a global analysis of biomass supply and demand 2011 to … · · 2015-08-07a global analysis of...

nova-Institute www.bio-based.eu– 1 –

A global analysis of biomass supply

and demand – 2011 to 2050

Michael Carus, Dr. Stephan Piotrowski and Roland Essel

nova-Institut GmbH, Hürth (Cologne), Germany


nova-Institut GmbH – SME

Revenue shares

Since over 20 years in bio-based economy

private and independent research institute


2011:

• Biomass supply by type in tonnes dry matter

• Biomass demand by sectors

• Challenge is matching both! Nobody did this before!

Scenarios for supply and demand in 2050

• Simple calculation model

• Solid and confirmed (and transparent) data and assumptions

• Based on 100 parameters on supply and demand

• We show here results for scenarios from three German

ministries:

“Which areas and biomasses will be sustainably available for

biofuels in the year 2050, when all area competition for food,

feed, material use and also other forms of bioenergy (heat and

power) are taken into account ”

• But: We can easily model YOUR scenarios!!

Methodology


Raw material demand of mankind

100%

material

ca. 7%

material

100%

material

ca. 10%

material

Quelle: Dittrich et al. 2012


Total biomass (2011)

• In total, global biomass supply amounted to about 12 bln tdm in 2011:

Global biomass supply 2011


Feedstock of the

Chemical Industry

D 2011

in 1,000 t

D 2011

in %

EU 2011

in 1,000 t

EU 2011

in %

World

2010

In Million t

World

2010

in %

Total 21,419 100% 90,310 100% 590 100%

Mineral Oil derivatives 15,200 71% 61,210 68% 400 68%

Natural Gas 3,000 14% 19,200 21% 125 21%

Coal 500 2% 1,340 1% 6 1%

Renewables 2,719 13% 8,560 9% 59 10%

- Vegetable Oils 1,000 37% 1,570 18% 14 24%

- Animal Fats 210 8% 500 6% 4 7%

- Chemical Pulp 401 15% 890 10% 4 7%

- Starch 187 7%

1,560 18% 8.6 15%- Sugar 60 2%

- Bioethanol (Starch eq) 87 3%1,590 19% 8.8 15%

- Bioethanol (Sugar eq) 44 2%

- Natural Rubber 270 10% 1,240 14% 11 19%

- Glycerol 171 6% 470 5% 3 5%

- Others (*) 289 11% 740 9% 5 8%

-- Proteins 139 5%

Use of biomass in the Chemical Industry

Quellen: Schmitz et al. 2014, VCI 2013, CEFIC 2014, OPEC 2013, nova 2014


Biomass supply scenarios for 2050

For the German ministries we developed three biomass supply

scenarios for the year 2050:

o Low: Very moderate development in terms of agricultural

intensification and land use changes

o BAU: “Business-as-usual”, in principle an extrapolation

of current trends

o High: Demand-driven, very high intensification of agriculture

and concurrent land use changes, incl. more intensive

forestry and expansion of planted forests.

o We can model any different scenario easily too!


Biomass demand scenarios for 2050

For the German ministries we develop three biomass demand

scenarios for the year 2050:

o BAU: “Business-as-usual”, in principle an

extrapolation of current trends

o Bio-based: As BAU, but with stronger demand growth

for the material use of biomass

o Bio-based high: As bio-based, but with very high demand for

biomass in the chemical industry

In all scenarios we assumed the following “Compound Annual

Growth Rates”:

Chemical and plastics industry: CAGR = 3.5%

Textile industry: CAGR = 3%

Energy/fuels: CAGR = 1.5%


www.bio-based.eu/markets


World

With growing agricultural land, increasing plantation forest, growth in yields and higher MCI, the

supply of biomass in the BAU scenario in 2050 compared to 2011 can be almost doubled - in the

high scenario even more than twice.

In the Low scenario in which there is no expansion of arable land and hardly yield increases, the

biomass supply in 2050 around the same level as in 2011.

Demand is growing in the material sector with an average of 2-4% more than in the energy

sector with about 1% - means that the proportion of use of material will grow in the

petrochemical and bio-economy (oil: from today 5-10% to 20-30% in 2050).

In the scenarios BAU and "bio-based", the total demand for food, feed, material and energy can

be covered and biofuels can expand too. In the supply-scenario "low" biomass, however is only

enough for food and feed.

The demand scenario "bio-based high" it comes to competition between chemistry (and other

material sectors) and biofuel on biomass.

Results and messages


Your assumptions will be different!

nova-Institute offers

Ministries, Associations, NGO and companies to

• Develop their own assumptions based on 100 parameters on

supply and demand until 2050.

• The calculated scenarios and the interpretation of the results will

show in detail the impacts of the assumptions.

• The procedure starts with an one day workshop to understand

the 100 parameters, which are mainly influence our bio-based

future on our planet. Also very new developments can be

covered.

• If you are interested, please send me an email:

[email protected]


• Text

o More text

Even more text

Title


Headline

a global analysis of biomass supply and demand 2011 to … · · 2015-08-07a global analysis of...

Documents