a practical guide to foresight

A Practical Guide to ForesightJTL SOLGM Risk Management Forum 2019

Wellington, 19 February

Dr Stephanie PrideStratEDGY Strategic Foresight

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You are the future here today BINGO

“The future is

already here, it’s

just not equally

distributed yet”

William Gibson

A (Very) Practical Guide to ForesightSession Outline

Why use futures tools and techniques?

Principles and terminology

Having a go:Look back to look forward

Futures Wheel/Consequence circles

Rapid Scenario Sketching

3 Horizons Thinking

Meet your cousin!

What you see isn’t necessarily what is there!

7 Questions Anomaly probing Backcasting Bellwether monitoring

Brainstorming Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) Concept Fan Delphi

Methods Driver Analysis Environmental Scanning PESTLE/STEEPLED Expert Conversations Gaming Horizon Scanning

Integral approaches Integrated 'lite' scanning Issues trees Mind

mappingMorphological Analysis Multi-Criterion Analysis NarrativisationPreferred scenario backcasting Preferred scenario matrix QUEST

Rapid Scenario Sketching Relevance Trees Resourced Conversations Rich Stakeholder analysis - using CLA

Roadmaps Scenarios Structural Analysis Systems maps

Three Horizons approach Trend Analysis Trend Extrapolation

Visioning (preferred future) Windtunnelling

That’s why futurists use tools!

“Rigorous Imagining”

Riel Miller, Head of Foresight, UNESCO


Why use futures tools and techniques





3 Horizons Thinking

What has happened in the past?

What appears to be happening now?

What could happen next?

What shouldwe do about it?

What could we do about it?

Seeing the future here today

Understanding ourselves and

what’s framing our views

Increasing our ‘change

awareness’

Thinking about more than one possible future

Looking back to look forward – seeing bigger patterns of change

Testing our assumptions

Clarifying our values and preferences

Futures practices for building futures literacy

Go beyond the probable or assumed future

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Rigorous Futures Thinking BasicsUnderstand yourself Understand your context

Pay attention to change

Broaden the canvas on which you are looking for change: Look to the margins as well as the centre

Beyond your sector, beyond your expertise, beyond your comfort zone

Broaden the canvas on which you are looking for change:look back x2 to look forwardlook over longer time horizons

Looking forward 10yrs = insights for 5 yrs

Looking forward 20 yrs = insights for 13.5yrs

Looking forward 40 yrs = insights for 24yrs

Our Social Operating System is in transitionfrom Life 2.0 to Life 3.0







3 Horizons Thinking

When people describe using future tools, they seem like this

When you are using them, it feels like this

You can read up as

much as you like,

but you don’t really

get it until you do it

in practice

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3 Horizons Thinking

Work in pairs. Choose one card from the set.Discuss what might go in the empty box, and why.If there’s time share your thinking with the table group.

Looking back to look forward







3 Horizons Thinking

Futures Wheel/Consequence Circles

Devised by Jerome C. Glenn.

Drawing with Inkscape by Andreas Neudecker - Creative Commons Attribution 2.5 License(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Futures_wheel_01.svg).

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/5/58/Futures_wheel_01.svg

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Futures_wheel_01.svg

Work in table groups. Read the starting situation.Work out as many immediate impacts as you can. (‘What could happen next?’)Take each of these impacts in turn and work out what could happen next from each one. Work round each layer of the circle, not out in spokes across the layers.

Futures Wheel







3 Horizons Thinking


What is a scenario?

Scenarios are rigorously imagined stories about the

future

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3. Where did scenarios come from?

4. Range of Scenario Tools

Drawn from ‘The current state of scenario development: an overview of techniques’ Bishop,P. Hines, A. & Collins, T. Foresight, Vol 9, No1, 2007 pp5-25

Judgment Baseline Fixed Scenarios Event

Sequences

Backcasting Dimensions of

uncertainty

Cross-impact

analysis

Modelling

Genius Manoa Incasting Probability Trees Horizon Mission

Methodology

Morphological

Analysis

SMIC-PROB-

EXPERT

Trend Impact

Analysis

Visualisation Systemic SRI Sociovision Impact of Future

Technologies

Field Anomaly

Relaxation

Interactive

Future

Simulation

Sensitivity

Analysis

Role playing Divergence

mapping

Future Mapping GBN Dynamic

Scenarios

Coates & Jarrett Option

Development/Optio

n Evaluation

MORPHOL

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The Global Business Network Approach

1. Select 2 highly critical, highly uncertain drivers

2. Check selected drivers do not directly influence each other

3. Arrange the two drivers as axes in a 2 x 2 matrix

Define and describe them.

4. Each quadrant creates a different scenario – populate and

explore each scenario in relation to your focal question

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Prerequisites for GBN approachAssess drivers in relation to uncertainty and

impact

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High impactLow certaintyFUTURES EXPLORATION: CRITICAL UNCERTAINTIES

High impactHigh certaintyGIVEN OPERATING ENVIRONMENT

Low impactLow certaintyRATS AND MICE

Low impactHigh certaintyBUSINESS AS USUAL

Increasing certainty

low high

low

high

Increasing impact

Example Scenarios: state of technology/state of governance

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Pervasive, sophisticated technology

“lumpy”, low-grade technology

Governance

vacuum,no rule of

law

Stable governance with effective rule of law

Ghost in the Shell

Hobbiton

Populate and explore each scenario

Each quadrant creates a different scenario. • Stand in each world - one at a time • Describe what each world is like• Create back story - how did we get here• Give each world a name• Bring in knowns/givens• ‘This affects that’ – when do givens start to give way?• Do non-wild card thinking first.

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Consider any of these questions to get you started

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Where do people work? Can the country afford to provide the basics for those in need?

How do people travel? How much crime is there? what sort?

What type of housing is most desired Where do people play?

What type of housing is most common?

What do people eat?

What sorts of jobs have appeared? What sort of jobs have disappeared?







3 Horizons Thinking

H1 Thinking aboutnow / near future

means we can act to maximise impact in current condtiions

H2 Thinking about themedium term future

means we can act today to position well for what’s coming

H3 Thinking about the distant future

means we can act today to shape the environment as it evolves

Working in table groups, choose one possible future from your scenario sketching. Focus on one element of that scenario that you view as a risk. Identify at least two actions you can take today to treat this risk for Horizon 1Identify at least two actions you can take today to treat this risk for Horizon 2Identify at least two actions you can take today to treat this risk for Horizon 3

Three Horizons Thinking

3 Horizons STEM example Policy objective: NZ has a high value, STEM-based

economy by 2036• Horizon 1: Higher tax breaks for private sector

investment in STEM-related R&D• Horizon 2: Invest in ‘state of the art’ infrastructure for

STEM-related research• Horizon 3: Develop & implement accelerated

curriculum for STEM in compulsory education from pre-school onwards

www.stratedgy.co.nzSTEM = Science, Technology, Engineering, Mathematics

Questions? Comments? Discussion?

Back pocket content

Communication Design

41 MEGACITIES OFOVER 10 MILLION

BY 2030

CLIMATE CHANGE

Infrastructure pressure, population displacementsocial economic and political volatility

TRANSITION TO A LOW CARBON ECONOMY

The balance of powerbetweeninstitutions and

individualsis changing

UNPRECEDENTED CONNECTIVITY

AND DATA RICHNESS

SMACSCONVERGENCE

MACHINE LEARNING

COGNITIVE COMPUTING

Rich Digital Ecosystem

Identifying Drivers

It’s all about granularity

www.stratedgy.co.nz

a practical guide to foresight

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