a global battery revolution - focus graphite inc....7gwh* $500m* nanjing, china lithium-ion 2015...
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A global battery revolution How EVs & utilities can shape a new era in critical minerals & metals demand
Simon Moores, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, UKBenchmarkMinerals.com / [email protected]
What is Benchmark?
• Beta web site now live: benchmarkminerals.com
• Critical mineral and metals intelligence
• Providing high value data and analysis through consultancy services
• Q1 2015: Web site launch
Focus: Minerals and Metals that are driving the new hi-tech revolution and battery
economy
Four focal points of the company
Prices
Data
Analysis
Forecasts
• Accurate, first hand market price data • Collected in-house, by Benchmark • Unique data sets detailing many grades
• Production data by country and company • Resource and Reserves data • Collected in-house by Benchmark from the market
• Expert, independent analysis• Supply, demand and price trends
• Short, medium and long term forecasts• Forecasts using proprietary data • Supply, demand and prices
1969 Late-1990s 2006 2007 2010
Watches
Cell phones
Laptops
Smartphones
Tablets
1969 Late-1990s 2006 2007 2010
Source: Benchmark Mineral Intelligence
Timeline: Battery commercialisation
1969 Late-1990s 2006 2007 2010
Watches Cars
Cell phones Power tools Personal music
SmartphonesTabletsLaptops Hybrid cars
1969-1990 Late-1990s 2006-2016 2017 onwards
Source: Benchmark Mineral Intelligence
Timeline: Battery commercialisation
Full Electric vehiclesUtility/Stationary storage
Lithium-ion / NiMH Lithium-ion
I II III IV
NiMH/Lithium-ionMercuryLead acid
BenchmarkMinerals.com
What is a battery made of?
Anode Separator Cathode
Carbon• Natural flake
(spherical)• Synthetic • Hard carbon• Soft carbon• MCMB
Lithium chemicalsNickelCadmium Phosphate Cobalt Manganese
And more
Polymer films
Source: Benchmark Mineral Intelligence
BenchmarkMinerals.com
iPhone 6 & 6L
• 19g of natural spherical graphite*• 13g of lithium chemicals • Bigger battery • 30-50m units sold every Q• 10m iPhone 6 sold first weekend
• Birth of the mobile era, Pioneered by Apple
• 2001: iPod • 2007: iPhone• 2010: iPad • 2015: Watch
1. Introduction of a disruptive technology (2007)
BenchmarkMinerals.com
2. Bigger batteries
Battery Size
Graphite
Year
5.4Wh 6.9Wh 11.1Wh
9g 12g 19g
2012 2014 2014Source: Benchmark Mineral Intelligence
BenchmarkMinerals.com
Samsung – small sized lithium-ion applications in 2014
Source: Samsung SDI
Electric vehicles | The tipping point?
• Started in the wake of global financial crisis• Nissan LEAF, first true commercial-scale EV• Emergence of Tesla Motors • “The world’s most important automaker” –
Morgan Stanley, 2014
Nissan LEAF58%
Tesla Model S28%
Ford Focus BEV4%
Others10%
Tesla Model S | The iPhone affect?
The breakthrough to the mainstream?
Bigger batteries to predecessors
Technology designed around the battery
Raw material consumption in EVs
Tesla Motors: Graphite*
60-80kg
2008: Roadster
~100kg~130kg
2013: Model S (small) 2013: Model S (large)
Source: Benchmark Mineral Intelligence *Benchmark estimates
Raw material consumption in EVs
Nissan: Graphite
~40kg
2010: LEAF
~60kg*~80kg*
2017: LEAF II 2017: LEAF II
Source: Benchmark Mineral Intelligence *Benchmark estimates / 2017 Images: Auto Express concept
Raw material consumption in EVs
Chevrolet: Graphite (Plug-in hybrid EV)
~25-27kg
2011: Volt
~30kg
2015: Volt II 2017: LEAF II
Source: Benchmark Mineral Intelligence *Benchmark estimates / 2017 Images: Auto Express concept
~40kg
BenchmarkMinerals.com
35GWh $5bn Nevada, USA Lithium-ion 2016
7GWh* $500m* Nanjing, China Lithium-ion 2015
15GWh* $810m* Anhui, China Lithium-ion 2016
*Benchmark Estimates, not disclosed by company
Source: Benchmark Mineral Intelligence
The Megafactories are coming
Gigafactory raw material demand (at capacity)
0%20%40%60%80%
100%120%140%160%
Flake graphite Lithium Cobalt
Battery grade increases on 2013 (%)
Source: Benchmark Mineral Intelligence
Utilities
Tesla Motors EV sales: past, present and future
Source: Benchmark Mineral Intelligence
Utility storage: Drivers
• Security – Back up power • New York City: 2 x blackouts in under 10 years• Problems with the national grid
• Reducing the stress of peak load • Modernising the national grid to meet modern needs• Smoothing out the peaks and troughs
Utilities: mainstream battery options
Lithium-ion • Leading technology • More supply on the market• More supply coming = megafactories• Graphite anode
Vanadium-flow • Better theoretical tech for longer duration• Not as abundant • Less developed than lithium-ion • Graphite anode
Utility: Demand Scenarios If you thought predicting EVs were hazardous, utility is a different ball game
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2014 Navigant (2022) IHS (2024)
Grid connected battery storage: GWh
BenchmarkMinerals.com
What is a battery made of?
• A collection of speciality minerals and metals• Not commodities • Commodities = off the shelf• Speciality minerals / metals = tailored
Anode Separator Cathode
Carbon• Natural flake
(spherical)• Synthetic • Hard carbon• Soft carbon• MCMB
Lithium chemicalsNickelCadmium Phosphate Cobalt Manganese
And more
Polymer films
Source: Benchmark Mineral Intelligence
Political will…
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