a fragmenting europe in a changing worldc23388e2-b495-49ae...swiss re / eeag / kof 20.03.2019...
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A Fragmenting Europe
in a Changing World
EEAG Report on the European Economy 2019
Torben Andersen,
Giuseppe Bertola,
John Driffill,
Clemens Fuest,
Harold James,
Jan-Egbert Sturm,
Branko Uroševic
20.03.2019Swiss Re / EEAG / KOF 2
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100
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Global Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) is calculated as the GDP-weighted average of monthly EPU index values for the United States, Canada, Brazil, Chile, the United Kingdom, Germany, Italy, Spain, France, Netherlands, Russia, India, China, South Korea, Japan, Ireland and Australia using GDP data in current prices from the IMF World Economic Outlook Database.
Source: Baker et al. (2016), www.policyuncertainty.com; last accessed on 3 February 2019.
Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index
Index (2007 = 100)
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Global financial
crisis
Euro area crisis, US fiscal fights,
China leadershiptransition
Europeanimmigration
crisis
Brexit vote
US elections
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2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Source: IMF International Financial Statistics; CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis;last accessed on 15 March 2019. © CESifo
World Economic Growtha and Growth in Industrial Production
a Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) weighted aggregate year -over-year real GDP growth rate.
Real GDP growth
%in Change over previous year's quarter
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Growth in real industrial production
Change over previous year's month in %
20.03.2019Swiss Re / EEAG / KOF 4Source: CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis; last accessed on 15 March 2019; EEAG calculations.
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
Emerging and developing countries
Advanced economies3-month moving average level
Index (2010 Q1 = 100)annualised monthly growth
in %-points
World trade
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2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Europe Americas Oceania Asia Africa World
Source: ifo World Economic Survey I/2019.
ifo World Economic SurveyEconomic expectations for the next 6 months
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Worse
Better
About thesame
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-10
-9
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Japan United Kingdom United States Euro area China
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, November 2018; last accessed on 3 February
Government Structural Budget Balances
% of trend GDP
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Forecastperiod
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2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Euro area United Kingdom United States Japan
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis; Eurostat; ESRI; National Bureau of Statistics of China; last accessed on 3 February 2019; EEAG forecast.
Economic Growth by RegionReal GDP percentage change from previous year
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5%
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5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
China (right-hand scale)
%
Forecast period
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00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, IMF International Financial Statistics; last accessed on 3 February 2019.
Output gap
Deviation from potential in %
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Output Gap and Inflation in Advanced Economies
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5Change over previous year's month in %
Inflation
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-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Source: IMF International Financial Statistics; last accessed on 3 February 2019; EEAG calculations.
%
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Inflation in the World and Oil Price MovementsChange overprevious year's month in %
Forecast
period
Forecast based on the assumption that oil prices remain steady from January 2018 onwards.
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140%
-DollarsOil price changes in USInflation in the worldInflation in the euro area
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-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Construction Consumers IndustryRetail trade (Non-fin.) services Financial services
? Arithmetic means of selected (seasonally adjusted) balances on business and consumer tendency survey questions. Balances are the differences between the percentages of positive and negative replies. These are subsequently normalisedto have an average of 0 and variance of 1 for the period from 1985 onward. Source: European Commission; last accessed on 3February 2019; EEAG calculations.
Confidence Indicatorsª for Different Sectors in the European Union
Standardised balance
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-2
-1
0
1
2
3
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
External balance Changes in inventories
Gross fixed capital formation Government consumption
Private consumption GDP growth
Forecast
period
Demand Contributions to GDP Growth in the European Union a
Source: Eurostat; last accessed on 3 February 2019; EEAG calculations and forecast.
%
a Gross domestic product at market prices (prices of the previous year). Annual percentage change.
© CESifo
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3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
European Union Euro area United Kingdom
Source: Eurostat; last accessed on 3February 2019; EEAG calculations and forecast.
Unemployment Rates in the Euro Area, the United Kingdom and the European Union
%
© CESifo
Forecast period
A Fragmenting Europe
in a Changing World
EEAG Report on the European Economy 2019
Torben Andersen,
Giuseppe Bertola,
John Driffill,
Clemens Fuest,
Harold James,
Jan-Egbert Sturm,
Branko Uroševic
20.03.2019Swiss Re / EEAG / KOF 14
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Latin America and Russia Asia North America
Western and Central Europe World GDP Growth
Forecastperiod
Regional Contributions to World GDP Growth a
a Based on market weights.Source: National statistical offices; EEAG calculations and forecast.
%
© CESifo
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