a cliometrics’ view on the garzoni database
TRANSCRIPT
A Cliometrics’ view on the Garzoni database
Annual Meeting of the Renaissance Society of America, Boston, April 2016
Giovanni ColavizzaEPFL
Slides: http://www.slideshare.net/GiovanniColavizza/a-‐cliometrics-‐view-‐on-‐the-‐garzoni-‐database
Cliometrics, or New Economic History, engages the study of the past with the help of deductive models, “with the aim of establishing the interaction between variables in a given situation in mathematical form.” (Diebolt and Haupert 2015)
It has a “focus on institutions as carriers of economic structures across generations and sometimes centuries. The other is the focus on causality through imaginative use of identification strategies.” (Temin 2015)
Slides: http://www.slideshare.net/GiovanniColavizza/a-‐cliometrics-‐view-‐on-‐the-‐garzoni-‐database
Cliometrics
Sources:Diebolt, C. and Haupert, M. (2015) Handbook of Cliometrics. Springer.
Indroduction to..Temin, P. Economic History and Economic Development: New Economic History in
Retrospect and Prospect
Questions:
1-‐ Are contracts of apprenticeship following known trends in Venetian economy?2-‐ What were apprentices doing in the workshop? Was there knowledge transfer, only unskilled labor or a mix of both?
Goal of this paper: exemplify quantitative reasoning to investigate the Garzoni data
Slides: http://www.slideshare.net/GiovanniColavizza/a-‐cliometrics-‐view-‐on-‐the-‐garzoni-‐database
DataN
umbe
r of c
ontra
cts
1580
1600
1620
1640
1660
010
020
030
040
0
Years
All
With salary 3687 contracts from 3 periods
Selection of professions by economic sector (e.g. book sector is in, textiles are out, for now)
Slides: http://www.slideshare.net/GiovanniColavizza/a-‐cliometrics-‐view-‐on-‐the-‐garzoni-‐database
Data
Sources:
A total of 11563 contracts have been recorded into the database, all sampled form ASVe, Giustizia Vecchia, Accordi dei Garzoni, registers 151 to 177. Of these contracts, a final subset of 3687 double-‐checked contracts is retained for the present study: the full contents of registers 152, 153, 157, 158, 163, 164, 169, 170. Professions were filtered according to a given list of economic sectors. Importantly, the textile sector is not currently considered.
Credit to Davide Drago, Andrea Erboso, Marianna Volpin and Francesca Zugno for data collection.
Slides: http://www.slideshare.net/GiovanniColavizza/a-‐cliometrics-‐view-‐on-‐the-‐garzoni-‐database
A proxy for Venetian Economy
1-‐ Venetian economy becoming increasingly more introvert during the XVII century (Lanaro 2008)
2-‐ Crisis of whole sectors, e.g. the Venetian printing press (Infelise 1997)
XVII century long-‐lasting debate: Crisis (Cipolla, Pullan, Romano) or Change/Reorganization? (Rapp, Sella)
Slides: http://www.slideshare.net/GiovanniColavizza/a-‐cliometrics-‐view-‐on-‐the-‐garzoni-‐database
A proxy for Venetian Economy
References:
Cipolla, C. M. “The decline of Italy: the case of a fully matured economy”. Economic History Review V(II). 1952.Infelise, M. “La crise de la librairie vénitienne, 1620-‐1650”. Frédéric Barbier et al. (eds.) Le livre et l’historien. 1997.Lanaro, P. “Corporations et confréries: les étrangers et la marché du travail à Venise (XV-‐XVIII)”. Histoire Urbaine 21(1). 2008.Pullan, B. (ed.) Crisis and Change in Venetian Economy. 1968.Rapp, R. T. Industry and Economic Change in Seventeenth Century Venice. 1976.Romano, R. “L’Italia nella crisi del XVII secolo”. Studi Storici IX. 1968.Sella, D. Italy in the Seventeenth Century. 1997.
Slides: http://www.slideshare.net/GiovanniColavizza/a-‐cliometrics-‐view-‐on-‐the-‐garzoni-‐database
Variety of ProfessionsM
arze
rM
aran
gon
Ore
seTa
giap
iera
Spe
chie
rM
urer
Sta
mpa
dor,
Com
posi
tor
Sta
mpa
dor,
Torc
oler
Tira
oro
Indo
rado
r
Period 1
Freq
uenc
y0
400
800
0%50
%10
0%
Spe
chie
rO
rese
Mar
zer
Mar
ango
nTi
raor
oM
urer
Cuo
ri d'
oro
Tagi
apie
raM
aran
gon
da c
asse
Mar
zer,
Stri
nghe
r
Period 2
020
040
060
080
0
0%25
%75
%
Spe
chie
rO
rese
Dal
le p
erle
fals
eM
arze
rTi
raor
oTa
giap
iera
Mar
ango
nM
urer
Mar
ango
n da
cas
se d
a sp
ecch
iB
atio
ro
Period 3
020
060
0
0%50
%10
0%C
umul
ativ
e Pe
rcen
tage
Slides: http://www.slideshare.net/GiovanniColavizza/a-‐cliometrics-‐view-‐on-‐the-‐garzoni-‐database
Variety of Professions
Period 1
Freq
uenc
y
050
010
0015
00
0%25
%50
%75
%10
0%
Period 2
020
040
060
080
010
00
0%25
%50
%75
%10
0%
Period 3
020
040
060
080
010
00
0%25
%50
%75
%10
0%C
umul
ativ
e Pe
rcen
tage
Slides: http://www.slideshare.net/GiovanniColavizza/a-‐cliometrics-‐view-‐on-‐the-‐garzoni-‐database
The Printing PressN
umbe
r of c
ontra
cts
1580 1600 1620 1640 1660
010
020
030
040
0
Years
All
Print sector
Slides: http://www.slideshare.net/GiovanniColavizza/a-‐cliometrics-‐view-‐on-‐the-‐garzoni-‐database
The Printing PressN
umbe
r of c
ontra
cts
1580 1600 1620 1640 1660
010
020
030
040
0
Years
All
Printers
Booksellers and Paper makers
Slides: http://www.slideshare.net/GiovanniColavizza/a-‐cliometrics-‐view-‐on-‐the-‐garzoni-‐database
Descriptive Statistics
Slides: http://www.slideshare.net/GiovanniColavizza/a-‐cliometrics-‐view-‐on-‐the-‐garzoni-‐database
A proxy for Venetian Economy
-‐ Reduction in variety of professions-‐ Increasingly more venetians as apprentices-‐ Crisis of whole sectors such as the printing press confirmed only in part
Slides: http://www.slideshare.net/GiovanniColavizza/a-‐cliometrics-‐view-‐on-‐the-‐garzoni-‐database
Questions:
1-‐ Are contracts of apprenticeship following known trends in Venetian economy?2-‐ What were apprentices doing in the workshop? Was there knowledge transfer, only unskilled labor or a mix of both?
Slides: http://www.slideshare.net/GiovanniColavizza/a-‐cliometrics-‐view-‐on-‐the-‐garzoni-‐database
On the “uses” of apprentices
1-‐ Guilds and apprenticeships as essential to knowledge transfer and security for youths (Epstein 1998)
2-‐ Guilds as essentially parasitic institutions, exploiting a monopolistic position to extract premiums and preferential advantages to relatives. Knowledge transfer secondary, apprenticeship potentially exploitative (Ogilvie 2014)
Slides: http://www.slideshare.net/GiovanniColavizza/a-‐cliometrics-‐view-‐on-‐the-‐garzoni-‐database
On the “uses” of apprentices
References:
Epstein, S. R. “Craft Guilds, Apprenticeship and Technological Change in Preindustrial Europe”. The Journal of Economic History 58(3). 1998.Ogilvie, S. “The Economics of Guilds”. The Journal of Economic Perspectives 28(4). 2014.
Slides: http://www.slideshare.net/GiovanniColavizza/a-‐cliometrics-‐view-‐on-‐the-‐garzoni-‐database
Descriptive Statistics -‐ 2
24% of Venetians, on average, did not get a salary (only 11% among non-‐Venetians)
Slides: http://www.slideshare.net/GiovanniColavizza/a-‐cliometrics-‐view-‐on-‐the-‐garzoni-‐database
Duality of apprenticeships in Venice
A possible duality emerges:1-‐ circa 80% of apprentices were getting a salary, most of these paid at the end of the contract2-‐ circa 20% of apprentices got no salary, or paid their master in turnVenetians preferred not to be paid..
Let’s assume there is a good reason, and the duality might be due to:1-‐ apprentices acting mostly as unskilled labor force2-‐ apprentices getting training
Slides: http://www.slideshare.net/GiovanniColavizza/a-‐cliometrics-‐view-‐on-‐the-‐garzoni-‐database
Duality of apprenticeships in Venice
Let’s assume there is a good reason: 1-‐ apprentices acting mostly as unskilled labor force2-‐ apprentices mostly getting training
How to check this hypothesis?Take the 80%, group 1, and look for market mechanics in salaries, not linked to previous experience in the profession
Slides: http://www.slideshare.net/GiovanniColavizza/a-‐cliometrics-‐view-‐on-‐the-‐garzoni-‐database
Regressions
From: http://www.biostathandbook.com/
Slides: http://www.slideshare.net/GiovanniColavizza/a-‐cliometrics-‐view-‐on-‐the-‐garzoni-‐database
Regressions
Venetian (yes = 1) -0.018 -0.262 -0.177 0.361
(0.202) (0.302) (0.359) (0.380)
Year 0.013*** 0.008 -0.071 -0.114
(0.003) (0.019) (0.067) (0.096)
Length of contract -1.349*** -1.072*** -1.078*** -2.002***
(0.072) (0.102) (0.127) (0.155)
Age of apprentice 0.307*** 0.439*** 0.255*** 0.254***
(0.037) (0.058) (0.057) (0.076)
Father (not alive = 1) -0.046 -0.209 0.247 -0.152
(0.187) (0.279) (0.305) (0.372)
Annual Salary as dependent variable. Periods: All, 1, 2, 3.
Slides: http://www.slideshare.net/GiovanniColavizza/a-‐cliometrics-‐view-‐on-‐the-‐garzoni-‐database
Professional profilesD
ensi
ty
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
0.0
0.2
0.4
Stampador, Compositor
0 5 10 15 20
0.0
0.2
0.4
0 5 10 15 20
0.0
0.2
0.4
Age
Den
sity
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
0.0
0.2
0.4
Stampador, Torcoler
Annual salary
0 5 10 15 20
0.0
0.2
0.4
Length of contracts (in years)
0 5 10 15 20
0.0
0.2
0.4
Slides: http://www.slideshare.net/GiovanniColavizza/a-‐cliometrics-‐view-‐on-‐the-‐garzoni-‐database
Professional profilesD
ensi
ty
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
0.0
0.2
0.4
Marangon
0 5 10 15 20
0.0
0.2
0.4
0 5 10 15 20
0.0
0.2
0.4
Age
Den
sity
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
0.0
0.2
0.4
Tagiapiera
Annual salary
0 5 10 15 20
0.0
0.2
0.4
Length of contracts (in years)
0 5 10 15 20
0.0
0.2
0.4
Slides: http://www.slideshare.net/GiovanniColavizza/a-‐cliometrics-‐view-‐on-‐the-‐garzoni-‐database
Duality of apprenticeships in Venice
Preliminary conclusions:
1-‐ Salaries determined by factors exogenous to previous experience in the profession (age, duration of contract)
2-‐ Different professions had different apprentice profiles, but similar motivations might be involved (e.g. physical fitness)
Slides: http://www.slideshare.net/GiovanniColavizza/a-‐cliometrics-‐view-‐on-‐the-‐garzoni-‐database
Conclusions
Apprenticeships good proxy of Venetian economy
Interesting underlying mechanics: duality of salaries, determinants of salaries and professional profiles
More to come as the project develops..
Slides: http://www.slideshare.net/GiovanniColavizza/a-‐cliometrics-‐view-‐on-‐the-‐garzoni-‐database
Giovanni ColavizzaEPFL
Thank you
Annual Meeting of the Renaissance Society of America, Boston, April 2016