Preserve

ResourcesWildlifeCarbon Sink

AgriculturalPark-RecreationUndesignated Mixed

CITIES4

ARTIFICIAL ISLANDS

UNDERSEA HABITATS

AND CITIES

(Re-creation)

1. The Conservative Approacha. Prioritizes stabilityb. Resists changes which may undermines stability

2. The Progressive Approacha. Prioritizes an idealb. Advocates for changes that may lead to ideal

3. Attitudesa. Militants—”Conservative Reactionaries” b. Radicals—”Leftist Liberals” c. Middle of the Roads—”Passionless Jelly Bellies”

SOCIO—POLITICAL AGENDAS

SELF ACTUALIZATION & VALUES CLARIFICATION

REACHING A TYPE 1 CIVILIZATION

* Biomass Fuels Type 0Agricultural Revolution

Functioning Civilization

* Fossil Fuels Type 0.5 Industrial Revolution (coal)

Hyper Industrial (Petroleum, Natural Gas)

* Non Sustainable Alternative Fuels Type 0.7Post Industrial, Service EconomyNuclear Fission FuelsHydro Electric ConversionGeo-Thermal Conversion

* Globally Sustainable Energy Type 1.0Eco-Industrial, Recyclable EconomyNuclear FusionSolar Energy ConversionWind Energy Conversion

Chemical Reaction Based

Non-Chemical Reaction Based,Non-renewable Energy

Waste Free,Renewable Energy

Open Fire, ‘Beast of Burden’

Harnessing the Energy of a Planet

MEGASCALE ENERGY

CLIMATE ENGINEERING

PERMANENT MOON STATIONA transfer point for interplanetary transports

PROJECT CONSTELLATION:

+

++

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

Population12-15 Billion

& holding

Australian Outback

Saharan Outback

North Am West

Siberian OutbackCentral Asian Outback

W Pacific Habitats

Mega Scaled Terraforming Projects (7)GEN Grid—GTN RailWorld Heritage Preservation Areas (7)Central Desert Energy Zones (4)

Space Ports (11)

Pacific Habitats

THE WORLD1

Suborbital

Synchronous Orbit

Sub-Synchronous Orbit

Halo-Synchronous Orbit

Real Time IntegratedSatellite Constellations

Real Time IntegratedSuborbital LTA Fleets

Lunar Express

Real time synchronizedEarth Systems Watch…

THE WORLD2

REACHING FOR ATYPE 2 CIVILIZATION

ROBONAUTS

Harnessing the Energy of a Star

SPACE ELEVATOR

Present cost to launch = $10,000 / lbDesired cost to launch < $ 1,000 / lb Air Travel cost < $ 200 / lb

Venus

Earth

Mars

Jupiter (61)

Saturn (48)

Uranus (14)

Neptune (28)

Centaur Belt

Kuiper Belt PlutoQuaoarSednaXenaOthers

40 AU’s3.72E+09 mi@25k mph (0.04%c) 160,000 hrs@65m mph (10%c) 61hrs

Alpha Centauri280,645 AU’s

Asteroid Belt

THE SOLAR SYSTEM

Concentration of resources, (e.g. metal content to waste ratio) is >10 to 100 times that of earth. Technology can

make resource extraction from space cost effective.

Why go into space?

Solar Panel Arrayfor Climate ControlEnergy Conversion

MEGASCALE CLIMATE

ENGINEERINGFleet of >100,000 Solar Panels

for Climate Control andEnergy Conversion

REACHING FOR A TYPE 3 CIVILIZATION

Project Orion: Interstellar ProbesSpeed of present orbital (s)= 0.004% cSpeed for interstellar probe= 10.0% c

Harnessing the Energy of a Galaxy

Currently we have the following to invest1. 6,000 Bn Tons of Atmosphere2. 100 Bn km^3 of water3. 150 Mn km^2 of land4. 75,000 Quads of energy (non-renewable)5. 6.5 Bn people

These need to propel us into a future where1. First 100 thousand years was 50 Bn human lives2. Next 100 years will have another 50 Bn human lives3. Average Global calories/day was = 10004. Desired calories/day will be = c 20005. Quads of energy used today = c4126. Quads consumed by 2100 = 1600+7. Total population= c. 12 Bn people

THE CHALLENGE

Science can tell us the what will happen for each scenario we create.It is we who must chose what scenario we wish to pursue…

Current rate of consumptionexceeds Earth System capacity for regeneration

Future rate of consumption isless than or equal toearth System regeneration capacity