a look back at the bush drilling boom in the rockies

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Rocky M ountain StatesN aturalG as Production and ResidentialPrices $0 $2 $4 $6 $8 $10 $12 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 D ollars per Thous C ubic Ft 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% P ercentage ofTotalP roduction R ocky M ountain Average R esidential N atural G as Price P ercentage ofTotal U .S. N atural G as Production from the R ocky M ountains Isthis“environm entally friendly” drilling? Oilvolum esand probabilitiesforestim ating undiscovered quantities. There isa 95% chance ofatleastvolum e V 1 ofeconom ically recoverable oil,a 50% chance ofatleastV 3, and a 5% chance ofatleastV 2 ofeconom ically recoverableoil.Source:U SG S 2001 V3 Volum e ofgasincreasing Estim atesofthe energy potentialshould be based on the econom ically recoverable am ountofgas. Relying on technically recoverable estim ates exaggeratesthe energy potentialand the opportunity costs. Look Before You Leap Off the Natural Gas Bridge: Lessons from the Rockies Pete Morton, Ph.D. Director of Economics Senior Resource Economist Denver, CO October 2009

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During the Bush Administration, millions of acres of public lands in the Rockies were targeted for natural gas drilling. The change in the landscape is dramatic, with road networks built to service the natural gas fields, destroying and fragmenting wildlife habitat and threatening the tourism industry. Rifle, CO and Pinedale, WY are a few examples of boomtowns that had to deal with increases crime rate, more wear and tear on local infrastructure, and upward pressure on local wages and housing costs.

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Page 1: A Look Back at the Bush Drilling Boom in the Rockies

Rocky Mountain States Natural Gas Production and Residential Prices

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Do

llars

pe

r T

ho

us

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bic

Ft

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

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rce

nta

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of

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Rocky Mountain AverageResidential Natural Gas Price

Percentage of Total U.S.Natural Gas Production fromthe Rocky Mountains

Is this “environmentally friendly” drilling?

Oil volumes and probabilities for estimating undiscovered quantities. There is a 95% chance of at least volume V1 of economically recoverable oil,a 50% chance of at least V3, and a 5% chance of at least V2 of economically recoverable oil. Source: USGS 2001

V3

Volume of gas increasing

Estimates of the energy potential should be based on the economically recoverable amount of gas. Relying on technically recoverable estimates exaggerates the energy potential and the opportunity costs.

Look Before You Leap Off the Natural Gas Bridge: Lessons from the Rockies

Pete Morton, Ph.D.Director of EconomicsSenior Resource EconomistDenver, CO

October 2009

Page 2: A Look Back at the Bush Drilling Boom in the Rockies

A Look Back at the Bush Drilling Boom in the Rockies

Look Before You Leap Off the Natural Gas Bridge: Lessons from the Rockies

Morton, P. (2009)

Page 3: A Look Back at the Bush Drilling Boom in the Rockies

Millions of Acres in the Rockies are Targeted for Drilling by the Bush Administration

Yellowstone National Park

Glacier National Park

Arches and CanyonlandsNational Parks

Rocky Mountain Front, MT

Powder River Basin, WY

Green River Valley and Pinedale, WY

Uinta/Piceance Basin, and Rifle, CO

San Juan/Paradox Basin, and Durango, CO – Moab, UT

Millions of Acres of Public Land in the Rockies Were Targeted for Natural Gas Drilling by the Bush Administration

Morton, P. (2009)

Page 4: A Look Back at the Bush Drilling Boom in the Rockies

Wilderness-quality Public Land Leased for Oil and Natural Gas Drilling Since 2003

Colorado Utah

Bull Canyon Proposed WildernessSkull Creek Proposed WildernessCow Ridge Proposed WildernessHunter Canyon Proposed WildernessMaverick Canyon Proposed WildernessSage Brush Pillows Proposed WildernessDelores River Canyons Proposed WildernessBig Ridge Proposed WildernessDragon Canyon Proposed WildernessGrand Hogback Proposed WildernessGranite Canyon Proposed WildernessSan Miguel Proposed WildernessSouth side of Dinosaur National Monument (27 parcels)Roan Plateau

Desolation Canyon Proposed WildernessFlume Canyon Proposed WildernessFloy Canyon Proposed WildernessCoal Canyon Proposed WildernessMexico Point Wilderness Inventory AreaDirty Devil Wilderness Inventory AreaFrench Springs Wilderness Inventory AreaFlat Tops Wilderness Inventory AreaSweetwater Reef Wilderness Inventory AreaCross Canyon Proposed WildernessTin Cup Mesa Proposed WildernessMonument Canyon Proposed WildernessWest side of Dinosaur National Monument (28 parcels)

Morton, P. (2009)

Page 5: A Look Back at the Bush Drilling Boom in the Rockies

Is the “Natural Gas Bridge” Already Built?

Federal public lands under oil and gas leases, acres in production, and surplus leased acres in the Rocky Mountains, Fiscal Year 2006

State Acres Under

Lease a Acres in

Production a

% of Leased Acres not in Production

Total BLM and Forest Service

Acres b

% of Federal Lands Leased

Colorado 4,509,374 1,366,280 70% 22,868,541 20%

Montana 4,019,639 770,817 81% 24,896,115 16%

New Mexico 4,822,574 3,859,173 20% 22,792,446 21%

Utah 4,497,123 1,007,603 78% 31,052,601 14%

Wyoming 12,864,048 4,050,915 69% 27,605,756 47%

Rockies total 30,712,758 11,054,788 64% 129,215,459 24%

a Source: House Appropriations Subcommittee on Interior, Environment, and Related Agencies: Written responses from Secretary Dirk Kempthorne to questions submitted for the hearing record by Rep. Maurice Hinchey, oversight hearing on the FY 2008 Department of the Interior budget proposal, March 1, 2007. b Source: Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement, Designation of Energy Corridors on Federal Land in the

11 Western States (DOE/EIS-0386) Table 3.2-2, Page 3-4.

Page 6: A Look Back at the Bush Drilling Boom in the Rockies

New BLM Management Plans Open 43 Million Acres to Oil and Natural Gas Drilling

State Planning Area Acreage Open to Percent Open to Acreage Oil and Natural Gas Oil and Natural Gas

Colorado 4,040,289 3,707,128 92%Montana 5,194,561 5,031,023 97%New Mexico 11,114,198 9,314,310 84%Utah 10,718,957 8,820,905 82%Wyoming 17,385,368 16,416,150 94%

TOTAL 48,453,373 43,289,516 89%

Source: The Wilderness Society. Analysis of Recent BLM Resource Management Plans, August 2008

Where’s the balance? What happened to the concept of multiple use?

Morton, P. (2009)

Page 7: A Look Back at the Bush Drilling Boom in the Rockies

Negative Impacts of the Natural Gas Drilling Boom on Rural Communities

Water pollution and high ozone levels damage human health, shorten our life span, and decrease our quality of life.

Boomtown communities in the Rockies experienced an influx of non-local workers, a rise in crime and emergency service calls, increased demand for public services, more wear and tear on local infrastructure, and upward pressure on local wages and housing costs.

Contrary to conventional political wisdom, the fiscal costs to boomtown communities from the drilling boom far outweighed revenues to local taxpayers.

The road network built to service the natural gas fields have destroyed and fragmented wildlife habitat and increased access for poachers, threatening the wildlife and the region’s hunting and tourism industry.

Drilling boom can “crowd out” existing residents and businesses.

Morton, P. (2009)

Page 8: A Look Back at the Bush Drilling Boom in the Rockies

Rifle, Colorado

Source: BBC Research and Consulting 2008

Annual Fatality Rate among Oil and Gas Workers and Number of Active Oil and Gas Rigs, U.S.1993-2007 http://www.cdc.gov/niosh/programs/oilgas/risks.html

Natural gas drilling booms place significant strain on the infrastructure of a community which leads to fiscal problems for taxpayers.

Fatality rates are higher when the pace of drilling increases.

Morton, P. (2009)

Page 9: A Look Back at the Bush Drilling Boom in the Rockies

Rifle, Colorado: In the Bull’s Eye of the Natural Gas Drilling Boom

Source: City of Rifle: A case study of community renewal, growth and change in Northwest Colorado, BBC Research and Consulting 2008

“Local motels have turned into “man camps,” and it is estimated that 80 percent of local hotel room-nights are used by energy workers.”

“Tourism activity is hurt by declining esthetic values and absence of available hotel rooms; hunting and fishing is hurt by increased pressures on fisheries and wildlife as well as industry occupying lands historically used for ranching and outdoor activity.”

“Second home/retirees are less likely to find the esthetic retreat, small town atmosphere and reasonable home prices that have supported this lifestyle. Drilling in remote areas, traffic congestion, pressure on wildlife and general loss of life style quality also reduces appeal.”

“Although the natural gas industry has created a wealth of new employment opportunities, it also competes with some of the traditional businesses for labor and materials and raises the cost of doing business in Rifle. Increasingly, Rifle is reliant on a single industry and subject to any economic fluctuations that affect those businesses.”

Morton, P. (2009)

Page 10: A Look Back at the Bush Drilling Boom in the Rockies

Pinedale, Wyoming and Unintended Consequences: More Crime, Ozone Alerts and Citizen Protests.

Air pollution from drilling has caused high ozone alerts in Pinedale

As the number of drilling rigs increase so does the crime

Increased truck traffic in small towns

Workers from out of state

Morton, P. (2009)

Page 11: A Look Back at the Bush Drilling Boom in the Rockies

Regional Ozone Pollution and Human Health Problems from Natural Gas Development

In 1997, the EPA set a National Ambient Air Quality Standard with an upper limit for allowable ozone levels of 0.08 parts per million (ppm). Sublette County, WY recorded peak concentrations of ozone at 0.088, 0.081, 0.072, and 0.122 for 2005, 2006, 2007, and 2008 respectively.

Within the Pinedale Resource area of Sublette County, 99 percent of all Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) and 97 percent of nitrogen compounds (NOX) were released by oil and natural gas operations.

Especially notable is the attribution of some premature mortality to elevated ozone exposure. Improved understanding of the adverse consequences of ozone exposure, and the associated economic costs, has led the EPA to promulgate increasingly strict ozone standards.

Sources: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (2008); Nichols, J. et al. (2008); and Kerkvliet and Culver (2009) Morton, P. (2009)

Page 12: A Look Back at the Bush Drilling Boom in the Rockies

Drilling for natural gas resulted in the loss and fragmentation of wildlife habitat – and a 40% decline in deer populations

Source: SkyTruth and The Wilderness Society

All this drilling happened in less than 5 years! And now industry wants to drill 3000 more wells.

Page 13: A Look Back at the Bush Drilling Boom in the Rockies

Contact:

Pete Morton, Ph.D.Director of Economics

The Wilderness Society

[email protected]

www.wilderness.org