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A just transition to a low-carbon economyImplications for IMPACT and its members
Drafted with support from
A just transition to a low-carbon economyImplications for IMPACT and its members
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSIMPACT would like to thank Sinéad Mercier for the substantial impetus,
input and direction she provided to this project. We would also like to thank ourmany members who provided feedback on the report and attended
workshops, in particular Kevin Kelleher, EPA.
Executive summary ..............................................................................5
The danger posed by climate change ................................................8
Ireland’s commitments ......................................................................10
Emissions trends and measures to reduce emissions......................12
Sectoral progress and challenges ....................................................15
A just transition to a low-carbon economy ......................................17
Ensuring a just transition in Ireland..................................................20
Implications for IMPACT and the public sector ................................23
Conclusions ........................................................................................26
Appendix ............................................................................................27
Contents
What is a just transition?
A just transition is an approach to deep decarbonisation that requires a fair distribution of the costs and benefits of low-carbon
transition and climate policies across the economy.
It is based on an acceptance that the transition towards a low-carboneconomy must be fair, and must maximise opportunities for economic
prosperity, social justice, rights and social protection for all.
It requires a strong focus on the social and jobs dimensions of low-carbondevelopment in policy formulation, and in the design of incentives.
4
he danger of climate changeClimate change is perhaps the greatest challenge facing humanity in the 21st century. Record breaking global temperaturesin 2014, 2015, and again in 2016, have led to an unprecedented series of extreme weather events that scientists have linkedto a changing climate. The impact is already acute in vulnerable regions. According to UNICEF, in Ethiopia alone almost halfa million children were treated for acute malnutrition arising from changes to the rainy seasons linked to climate change in2016.
Scientific projections suggest that if we do not act, these impacts will become increasingly severe, pervasive and irreversiblein a rapidly warming world, with devastating consequences. Ireland will become more susceptible to flooding from sea levelrise and extreme weather events, and is highly vulnerable to indirect global impacts such as war, migration and food priceinstability.
Diagnosing the lack of progressFor this reason, transition to a low-carbon economy is a policy imperative. Ireland is subject to very challenging EU andinternational policy objectives. While some measures have successfully been brought forward, overall decarbonisation hasfallen well behind what is required. Substantial fines await if Ireland cannot bridge the gap between what is required andwhat has been delivered.
A key problem we face is that climate policy is evaluated primarily for its environmental and economic implications. The socialaspects have received insufficient attention. This in turn has resulted in the mobilisation of local communities and somecohorts in society in opposition to policies and aspects of low-carbon development. Ireland’s slow decarbonisation progresscan partly be attributed to this opposition. Stakeholders and communities have acted to defend their interests when measuresare seen to negatively impact their particular cohort or region; in some cases, opposition has come from working peoplewho are afraid of losing their jobs or part of their income. It is an understandable fear.
The good news is that decarbonisation can be a win-win-win for Irish society, the economy and the environment. It hasthe potential to modernise the economy, to spur resource efficiency, to build resilience to energy shocks, to create jobs, andmost importantly, to drive sustainable economic development in rural and disadvantaged regions.
Calling for a just transitionSignificant periods of economic restructuring in the past have often happened in a chaotic fashion, leaving ordinary workers,their families and communities to bear the brunt of the transition to new ways of producing wealth. Within this context,IMPACT calls for a just transition framework to be applied to Ireland’s low-carbon development.
5
Executive summary
At its core this is an approach to deep decarbonisation that requires a fair distribution of the costs and benefits of low-carbon transition (and climate policies) across the economy. Low-carbon development means that output and employmentin energy efficient and renewable industries and services will grow, energy- and resource-intensive sectors are likely tostagnate or contract. Many jobs will also be transformed, requiring new skills and training. Furthermore, climate policy canbe advanced in a way that has regional or socially regressive impacts, and can have a positive or negative impact onemployment and job creation. A just transition framework requires Government to proactively managing these potentiallynegative impacts and to smooth the transition for affected workers, enterprises and their communities.
Ensuring a just transition is not just about the moral imperative of protecting workers, the most vulnerable members of ourcommunity, or the environment for future generations. We would urge Government to see the just transition framework asa strategic approach to low-carbon transition, which seeks to identify potential adversaries/barriers to transition, and theirunderlying concerns, and to manage these issues through careful planning and policy development. A just transitionframework is not just good policy, it is smart policy, which makes achieving climate policy objectives more likely.
The pillars of an Irish just transition Within this context, we set out what we consider six pillars of a just transition framework for Ireland below, drawing onexamples from international best practice.
1. Considering social impacts in strategic policy formulation: a greater consideration of the social impacts of climate policymust be integrated into strategic policy formulation. This involves considering employment impacts by taking accountof the structure of the economy, sectoral employment data and the impacts of different low-carbon developmentpathways for key sectors. It also involves considering fiscal impacts. The cost of climate action is often given prominence,but the cost of inaction may fall on the exchequer, and ultimately the taxpayer. The distributional implications of thiscounterfactual scenario are often obscured in policy planning, and deserve greater attention.
2. Delivering social and regional proofing of all incentives and measures: It is important for policies and incentives to be designedin a manner that minimises negative social and regional impacts. For example, further environmental tax reform shouldbe revenue neutral and revenues should be used to offset regressive impacts. Grants, tax incentives, soft loans and othersubsidies should be designed with minimal barriers to entry for local citizens and investors. There is an opportunity togive citizens a greater stake in low-carbon development through much greater levels of local authority and communityownership of future solar PV, wind farm, biomass and waste-to-energy developments.
3. Involving employee representatives in policy development: Strong social consensus achieved through social dialogue shouldbe an integral part of the policy response and must be at the core of the just transition framework.
4. Focusing on skills and training: An audit of the skills base required in a low-carbon economy is required. The skills andexperience of Ireland’s employers’ associations and trade unions is underutilised and could be harnessed to a greaterextent in designing skills and retraining initiatives.
5. Ensuring social protection and security: Within the context of structural change and jobs churn, there is a requirement toensure adequate social support and adequate income replacement benefits, combined with effective activation of benefitrecipients.
6. Promoting a just transition globally: As a developed country, Ireland must continue to take the lead by “undertakingeconomy-wide absolute emission reduction targets” in the near term, and must respect its international commitmentson climate finance.
6
IMPACT’s commitment to a just transitionA just transition framework would have implications for IMPACT. With some 60,000 members, IMPACT is Ireland’s largest publicservice trade union and has significant influence. We have thousands of members in local authorities, the voluntary andcommunity sector, healthcare, education and semi-state organisations and private sector companies like Aer Lingus andEircom.
These sectors will, in many ways, be central to low-carbon development. For example, staff in local authorities have key rolesin building resilience to impacts of climate change such as flooding, and in mitigating greenhouse gas emissions throughthe development of local area development plans. Within the education and healthcare sectors there are also opportunitiesto improve the energy efficiency of buildings and to procure a greater share of energy efficient and low-carbon technologies.
The work of many technical and professional civil servants impacts on climate change issues, as does the work of staff in stateagencies including Coillte and the EPA. Furthermore, educators have a key role in promoting awareness of climate changeamong the next generation, and promoting pro-environmental behaviours and attitudes. The community-based and thevoluntary sectors can play a central role in promoting the development of municipally and locally owned renewable energyprojects; and there may be a particularly important role for co-operatives in this respect.
Views of our membersWe have identified a number of ways that IMPACT can work with our members to ensure a just transition though an internalconsultation process.
Our members identified the low level or awareness of climate issues as a key concern and identified options for promotinggreater awareness using the union’s website, Work & Life magazine, the ebulletin, conferences, branch meetings etc. Havinga standing committee on climate change was another option identified by members to raise awareness on the ground.
Members also agreed that there was a role to be played by IMPACT in promoting a just transition framework in governmentpolicy. There was consensus that this could involve promoting consideration of the impact of climate change on ordinaryworkers, and ensuring that measures are socially and regionally proofed, and potentially by integrating a focus on justtransition into collective bargaining.
Finally, some members expressed a view that IMPACT could promote greener workplaces using measures such as the GreenTeam that was established some year ago by the EPA’s partnership committee. Best practices like these could be shared andpromoted.
7
The planet is warming rapidly. According to NASA, 2014, 2015 and 2016 have successively broken the record for warmestyear on record, with 2016 in particular set to shatter previous records1. The global average temperature is already more than1 degree Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
8
1.The danger posed by climate change
Fig 1. Global average temperature
Scientific consensus: There is an overwhelming consensus within the scientific community that anthropogenic factors – thehuman release of greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) – is the primary driver of this warming2. According to theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), it is “extremely likely” that man is responsible, a level of scientific certaintycomparable to the link between smoking and lung cancer. The concentration of GHGs in the atmosphere is higher than atany time in human civilisation. It is at least 800,000 years since CO2 concentrations were last at today’s level3, and perhaps asmuch as 15 million years (when sea levels were approximately 100 feet higher than they are today4).
Global impacts: Without a radical change in direction, the world is on track for at least 4 degrees Celsius of planetary warmingby 2100. Given the lack of collective ambition to reduce emissions, as well as a time-lag effect (emissions already accumulatedin the atmosphere will cause future warming), the planet will inevitability continue to heat up over the coming decades, evenassuming rapid decarbonisation.
Source: NASA (2016)
1 http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/ 2 http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024024/pdf;jsessionid=AE364D20A76AC0592B14A6449C3F691C.c2.iopscience.cld.iop.org 3 https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-atmospheric-concentrations-greenhouse-gases 4 http://science.sciencemag.org/content/326/5958/1394
Already, climate change has given rise to an unprecedented series of extreme weather events that scientists have linked to achanging climate. These include wildfires that ravaged Northern Albert, Alaska and California; drought across Africa, parts ofAsia and South America; and flooding in many parts of Ireland, China, and Florida. The human impact is already acute invulnerable regions. According to UNICEF, in Ethiopia alone in 2016 almost half a million children were treated for acutemalnutrition arising from changes to the rainy seasons linked to climate change.
According to the IPCC, future impacts will be “severe, pervasive and irreversible”. These include sea level rise and weatherextremes, such as heat waves, droughts, floods, cyclones, and wildfires. Impacts will be particularly severe in already-vulnerablecommunities that have less capacity to adapt (Africa, parts of Asia and South America). Climate change will likely increasefood insecurity, hunger and malnutrition in these regions, and has the potential to exacerbate violent conflict and add tomigratory pressures5.
Direct Irish impacts: Ireland is a wealthy country situated at a northern temperate latitude, and the direct impacts of climatechange may therefore be relatively less acutely here. Ireland can also be considered a comparatively resilient country,physically and socially, compared to many vulnerable developing countries. Nevertheless, there will be direct climate impacts,and they must be planned for. Two areas of concern that stand out are extreme precipitation events and sea level rise.
The IPCC projects that sea levels could rise globally by between half a meter and a meter by 21006. There is, however,considerable uncertainty around these projections. Many studies assume slow and linear melting of the Greenland andAntarctic ice sheets, which together contain 66 meters worth of sea level rise. But more recent studies7 have focused on howpossible feedbacks could make ice sheet collapse more abrupt, suggesting that multi-meter sea level rise could be possiblein “50, 100 or 200 years8”. Given Ireland’s settlement patterns, even modest levels of sea level rise will have dramatic andnegative impacts.
Another major impact that Ireland needs to prepare for is flooding from extreme precipitation. These events are estimatedto be 40 percent more likely9 in a world with climate warming. A UCD and Met Éireann study predicts a further 20% increasein heavy rainfall events in winter and autumn by mid-century10. Finally, the impacts of climate change and weather extremeson health and wellbeing is an emerging area of research, with potential impacts including increase heat-related mortality,changing water-borne and vector-borne disease patterns and increase UV exposure (Section 7.2).
Indirect Irish impacts: Furthermore, climate impacts will reach across borders and Ireland must also prepare for thetransnational or indirect impacts of climate change. As a small open country highly dependent on international trade andForeign Direct Investment (FDI), the impact of climate-induced extreme events in other regions could profoundly affectIreland11. For example, drought linked to climate change has been cited as one contributing factor to the Syrian conflict12.The Middle East and North Africa are among the most vulnerable areas on earth to climate change and climate models predictthat mega-droughts and heat waves could make parts of these regions uninhabitable as early as 205013, increasing migratorypressure to less vulnerable regions. Ireland is ranked as one of the most vulnerable countries to indirect climate impacts14.
9
5 http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg2/ar5_wgII_spm_en.pdf 6 https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_Chapter13_FINAL.pdf 7 http://www.nature.com/news/antarctic-model-raises-prospect-of-unstoppable-ice-collapse-1.19638 8 http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/16/3761/2016/acp-16-3761-2016.pdf 9 https://www.newscientist.com/article/2075774-south-englands-2014-floods-made-more-likely-by-climate-change/ 10 http://www.met.ie/publications/irelandinawarmerworld.pdf11 https://www.sei-international.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/SEI-WP-2016-07-Introducing-TCI-Index.pdf 12 http://www.pnas.org/content/112/11/3241.abstract 13 http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-016-1665-6 14 https://www.sei-international.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/SEI-WP-2016-07-Introducing-TCI-Index.pdf
Fig 2. CO2 Concentrations in the atmosphere
Source: US EPA (2016)
Ireland is falling well short of meeting its international, EU and national obligations to reduce emissions.
The UN: These commitments arise in the first place from international agreements under the auspices of the United NationalFramework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), to which both the EU and Ireland are parties. The Paris ClimateAgreement of December 2015 committed parties to avoid “dangerous” climate change and to maintain global temperatures“well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels”, and to “pursue efforts” to limit temperature increases to below 1.5degrees15. The Agreement specifies that countries must seek to collectively ‘peak global greenhouse gas emissions as soonas possible’ and ‘to undertake rapid reductions thereafter in accordance with the best available science16”.
Under the Agreement, parties, including the EU, are required to submit commitments to reduce emissions. Even if thesecommitments to decarbonise made by national Governments were fully implemented, warming in the region of 3 degreesoccur by the end of the century17. These pledges will therefore be subject to 5-yearly assessment under so-called “globalstocktakes”. It is hoped that these stocktakes will promote the ratcheting up of decarbonisation by spurring nationalGovernments to bring forward increasingly ambitious plans to reduce emissions over time. The Preamble of the COP21 ParisAgreement requires that international, regional and national action on climate change takes into account the imperative “ofa just transition [Section 5, below] of the workforce and the creation of decent work and quality jobs in accordance withnationally defined development priorities”.
It is clear, however, that the global objective of avoiding dangerous climate change is extremely challenging, and wouldrequire much more rapid decarbonisation than is currently envisaged in many countries18.
The EU: As a party to the Paris Agreement and previous UN agreements, the EU has committed to reduce emissions:
• 20% by 2020• At least 40% by 2030; and • Between 80% and 95% relative by 2050.
These EU targets are in turn divided among Member States, including Ireland. Under the EU’s 2008 Climate and EnergyPackage, Ireland received a legally binding target for emissions and renewable energy (Table 1). Building on thesecommitment, in June 2016 the EU Commission proposed reduction targets for the period 2020 to 2030 for Ireland and otherMember States19. The Commission proposed that Ireland must reduce its emissions from buildings, transport and agricultureby 30% by 2030.
National: In addition to Ireland’s international and EU commitments, the Government’s National Policy Position (201420)established a long-term national mitigation objective that emissions from electricity generation, built environment andtransport sectors would be reduced 80%. In parallel, an “approach to carbon neutrality” in the agriculture and land-use sector,including forestry, is envisaged. Ireland’s EU and national commitments are summarised in Table 1 below. These targets implya structural transformation of the economy, with potentially profound implications for jobs and social justice (Chapter 5).
10
2. Ireland’s commitments
15 http://unfccc.int/paris_agreement/items/9485.php 16 http://unfccc.int/paris_agreement/items/9485.php17 http://climateactiontracker.org/global.html 18 http://www.nature.com/news/is-the-2-c-world-a-fantasy-1.18868 19 http://www.iiea.com/ftp/Publications/2014/Understanding%20the%20European%20Council%20Conclusions%20Climate_IIEA_Joseph-Curtin.pdf 20 http://www.housing.gov.ie/environment/climate-change/policy/climate-action-and-low-carbon-development-national-policy-position
Conclusion: The Paris Agreement came into force on November 2016, and Ireland’s 2030 target is the subject of ongoingnegotiation at EU level. 2017 will therefore be a crucial year for international climate policy development. International andEU developments have underlined the decarbonisation imperative and reinforced the message to policy makers andGovernment that this is an issue which requires ongoing and proactive attention.
11
Table 1. Ireland’s emission reduction commitments
DESCRIPTION PERIOD NATURE STATUS
Reduce emissions from buildings, 2020 Legally binding Not on target:transport and agriculture 20% under EU emissions 12% belowon 1990 levels 1990 levels and increasing
16% of energy to come from renewables 2020 Legally binding Not on target:under EU approximately 8% of energy
from renewables and increasing slowly
Reduce emissions from buildings, 2030 Under negotiation Not on target:transport and agriculture 30% emissions 12% below 1990on 1990 levels levels and increasing
Reduce energy emissions 80% and 2050 National commitment Not on target:achieve “carbon neutrality” in agriculture emissions from agriculture
and energy both increasing
While Ireland has a requirement to reduce emissions 20% by 2020 (Table 1), the latest EPA data (for 2015) illustrates thatemissions are increasing rapidly now against the backdrop of a growing economy. This trend is evident in all key sectors:transport, agriculture, buildings and energy generation21.
12
3.Emissions trends and measures to reduce emissions
Gap to target: According to Ireland’s Climate Change Advisory Council, the pace of decarbonisation is falling short of whatwould be required to meet Ireland’s immediate and longer-term objectives22. The most notable trend since 1990 has been arapid increase in transport sector emissions over this period. The performance of the key sectors is given in Fig 4 below.
Fig 3. Ireland’s emissions by sector 1990 - 2015
Fig 4. Change in sectoral emissions 1990 and 2014
Source: CCAC (2016)
21 http://www.epa.ie/pubs/reports/air/airemissions/ghgemissions/GHG%201990-2015%20Provisional%20November%202016.pdf 22 http://www.climatecouncil.ie/media/CCAC_FIRSTREPORT.pdf
Source: EPA (2016)
Looking forward, when emissions projections are set against Ireland’s existing target for 2020 and the likely future target for2030, a very significant gap to target arises (Gaps 1 and 2, Fig 5). This is despite the fact that a favourable target looks likelyto be negotiated (Ireland’s 2021 target is likely to be significantly higher than its existing 2020 target, Fig 5).
13
23 http://www.iiea.com/blogosphere/how-much-of-irelands-fiscal-space-will-climate-inaction-consume 24 Somanathan, E. S., D. Chimanikire, N.K. Dubash, J. Essandoh-Yeddu, S. Fifita, L. Goulder, A. Jaffe, X. Labandeira, S. Managi, C. Mitchell, J.P. Montero, F. Teng, and T. Zylicz. (2014).
National and Sub-national Policies and Institutions. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: C. U. Press.
Fig 5. Ireland’s projected emissions compared to existing (2020) and future (2030) targets
Leaving aside the moral case for taking action to reduce emissions, continued failure to bring forward measures to reduceemissions could have negative implications for the exchequer. Costs arising from payment of possible fines, purchase ofcarbon credits, the cost of offsetting emissions with forestry etc. have been estimated at between €3 and 6 billion by 203023.This is a particularly important finding within the context of the EU's fiscal rules and the so-called “fiscal space” within whichIreland must now operate. More money spent on emissions permits and fines means less money for tax cuts, schools, hospitalsor for meeting other social policy objectives.
The impacts of policy implementation: While the pace of decarbonisation has therefore fallen behind what is required, therehave been some notable successes. Two national mitigation plans have been introduced in 2000 and 2007, which havecontained a number of commitments, some of which have been implemented. The 2007 mitigation plan elapsed in 2012and is yet to be replaced, although a new national mitigation strategy is belatedly under development, and should go out toconsultation in the first half of 2017.
We provide an overview of the key measures that have been introduced in Table 2 below, looking at economy-wide policies(carbon tax and emissions trading) and sector-specific policies. In each case, we provide a summary of the impact andeffectiveness of the measure introduced, using an evaluative framework proposed by IPCC for climate policies, which includespotential social and distributional impacts24.
Source: IIEA (2017)
14
Tabl
e 2.
Mea
sure
s in
trod
uced
to re
duce
em
issi
ons
NAM
EDE
SCRI
PTIO
NIM
PACT
COST
-EFF
ECTI
VENE
SSPO
LITI
CAL A
ND
DIST
RIBU
TION
AL EQ
UITY
AND
AD
MIN
ISTR
ATIV
E FEA
SIBI
LITY
BROA
DER
SOCI
AL IM
PACT
S
Bette
r Ene
rgy H
omes
Gran
t sch
eme t
o cov
er a
Mob
ilised
160,0
00 ho
useh
oldAs
sessm
ents
show
over
all
Cons
idera
ble ch
allen
ges f
orNe
gativ
e dist
ribut
ional
prop
ortio
n of t
he co
st of
roof
inv
estm
ents
in EE
and R
ESco
st-eff
ectiv
enes
s of
gove
rnm
ent i
n adm
iniste
ring
impli
catio
ns lim
ited b
y bro
adan
d wall
insu
lation
and e
nerg
y te
chno
logies
prog
ram
me f
or so
ciety
gran
tsta
ke up
acro
ss so
cio-e
cono
mic
efficie
nt he
ating
syste
ms
cate
gorie
s
Bette
r Ene
rgy C
omm
uniti
esGr
ants
cove
ring u
p to 5
0% of
M
obilis
ed 26
1 pilo
t com
mun
ityNo
ex po
st as
sessm
ent
Cons
idera
ble ad
mini
strat
iveEn
visag
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pilot
/exe
mpla
rco
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upgr
ading
efficie
ncy o
f inv
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ents
in en
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retro
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of pr
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yet u
nder
take
nch
allen
ges f
or go
vern
men
tpr
oject
with
pote
ntial
posit
iveco
mm
unity
build
ings i
nvolv
ing
cove
ring 1
2,000
build
ings
impa
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publi
c acce
ptab
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publi
c, pr
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Over
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lthier
rene
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Batte
ry El
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chem
eGr
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chem
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batte
ry-
Not s
ucce
ssful
in m
obiliz
ingNo
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omic
evalu
ation
Low
adm
inistr
ative
costs
Take
up fo
cuse
d on
powe
red e
lectri
c veh
icles
(BEV
) inv
estm
ents
in BE
Vsun
derta
ken
wealt
hier c
ohor
ts giv
en co
st of
and p
lug-in
hybr
ids up
to
(200
per a
nnum
for t
hete
chno
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supp
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axim
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€5,00
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ilized
thou
sand
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Lack
of re
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mak
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w ba
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and a
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€1,00
0 rep
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chall
engin
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clusiv
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VRT a
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x bas
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Aver
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ew ve
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ions
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of im
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going
mon
itorin
gNo
neon
CO2 e
miss
ions o
f eng
inefel
l from
166g
/km
(200
8)
Gove
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even
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114g
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The 2016 Programme for Government promises to take actions on climate change in the four key sectors from an emissionsperspective: Electricity generation, built environment, transport and agriculture. A discussion document was published settingout a preliminary Government position on these sectors25. The relative importance of each which is set out in Fig. 6 below.
15
4.Sectoral progress and challenges
In order to transition to a low-carbon economy these sectors would need to be almost entirely decarbonised by 2050. Withinthis context we provide an overview of progress in each sector.
Electricity generation and heavy industry: The EU Emissions Trading scheme applies to these sectors. It covers approximately100 large power stations, industrial plants and airlines operating to any of the other 31 European countries covered by theETS. A persistently low-carbon price (of circa €5) has meant that the scheme has only had a marginal impact on industrialand investment activity in covered firms to date.
On the other hand, a Feed in Tariff26 incentive, first introduced by the Irish Government in 2006/2007, has spurred the rapiddecarbonisation of electricity in Ireland, through the development of large-scale wind farms. Unlike other countries (Germany,Canada, Denmark, the UK, Table 3), however, there has been almost no local investment, ownership or involvement of localcommunities in these wind farm developments. This has resulted in the widespread mobilisation of local host communitiesagainst wind farms which are perceived to benefit “remote corporate” investors, and not local communities.
Source: EPA (2016)
25 http://www.dccae.ie/energy/SiteCollectionDocuments/Energy-Initiatives/National%20Mitigation%20Plan%20Briefing%20Document.pdf 26 An incentive which provides a guaranteed minimum price to electricity exported to the grid
Fig 6. Ireland’s emissions by sector
Built environment: Quite a number of grants schemes have been introduced in the buildings sector to encourage individualhouseholds to invest in low-carbon technologies and reduce energy use in homes (community-focused schemes are alsogrowing in importance). These have, however, largely been focused on promoting marginal investments in low costtechnologies (attic and cavity wall insulation) that are cost effective for homeowners without grants. For deep decarbonisationto be achieved, a focus on promoting much deeper and comprehensive retrofit of homes and buildings in the community,involving a portfolio of technologies27, is required. It is unlikely that this cannot be achieved with grant funding (fromexchequer resources) and more sophisticated market-based incentive programmes must be developed28.
Transport: Amendments to the VRT and motor taxation schemes have successfully shifted investment away from high CO2vehicles. Grants schemes for EVs, however, have not succeeded in promoting widespread uptake. Deep decarbonisationrequires a much greater level of investment in low-carbon electric or electric-hybrid vehicles, in the private motor fleetand freight sectors. The experience of countries such as Norway illustrates that this is possible with a mix of financial andnon-financial incentives. Additionally, modal shift to greater use of public transport, cycling and walking is required, butIreland has an underdeveloped public transport infrastructures compared to many European countries. Capital infrastructureplans remain resolutely skewed towards roads and away for public transport or cycling infrastructure29. Measures to increasecosts of private diesel and petrol vehicles (increased carbon taxes, road charges, tolls, or congestion charges) are perceivedas unpopular and politically infeasible.
With respect to Irish emissions from aviation, these have been included in the EU emissions trading system (EU ETS) since2012. All airlines operating in Europe are required to monitor, report and verify their emissions, and to surrender allowancesagainst those emissions. While the low-carbon price has meant that the impact on the sector has been minimal to date,increasing carbon prices over the coming decades may have an impact on the sector over time as the increased cost of permitswill be passed through to consumers via higher prices.
Agriculture: there has been some progress in promoting afforestation, which sequesters CO2, but annual growth rates arefar behind the 16,000 hectares per annum required to achieve the Government objective of 18% forest cover by 2046. Othermeasures to promote greater productive efficiency and to reduce inputs on beef and dairy farming have been somewhatsuccessful in reducing GHG emissions on a per unit of output basis30. However, gains have been more than offset by increasesin output, and emissions from agriculture are projected to continue growing in the period to 2030. Climate change is seena threat to the expansion plans for the agri-food sector set out in industry/government strategy documents (Food Harvest2020 and Food Wise 2025). Farming communities are concerned that responding to climate change could negatively affecttheir livelihoods. Farmers are somewhat reluctant to consider potential opportunities arising from decarbonisation that havebeen identifies31, including in the bio-economy, climate-smart farming, and distributed renewables, for a variety of social,cultural and other reasons.
Conclusion: the process of decarbonisation is often complicated by competition from adversaries defending existingtechnologies and practices, and the actions of these incumbents creates barriers32. This can arise because costs can falldisproportionally on specific communities, and benefits can be dispersed across society. This is a dynamic which is evidentfrom the activities of stakeholder and civil society groups that have mobilised to oppose aspects of low-carbon transition(pylons, wind turbines, forestry, carbon tax etc.).
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27 http://www.publicpolicy.ie/wp-content/uploads/From-Grants-to-Finance1.pdf 28 http://www.publicpolicy.ie/wp-content/uploads/From-Grants-to-Finance1.pdf 29 http://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/capital-investment-plan-2016-2021-the-main-points-1.2371783 30 http://www.iiea.com/ftp/Publications/IIEA_CSA%20Leadership%20Forum%20Final%20Report_Digital%20Version.pdf 31 http://www.iiea.com/ftp/Publications/IIEA_CSA%20Leadership%20Forum%20Final%20Report_Digital%20Version.pdf 32 Zimmerman, M. A. and Zeitz, G. J. f. (2002): Beyond survival: Achieving new venture growth by building legitimacy. Academy of Management Review. Vol. 27,
No. 3, pp. 414-431.
A National Mitigation Plan33 is currently being agreed across Government to replace the previous strategy which expired in2012. It will establish the required policy framework at sectoral levels that is required to achieve the 2050 national mitigationobjective and targets to 2020 and 2030 in a cost-effective manner.
As can be seen from the above analysis (Section 4), key stakeholders, and indeed Government Departments that representthese stakeholders’ interests (including incumbent energy sectors, farming communities and downstream processors, hauliersand commuters etc.) are potential vulnerable to action to address climate change. This perceived vulnerability makesambitious climate action difficult.
Within this context, IMPACT believes that concept of a just transition to a low-carbon future must be central to Ireland’s low-carbon development. The concept of a just transition can be traced back to the International Trade Union Confederation(ITUC) Congress in 2010 where a resolution called for a “fair, ambitious and binding international climate change agreementand just transition policy framework aimed at reducing greenhouse gases and dependence on fossil fuels”.
A just transition recognises: “the need to support low-carbon transition as a priority, but also recognises that support forenvironmental policies are conditional on a fair distribution of the costs and benefits of those policies across the economy34”.The concept is based on the recognition that a major restructuring of the economy, and the process of structural changerequired35, can lead to a number of socially unwelcome side effects, with negative impacts for some workers and communities.Ensuring a just transition means managing this process so that negative social impacts are mitigated and positive impactsare maximised. In Ireland, the Climate Action and Low-carbon Development Act 2015 places a legal obligation on the Ministerto have regard to “climate justice” in developing a national mitigation plan and national adaptation framework.
It is important to understand the mechanisms through which low-carbon transition can lead to negative social outcomes inorder for these impacts to be managed through proactive policy development. We therefore discuss these impacts and theirimplications within an Irish context below.
5.1. Job creation, destruction and redefinitionThe most important way in which low-carbon transition can impact workers and communities is through the creation anddestruction of jobs. It is commonly acknowledged that low-carbon transition will create jobs in certain sectors of the economy,including in renewable energy industries, energy efficiency (e.g. manufacturing, transportation, building construction andoperations); climate-smart agriculture and adaptation projects (e.g. flood barriers). These jobs, however, need to be balancedagainst the jobs that could be lost in other carbon-intensive sectors. Studies evaluating the net impact of these two effectsgenerally find that overall low-carbon transition will have a net positive impact on job creation globally of between 15–60million additional jobs36.
While no comprehensive study has been undertaken of net creation from low-carbon transition in Ireland, sectoral numbershave been derived from a variety of sources. Estimates available suggest that:
• In the wind sector 10,000 to 40,000 jobs could be created
• In the smart-grid (this refers to integrating communications technology onto the electricity grid to enable financialand informational transactions among consumers, grid assets, and users) and associated sectors up to 10,000 jobscould be created
• In building retrofit and low-carbon buildings between 10,000 to 30,000 jobs could be created
• In climate1-smart agriculture 8,000 jobs could be created.
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33 While climate change requires both mitigation of emissions and adaption to the impacts of climate change the focus of this analysis is on mitigation for the most part34 https://www.tuc.org.uk/sites/default/files/documents/greenfuture.pdf 35 https://www.oecd.org/els/emp/50503551.pdf 36 ILO and IILS (International Institute for Labour Studies). 2012. Working Towards Sustainable Development: Opportunities for Decent Work and Social Inclusion in a Green
Economy. Geneva, International Labour Organization.
5.A just transition to a low-carbon economy
37 UNLOCKING OPPORTUNITY: THE BUSINESS CASE FOR TAKING CLIMATE ACTION IN IRELAND: A Report by the Irish Corporate Leaders on Climate Change, available:http://www.foe.ie/download/pdf/unlocking_opportunity_the_business_case_for_climate_action_in_ireland.pdf
38 http://igees.gov.ie/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/Future-Expenditure-Risks-associated-with-Climate-Change-Climate-Finance1.pdf 39 https://www.tuc.org.uk/sites/default/files/documents/greenfuture.pdf
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There are a number of additional areas where job creation is likely to occur, but for which estimates are not available. Theseinclude areas such as green finance and green network infrastructure development37. In adapting to climate change there isalso the potential to create thousands of jobs. However, the process of understanding the risks and vulnerabilities of Irelandto future climate impacts is at an early stage. The infrastructural investment priorities for managing these risks (building flooddefences, protecting vulnerable water and energy infrastructure etc.) are therefore unclear, but early estimates suggestinvestment requirements of between €80m and €800m per annum38.
However, it is important to note that jobs could also be lost in various sectors which could partially or fully offset these gains.Particularly vulnerable sectors in Ireland could include:
• Coal and peat powered generation• Peat harvesting and downstream activities• Marginal beef farming and processing • Oil importing and distribution • Freight transportation and • Oil and gas exploration.
Impacts may be uneven geographically, with positive or negative impacts for regional development. For example, if peat isphased out in the power generation sector and in home heating, this could adversely affect the midlands, where associatedjobs are located. Pressures on marginal beef farming could affect some of the most marginal and disadvantaged regions ofIreland. Nor will job creation necessarily happen at the same time or pace as conventional job losses. Job losses could arisesuddenly and in large numbers if a large installation was closed, for example, whereas job creation may be more incrementaland small-scale, in multiple small distributed renewable energy installations.
A further factor to consider is that newly created jobs may be of a poorer quality – in terms of pay, conditions and/or seniority– than the jobs they replace. A final impact on jobs is that many existing jobs (such as plumbers, electricians, metal workers,construction workers, farmers, engineers, architects etc.) may have their jobs redefined as activities are greened.
5.2. The distributional impacts of climate policyA further way in which low-carbon transition could impact workers and communities is through the distributional impactsof climate policy. A just transition involves understanding these potential impacts and ensuring that the social impacts ofenvironmental initiatives do not impact on lower income or marginalised groups and communities39.
The standard economic approach to responding to climate policy involves at its core pricing carbon, but poorer householdstend to spend a higher proportion of their income on fuel and electricity. There is therefore the potential for these policies tobe regressive. For example, in Ireland:
• There is a carbon tax covering emissions from all fossil fuel not covered by the emissions trading scheme (mostlyfalling on transport and heating fuels) of €20 t/CO2
• Power generation companies covered by the emissions trading scheme must purchase and surrender carbonpermits, the cost of which is passed through to consumers on electricity bills
• The cost of subsidising wind (and peat) generation is also passed onto electricity bill payers through the PSO onelectricity bills.
Furthermore, other subsidies, tax incentives and grant schemes to promote low-carbon technology adoption will have anexchequer impact and ultimately must be paid for by taxpayers. Environmental policy measures may therefore have regressiveimpacts if they are not designed appropriately.
40 http://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---dgreports/---inst/documents/publication/wcms_194183.pdf 41 Since 2013 the manufacturing industry received 80% of its allowances for free. This proportion will decrease gradually each year to 30% in 2020. However, Sectors and sub-
sectors facing competition from industries outside the EU that are not subject to comparable climate legislation will receive more free allowances than those which are notat risk of this carbon leakage. For more details see: https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/ets/allowances/industrial_en
42 https://www.tuc.org.uk/sites/default/files/documents/greenfuture.pdf
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5.3. Climate policy and jobsA third factor to consider links the two factors discussed above: job creation and climate policy. Ensuring a just transitioninvolves considering the potential impact of climate policy on job creation, be that positive or negative.
According to the ILO, and a great body of additional theoretical and empirical findings, a double dividend, i.e. both a reductionin CO2 emissions and improvements in the labour market (reduced unemployment, job growth and improved equity) arepossible if climate policy is well designed40. In particular, it is necessary to use revenues from policy interventions (such asemissions trading or carbon taxation) to off-set negative socio-economic consequences, and if job creation is the policyobjective, by reducing labour taxes. In the Irish case, however, the revenue from these interventions flow directly to theexchequer.
However, environmental policy, whether pricing carbon through taxation, emissions trading or indeed increased regulation,can also place an economy at a competitive disadvantage, and result in so-called “carbon leakage”. This refers to a situationwhere, as a result of a stringent climate policy, companies move their production to countries with less ambitious climatemeasures, leading to an overall rise in global greenhouse gas emissions. This could result in job losses for no environmentalgain.
The EU Emissions Trading Scheme has created some disquiet at EU level over the ‘carbon leakage’ of jobs in five carbon-intensive sectors – lime, precious metals, ceramic products, basic iron and steel, and cement. These concerns have beenmirrored in Ireland, particularly from the cement and metal processing sectors, where there are concerns that futurecompetitiveness could be undermined by the scheme. The persistence of a low-carbon price and the design of the scheme(manufacturing forms receive the majority of allowances for free41) means that these concerns have not yet come into sharpfocus in Ireland.
There is somewhat less research, however, exploring the effect these costs might have on pay and conditions, or even levelsof employment. This information void means it is impossible to say how well-founded fears relating to this issue are at an EUlevel42 or indeed in Ireland.
Conclusion: The structural change of low-carbon transition can lead to jobs churn, which can acutely affect particular regionsand communities. Policies can also lead to regressive social impacts, can reinforce jobs losses, or indeed promote job creation.In order to ensure a just transition to a low-carbon society it is necessary to understand the potentially negative social anddistributional impact that arise from structural change, so that workers vulnerable to dislocation can be identified and newjobs can be created.
According to the European Commission reinforcing and promoting social partners’ activities at all levels (European, national,sectoral, regional and company) is crucial for the successful transition towards a green economy43. While social partners, tradeunions and employers’ associations are strongly involved in shaping low-carbon transition in some member States such asFinland, Belgium and Germany, this is not uniformly the case. In Ireland, IMPACT recognises that more needs to be done bytrade unions in promoting a more socially progressive low-carbon transition.
Focusing on policy development and implementation, in this section, we therefore present six important pillars of a justtransition framework for Ireland, in light of findings from previous sections of this report. In so-doing we draw heavily oninternational research and best practice, in particular the work of the ILO’s principles for a just transition44.
6.1. Using a just transition framework for strategic policy formulation Strategic policy formulation must integrate consideration of the principles of just transition. This includes assessing the jobcreation and fiscal impacts of different low-carbon development pathways.
6.1.1. Employment impacts: While overall, the jobs story related to low-carbon transition may prove positive for Ireland (Section5), it is notable that no comprehensive assessment of net job creation potential from different low-carbon developmentpathways has been undertaken. Strategic policy formulation should integrate consideration of the structure of the economy,sectoral employment data and the impacts of different low-carbon development pathways for key sectors of the economyand across the regions. This analysis could inform medium to long term policy planning, allowing for negative impacts to beidentified and managed.
6.1.2. Fiscal impacts: Ireland’s climate policy formulation is subject to internationally binding targets. For this reason, climateinaction has consequences in terms of fines, purchase of carbon credits or use of other offsets (Section 3). While the costs ofmeasures to reduce emissions are prominently considered in policy assessments, often the counterfactual is absent. Whilethe cost of action may often fall on a particular high pollution sector, the cost of inaction may fall on the exchequer, andultimately the taxpayer. The distributional implications of these decisions and choices is often obscured and deserves greaterattention within the context of a just transition framework.
6.2. Socially and regionally-proofing design of all measuresOnce the impacts are understood, it is important for policies and inventive to be designed in a manner that minimises negativesocial and regional impacts and maximises benefits. It is furthermore important that policies are assessed ex post consideringtheir social and geographical impacts.
6.6.1. Pricing Carbon: While carbon taxes and Emissions Trading schemes have been introduced in Ireland (Section 3), thesehave not been introduced in a revenue-neutral manner, nor have revenues been used to manage negative socio-economicimpacts (Table 2). It is likely, therefore, that these incentives have had regressive impacts, and they have potentially increasedfuel poverty, because poorer households will tend to spend a greater proportion of income on fuel. With respect toinstruments for pricing carbon, OECD45 and International Institute for Labour Studies (IILS)46 studies (supported by a wide-ranging literature from environmental economics) finds that when carbon tax revenue is used to reduce distortionary labourtaxes, employment increases in all sectors. Further environmental tax reform (as envisaged in the Government’s BriefingDocument on Ireland’s First National Mitigation Plan, published January 2017) should therefore be designed in a revenueneutral manner so that employment affects and socially regressive impacts are minimised. There are a variety of design
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6.Ensuring a just transition in Ireland
43 European Commission. 2013. Industrial Relations in Europe 2012. DG Employment, Social Affairs and Inclusion. Luxemburg. Available at:http://ec.europa.eu/social/main.jsp?catId=738&langId=en&pubId=7498
44 http://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---ed_emp/---emp_ent/documents/publication/wcms_432859.pdf 45 https://www.oecd.org/els/emp/50503551.pdf 46 IILS, 2009. World of Work Report 2009: The global job crisis and beyond, Geneva: International Institute for Labour Studies (IILS)
consideration and options that would ensure a more socially optimal outcome. For example, cutting taxes on labour for low-income earners (as was the case in Denmark47) or exempting a certain amount of household energy from carbon taxes or thePSO (based on income and family size) could be considered. So too could using revenues to increase spending on energyefficiency interventions to alleviate fuel poverty in vulnerable households.
6.6.2. Socially and rurally-proofed incentives: Managing the potentially negative impact of climate measures is not sufficientto build societal support for a just transition/low-carbon development. There is a need for a proactive approach to ensurethat all incentives and subsidies are designed with minimal barriers to entry for local citizens and investors. Previouslyincentives have been designed to be attractive to corporate sectors and higher-net worth individuals. For example, the FiTtariff, a subsidy for wind power has been successful in deploying wind power, but it has mobilised many local communitiesagainst wind power. There is an opportunity to ensure much greater levels of local ownership of future solar PV and windfarm developments by local communities, as has been achieved in many other countries where there is much higher rates ofcommunity and citizen ownership of low-carbon technologies (Table 3).
21
Table 3. Involvement of communities and citizens in renewable electricity generation
Proportion of total electricity Local ownershipgeneration (%, 2014)
Renewable Wind Solar PV
Denmark 53 40.5 .2 Over half of total wind investment from local citizen investors.
UK 19.1 9.5 0.6 Levels of community and citizen ownership increasing gradually from 2000 and more rapidly from 2009 to 2015.
Ontario 28.7 4.4 0.1 Levels of community and citizen ownership increasingly rapidly from 2009 to 2015.
Ireland 25 25 0 Only 4MW community-owned wind farm.
Germany 25.8 9 5 Over half of total investment in wind and solar from local citizen investors.
6.3. Involving employee representatives in low-carbon developmentSocial dialogue is one of the pillars of the Decent Work Agenda and one of key policy areas of the ILO guidelines. Within thecontext of climate change, social dialogue has been identified as an essential tool for anticipating and managing the impactsin the workplace. Strong social consensus achieved through social dialogue should be an integral part of the policy responseand must be at the core of the just transition framework. If the transition to low-carbon economy is to become a strong driverof job creation, job upgrading, social justice and poverty eradication, employees’ bodies must be integrated into the policydevelopment framework. Reflecting the perspectives of these actors in the design of climate strategy and policies can helpensure that responses respect, promote and realize fundamental principles and rights at work (including a strong genderdimension48). This requires adequate, informed and ongoing consultation with all stakeholders, including participation fromthe trade unions, which in turn can directly and indirectly enhance social support for low-carbon development.
6.4. Skills and trainingAccording to a UN analysis, skills shortages can pose problems for low-carbon development and that this is a problem thatcould grow in the coming years49. According to the ILO, these impacts must be managed through the integration ofenvironmental awareness and appropriate technical training for green jobs into education and training provision50. Thisincludes both skills for new workers and retraining of existing workers. According to the UN an integral feature of a just
47 http://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---dgreports/---inst/documents/publication/wcms_194183.pdf 48 http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2016/tp/07.pdf49 Poschen P. 2015. Sustainable Development, Decent Work and Green Jobs. Sheffield, Greenleaf Publishing, quoted in http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2016/tp/07.pdf 50 Strietska-Ilina O, Hofmann C, Durán Haro M and Jeon S. 2011. Skills for Green Jobs. A Global View. International Labour Office. Quoted in:
http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2016/tp/07.pdf
Source: UCC (2017)
transition framework is education and training efforts focusing on disadvantaged workers and communities, and perhapsincluding “remedial education or preferential treatment to ensure they are not left behind51”. In countries such as Denmarkand Germany skills and training programmes are combine governmental resources with the hands-on knowledge of relevantskills of employers’ associations and trade unions, which has ensured that curriculums reflect needed conditions andcircumstances52. The skills and experience of Ireland’s trade unions is perhaps underutilised and could be harnessed to agreater extent. There may also be a need to conduct an audit of the skills base required in a low-carbon economy53.Furthermore, the development of new skills through retraining needs to be incentivised and encouraged.
6.5. Social protection and securityThe IPCC Fifth Assessment Report highlights the importance of assessing the synergies among social protection policies,social development strategies, and disaster risk reduction strategies and climate policies (IPCC, 2014). Social protection canserve as a safety net, which can be particularly crucial in terms of economic restructuring, and when implementing climatemeasures with potentially regressive impacts (Section 6.2). According to the ILO, policies and approaches must consider“affordability, sustainability and adaptability”. Reconciling flows of workers from declining to growing sectors, and protectingthe quality of existing jobs through retraining and upskilling, is a crucial precondition for defusing worker opposition to low-carbon transition.
6.6. Promoting a just transition globallyA national just transition in Ireland also has an international dimension. Developed countries such as Ireland must promotedecarbonisation in line with principles enshrined in international climate Treaties. Most notably this includes the principle of“common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities” and the principle of “climate justice54”. Under Article4 of the COP21 Paris Agreement, the Irish Government, as a developed country, is required to continue to take the lead by“undertaking economy-wide absolute emission reduction targets”. Furthermore, the Climate Action and Low-carbonDevelopment Act 2015 a legal obligation is placed on the Minister to have regard to “climate justice” in developing a nationalmitigation plan and national adaptation framework. For these principles to be respected Ireland must rapidly decarboniseits economy, and respect its international commitments on climate finance and development assistance.
22
51 http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2016/tp/07.pdf 52 http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2016/tp/07.pdf 53 https://www.tuc.org.uk/sites/default/files/documents/greenfuture.pdf 54 http://www.mrfcj.org/
A just transition framework would have implications for IMPACT. With some 60,000 members, IMPACT is Ireland’s largest publicservice trade union and has significant influence. We also have thousands of members in local authorities, the voluntary andcommunity sector, education, healthcare, semi-state organisations and private sector companies like Aer Lingus and Eircom.IMPACT and its members will therefore be at the forefront of Ireland’s Just Transition in a number of ways.
7.1. Local authoritiesAs a leading union for local authorities, the role of IMPACT is particularly relevant. As noted by the UN, we recognise that thepublic sector is responsible for the very services that will be of increasing importance in adjusting to climate change – energysupplies, waste, water, education, health and social services. The envisaged transition will require very significant investmentsin low-carbon technologies, in workplaces and buildings, in public transport infrastructure and in flood defences and otherinfrastructure to manage the impact of natural catastrophes. Local authorities (and other service providers that IMPACTrepresents) are at the coal face, and jobs churn has potentially profound implications for IMPACT and its members.
Staff in local authorities have key roles in adaptation and mitigating and are potential drivers of behaviour change thoughtheir proximity to local communities. Local authorities also have direct impact in rolling out low-carbon infrastructures suchas: construction of park and ride, cycle lanes, pavements, promoting EVs/charging, smarter plans. The role of local authoritiesin agreeing county development is also important because these can have a key influence on deployment of sustainableenergy as well as driving sustainable communities and settlement patterns.
Local authorities are also direct and indirect users of energy (e.g. municipal buildings, street lighting etc.). For example, nearly130,000 houses are rented from local authorities55. Many of which are older houses, heated by storage heating or oil boilers,which are now proving to be inefficient and thus more expensive to run. There is a requirement for local authorities to overseeenergy efficiency improvements of this housing stock, for which funding is available from central government56. Furthermore,local authorities use a majority of their electricity on water and public lighting, and according to SEAI, there are opportunitiesto spending by up to 30%57. Local authorities can run environmental awareness programmes and engagements with localcommunities through initiatives such as tidy towns etc58. Finally, local authorities also have a central role in adaptation topotential climate impacts by integrating adaptation into the development of relevant policies, plans and programmes, andby collecting evidence, raising awareness, and creating the necessary relationships and actions needed to deliver purposefuladaptation measures59. Local authorities, finally, can be direct investors in renewables. For example, Louth local authoritieshave installed two wind turbines in the area to provide electricity for its buildings.
However, skills gaps (in areas such as clerk of works BER assessors and procurement) and lack of resources in local authoritieshave been identified as a key barrier preventing upgrading of buildings60 and restricts the ability of local authorities to investon other aspects of promoting low-carbon development.
7.2. Education and healthcareWithin the education and healthcare sectors there are also opportunities to improve the energy efficiency of buildings andto procure a greater share of energy efficient and low-carbon technologies. But these opportunities require upskilling andgreater support and resourcing to be capitalised upon.
23
55 http://www.cso.ie/en/media/csoie/census/documents/census2011profile4/Profile_4_The_Roof_over_our_Heads_Full_doc_sig_amended.pdf 56 http://www.housing.gov.ie/housing/social-housing/other/improvements-existing-dwellings 57 http://www.seai.ie/Publications/Your_Business_Publications/Public_Sector/Energy_Efficiency_in_the_Public_Sector_Leading_from_the_Front.pdf 58 http://www.housing.gov.ie/sites/default/files/public-consultation/files/responses/2016.06.26_submissions_received-
public_consultation_on_the_development_of_a_statutory_national_adaptation_framework.pdf 59 http://www.housing.gov.ie/sites/default/files/migrated-files/en/Publications/Environment/ClimateChange/FileDownLoad%2C32076%2Cen.pdf 60 http://www.aiea.ie/download.ashx?f=Social_Housing_Retrofit_Presentation_DEHLG.pdf
7.Implications for IMPACT and the public sector
There is a growing focus in these sectors on understanding the potential implications of climate change on health andwellbeing. This includes understanding and managing the impacts of weather extremes such as increase heat-relatedmortality, changing water-borne and vector-borne disease patterns and increase UV exposure. According to the HSE, climatechange is likely to affect populations unequally as there are likely to variable regional weather effects and variable regionalvulnerability. People who are socially, economically, culturally, politically, institutionally, or otherwise marginalised may beespecially vulnerable. There is a requirement within the healthcare sector to come to a greater understanding of the potentialimpacts of climate on health, and the requirements for skills development, training and resourcing therein.
Furthermore, educators have a key role in promoting awareness of climate change among the next generation, and promotingpro-environmental behaviours and attitudes. Within Institute of higher education and technical colleges there is a role for agreater focus on providing advisory services to local communities on areas relevant to low-carbon transition. For example,LIT (Tipperary) played a central role on promoting Ireland’s only community owned wind farm by providing advice andexpertise to the local community.
7.3. The community and voluntary sectorWhile to date Ireland’s low-carbon transition in the energy sector has focused promoting the role of institutional investorsand professional project developers, the examples of jurisdictions such as Scotland, England, Ontario, Denmark and Germanyillustrate that community-based and voluntary sectors can play a central role in promoting low-carbon communities. Theremay be a particularly important role for community-based co-operatives and other voluntary organisations as vehicles forcommunity energy projects. In Denmark, the UK, Germany and Ontario, cooperative are the most popular vehicle forcommunity participation, particularly for solar projects where the benefits are shared in the local community.
While there is a long tradition of co-operatives and community-based organisations in a variety of sectors (caring, charity,healthcare, farming and finance) there are few examples of community energy co-operatives. International experiencesuggests that co-operatives and community organisations with a focus on low-carbon energy are likely to arise out of existingorganisations active in the community. This is therefore an area where IMPACT can play a role by promoting awareness ofnew opportunities for community based organisations to expand the range of activities into the low-carbon economy.
To encourage to growth of energy co-operatives and other community energy projects, there is a need to ensure that allfuture grants, tax incentives and subsidies are socially and rurally proofed, so that they are accessible to local communities,citizens and all cohorts of society. This in turn is directly linked to mobilising societal support and removing objections tolow-carbon development.
7.4. Views of our membersThere are a number of ways in which IMPACT could potentially work with its members to promote a just transition to a low-carbon economy. In order to elicit responses to this report among IMPACT members, we undertook two workshops andcirculated a questionnaire (see appendix) to selected members. This allowed us to come to a better understand members’views on the opportunities for promoting a just transition within the union.
Overall there was a view expressed by respondents that climate change was not an issue with a very high profile within theorganisation, or the Irish labour movement more generally. Members, understandably, tend to be more directly affected bytraditional issues affecting workers, in the areas of pay, conditions, industrial relations etc. and to make greater demands oftheir union in these respects. It was emphasised, therefore, that it is important for IMPACT to be realistic about the startingpoint for any proposed efforts or activities in the area of climate change and just transition to a low-carbon economy.
Given this starting point there was a view expressed that IMPACT has a role in awareness raising among its members, bothon the issue of climate change, but also on the potential impacts for workers and particular sectors. The “Water is a HumanRight” campaign, which gained a significant amount of traction among members, was identified as a possible exemplar ofwhat is possible. Promoting greater awareness can be achieved, members felt, by ensuring that the issue is promoted usinga variety of communication tools at IMPACT’s disposal, including: the website, Work Life, the newsletter, conferences, branchmeetings etc. Having an active working group or standing committee or climate change was another option identified bymembers to raise awareness “on the ground”.
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Members who responded to the questionnaire and attended workshops also agreed that there was a role to be played byIMPACT in promoting a just transition framework in government policy. There was consensus that this should involvepromoting consideration of the impact of climate change on “ordinary workers”, and ensuring that measures are “socially andregionally proofed”. Consideration could also be given to integrating a focus on just transition into collective bargaining inthe next round of negotiations as appropriate.
Some of the specific issues identified as important by members were as follows:
• Promoting local ownership of distributed power generation assets, particularly the role of co-operatives.
• The issue of sustainable public transport was an issue raised by several participants: traveling to and from workaccounts for a large part of workers’ carbon footprints, and investment in a decent public transport system in allareas of the country should therefore be central element to tackling emissions from transport. It is equally importantfor quality of life.
• More flexible working arrangements could also reduce the commuting footprint and was identified as area wherepromoting better working conditions and a just transition overlap.
• Ensuring that expenses arrangements are designed in a manner that doesn’t mitigate against workers using publictransport or cycling for work-related activities.
Finally, some members expressed a view that IMPACT could promote greener workplaces using partnership committees orequivalent structures. A good example of this is the Green Team that was established some year ago by the EPA’s partnershipcommittee. It raises awareness across the organisation and promotes sustainable workplace practices. This led to thedevelopment of an Environmental Management System that has been certified to ISO 14001. Best practices like these couldbe shared and promoted across all organisations where IMPACT has members.
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Ireland’s decarbonisation has fallen behind what is required by international targets. We believe that this can in part beascribed to an insufficient focus on the social impacts of low-carbon development, which in turn has resulted in themobilisation of local communities and certain cohorts in society in opposition to low-carbon transition.
Within this context, IMPACT calls for a just transition framework to be applied to Ireland’s low-carbon development. At itscore this is an approach to deep decarbonisation that requires a fair distribution of the costs and benefits of low-carbontransition (and climate policies) across the economy. The transition towards a low-carbon economy must be fair, maximisingopportunities for economic prosperity, social justice, rights and social protection for all. This will require a greater focus onthe social and jobs dimension of low-carbon development in policy formulation and in the design of incentives. It requires amix of macroeconomic, industrial, sectoral, social protection, skills training, social dialogue and labour policies that create anenabling environment for low-carbon enterprises to prosper. The aim should be to generate decent jobs for all in high valueadded sectors.
Ensuring a just transition for affected workers, enterprises and communities entails efforts to identify affected local, regionalor national economies, as well as vulnerable cohorts in society. It also requires efforts to diversify the economy in these regionsby building relevant knowledge and providing training or reskilling programmes. It requires proactive management of socialdislocation arising from low-carbon development. This can be achieved by ensuring that incentives are designed in a mannerthat is attractive to local citizens and vulnerable communities in these regions, to whom low-carbon development can bringeconomic vibrancy if it is advanced within a just transition framework.
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8. Conclusions
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The following questions were sent to IMPACT members and discussed in workshops, based on a draft version of this report:
1. Within the context of a just transition to a low-carbon economy, what policies and strategies should IMPACT bepromoting in Government?
2. Should IMPACT play a role in ensuring that incentives and all policies and measures are designed with social justice andthe promotion participation from community and voluntary organisations at their heart?
3. How should IMPACT seek to promote the pivotal role of workers’ organizations in a just transition? What can IMPACTsworkers contribute?
4. What are the key skills and training gaps within your (local government, healthcare, voluntary sector,telecommunications, education) sector from low-carbon development?
5. What are the key challenges to jobs in your (local government, healthcare, voluntary sector, telecommunications, oreducation) sector from low-carbon development?
6. What are the key opportunities within your sector (local government, healthcare, voluntary sector, telecommunications,or education) sector from low-carbon development?
7. How can IMPACT raise awareness and understanding and provide guidance among our members about developmentsrelevant to the just transition framework, low-carbon development, decent work and green jobs for women and men?
8. What schemes could IMPACT promote to help employers and employees work together to set and meet environmentaltargets?
9. Should IMPACT develop a Standing Committees on just transition?
10. Could IMPACT develop information on how climate change can be addressed at workplace level and through collectivebargaining?
11. Could IMPACT play a greater role ensuring enterprises/employers comply with environmental regulations such asemission reductions?
Appendix
WWW.IMPACT.IE
CORKFather Matthew Quay, Cork, T12 EWV0.
Ph: 021-425-5210 • Email: [email protected]
DUBLINNerney’s Court, Dublin, D01 R2C5.
Ph: 01-817-1500 • Email: [email protected]
GALWAYUnit 23, Sean Mulvoy Business Park, Sean Mulvoy Road, Galway, H91 HT27.
Ph: 091-778-031 • Email: [email protected]
LIMERICKRoxborough Road, Limerick, V94 YY31.Ph: 061-319-177 • Email: [email protected]
SLIGOIce House, Fish Quay, Sligo, F91 HHX4.
Ph: 071-914-2400 • Email: [email protected]
IMPACT Trade Union @IMPACTTU