a latin oil gas - canacol · pdf fileshale oil light oil light oil natural gas

18
Creating A Latin America Oil & Gas Leader June 2016

Upload: trinhcong

Post on 15-Mar-2018

240 views

Category:

Documents


2 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: A Latin Oil Gas - Canacol  · PDF fileShale Oil Light Oil Light Oil Natural Gas

Creating A Latin America Oil & Gas LeaderJune 2016

Page 2: A Latin Oil Gas - Canacol  · PDF fileShale Oil Light Oil Light Oil Natural Gas

Forward Looking Statements

This presentation may include certain forward looking statements. All statements other thanstatements of historical fact, included herein, including, without limitation, statementsregarding future plans and objectives of Canacol Energy Ltd. (“Canacol” or the“Corporation”), are forward‐looking statements that involve various risks, assumptions,estimates, and uncertainties. These statements reflect the current internal projections,expectations or beliefs of Canacol and are based on information currently available to theCorporation. There can be no assurance that such statements will prove to be accurate, andactual results and future events could differ materially from those anticipated in suchstatements. All of the forward looking statements contained in this presentation are qualifiedby these cautionary statements and the risk factors described above. Furthermore, all suchstatements are made as of the date this presentation is given and Canacol assumes noobligation to update or revise these statements.

Barrels of Oil EquivalentBarrels of oil equivalent (boe) is calculated using the conversion factor of 5.7 Mcf (thousandcubic feet) of natural gas being equivalent to one barrel of oil. Boes may be misleading,particularly if used in isolation. A boe conversion ratio of 5.7 Mcf:1 bbl (barrel) is based on anenergy equivalency conversion method primarily applicable at the burner tip and does notrepresent a value equivalency at the wellhead.

AcresAcres represents gross acres

Production and ReservesProduction represents net before royaltyReserves represent 2P reserves and before tax NPV‐10 as of December 31, 2015

Exploration Resource PotentialExploration resource potential represent management’s estimate of net unrisked recoverableresource potential, unless indicated otherwise

USDAll dollar amounts are shown in US dollars, unless indicated otherwise

Magdalena Valley, Colombia                                 2    

Page 3: A Latin Oil Gas - Canacol  · PDF fileShale Oil Light Oil Light Oil Natural Gas

GROWTH FORMULADemocratic security

+ Investor confidence+ Capital=  Sustainable growth

In The Late 90’s, Colombia LaunchedA New Growth Formula

Bogota, 2016

‐0.7%

2.2%

3.2%

3.7%

3.7%

4.3%

4.5%

5.2%

‘00 → ‘15 average growth rateSource:  ‘15  World Bank 

Peru

Colombia

Chile

Argentina

LATAM 

Mexico

Brazil

Venezuela

Colombia treats capital with respect’15 World Bank Investor Protection Index

10 

30 

35 

40 

56 

62 Colombia

Brazil

Peru

Chile 

LATAM

Mexico 

Argentina

Venezuela3

Page 4: A Latin Oil Gas - Canacol  · PDF fileShale Oil Light Oil Light Oil Natural Gas

Colombia’s Growth Formula Is Driving  A Boom In Capital Flows

'03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15

Cumulative FDI in Colombia (1)US $ in MM        E&P        All other industries

Colombia is capital friendly‘15  OECD foreign direct investment (“FDI”)restrictiveness index

• ‘03 →’15: Canada, U.S. and U.K. invested over US $45 billion, or ~35% of FDI

• ‘03 →’15: Oil and gas‐related FDI increased from 16% → 30% of total capital inflows

• Cumulative US $39 billion invested in E&P

Canada‐U.S. 22% of totalU.K. 13%

US $130b

US $2b

(1) Balance of payments – Banco de la Republica

E&P30% 

4

launch

Page 5: A Latin Oil Gas - Canacol  · PDF fileShale Oil Light Oil Light Oil Natural Gas

Change Agent #1: Colombia’s National SecurityThursday, June 23, 2016 – a historic day in Colombia’s history

• ‘99 Plan Colombia / National Security Policy• Extraordinary plan to counter the war on drugs

• Vastly improved security environment is unlocking decades of pent‐up growth

• June 23, 2016 signed agreement – bilateral and final ceasefire• End to all hostilities, decommission weapons, 

offer security guarantees and install criminal  prosecutions

Colombian President Santos and FARC Rebel                 Leader Londono sign agreement

5

Page 6: A Latin Oil Gas - Canacol  · PDF fileShale Oil Light Oil Light Oil Natural Gas

Change Agent #2: Colombia’s Oil & Gas Regulation

• ‘03 Pro‐business restructuring of Colombia’s oil & gas regulatory model  • Unleashed one of the most attractive E&P 

regimes in the world

• Latin America’s oldest and most stable democracy (1886)

• Solid legal system

• Strong pursuit of the country’s richly                    endowed hydrocarbons 

6

Source: ANH and Barclays Capital E&P Research based WTI $50/Bbl, effective June ‘16

Colombia’s old vs. new oil gas regulatory model

After 2003  

Before 2003

Page 7: A Latin Oil Gas - Canacol  · PDF fileShale Oil Light Oil Light Oil Natural Gas

‘03 ‘09 Today‘05

Exploration              Exploitation              ANH TEA               Available

Evolution of Colombia’s E&P land base

• Pre ANH launch, early ‘03• 31 MM prospective E&P acres• 8% contracted

• Today• 253 MM prospective E&P acres• 53% contracted• 80+ oil & gas companies                                    

(super‐majors to startups)

Capital Is Finding Many E&P Opportunities8x increase in exploration area

7

launch

Page 8: A Latin Oil Gas - Canacol  · PDF fileShale Oil Light Oil Light Oil Natural Gas

A New Era In Colombia E&P

528  527 

588 

786 

944 990 

951 

'03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16

Oil production doubledANHAvg. bopd in 000s

• Yet only 25% of Colombia’s ~50b barrels of resource potential have been discovered(1)

• Prolific geology • Richly endowed hydrocarbon base• Freedom to market to any continent

(1) Source ANH, Ecopetrol

launch

Cumulative ANH investment & executionANHAvg. bopd in 000s

US $4b

'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16

8

Page 9: A Latin Oil Gas - Canacol  · PDF fileShale Oil Light Oil Light Oil Natural Gas

• Colombia is in the early innings• 8 bid rounds to date• 640 E&P licenses offered• Growth delayed due to country issues

• Growth delay theme is crystallized by Canacol’s 79 MMboe of conventional 2P reserves • Vs. the rest of the world is forced to find and 

produce unconventional hydrocarbons

• Accenture considers Colombia’s oil & gas regulatory reform  1 of 3 finest in history• Develop and manage geological information• Assess/promote opportunity• Foster industry partnerships• Frequency of bid rounds• Rule of law

Accenture Ranks Colombia’s Oil & Gas Regulatory Reform In The Top 3(1)

Top 3 country reformations

Years elapsed

Bid rounds

UK1970

44

42

Norway1972

46

34

Colombia2003

13

8

(1) Accenture Global Consulting “Strategy Energy”, March 20169

Page 10: A Latin Oil Gas - Canacol  · PDF fileShale Oil Light Oil Light Oil Natural Gas

10

Ecuador

70 140 280 420 560

Km

Colombia

S. Pacific Ocean

Canacol

Supply‐scarce Caribbean natural gas market  • Board/management team with 60+ years 

cumulative experience operating in Colombia E&P• Headquartered in Calgary, Alberta• ‘08 launch• Dual listed on TSX and BVC• Enterprise value US $800 MM• Exploration success (‘08→) 65%• Insider ownership ~25%• ’16e guidance 16 – 17,000 boepd

• YE 2015 2P reserves      79 MMboe• Y/Y reserves replacement 1,103%• 2P F&D cost $2.85/boe• Long reserves life ~10 yrs.

• Substantial exploration 1,045 MMboeresource potential(1)• Blocks / gross acres 23 / 3.4 MM

Canacol Today

(1) Management’s estimate of net unriskedrecoverable resource potential

Shale Oil

Light Oil

Light Oil

Natural Gas

Page 11: A Latin Oil Gas - Canacol  · PDF fileShale Oil Light Oil Light Oil Natural Gas

• Sourcing of opportunities• Jump‐start with land acquisition and/or M&A• Evaluated

• Over 75 mm net prospective acres• 150 potential transactions • Over 20 farm‐ins• Participated in 5 bid rounds

• Building a portfolio to weather any setting• Four acquisitions since ‘08• Total purchase price  US $228MM• Current NPV‐10 US $1.3 b• Four‐fold increase in 2P reserves

• De‐risk through exploration and expand through development

Rigorous Approach To E&P Portfolio Management

‘08 ‘11 ‘12 ‘14

OIL GAS

4 acquisitions since launch

Scorecard

(1) Management’s estimate of net unrisked recoverable resource potential 11

Page 12: A Latin Oil Gas - Canacol  · PDF fileShale Oil Light Oil Light Oil Natural Gas

12

Key Portfolio ComponentsLarge gas reserves underpin production and cash flow for a decade

(1)  Includes 21 MMboe of production since inception through 12/31/15(2) Excludes 21 MMboe of production since inception through 12/31/15(3) Management’s estimate of net unrisked recoverable resource potential (4) DeGolyer & MacNaugton unrisked mean prospective oil resources, effective June ‘14

17 

65 

14 

'09 '11 '13 '15

82% gas

+52% CAGR in 2P reserves(1) • Dry natural gas – [stable cash flow]                         • ‘12 and ‘14 2 acquisitions• ‘13 → present 3 large discoveries• 2P reserves 372 BCF (65 MMboe)• Exploration resource >3 TCF                                           

potential(3)

• Light oil optionality – [flexible approach]• 2P reserves 14 MMbls• LLA 23 exploration 33 MMbls

resource potential(3)

• Large shale oil opportunity – [call option]• Exploration resource 458 MMbls

potential(4)

79(2)

7 811

18

35

43

18

20

23

2P reserves in MMboeoil         gas

Over the last 5‐yrs, Canacol has discovered  more natural gas than every other Colombian explorer, combined

Page 13: A Latin Oil Gas - Canacol  · PDF fileShale Oil Light Oil Light Oil Natural Gas

Canacol Doesn’t Lose Sleep Over Oil PricesPursuit of dry natural gas that features stable pricing

Best gas pricingQuarterly average MMbtu

$0

$3

$6

$9

$12

Mar'14

Jun'14

Sep'14

Dec'14

Mar'15

Jun'15

Sep'15

Dec'15

Mar'16

2016e

Canacol

US

Canada

LT gas contracts with price escalation

1 2 3 4 5

$30 /Bbl

$15

WTI oil price sensitivity

$60/Bbl

$45

$0/Bbl

Oil prices at  zero? Canacol generates ~$100MM EBITDAX

EBITDAX in US$ MM

$107 MM

$118

$130 MM$142

$153 MM

13

Canacol breakeven < $5.00/boe

88% of Canacol’s production is insensitive to low oil prices

Page 14: A Latin Oil Gas - Canacol  · PDF fileShale Oil Light Oil Light Oil Natural Gas

Canacol         Gas pipeline      

La Creciente

Cartagena

Ballena

Chuchupa

Caribbean Sea

Cerro Matosomine

12

Barranquilla

3

15 30 60 90 120

Km

• Supply decreasing 20% / yr. from coastal fields[‐100 MMcf/d per year decline](1)

• Demand increased 3% / yr. for the past 10‐yrs.             and projected to grow at 3‐4% through 2026

• +65 MMcf/d from new 2016 pipeline • Flows north / south 65 / 25 MMcf/d south• Total production 90 MMcf/d• Gas EBITDAX/yr.  $135 MM

• +100 MMcf/d from planned 2018 pipeline• Total production 190 MMcf/d• Gas EBITDAX/yr.  $310 MM• By 2020e, Canacol will supply ~42% of the coast

1 2 3Chuchupa Ballena La Creciente

2016pipeline

65 MMcf/d

(1) Average annual decline for each of the trailing 2 years

2018pipeline

25 MMcf/d

14

4 fields 100% WI

~785k acres

+100 MMcf/d

Epic Gas Deficit On Colombia’s Coast Plan to boost gas production and solve over 75% of the Caribbean’s lost supply

Page 15: A Latin Oil Gas - Canacol  · PDF fileShale Oil Light Oil Light Oil Natural Gas

A Leader In Capital EfficiencyThe lowest cost producer typically wins

• ’16e plan Spend $58 MM to generate $135 MM EBITDAX 3 natural wells and 5 light‐oil workovers One well / yr. ($4.6 MM D&A) to maintain current gas 

production

• 3 natural gas exploration wells targeting 100 Bcf(1)  Mar ‘16 Oboe‐1 well test 66 MMcf/d Nispero‐1 well spud early 3Q ’16 Nelson‐6 well spud early 4Q ’16 New gas sales contracts

• Reactivate oil exploration when pricing cooperates

(1) Management’s estimate of net unrisked recoverable resource potential

Natural Gas4 blocks2P reserves 372 BCF

Light oil5 discoveries3 prospective trends to repeat

15

Page 16: A Latin Oil Gas - Canacol  · PDF fileShale Oil Light Oil Light Oil Natural Gas

• Five light oil discoveries made along Rancho Hermoso fault trend

• Exceptional on‐block track record for exploration success (83%, 5/6 wells)

• Three additional trends remain undrilled

• Multiple prospects are drill‐ready

• At $50/Bbl+ WTI• Target four drill ready prospects situated 

along flow line for short and immediate tie‐in e.g. Pumara prospect

• Significant upside in success case

Successful Exploration on Block LLA‐23With a lot more running room

16

Prospect/Leads Wells Gross Unrisked EUR (MMbbl)

3D prospects 13 20

Leads 5 16

Total 18 36

Las Maracas~12 MMbls 

Macarenas~6 MMbls

Cravo E~8 MMbls

Cravo S~9 MMbls

Labrador

3

2

1

91% WI>110k acres

LLA 23

Rancho Hermoso

Maltes

Tigro

Pantro

Leono

Labrador

Labrador

Pumara Prospect

Canacol’s fields & discoveries

Prospects

Leads

3 Opportunities trends to repeat

3D seismic

Competitor oil fields

Leono‐Pointer fluids flow line

Pointer CPF

1

Page 17: A Latin Oil Gas - Canacol  · PDF fileShale Oil Light Oil Light Oil Natural Gas

• World class shale oil• Source rock to 2.3 trillion barrels discovered in Ecuador, Colombia and Venezuela(1)

• Comparable or superior characteristics to the Bakken and Eagle Ford

• Second largest shale oil land position behind Ecopetrol

• 7 blocks 749k net acres

• Potential 458 MMbls of audited unriskedprospective resource potential

• NPV‐10 $1.3 B(2)

• Early indications are positive• Farmed out acreage to Super Majors (‘11 – ‘12)• Two wells drilled de‐risked play (‘12 – ’15)• First frac planned this year by Conoco

Long Term Shale Oil Opportunity In Colombia

0 650 km

Oil Fields sourced from La LunaMiddle Magdalena Valley Basin (MMV)La Luna shale deposition limit

Orinoco heavy oil belt

Venezuela

Colombia

Ecuador

(1) James 2000, Journal of Petroleum Geology(2) Only three of Canacol’s seven blocks

17

Page 18: A Latin Oil Gas - Canacol  · PDF fileShale Oil Light Oil Light Oil Natural Gas

True Investment Opportunity In A Rudderless E&P World

• Colombia’s vastly improved security and E&P regulatory environment is unlocking decades of pent‐up growth potential

• Canacol was an early‐mover in securing prime acreage

• Years of rigorous execution and discipline provide an E&P portfolio that can weather any environment

• Our balanced resource‐capture strategy and strong track record are the ingredients for continued success

• Canacol doesn’t lose sleep over oil prices• Pursuit of dry natural gas that generates > $100 MM 

in EBITDAX/yr. when oil is priceless18