A Personal View of the A Personal View of the Future of Space WeatherFuture of Space Weather

Dr. Keith T. StrongDr. Keith T. StrongSP Systems at NASA GSFCSP Systems at NASA GSFC

AssessmentAssessmentExample: Long-term ForecastingExample: Long-term ForecastingCost Effective & Innovative ApproachesCost Effective & Innovative ApproachesExample: MagConExample: MagConWhat Must be Done What Must be Done

Forecast Assessment: Adequate (-)Forecast Assessment: Adequate (-)Space Weather Space Weather Type of WarningType of Warning Example MethodologyExample Methodology Reliability Reliability

Solar CycleSolar Cycle Next cycleNext cycle Empirical or numerical modelsEmpirical or numerical models Very PoorVery Poor

Current CycleCurrent Cycle Trend analysis against averageTrend analysis against average PoorPoor

<1 year<1 year Trend analysis on activityTrend analysis on activity AdequateAdequate

Solar FlaresSolar Flares >1 day before event>1 day before event Statistical probabilityStatistical probability Very PoorVery Poor

<1 day before event<1 day before event Magnetic complexityMagnetic complexity PoorPoor

All clear for up to 24hAll clear for up to 24h Solar activity levelsSolar activity levels Very GoodVery Good

CMEsCMEs >1 day before event >1 day before event Statistical probabilityStatistical probability Very PoorVery Poor

<1 day before event<1 day before event Filament / AR dynamicsFilament / AR dynamics Very PoorVery Poor

Arrival time at EarthArrival time at Earth Dynamics after launchDynamics after launch GoodGood

All clear for up to 24hAll clear for up to 24h Solar Activity levelsSolar Activity levels GoodGood

Solar WindSolar Wind High or low speedHigh or low speed Models based on magnetic and coronal dataModels based on magnetic and coronal data GoodGood

Geomagnetic StormsGeomagnetic Storms >3 days before event>3 days before event Relies on flare, CME and solar wind dataRelies on flare, CME and solar wind data Very PoorVery Poor

<3 days before event<3 days before event Observed CME launchObserved CME launch AdequateAdequate

<1 hour<1 hour Upstream monitorsUpstream monitors GoodGood

Now cast: effectsNow cast: effects Magnetospheric modelsMagnetospheric models Very GoodVery Good

All clear for up to 3 dAll clear for up to 3 d Solar Activity levels Solar Activity levels Very GoodVery Good

Atmospheric HeatingAtmospheric Heating Advanced warningAdvanced warning Flare intensity and likelihoodFlare intensity and likelihood Very PoorVery Poor

Now castNow cast Atmospheric models and drag dataAtmospheric models and drag data AdequateAdequate

Ionospheric DisturbancesIonospheric Disturbances Advanced WarningAdvanced Warning Flare intensity and likelihoodFlare intensity and likelihood PoorPoor

Nowcast Nowcast Solar activity levelsSolar activity levels GoodGood

All clear for up to 24hAll clear for up to 24h Solar activity levelsSolar activity levels GoodGood

Cycle 23 is the Best Observed in History…….Cycle 23 is the Best Observed in History…….

SolarSolar HeliosphereHeliosphere GeospaceGeospaceYohkohYohkoh Voyager 1 & 2Voyager 1 & 2 POES/DMSPPOES/DMSP

GOESGOES Ulysses Ulysses GOESGOES

SOHOSOHO WindWind UARSUARS

TRACETRACE SOHO SOHO GEOTAILGEOTAIL

SORCESORCE ACEACE POLAR POLAR

RHESSIRHESSI FASTFAST

STEREOSTEREO ClusterCluster

HINODEHINODE IMAGEIMAGE

TIMEDTIMED

STS-5STS-5

AIMAIM

+ ground-based assets+ ground-based assets THEMISTHEMIS

But Have We Been Observing the Right Things in the Right Way?

…… …… But For How Much of the Cycle?But For How Much of the Cycle?

SolarSolar HeliosphereHeliosphere GeospaceGeospaceYohkoh Yohkoh Voyager 1 & 2Voyager 1 & 2 POES/DMSPPOES/DMSP

GOESGOES Ulysses Ulysses GOESGOES

SOHOSOHO WindWind UARSUARS

TRACETRACE SOHO SOHO GEOTAILGEOTAIL

SORCESORCE ACEACE POLAR POLAR

RHESSIRHESSI FASTFAST

STEREOSTEREO ClusterCluster

HINODEHINODE IMAGEIMAGE

TIMEDTIMED

STS-5STS-5

AIMAIM

THEMISTHEMIS

Must Resort to Statistical Studies

……. But Cycle 24 May Be More Sparsely Observed . But Cycle 24 May Be More Sparsely Observed

SolarSolar HeliosphereHeliosphere GeospaceGeospaceYohkohYohkoh Voyager 1 & 2Voyager 1 & 2 POES/DMSPPOES/DMSP

GOESGOES UlyssesUlysses GOESGOES

SOHOSOHO WindWind UARSUARS

TRACETRACE SOHO SOHO GEOTAIL GEOTAIL

SORCESORCE ACEACE POLARPOLAR

RHESSIRHESSI IBEXIBEX FAST FAST

STEREOSTEREO Solar ProbeSolar Probe Cluster Cluster

HINODEHINODE Solar OrbiterSolar Orbiter IMAGEIMAGE

SDOSDO SentinelsSentinels TIMEDTIMED

Solar OrbiterSolar Orbiter TRIANA????TRIANA???? STS-5STS-5

AIMAIM

THEMISTHEMIS

CINDICINDI

MMSMMS

NPOESSNPOESS

RBSPRBSP

Mag ConMag Con

KEY:KEY:No Longer FunctionalNo Longer FunctionalWorking but Past Sell-by DateWorking but Past Sell-by DateFully OperationalFully OperationalTo be Launched SoonTo be Launched SoonPlannedPlanned

Long-Term Forecasting Seems to be our Long-Term Forecasting Seems to be our Biggest Problem AreaBiggest Problem Area

• To address any forecast requirements longer than 3 days, we must go To address any forecast requirements longer than 3 days, we must go back to the Sun:back to the Sun: – Solar Cycle PredictionSolar Cycle Prediction

• Impacts mission planning (e.g., S/C design, replacement rates, refurbishment timing, fuel allocation, parts selection)

• Exploration of the Moon/Mars or any human deep space mission

– Advanced Warning of Energetic Flares and CMEsAdvanced Warning of Energetic Flares and CMEs

• Impacts early warning of geomagnetic storms

• EVA planning

– Predicting the Characteristics of Filaments and Coronal HolesPredicting the Characteristics of Filaments and Coronal Holes

• Spacecraft charging• CME s

Long-term Forecast RequirementsLong-term Forecast Requirements

Solar Cycle Solar Cycle

(Large-scale B)(Large-scale B)

Flares & CMEsFlares & CMEs

(Strong B)(Strong B)

Coronal Holes & Coronal Holes & FilamentsFilaments

(Weak B)(Weak B)

HelioseismologyHelioseismology √√ ?? ??Magnetic Field (LOS)Magnetic Field (LOS) √√ √√ √ √ Magnetic Field Magnetic Field (Vector)(Vector) ХХ √√ ?? Coronal Imaging (X-Coronal Imaging (X-ray/EUV)ray/EUV) √√ √√ √√CoronagraphCoronagraph XX √√ ХХModelingModeling √√ √√ √√

√ √ - Needed- Needed? – TBD? – TBDX – Not NeededX – Not Needed

Cost Benefit Analysis Needed?

Which is the Most Cost Effective Problem to Tackle? Which is the Most Cost Effective Problem to Tackle?

Solar Cycle Solar Cycle

(Large-scale B)(Large-scale B)

Flares & CMEsFlares & CMEs

(Strong B)(Strong B)

Coronal Holes & Coronal Holes & FilamentsFilaments

(Weak B)(Weak B)

HelioseismologyHelioseismology √√ ?? ??Magnetic Field (LOS)Magnetic Field (LOS) √√ √√ √ √ (I.R.)(I.R.)

Magnetic Field Magnetic Field (Vector)(Vector) ХХ √√ ? ? (I.R.)(I.R.)

Coronal Imaging (X-Coronal Imaging (X-ray/EUV)ray/EUV) √√ √√ √√CoronagraphCoronagraph ХХ √√ ХХModelingModeling √√ √√ √√

Mature TechnologyMature Technology/ Understanding/ Understanding

Technology Technology Development / Development /

Understanding NeededUnderstanding Needed

√ √ - Needed- Needed? – TBD? – TBDX – Not NeededX – Not Needed

So It Comes Down to Minimizing CostsSo It Comes Down to Minimizing Costs

• Space Science is no longer cheapSpace Science is no longer cheap

– Science is more complex and involved …..Science is more complex and involved …..

– Technology and engineering requires specialist teams ……..Technology and engineering requires specialist teams ……..

– But We have put in place huge barriers to doing things cost But We have put in place huge barriers to doing things cost effectivelyeffectively

• Unnecessary Reviews• Intrusive oversight• Financial hurdles (reserves management)• Additional layers of management

– E.g., TRACE would be impossible to do todayE.g., TRACE would be impossible to do today

– PI rules would mean that many of today’s PIs would not have PI rules would mean that many of today’s PIs would not have become PIs!become PIs!

Have We Become Too Afraid of Have We Become Too Afraid of Innovation?Innovation?

• Prevailing View: Innovation = RISKPrevailing View: Innovation = RISK

• Here is where commercial businesses can make a Here is where commercial businesses can make a contributioncontribution

– Particularly the small ones (once the basic technology is Particularly the small ones (once the basic technology is developed)developed)

– They are not afraid to look at completely different conceptsThey are not afraid to look at completely different concepts

• Space tourism

• Low-cost Commercial launches

An Example: Two Ways of Looking At MagConAn Example: Two Ways of Looking At MagCon

• Current ConceptCurrent Concept

– Huge, expensive launcherHuge, expensive launcher

– Multiple S/C and instrument Multiple S/C and instrument buildsbuilds

• Set up and then decommission a costly production line

– Your Program schedule will be Your Program schedule will be slave to the slowest, most slave to the slowest, most troublesome one.troublesome one.

– Constellation degrades or Constellation degrades or eventually becomes obsoleteeventually becomes obsolete

– Managing and safely operating Managing and safely operating an “instant” constellationan “instant” constellation

• What if you got the science What if you got the science requirements wrong?requirements wrong?

– No recoveryNo recovery

Who Said There was no Such Thing as a Free Who Said There was no Such Thing as a Free Launch?Launch?

• Use the spare launch capacity Use the spare launch capacity (ballast) on current launches - (ballast) on current launches - Saves >$100MSaves >$100M

• Spreads out production costs, Spreads out production costs, eliminating the need for mass eliminating the need for mass production, calibration, etcproduction, calibration, etc

• Populates a larger volume of spacePopulates a larger volume of space

• Allows for ongoing innovation, new Allows for ongoing innovation, new instrumentation instrumentation

• Constellation continuously Constellation continuously enhanced and can be perpetuatedenhanced and can be perpetuated

• Constellation size can be scaled on Constellation size can be scaled on a cost effective basisa cost effective basis

• Operations grow more complex Operations grow more complex slowlyslowly

• What if you got the science What if you got the science requirements wrong?requirements wrong?

– Adjust as you build the Adjust as you build the constellationconstellation

Secondary Payload Ring Populated by 6 microsats replaces some of the ballast

What We Should DoWhat We Should Do• A rigorous and on-going assessment of:A rigorous and on-going assessment of:

– Our ability to predict SWx phenomenaOur ability to predict SWx phenomena• A forecasting challenge?

– The current and future user needs (value)The current and future user needs (value)

– Technology readiness to meet those requirementsTechnology readiness to meet those requirements• SWx Instrument incubator program

• Missions funding should be based on utility not on some arbitrary Missions funding should be based on utility not on some arbitrary clockclock

• Look at innovative (cost effective) solutionsLook at innovative (cost effective) solutions– Small businesses can be more agileSmall businesses can be more agile

• More flexible designs such that we can improve data as the new More flexible designs such that we can improve data as the new technologies emergetechnologies emerge

THANKS!THANKS!