A multivariable study of Presidential cueing, public approval and the cross-generational trends in the media.

THE POLITICIANS

LINDSAY B. BRADFISHLAURA K. GRAVESJILL H. KLOSTERMANJEANNE M. LOUTHERTODD J. WILSON

November 3, 1969

Nixon pleads with the nation, asking the “silent majority” to support his Vietnam policy

“And so tonight,

To you, the great silent majorityof my fellow Americans—

I ask for your support.”

January 2002

In the wake of 9/11, President George W. Bush called Americans to unite against the “axis of evil” during his State of the Union address.

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“States like these and their terrorist allies constitute an axis of evil, arming to threaten the peace of the world.”

Bush, January 2002

Why Bush and Nixon?• Both elected two terms

• Both led nation during controversial foreign wars

• Both experienced turbulent trends of high and low approval

Polling Question• Do you approve or disapprove of the way [Richard Nixon, George W. Bush] is handling his job as president? —Gallup

* Poll wording did not change between the two time periods

Media effect

Cues, specifically presidential cues

PurposeDiscover the role of cues as heuristic devices that influence public expressions of presidential approval.

Why?

What the average person knows about the world comes from the deconstruction and interpretation of cues, such as those popularized by presidents.

Concept definitionsHeuristic Mental shortcuts used to hasten

the speed with which judgments are formed about complex issues; useful when looking at complex policy issues related to the government.

Source Cue

A heuristic given by an elite source* The force of this heuristic depends on the strength of the figure making the claim.

Presidential source cues, reproduced in the media, affect expressions of public opinion.

Theory

CUE

CUE

CUE

CUE

CUE

CUE

CUE

CUE

CUE

CUE

CUE

CUE

CUE

CUE CUE

C

UE

Past research: Mondak• Cues are most effective when used to express issues far removed from daily life or when individuals do not have a complete understanding of the specific issue (Mondak).

Axis of Evil (Jan. 2002) - New members (May 2002)

Past research: Edelman

• Cues work by creating images that “objectify our hopes and fears, moral stances, enthusiasms and revulsions, and in turn focus our attention and affect opinion.”

• The emotional power of these created images is crucial to understanding the willingness of the public to accept the message.

•More emotional = more likely to channel ideas into political action

We predicted:• Correlation between the use of these cues and increases in presidential approval ratings.

• Correlation between elite cue attribution and public opinion effects.

Our predictions recognize that correlation doesn’t equal causation.

We expected:• consistent use of presidential cues in the media across Nixon and Bush time periods

• Decreased presence of cues in media after about one month

But do the media and public adopt presidential cues?

Well, we started with some evidence—

MethodologyUnit of Obs. and Analysis • New York Times and Washington Post Section A omitting letters to editor/editorials• 56 A sections per newspaper, per term for a total of 448 A Sections• Lexis Nexis or Wisconsin Historical Society microfilm

Variable Coding• Each article containing at least one cue was counted for that day’s total cue presence

• Additional coding for elite cue presence

• Weekly totals for each paper were summed to reflect trends and expose patterns

Coding Scope

• Coded 4 subsequent weeks after cue presence

axis of evil

• Jan. 29, 2002 - April 23, 2002

stay the course

• April 14, 2004 - July 7, 2004

silent majority

• Nov. 3, 1969 - Jan. 25, 1970

peace with honor

• Jan. 24, 1973 - April 15, 1973

Coding Scope

• Coded 4 subsequent weeks after cue presence

• Then coded every other week to get an additional 4 weeks of data

• allowed us to see the extended potential decline in cue use, as well as the nuanced immediate changes

Reliability• Inter-rater reliability achieved when cross-coded 15 data points• Cue presence search led to nearly complete objectivity–no creation of operational definitions

Validity• Examined week prior to speech to determine presidential introduction of cue• Potential confounding variable – changes in cue presence may reflect change in presidential coverage and not change in cue presence

Nixon: Silent Majority

56

67

5961

63 64

50525456586062646668

10/17/6910/24/6910/31/6911/7/6911/14/6911/21/6911/28/6912/5/6912/12/6912/19/6912/26/691/2/701/9/701/16/701/23/701/30/70

Month

Approval (%)

Public approval pollPublic approval

Cue presence

Elite cue presence

19

13 1314

6

1

3 3

Nixon: Peace with Honor

51

67 6558 54

48

01020304050607080

1/12/731/19/731/26/732/2/732/9/732/16/732/23/733/2/733/9/733/16/733/23/733/30/734/6/734/13/734/20/734/27/73

Months

Approval (%)

Public approval poll

22

13

4

7

3

1

5

3

Public approval

Cue presence

Elite cue presence

Public approval poll

Bush: Axis of Evil

8384

828281

7779

7677

7274767880828486

1/11/021/18/021/25/022/1/022/8/022/15/022/22/023/1/023/8/023/15/023/22/023/29/024/5/024/12/024/19/02

Month

Approval(%)

Public approval

Cue presence

Elite cue presence

26

2931

25

1113

7

4

Public approval poll

Bush: Stay the Course

52 5249

46 47 4946 47

202530354045505560

4/5/044/12/044/19/044/26/045/3/045/10/045/17/045/24/045/31/046/7/046/14/046/21/046/28/047/5/04

Months

Approval (%)

12

2

5

1

3

0 0

3

Public approval

Cue presence

Elite cue presence

Discussion

• Cueing does seem to have an effect on presidential approval ratings

• However, it is not a consistent or predictable effect

• Some phrases resonate with the media and public more than others—why?

• Famous phrase—took on a life of its own and adopted by many different segments of the population, including the KKK.

Is it a good thing?

Silent Majority

Stay the course

… But why?

• Repeated over and over

Did nothing for Bush’s ratings.

Very little adoption of phrase by media.

Why do some cues get adopted and others don’t?

• Lost in the clutter

•Other news stories

•Other sources of news

•Other sources of opinion

No magic bullet• Presidents may have the “bully pulpit” but cannot force public to listen to his message.

• However, sometimes he may wish he had never said it…

Summary

In most cases the use of the cue by elites influenced the use of the cue by non-elites.

Even though public opinion levels did rise with the usage of the term by elites, the increase was not significant enough to conclude that this usage was the only relevant factor.