A National Treasure The Colorado River is a symbol of the Southwest.
Its water is not merely a commodity, but the lifeblood of economies in the seven basin states. Just as humans rely on healthy blood flow for survival, residents of the Southwest rely on water flow from this mighty river to thrive. The Basin Region Nearly 40 million Americans depend on the Colorado River for their water supply. The Colorado River Basin spans parts of the seven basin statesArizona, California, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Utah, and Wyoming. The Basin covers approximately 242,000 square miles (one-twelfth of the continental U.S.). One of the most critical sources of water in the West. Supplies water for nearly 40 million people for municipal use, irrigates 5.5 million acres of land, and provides water for 22 federally recognized tribes, 7 National Wildlife Refuges, 4 National Recreation Areas, and 11 National Parks. Hydropower facilities along the Colorado River provide more than 4,200 megawatts of electrical generating capacity. Source: U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation, Colorado River Basin Water Supply and Demand Study More Than Just a Commodity
The Colorado River supports a quarter million jobsand produces $26 billion in economic output from recreational activities alone. This economic output is drawing revenue from the 5.36 million adults who use the Colorado River for a variety of activities each year. Source: Environmental Defense Fund Uncertain Future As water demand formunicipal and agriculturalpurposes increases to servethe needs of growingpopulations, ensuring theavailability of water for non- consumptive uses such asthe environment, recreation,and hydropower becomesincreasingly challenging. Source: U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation, Colorado River Basin Water Supply and Demand Study Uncertain Future As water demand formunicipal and agriculturalpurposes increases to servethe needs of growingpopulations, ensuring theavailability of water for non- consumptive uses such asthe environment, recreation,and hydropower becomesincreasingly challenging. Source: U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation, Colorado River Basin Water Supply and Demand Study Population Colorado River Basin States | 2014
0.58M 2.84M 2.94M 5.36M 38.80M 6.73M 2.09M Colorado River Basin Population Total = 59.34M U.S. Total = M Colorado River Basin Share of U.S. Population = 18.6% Note: California makes up 65.4% of total Colorado River Basin population. Colorado River Basin Total: 59.34M United States Total: M Source: U.S. Census Bureau, population estimates as of July 1 of each year Population Growth State Comparisons | 2013-2014
United States: +0.7% Excludes District of Columbia Source: U.S. Census Bureau, population estimates as of July 1 of each year, Population Growth Colorado River Basin States | 2013-2014
+0.2% +1.7% +1.4% +1.6% +1.0% +1.5% -0.1% Colorado River Basin Population Total YoY Growth = +1.1% (59.3M in 2014 vs 58.7M in 2013) U.S. Population Growth = +0.7% Colorado River Basin Share of U.S. Population = 18.6% Colorado River Basin Total: +1.1% United States Total: +0.7% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, population estimates as of July 1 of each year, Population Growth Colorado River Basin States | 2004-2014
+14.7% +21.0% +22.5% +17.1% +9.1% +19.1% +9.6% Colorado River Basin Population Total Growth 2004 vs 2014 = +12.0% (59.3M in 2014 vs. 53.0M in 2004) U.S. Population Growth = +8.9% Colorado River Basin Share of U.S. Population = 18.6% Colorado River Basin Total: +12.0% United States Total: +8.9% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, population estimates as of July 1 of each year, Employment Colorado River Basin States | 2015
Trailing 12-Month Average; Establishment-based Employment. Colorado River Basin Employment Total = 24.91M U.S. Employment = M Colorado River Basin Share of U.S. Employment = 17.6% Note: California makes up about 64.4% of total Colorado River Basin employment. Colorado River Basin Total: 24.91M United States Total: M Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, estimates as of October 2015, Not Seasonally Adjusted Employment Growth State Comparisons | 2014-2015
United States: +1.9% Excludes District of Columbia Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Establishment-Based Employment Growth, October 2014 vs. October 2015, Not Seasonally Adjusted Employment Growth Colorado River Basin States | 2014-2015
+0.2% +3.4% +3.5% +2.1% +2.9% +2.3% +0.3% Colorado River Basin Employment Growth Average (TTM) = +2.7% U.S. Employment Growth Average (TTM) = +1.9% Colorado River Basin Share of U.S. Employment = 17.6% Colorado River Basin Average: +2.7% United States Average: +1.9% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Establishment-Based Employment Growth, October 2014 vs. October 2015, Not Seasonally Adjusted Employment Growth Colorado River Basin States | 2005-2015
+9.9% +2.0% +19.7% +13.1% +7.7% +4.1% +1.9% Colorado River Basin Employment Growth Average (TTM) = 7.9% U.S. Employment Growth Average (TTM) = 6.0% Colorado River Basin Share of U.S. Employment = 17.6% Colorado River Basin Average: +7.9% United States Average: +6.0% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Establishment-Based Employment Growth, October 2005 vs. October 2015, Not Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate State Comparisons | October 2015
United States: 5.0% Excludes District of Columbia Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate Colorado River Basin States | 2005-2015
New Mexico: 6.8% Nevada: 6.6% Arizona: 6.1% California: 5.8% Wyoming: 4.0% United States Unemployment Rate: 5.0% Average Colorado River Basin States Unemployment Rate: 5.2% Colorado: 3.8% Utah: 3.6% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Seasonally Adjusted Private Businesses Colorado River Basin States | Q1 2015
24.4K 76.5K 87.8K 180.5K 1.4M 53.0K 147.5K Latest available data. Colorado River Basin Private Businesses Total = 1.94M U.S. Total = 9.17M Upper Basin Share of U.S. Private Businesses = 21.2% Note: California makes up 70.7% of total Colorado River Basin private businesses. Colorado River Basin Total: 1.9M United States Total: 9.2M Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Gross Domestic Product Colorado River Basin States | 2014
Colorado River Basin GDP Total = $3.3 trillion U.S. Total GDP = $17.3 trillion Colorado River Basin Share of U.S. GDP = 19.1% Note: California makes up 69.8% of total Colorado River Basin GDP and 13.3% of US GDP. Colorado River Basin Total: $3.3T United States Total: $17.3T Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis Total = $1,298 billion Source: Arizona State University, The Economic Importance of the Colorado River to the Basin Region Gross Domestic Product State Comparisons | 2014
United States Average: $344.0B Excludes District of Columbia Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis Personal Income Colorado River Basin States | 2014
Colorado River Basin Personal Income Total = $2.8 trillion U.S. Personal Income = $14.7 trillion Colorado River Basin Share of U.S. Personal Income = 19.0% Note: California accounts for 69.5% of total Colorado River Basin personal income. Colorado River Basin Total: $2.8T United States Total: $14.7T Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Personal Income Per Capita State Comparisons | 2014
United States: $46,129 Excludes District of Columbia Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis The river supports a diversity of industries located in the seven Colorado River basin states, including a $26 billion recreation economy that is not fully accounted for in the ASU study. Source: Arizona State University, The Economic Importance of the Colorado River to the Basin Region The Challenge The future of the Colorado River is at risk because demand for the water is already exceeding its supply. If we do not address the problem, the Colorado River cannot continue to support the 40 million people who depend on it. Picture is of Echo Bay at Lake Mead (2015) Source: U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation The Challenge The future of the Colorado River is at risk because demand for the water is already exceeding its supply. If we do not address the problem, the Colorado River cannot continue to support the 40 million people who depend on it. Picture is of Echo Bay at Lake Mead (2015) Source: U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation For more than 14years, the basin and theWestern states havebeen plagued bydrought. Almost everyyear, all of the waterfrom the Colorado Riveris pumped out beforeemptying into the Gulf ofMexico. Source: The Washington Post, Online Edition 3/30/2015 Lake Powell at 45 Percent of Capacity
Lake Powell is at 45 percent of capacity and is at risk of its surface elevation falling to the lowest level on record. Source: The Washington Post, Online Edition 3/30/2015 Update: As of 12/13/15, Lake Powell is at 49.7% of capacity. Source: The Washington Post, Online Edition 3/30/2015 Beach That Used To Be at the Bottom
Lake Powell: A beach that used to be at the bottom of the lake. Source: The Washington Post, Online Edition 3/30/2015 Glen Canyon Dam: The divider between the Upper and Lower Colorado River Basins
Source: The Washington Post, Online Edition 3/30/2015 Lake Powell: The Bathtub Ring Water Shortage Impacts Alabama (2007): Temperatures were higher than those witnessed in more than 50 years:
1. The Tennessee Valley Authority shut down one of three reactors at Browns Ferry Nuclear Plant to avoid heating the Tennessee River to dangerous levels (first icon). 2. Power bills increased because there was not enough water to produce hydroelectric power (second icon). Nevada (2008): A report detailing the impacts of potential water shortages noted the following:
1. Population growth would be hurt. 2. Consumer spending would decline (first icon). 3. Golfing would be one of the hardest hit recreational activities (second icon). 4. The threat of forest fires would result in fewer visits to national parks (third icon). 5. Further development would be unlikely because water would be directed to existing sites. California (2009): A state of emergency was declared due to drought conditions:
1. All urban water users were asked to reduce individual water use by 20 percent (first icon). 2. Avocado farming revenues decreased by 10 percent (second icon). 3. Fishing was halted to protect salmon population, resulting in a loss of 2,690 jobs and $279 million in economic activity for the season (third icon). 4. By 2020, water shortages will cost taxpayers an estimated $1.6 billion per year (fourth icon). Arizona (2010): Drought caused low levels along the Colorado River:
1. Caused hydropower generation to drop by 20 percent. 2. By 2016, the state could face pulling out less water from the Colorado River if the Rocky Mountain snowpack does not improve. The snowpack supports 40 million users in seven western states. Colorado (2011): Drought plagued agricultural producers throughout southern Colorado:
1. Caused more than $100 million in lost economic activity throughout Rio Grande and Arkansas Basin (two watersheds in Colorado) (first icon). 2. Additional feed costs totaled $110 million (second icon). 3. Less plant life resulted in less food for wildlife, forcing more animals into human habitats (third icon). Oklahoma (2011): Low lake levels impacted recreational activities:
1. Boats continually ran aground (first icon). 2. Fish levels declined due to smaller fish having no cover to hide from predators (second icon). Kansas (2012): Crops were destroyed due to severe drought:
1. Caused corn prices to increase due to less supply (first icon). 2. With less food available to feed livestock, cattle prices dropped from $1.60 per pound to $1.20 per pound (second icon). Middle Mississippi River (stretch from St
Middle Mississippi River (stretch from St. Louis, MO to Cairo, IL) (2013): The middle Mississippi River is suffering its worst drought in 50 years: 1. The river has lost depth, causing barges to have to lighten their loads to avoid bottoming out (first icon). 2. In January, more than $7 billion worth of goods was at risk of not reaching their destination. 3. Farmers are paying more to ship crops (second and third icons). New Mexico (2013): 87 percent of the western U. S
New Mexico (2013): 87 percent of the western U.S. is in a drought, but New Mexico is facing the worst conditions. The whole state is now in a drought, with three-quarters categorized as severe or exceptional. The last three years have been the driest and warmest since record-keeping began in Deficits will require several years of normal rainfall to erase. 1. Reservoir storage statewide is 17 percent of normal, which is the lowest in the West (first icon). 2. Residents in some towns are drilling deep wells that cost $100,000 or more to sink (second icon). 3. Wildlife managers believe the unusually high number of deer and antelope killed on the states highways are a result of the animals taking greater risks to find water (third icon). 4. Thousands of trees have died, low yields and crop failures are the norm and livestock levels are one-fifth of normal (fourth icon). Western U.S. (2013): Fifty-one major uncontained wildfires are burning throughout the west; many likely due to drought conditions. States affected include California, Arizona, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, Washington and Wyoming. 1. More than 19,000 firefighters are fighting the fires (first icon). 2. The U.S. Forest Service says it is running out of money to fight wildfires and is diverting $600 million from timber, recreation and other areas to fill the gap. The agency has spent $967 million so far this year and is now down to $50 million in available funds (second icon). 3. Many homes and campsites are at risk (some have even been destroyed) and are being evacuated (third icon). 4. There have been more than 32,000 fires this year that have burned 5,300 square miles (fourth icon). Texas has been prone to cycles of drought for centuries, and its burgeoning population (1st icon) and economy are creating an increasingly unquenchable demand for water. Voters approved $2 billion in new funding for water projects (2nd icon) Irrigation water from the Rio Grande is vitally important to farmers (3rd icon) in the lower Rio Grande Valleya key agricultural region Texas Commission on Environmental Quality and the Texas Dept of Agriculture estimated the loss of Rio Grande irrigation could cost the region $394.9 million in lost economic output as well as 4,840 jobs (4th icon) linked to agricultural production and sales. Californias 4th year of severe drought is on track to cause and economic loss of roughly $3 billion in 2015up from about $2.2 billion last year. Agriculture affectedwill drive up consumer food prices 17,000 jobs lost in 2014 20,000+ expected job loss in 2015 U.S. Drought Monitor shows 93% of California remains in severe drought Sierra snowpackthe key water source for much of the stateremains at only 19% of average Https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/summary-info/national/201511 First eleven months of 2015 were the fifth warmest for the Lower 48 Autumn was record warm for the Contiguous US Contiguous U.S. average temperature from Sept-Nov was 56.8F, 3.3F above the 20thcentury average Surpassed the previous record of 56.6F set in 1963 Average temperature in November was 44.7F, 3.0F above the 20thcentury average and the 13thwarmest in the 121-year period of record Droughts Economic Consequences
The Colorado River generates $871 billion in wages and labor income in the Basin Region every year. All business sectors risk economic losses if we further deplete this resource. Source: Arizona State University, The Economic Importance of the Colorado River to the Basin Region Droughts Economic Consequences
The Colorado River generates $871 billion in wages and labor income in the Basin Region every year. All business sectors risk economic losses if we further deplete this resource. Source: Arizona State University, The Economic Importance of the Colorado River to the Basin Region The Law of the River The Colorado River is managed and operated under numerous compacts, federal laws, court decisions and decrees, contracts and regulatory guidelines. Known as the Law of the River, this collection of documents apportions the water and regulates the use and management of the Colorado River among the seven basin states and Mexico. The Colorado River Compact of 1922 is the cornerstone of the Law of the River. It was negotiated by the seven Colorado River Basin states and the federal government. However, it put the river on an unsustainable course. Based on flows from a wetter time, the 1922 Colorado River Compact divvied out one-fifth more river water than what exists today. The Colorados modern notoriety stems not from its wild rapids and plunging canyons but from the fact that it is the most legislated, most debated, and most litigated river in the entire world. It also has more people, more industry, and a more significant economy dependent on it than any comparable river in the world. Source: U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation Demand Exceeds Supply By 2060, we can expect a 3.8 million acre-foot deficit in water supply from the Colorado River. Coming up short could put 36 million peoples drinking water, agriculture, future economic growth and the $26.4 billion outdoor recreational economy and put a quarter-million jobs in jeopardy. In addition, the rivers imbalance is wreaking havoc on the Wests natural ecosystems, harming world-class fisheries and unique natural wonders. The ripple effect goes even further, and will impact everything from cost of vegetables to the eroding economic base for the hundreds of communities along the banks of the river, and the entire Western United States. Source: Common-Sense Solutions for a Reliable Water Future for the Colorado River Basin Mean Gap in Supply and Demand
This graph shows the mean water supply and water demand analyses from the Basin Study (conducted by the Bureau of Reclamation referenced earlier in this presentation). Because of rising demands in the basin states, mean water demands already exceed supply. The projected imbalance between mean supply and projected demand over the next 50 years is presented as the red wedge. The blue areasupplyalso comes from the Basin Study, which projects mean supplies declining be cause of climate change. Taken together, the gap between mean water supply and demand could grow to more than 3.8 million acre-feet by The Basin Studys authors suggested that water shortages affecting agriculture, rural areas and cities (including their economic growth potential) as well as damage to the environmental habitats and healthy rivers that support the regions recreation and tourism economy are likely to occur absent strategies that reduce this mean projected imbalance. Source: Common-Sense Solutions for a Reliable Water Future for the Colorado River Basin Cause of the Imbalance SUPPLY DEMAND
Population Growth Climate Change SUPPLY Whats driving the supply and demand imbalance? Demand is increasing because of the skyrocketing population growth in the Colorado River basins seven states Supply is dwindling because of a downward trend of less runoff from rain and snowmelt. The Colorado River is being exhausted by a 14-year drought, unprecedented in the last 1,000 years. DEMAND Source: Common-Sense Solutions for a Reliable Water Future for the Colorado River Basin Protecting More Than Just Water
$1.4 ECONOMIC ACTIVITY TRILLION $871 WAGES BILLION 16 JOBS MILLION Without the full availability of Colorado River water at current levels, the combined economy of the Basin Region is estimated to fall by over $1.4 trillion (2014$). Over $871 billion (2014 $) in labor income relies on the current availability of the Colorado River water throughout the Basin Region. In excess of 16 million jobs in the Basin Region rely of the availability of Colorado River water at current availability levels each year. Over 14 million of these jobs are estimated to be in the private sector. This means that the Colorado River is estimated to help generate almost 12.2% of national private employment in the Basin Region. Source: Arizona State University, The Economic Importance of the Colorado River to the Basin Region Top 5 Private Sectors Affected By Water Shortfall For One Year
$174.3 Billion Real Estate and Rental $148.6 Billion Healthcare and Social Services $137.1 Billion Finance and Insurance $130.6 Billion Professional, Scientific and Technical Services $96.2 Billion Retail Trade Source: Arizona State University, The Economic Importance of the Colorado River to the Basin Region Estimates of Total Economic Impacts Based on Future Water Loss
Percent Decline in Availability of Colorado River Water Gross State Product Employment Labor Income 10% $143.4 Billion 1.6 Million $87.1 Billion 15% $215.1 Billion 2.4 Million $130.7 Billion 25% $358.5 Billion 4.0 Million $217.9 Billion 50% $717.1 Billion 8.0 Million $435.7 Billion 75% $1,075.6 Billion 12.0 Million $653.6 Billion Extrapolated estimates of total economic impacts of different amounts of Colorado River water loss for the entire Basin Region. Source: Arizona State University, The Economic Importance of the Colorado River to the Basin Region Water resources are an essential element of economic development and diversification.
Preserving water resources is critical to protecting the Basin Regions economies. A comprehensive, master-planned approach is necessary and appropriate.