A Dynamic Air Pollution Prediction System

DAPPSMark Zunckel & Eugene Cairncross

CSIR

Pen Technikon

SAWS

SRK

Innovation Fund

Dept Arts, Culture, Science & Technology Call for consortia South African partners Large projects, e.g. 3-years Contribution in specified key areas, e.g.

biotechnology, technology & information

Air Quality Management

Sources

ChemistryTransportDepositionDispersion

Ambient concentrationsModeling or monitoring

Receptor impact

Management Intervention

Air Quality Monitoring

Site specific Selected pollutants Accurate Continuous Expensive Can be integrated

with modelling

Air Quality Modelling Spatially continuous A range of pollutants Estimation of

concentrations Average

concentrations Cost effective Integrated with

monitoring 150.00 200.00 250.00 300.00 350.00 400.00 450.00

4600.00

4650.00

4700.00

4750.00

4800.00

4850.00

4900.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

DAPPS

Sources: Compile a comprehensive emissions inventory

Meteorology: SAWS forecast fields Dispersion: Photochemical dispersion model Receptors: Spatially resolved grid Forecast map of air pollution data and indicators Information to manage air quality

The output, an example..

HighMedium

Communicating the forecast

Air pollution data and indicators Map of an area with a number scale or

color scale indicating potential health risk Interactive web site, updated ever 24

hours Daily newspaper? Other methods?

What DAPPS will not do!

DAPPS will have limitations Quality of input data Uncertainty in meteorological predictions Assumptions in dispersion model Spatial resolution

Scenario modelling DAPPS cannot manage air quality

Validation of the system

Meteorological forecast On going validation at SAWS Source model Point sources Mobile sources Domestic sources Dispersion model Comparison of estimations with monitored data

Project structure

3 year research & development project

Number of specialist components to be developed and integrated with one another

Maintain a two-way communications with a number of stakeholders

Project Plan

Year 1: Project launch, components of DAPPS system running independently

Year 2: Integration of the components Year 3: DAPPS running in test location Stakeholder involvement throughout the

development

Why Cape Town?

Potential sites: Durban (SIB) Richards Bay PE/Coega Cape Metro Vaal Triangle Platinum Area Pietermaritzburg

Criteria for selection: Stakeholders buy-in Data availability Digital information Issue (s) Range of source types History /other work Isolation from sources Local by-laws Running costs Complex meteorology

Conclusion

We believe that we can develop a system to assist in the management of air quality & CMC is our prefered development site

To make it happen, we need: Your buy-in as key stakeholders, Your input now to help specify the outputs of the

system; to influence the design of the system, Your input throughout the system development.