- a leading power and heat company in the nordic area · 2020. 3. 30. · fortum's carbon...
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- a leading power and heat companyin the Nordic area
Presentation for investorsFebruary 2009
2
Disclaimer
This presentation does not constitute an invitation to underwrite, subscribe for, or otherwise acquire or dispose of any Fortum shares.
Past performance is no guide to future performance, and persons needing advice should consult an independent financial adviser.
3
• Fortum today• European power markets• Russia• Financials and outlook
4
We intend to keep our leading position
To be the benchmark power and heat company excelling in sustainability
High ethicsCo-operative spiritExcellent performance
Fortum focuses on the Nordic, Russian and Baltic Rim markets as a platform for profitable growth Become the leading power and heat company
Become the energysupplier of choice
Benchmark business performance
Vision
Strategy
Values
Core Purpose
"Our energy improves life for present and future generations"
Creativity and innovation
5
Our geographical presence today
Nordic countriesGeneration 51.6 TWhElectricity sales 59.1 TWhHeat sales 20.0 TWhDistribution cust. 1.6 millionElectricity cust. 1.3 million
Nr 1
Nr 2
Heat
Electricity sales
Distribution
Power generation
TGC-1 (~25%)Power generation ~7 TWhHeat sales ~7 TWh
2008 data
TGC-10* Power generation 16.6 TWhHeat sales 25.7 TWh
*pro forma
Russia
PolandHeat sales 3.6 TWh Electricity sales 18 GWh
Baltic countriesHeat sales 1.3 TWh Distribution cust. 24,000
6
Strong growth in EBITDA and in cash flow
Net debt
4 345 4 466
6 179
0
1 500
3 000
4 500
6 000
7 500
2006 2007 2008
MEUR
EBITDA
2 4782 066
1 884
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
2006 2007 2008
MEUR
Adjusted net debt/EBITDA (LTM)
2.3 2.22.5
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
2006 2007 2008
Sales gain From Lenenergo shares
Total net cash from operating activities
1 1511 550
2 002
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2006 2007 2008
MEUR
Additional dividend from Hafslund
7
Growing capital returns
Total ~ 5,965 MEUR
1999 2001 20032000 2002 2004
0.18 0.23 0.26 0.310.42
0.58
2005
1.12
Dividend per shareEUR
0.13
1998
0.58
0.54
2006
1.26
0.73
0.53
• Dividend of EUR 1.00 per share proposed to the AGM, in total ~EUR 0.9 billion
• Dividend policy of 50 - 60% payout of previous year's results on the average
2007
1.35
0.77
0.58
2008
1.00
8
Fortum Markets
Large customers
Fortum in the Nordic electricity value chain
Small customers
Other retail companies
Fortum Distribution
Transmission and system services
Nordic wholesale
market
Nordic wholesale
market
Nord Pool and bilateral
FortumPower
Generation
Deregulated
Regulated
9
Fortum's European power and heat production by source
Total production 25.0 TWh (Production capacity 10,468 MW)
Fortum's heat production in 2008
Oil 4%
Peat 7%Heat pumps, electricity 13%
Waste 7%
Biomass fuels20%
Natural gas16%Other 10%
Coal 23%
Hydro power 44%
Peat 1%
Coal 4%
Other 2%
Nuclear power 45%
Biomass 2%
Total generation 52.6 TWh (Generation capacity 10,788 MW)
Fortum's power generation in 2008
Natural gas 2%
10
Fortum's carbon exposure is among the lowest in Europe
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
DEI
Nuo
n
RW
E
Dra
x
CEZ
Sco
ttish
&S
outh
ern
Uni
on F
enos
a
Ende
sa
Ene
l
EDP
Vat
tenf
all
Don
g En
ergy
E.O
N
Elec
trabe
l
PVO
Iber
drol
a
EDF
Brit
ish
Ene
rgy
Verb
und
Fortu
m
Sta
tkra
ft
g CO 2/kWh electricity
Source:PWC & Enerpresse , 2008Changement climatique et Électricit é
Average 373 g/kWh
2007
g CO 2/kWh electricity
Source:PWC & Enerpresse , 2008Changement climatique et Électricit é
Average 373 g/kWh
64
Fortum 2008: 41 gCO2/kWh
1111
• Olkiluoto 3, Finland, nuclear• Swedish nuclear• Suomenoja, Finland (gas CHP)• Järvenpää, Finland (biomass CHP)• Brista, Sweden (waste CHP)• Refurbishing of existing hydro assets• Wind power, Sweden• Częstochowa, Poland (coal/biomass CHP)• Tartu, Estonia (biomass/peat CHP)• Pärnu, Estonia (biomass/peat CHP)
Fortum's investment programme – Nordic region, Poland and Baltic countries
MW (El.) MW (Heat)
400300240 220
25 5520 60
1501065 12025 5025 45
EUR 200-500 million per annum until 2013– electricity capacity ~1,200 MW– Nuclear investments in associated company balance sheets– ~80% CO2-free
12
Foreign investors 35.4%Finnish State 50.8%
Other Finnish investors 7.2%
Households 5.1% Financial and insurance institutions 1.5%
• Leading power and heat company in Nordic• Listed at the Helsinki Stock Exchange 1998• More than 50,000 shareholders• Among the most traded shares in Helsinki stock exchange• Market cap ~14 billion euros
A leading Nordic power and heat company
31 January 2009
13
• Fortum today• European power markets• Russia• Financials and outlook
14
Key EU objectives by 2020
Competitiveness Sustainability
Security of supply
• Implementation of internal energy markets
• Energy efficiency +20% (2020)
• Increased resources for technology development
• Development of cross-border transmission• Increase in own production• Enhancement of external energy relations
• Minimum reduction of EU CO2 emissions 20% (2020)
• Renewables 20% (2020)• Development of CO2
capture and storage
15
Huge need for new capacity
Globally ... ... European wide ... ... and in Russia
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2006, reference scenario for generation1 Production 2004: 17 408 TWh/IEA 2006
1,700
1 000
1 200
1 400
1 600
1 800
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
700+ TWh by 2020
Source: Ministry of Industry and Energy
Existing/remaining productionDemand
Source: Eurprog 2006; Europe, EU27; Fortum
1,300 TWh
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
2000 2005 2010E2015E2020E
TWh TWh
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
~10,000 TWh
20041 2010E 2020E
TWh 2,000
16
Demand is growing – new capacity is needed in the Nordic market
*) Partly decommissioned due to increasing environmental requirements, partly replaced by more efficient new plants; may still be available as peak-load capacity.
Nuclear OL3
Nuclear upgrades
Hydro
CHP
Thermal
Wind
Committed new production ~45 TWh
Demand forecasts for the Nordic market
• Electricity demand is expected to increase by ~35 TWh by 2020 compared to 2007
• Estimated retiring generation approx. 35 TWh*)
• Total need for investments roughly 70 TWh– decisions for another 25 TWh still needed
370
380
390
400
410
420
430
440
450
460
470
2010 2015 2020
TWh
Fortum
Eurprog
DG TREN
Vattenfall
Svensk Energi high
Svensk Energi low
17
New capacity, except nuclear, will require over 60 EUR/MWh power price
0102030405060708090
100110
Source: Nord Pool
1995 -97 -99 -01 -05 -07 -09 -11 -13-03
EUR/MWh
Futures4 February 2009
Other costs ( variation)CO2 cost
Coal Gas Nuclear Hydro Wind Cleancoal
EUR/MWh
0102030405060708090
100110
Estimated lifetime average cost in nominal 2014 terms.Large variations in cost of new hydro and wind due to location and conditions.
18
Current transmission capacity from Nordic area to Continental Europe is ~4000 MW
Countries Stations Transmissioncapacity MW
From Nordel To Nordel
Denmark - Germany 2100 1550
Sweden - Germany 600 600
Sweden - Poland 600 600
Norway - Netherlands 700 700
Total 4000 3450
700
2100 600 600
350
• Theoretical maximum in transmission capacity ~35 TWhper annum
• 2007 net export from Nordic area to Continental Europe was ~9 TWh
• Approximately 20 TWh net export fairly easily reachable• NorNed was taken into use in May 2008
19
Additional700 MW cable NO-NL
studied
New investments could double capacity to Continent by 2020Present interconnections from the Nordic market to the Continent have a total capacity of abt. 4000 MW
New interconnections could double the capacity to over 8000 MW by 2020
700 -1400 MW NO-DE studied
DK-NL link studied
Baltic Wind Link 1100 MW studied to connect SE, DK and DE through the Kriegers Flak
offshore wind park
Jylland – DE capacity to be increased by 500 MW in 2011
and by further 500 MW by 2017
PolLit Link of 1000 MW planned to connect the Baltic market to Poland
by 2012-2016. It would also open a new transmission route from the Nordic market to the
Continent
In the EU's Second Strategic Energy Review the Commission focuses strongly on interconnecting the Baltic states and
Poland to form an electricity market around the Baltic Sea
New internal Nordic grid investments
provide for increased available capacity for export from southern Sweden, Norway and
Denmark
20
Market coupling milestones
• Market coupling between Belgium (BelPEX), Netherlands (APX) and France (Powernext) since November 2006
• Market coupling EEX - Nord Pool started 29 September 2008 but was on 8th October suspended until Q1/'09 due to technical problems
• Market coupling NL-Nord Pool 2009 trough the NordNedcable
– during 2009 implicit auctions, synchronized with market coupling Nord Pool-Germany and Germany-BE/NL/FR
• Market coupling agreement signed in June for DE-F-BeNeLux.
– during 2009• NL-UK planned trough the BritNed cable• Integration of the Baltic power market into the Nordic power
market is discussed– Baltic Spot price area not before Q3 2009 due to Estonian law
change requirements• Fingrid is studying possibilities to increase flexibility in
electricity trade with Russia
Existin
g
2009
Q32008
2010
21
Source: Nord Pool
Nordic water reservoirs
rese
rvoi
r con
tent
(TW
h)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1996 2007 reference level2008 2009
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49week
22
Nord Pool year forwards
Year 06 Year 07 Year 08 Year 09 Year 10 Year 11 Year 12 Year 13 Year 14€/MWh3 February 2009
2005 2006Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2007Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2008Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2009
1015202530354045505560
70
05
65
75
23
Wholesale prices for electricity
Source: , ATS
Spot prices Forward pricesEUR/MWh
Dutch
German
Nordic
Russian*
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
* Including capacity tariff estimate. E.g 2009 11 €/MWh
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
30 January 2009
24
Fuel and CO2 allowance prices
Source: ; market prices February 2009; 2009-2010 future quotations
CO2 price (EUA)
05
101520253035
EUR
/ tC
O2
2005 2006 20092007 2008 2010
Crude oil price (Brent)
020406080
100120
USD
/ bb
l
140160
2005 2006 20092007 2008 2010
Coal price (API2)240
04080
200
120160
USD
/ t
2005 2006 20092007 2008 2010
Gas price (NBP)
020406080
100120
GB
p/ t
herm
2005 2006 20092007 2008 2010
25
Nordic power generation mix
Source: Nordel
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Denmark Norway Sweden Finland
Fossil fuels
Nuclear
Waste
Biomass
Wind
Hydro
TWh/a
Total Nordic generation 397 TWh in 2007
4
19
10
214
63
87
TWh
Hydro variance +/- 40 TWh from average
Net import in 2007: 3TWh
1
5
3
54
16
22
%
26
Still a highly fragmented Nordic power market
SEAS-NVE
Fortum
Vattenfall
Others
Hafslund
E.ON50%
HelsinkiStatkraft
GöteborgSyd Energi
Dong Energy
Electricity distribution14 million customers~500 companies
Power generation397 TWh
>350 companies
Fortum
Vattenfall
Dong Energy
Others
Statkraft
30%
E.ONPVO
E-CO Energi
BKKNorsk Hydro
Helsinki
Electricity retail14 million customers~350 companies
51%
Helsinki
Dong Energy
Fortum
VattenfallOthers
E.ON51%
Hafslund
SEAS-NVEStatkraft
ÖstkraftÖresundskraft
Current market shares based on 2007 figures, active players
27
Economic downturn has affected power consumption
• Nordic paper and metal companies have announced plant closures and temporary production cuts
• Power demand has decreased the most in Finland; the biggest share of energy intensive industry among the Nordic countries
• In the longer term, electricity consumption in the Nordic countries is still predicted to increase by less than 1% a year
Power demand decreased in all Nordic countries except Norway in 2008 …
… and the most dramatic decline in demand took place during Q4 / 2008
% c
hang
e (Q
4)
Sweden
Norway
Finland
Denmark
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
- 5%
Nordic
Preliminary estimates
% c
hang
e (fr
om y
ear 2
007)
Sweden
Norway
Finland
Denmark
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
- 1%
Nordic
Preliminary estimates
28
• Fortum today• European power markets• Russia• Financials and outlook
29
Russia is the World’s 4th largest power market – and growing rapidly
Source: IEA, 2008, data 2006*) Ministry of Industry and Energy
8001,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,0002,200
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
1,700
2,000
0500
1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,000
USChin
aJa
pan
Russia
India
Canad
a
German
y
France
Brazil
Nordic UK
South
Korea
TWh
Demand growth 700+ TWhbefore year 2020
• High scenario 2,000 TWh/a by 2020• Base scenario: 1,700 TWh/a by 2020
Russia is the 4th largest power market in the World
Demand for electricity in Russia to increase 50% by 2020 *)
30
TGC-10
Surgut
Kurgan
Tyumen
TobolskMoscow
St. Petersburg
Chelyabinsk
NyaganKhanty-Mansisk
TGC-1
Fortum's current holdings in Russia
• Fortum holding 93.4% at the moment (income statement consolidated from 1 April 2008)• TGC-10 operates in the heart of Russia’s oil and gas producing region• EUR 2.5 billion paid of which EUR 1.3 billion remains in the company (share issue) and
will be used for planned investment program of TGC-10• The acquisition adds appr. 18 TWh/a electricity and appr. 27 TWh/a heat• Annual efficiency improvement approximately EUR 100 million in 2011• Marginally earnings dilutive for two years• Fortum's management model in place since September 2008
TGC-10
TGC-1• Fortum holding 25.7% at the moment (associated company) • ~6,250 MW electricity production capacity (appr. 50% hydro), ~24 TWh/a electricity, ~30 TWh/a heat
31
"Power industry law" approved 2003Establishment of Russian power exchange (ATS) 2001Launch of the free-trade sector of the wholesale market
in European & Urals 2003in Siberia 2005
Launch of balancing power segment 2006Launch of new wholesale market model 2006Restructuring of regional "energos" (P&H companies) completeFormation of new companies completeCapacity market – transitional model 2008Long term capacity market model 2009Competitive market of ancillary services 2009Financial derivatives market 2009Full liberalisation of the wholesale market 2011 onwards
Key steps in the reform
Russian power industry reform has progressed well
Time
32
Reform – Recent and planned events for 2009
• RAO UES ceased to exist in June 2008 • Market Council established to continue
the power market development• Interest promotion organisation for
GenCos established • Launch of Transitional Capacity Market • Liberalisation rate increased to 25%• First capacity auction held in July 2008• Daily gas trading experiments• Share issue completed in all TGC's and
WGC's except WGC-1• Launch of exchange traded combined
energy and capacity contracts
• Increase of power market liberalisation rate to 50%
• Launch of Long Term Capacity Market rules in March 2009
• First long term capacity auction at the end of 2009
• Daily trading of gas
• Launch of Ancillary Services Market
• Launch of Financial Derivatives Market
Events taken place in 2008 Planned events during 2009
33
Further power market liberalisation
5 %10 %
15 %25 %
30 %
50 %60 %
80 %100 %
0 %
10 %
20 %
30 %
40 %
50 %
60 %
70 %
80 %
90 %
100 %
1/1/
2007
7/1/
2007
1/1/
2008
7/1/
2008
1/1/
2009
7/1/
2009
1/1/
2010
7/1/
2010
1/1/
2011
100 %
• Further liberalisation of energy market to increase to 50% in July 2009
• The rate of liberalised volume is based on 2007 balance. All new capacity is sold with liberal prices
• The sales to households will remain regulated still after 2011
Share of liberalised trade (of capacity)
34
Currently 30% of electricity sold with liberalised prices
• Day-Ahead-Market for electricity well-functioning and competitive
• All volume sold to Day-Ahead-Market, but market based price formation for about 30% of the volume
1) In addition generators currently receive on average about 11 EUR/MWh capacity paymentUsed EUR/RUB daily exchange rate
European and Urals part power price 1)
development; EUR/MWh
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
€/M
Wh
2006 2008 20092007
35
ChelyabinskKurgan
Tyumen
NyaganTobolsk
Moscow
2007 2013
MW
+73%+2,270 MW
3,020
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
5,290
Investment programme of TGC-10
Electricity capacity (MW)Plant Fuel type Existing Planned Total
Tyumen CHP-2 Gas 755 450 1,205Tyumen CHP-1 Gas 472 190 662Tobolsk CHP Gas 452 210 662Chelyabinsk CHP-3 Gas 360 220 580Chelyabinsk CHP-2 Coal, gas 320 320Argayash CHP Coal, gas 195 195Chelyabinsk CHP-1 Coal, gas 149 149Chelyabinsk GRES Gas 82 82Nyagan GRES Gas 1,200 1,200Boilers -
TGC-10 3,020 2,270 5,290Kurgan Generation (49%) Gas 235 235
36
Efficiency improvement appr. 100 MEUR in 2011
• Purchasing
• Portfolio Management and Trading (PMT)
• Heat regulation
• Heat - technical and business improvements
• Generation - technical improvements
• Others
37
• Fortum today• European power markets• Russia• Financials and outlook
38
Operational performance improved by 18%
Low sales margin in Markets
MEUR Higher achieved price and higher hydro power production in Power Generation
Higher fuel and CO2costs in Heat
Distribution – one-time costs in 2007
The first year of integration in Russia
Comparable operating profit
-5-3217433
1845
1564
-92-40
PowerGeneration2007 Heat Distribution Markets Russia Other 2008
39
Income statement
MEUR IV/2008 IV/2007 2008 2007
Sales 1 602 1 320 5 636 4 479Expenses -991 -800 -3 673 -2 632
Operating profit 611 520 1 963 1 847Share of profit of associates and jv's 48 18 126 241Financial expenses, net -54 -37 -239 -154
Profit before taxes 605 501 1 850 1 934Income tax expense 2 -108 -254 -326
Net profit for the period 607 393 1 596 1 608Minority interest 44 25 54 56
EPS, basic (EUR) 0.64 0.41 1.74 1.74EPS, diluted (EUR) 0.64 0.41 1.74 1.74
40
Cash flow statement
MEUR IV/2008 IV/2007 2008 2007
Operating profit before depreciations 743 635 2 478 2 298
Non-cash flow items and divesting activities -237 -18 -275 -286
Financial items and taxes 273 -162 -99 -393
Funds from operations (FFO) 779 455 2 104 1 619
Change in working capital -217 -110 -102 51
Total net cash from operating activities 562 345 2 002 1 670
Paid capital expenditures -338 -251 -1 018 -592
Acquisition of shares -28 -28 -1 243 -285
Other investing activities 23 10 -21 268
Cash flow before financing activities 219 76 -280 1 061
41
MEUR 2008 2007 2006
EBITDA 2 478 2 298 1 884Cash flow from operations 2 002 1 670 1 151Interest-bearing net debt 6 179 4 466 4 345Shareholders' equity 7 954 8 359 7 908Balance sheet total 20 278 17 674 16 839Net debt/EBITDA* 2.5 2.2 2.3Return on capital employed (%)* 15.0 14.0 13.4Return on shareholders' equity (%)* 18.7 15.8 14.4
Key figures and ratios
*2007 adjusted for REC and Lenenergo gains
42
Current Fortum Group financial targets
Return on capital employed 12%
Return on shareholder's equity 14%
Net debt/EBITDA 3.0–3.5
43
Capital expenditures EUR 1 - 1.5 billion – significant flexibility
• Annual capital expenditures EUR 1–1.5 billion
• Maintenance/productivity EUR 300–500 million p.a.
• Growth in Nordic and Baltic rim countries EUR 200-500 million p.a.
• Investments in Russian growth on average EUR 500 million per annum
Maintenance
Growth
Russian growth
~ EUR 300–500 m
~ EUR 500 m
~ EUR 200–500 m
Esimated annual Capex 2009-2013
44
Good liquidity
MEUR Available Outstanding Total amountSHORT TERM FINANCING
Commercial Paper ProgrammesFinnish CP Programme 328 172 500SEK 5.000 M Swedish CP Programme 175 285 460
503 457 960LIQUID FUNDS AND COMMITTED CREDIT LINES
Committed Credit Lines Short Term 206 0 206Long Term 2 100 600 2 700
2 306 600 2 906Liquid FundsCash and cash equivalents 733Bank Deposits over 3 months 588
1 321of which in Russia 1 020
Total Available Cash and Committed Financing 3 627(~ 50% in euros, ~ 50% in roubles)
45
Debt maturity profile
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Y2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019+
Bonds Financial institutions Other long-term debt CPs Other short-term debt
MEUR
31 Dec, 2008 31 Dec, 2007Duration (years) 1,6 1,3Average interest rate (incl. swaps and forwards) 4,7 % 4,6 %Portion of floating / fixed debt 64 / 36 % 67 / 33 %
7592016:742017:12018:
2252015:
8812019+:
2462014:1.1042013:
4452012:2.2422011:
5432010:9802009:
MEUR
46
Hedging of Power Generation's Nordic sales
Hedge ratio Hedge price
rest of 2009 ~ 65% ~ EUR 53 per MWh
Status at the end of January 2009(Status at the beginning of October 2008)
(~55%) (~ EUR 53 per MWh)
2010 ~ 50% ~ EUR 46 per MWh(~20%) (~ EUR 55 per MWh)
47
• Flexible and climate-benign production portfolio
• Integration of Russian TGC-10 proceeding
• Growth through investment programmes in Russia and Baltic Rim countries
Fortum in a stable position
• Two new CHP plants to be commissioned in 2009
• Strong balance sheet and liquidity
• Good hedging positions
Fortum in a stable position to weather the turbulence,despite lower visibility beyond 2009
48