George BarnaAmerican Culture & Faith InstituteNovember 7, 2013

A Perspective on the State of the Tea Party

2

1. Current Standing of the Tea Party2. Hopeful Signs and Opportunities3. Challenges Going Forward

Three Perspectives…

3

1. Current Standing of the Tea Party2. Hopeful Signs and Opportunities3. Challenges Going Forward

Three Perspectives…

4Data from October 2013

17%

83%

Not AwareAware

National Awareness of Tea Party

5Data from October 2013

Adults

Republicans

Conservatives

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

28%

46%

45%

Tea Party Favorability Rating

6

Hillary ClintonBarack Obama

Democratic PartyRepublican Party

Harry ReidTea Party

John BoehnerTed CruzCongress

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 10057

4845

31282827

2423

Percent Favorable

Where the Tea Party Lines Up: National Favorability Ratings (Oct. 2013)

7Data from October 2013

21% are supporters

Size of the Movement

8Data from October 2013

28% say the TP reflects the views of most Americans60% say it does not

19% say they agree with the TP movement48% have no opinion

37% say the TP Movement is good for the country52% of conservatives66% of Republicans87% of TP supporters44% of adults say it is bad for the country…

Tea Party as a Reflection of America

9Data from September 2013

Support Oppose No Opinion0

102030405060708090

100

38%

7%

55%

Republican Support for the TP

10Data from Sept. - Oct. 2013

55% are favorable toward the Republican Party43% are unfavorable

52% say Tea Party is a separate, independent movement from the Republican Party51% of Republicans and 47% of all adults agree

Tea Party “Member”Support for Republican Party

11Data from July 2013

Favorable Unfavorable No Opinion0

10

20

30

40

50

6050%

8%

42%

Perceptions AmongConservative Protestant Pastors

12

High name recognitionBelow average substantive awarenessLimited voter empathyLimited support among registered

RepublicansLukewarm TP support for Republican

PartyAbove average favor with conservative

pastors

Summary of the Tea Party’s Current Standing

13

1. Current Standing of the Tea Party2. Hopeful Signs and Opportunities3. Challenges Going Forward

Three Perspectives…

14Data from October 2013

With government performance:16% are satisfied with the way we are being

governed11% approve of the job Congress is doing17% have a great deal of confidence in our

system of government19% say they can trust the government to do

what is right always or most of the time12% feel content with our government30% are angry with our government55% are frustrated with our government

Americans are fed up with their government

15Data from May - June 2013

With government power:54% say the federal government has too much

power

62% believe the federal government has become so large and powerful that it poses an immediate threat to the rights and freedoms of ordinary citizens

Americans are fed up with their government

16Data from Sept. - Oct. 2013

Majority has different governance preferences:60% say the government is trying to do too

many things that should be left up to individuals and businesses

51% would prefer a smaller government that provides fewer services … 40% prefer a bigger government providing more services

Americans are fed up with their government

17Data from October 2013

14% are satisfied with the way things are going in our country today

14% believe things are generally headed in the right direction

64% feel that the biggest threat to the country in the future is big government

Americans are worried about the direction of the country

18

2009 2010 2011 2012 20130

102030405060708090

100

0

58

80 82 83

% AWARE

Rapid Rise of Tea Party Awareness

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IRS targeting conservative non-profitsNSA database developmentDOJ seizing reports’ phone recordsBenghazi cover upGSA money spent on gamblingAffordable Care Act NSA spying on foreign leadersAttorney General cover up on Fast &

Furious

Government Scandals and IntrusionArgue for Reduced Government

20Data from June - July 2013

56% are worried that government surveillance efforts go too far in invading personal privacy

70% believe that government data collection goes beyond anti-terrorism efforts

63% believe the government is collecting the content of phone calls and e-mails

56% say the federal courts do not provide adequate limitations on what data the government can collect

51% feel the IRS targeting conservative groups is a very important issue

Serial revelations aboutgovernment intrusion into our lives will further

erode public goodwill

21Data from October 2013

The top-rated national issues are the economy (1st) and dysfunctional government (2nd)

Household debt has dropped from $12.88 trillion in Q3 2008 to $11.15 trillion in Q2 2013

Only 11% believe the federal government has reduced spending as much as it can

Just 23% say they have seen any impact from across-the-board federal spending cuts (i.e. the sequester)

55% favored raising the debt ceiling only if the government agreed to cut spending to offset the raise

Increased fiscal conservatismamong Americans is encouraging

22Data for October of years shown; Bloomberg

1985

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

-60-40-20

020406080

100120

From +100 to -100

Consumer Comfort Index displays our unease with where things stand

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If 21% of adults are Tea Party supporters, that’s 50-55 million voting age peopleObama won in 2012 with 66 million votes

40% of adults claim to be conservative71% of Republicans claim to be conservative

46% of adults say they are economically conservative

Marketers and social scientists concur that a movement can have substantial impact once it reaches 12% to 15% of the population in questionTea Party is well beyond the threshold

Tea Party Constituency is Sizeable

24Data from October 2013

020406080

100

73 73 7992

38 44 5367

Tea PartyNon-TP

Tea Party Supporters Have a Distinctive Point of View

25Data from October 2013

0306090 92

44 5567 6942

Tea Party Non-Tea Party

% agree

Tea Party Supporters Have a Distinctive Point of View

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Government is unpopularPeople know things are moving in the wrong

directionWe are increasingly worried about Big

BrotherTaxpayers are trying to reign in their

spendingTaxpayers are not convinced the government

is trying to curtail its spendingTea Party has enough distinctives to stand outTea Party is large enough to change the game

Summary ofHopeful Signs and Opportunities

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1. Current Standing of the Tea Party

2. Hopeful Signs and Opportunities

3. Challenges Going Forward

Three Perspectives…

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The absence of consistent national leadership – a singular voice, a trusted face, a laser focus

Challenges:

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Motivate, mobilize, resource, and direct people toward a shared vision of a preferred future

Leaders…

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StrategyResourcesPeople

Grassroots Movements Live or Die According to How They Handle:

31

Absence of consistent national leadership – a singular voice, a trusted face, a laser focus

Loss of momentum

Challenges:

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Three-year decline in favorability38% in 2010 … 28% in 2013

Three-year decline in self-identified supporters31% in 2010 … 21% in 2013

Plateaued national awareness81% in 2010 … 83% in 2013

Decline in support among Republicans65% in 2010 … 38% in 2013

Low proportion who say TP speaks for most AmericansJust 24%

Low proportion who say TP is improving the process37%

Bad trend lines…

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Absence of consistent national leadership – a singular voice, a trusted face, a laser focus

Loss of momentumInfluence of the mass media

Challenges:

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Absence of consistent national leadership – a singular voice, a trusted face, a laser focus

Loss of momentumInfluence of the mass mediaDisunity among conservatives

Challenges:

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Absence of consistent national leadership – a singular voice, a trusted face, a laser focus

Loss of momentumInfluence of the mass mediaDisunity among conservativesAlleged absence of “intellectual rigor”

Challenges:

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Absence of consistent national leadership – a singular voice, a trusted face, a laser focus

Loss of momentumInfluence of the mass mediaDisunity among conservativesAlleged absence of “intellectual rigor”Well-defined “what”, ill-defined “how”

Challenges:

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Absence of consistent national leadership – a singular voice, a trusted face, a laser focus

Loss of momentumInfluence of the mass mediaDisunity among conservativesAlleged absence of “intellectual rigor”Well-defined “what”, ill-defined “how”Limitations in the Tea Party demographic

profile

Challenges:

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Absence of consistent national leadership – a singular voice, a trusted face, a laser focus

Loss of momentumInfluence of the mass mediaDisunity among conservativesAlleged absence of “intellectual rigor”Well-defined “what”, ill-defined “how”Limitations in the Tea Party demographic profileDeath of the American Dream – lowering the bar

Challenges:

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Prove your viability in 2014Same vision, new strategies and tacticsMeasure what matters and respond

accordinglyIf led properly, the Tea Party could move

beyond hit-or-miss impact to substantially altering the national political landscape

Concluding thoughts…

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