a preliminary assessment of potential doses to man from radioactive waste dumped in the arctic sea -...

8/3/2019 A Preliminary Assessment of Potential Doses to Man From Radioactive Waste Dumped in the Arctic Sea - Nielsen Et Al. - 1995

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&H ISOO**7 4 Ris-R-841(EN)

A Preliminary Assessmentof Potential Doses toManfromRadioactive WasteDumped in the Arctic SeaSven E Nielsen, Mikhail Iosjpe * and Per Strand ** Norwegian Radiation Protection Authority, sters, Norway

Ris National Laboratory, Roskilde, DenmarkSeptember 1995


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Ris-R-841(EN)

A Preliminary Assessment of Potential Doses toMan from Radioactive Waste Dumped in theArctic SeaSven P . N ielsen, Mikhail Iosjpe" and Pe r Strand*"Norwegian Radiation Protection Authority, sters, Norway

Ris National LaboratorySeptember 1995


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Abstract This report describes a preliminary radiological assessment of collectivedoses to the w orld population from radioactive material dumped in the Barents andKara Seas in the period 1961-1991 Information on the dumped waste and theratesofrelease of radionuclides have been available from Russian sources and from theInternational Atomic Energy Agency A box model has been used to simulate thedispersion of radionuclides in the marine environment and to calculate thecontamination of seafood and the subsequent radiation doses to man Tw o releasescenarios have been adopted The worst-case release scenario which ignores thepresence o f barriers between spent nuclear fo d and seaw ater is estimated to give rise toabou t 10 mansieverts calculated to 1000 years from the time of release. A morerealistic release scenario is estimated to cause about 3 mansieverts In both casesexposurefrom he radionuclide 137Cs is found to dominate the doses.

This report is also published by the Norwegian Radiation Protection Authority with thereport number 1995:8ISBN 87-550-2109-3ISSN 0106-2840Grafisk Service, Ris, 1995


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CONTENTS

1. INTRODUCTION 5

2.1. MO DE L DESCRIPTION 52J . M OD EL RELIABILITY 103 . SOURCE TERMS II3 .1. UN IT RELEASES 123X TW O RELEASE SCENARIOS 12

4.1. DO SES FROM DISCHARGES OF UNIT ACTIVITY 154 2 . DO SES FROM TWO RELEASE SCENARIOS 16S. CONCLUSIONS IS6 AC KN OW LE DGE M EN T ...***.^....,...........*...........***.^**.....,.............# 19

8. APPENDIX A, BASIC MOD EL INPUT DATA 229. APPENDIX B, RESULTS OF UNIT RELEASES 2*10. APPENDIX C, RESULTS OF SCENARIO RELEASES. 41

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1 . INTRODUCTIONInformation o n disposal o f radioactive waste in the shallow w aters o f the Arctic Seasby the former Soviet Union becamefirstavailable to the international community tromunofficial sources in 1990 and later from official Russian sources in 1993 (White BookN o. 3 , 199 3). Sinc e then several initiatives have been taken to a ssess the potentialimpact to man and the environment from th e waste. The dumpings have taken place inthe Barents Sea west o fN ov ay a Zemrya and in the Kara Sea east of NovayaZemryaand have covered the period 1960 -1991 .The countries bordering the Arctic Seas are partkularly concerned m connection withthe possible contamination of their harvest of marine produce from these waters.Norw ay and the Russian Federation have entered into d os e co-operation to investigatei hepreser tkvdsofar ti fk^rad^orai dkteMtl t treactor wa ste and spent nuclear fuel have been dumped in the Kara Sea. Th eInternational Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) launched in 1993 a programme"International Arctic Seas Assessment Project (IASAP)" which is planned to last forfour years. The programme is organised by IAEA in co-operation with Norway andRussia.Ris N ational Laboratory is working together with IAEA and the Norw egian R adiationProtection Authority in the investigations by carrying out radioanatytical work onenvironmental samples collected from the joint Norwegian-Russian expeditions (1 99 2,1993 and 1994) to the Kara Sea and by making a preliminary assessment of thepotential collective doses to man from ingestion of seafood contaminated from thewa ste. The present work has been done in association with the Joint Russian-Norwegian Expert Group for Investigation of Radioactive contamination in theNorthern Areas.

2. MODEL2 .1 M O D E L D E S C R I P T I O N

The present work is based on box-model analysis used to simulate the movement ofradioactive material between the different boxes into which the relevant parts of theenvironment is subdivided.

Box-model analysis assumes instantaneous uniform mixing within each box with rateso f transfer being p roportional t o the inventories of material in the source box es M oredetailed modelling of water transport is possible with complex (e.g. 3 dimensional)models w hich m ay giv e excellent results at short distances and time scales (Breton andSalomon 1995; Schonfeld 1995). But in connection with radiological assessments o fdischarges to the marine environment it is often necessary to cover large distances(>1 00 0 km ) and long time scales (centuries or millenniums) which may not justify theuse o f the more com plex mo dels neither in terms of cost nor accuracy of the results

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Figure 1. Reg ions in the Arctic Ocean covered by the box model. The numbersrefer to surface w ater boxes.

Box models have been used previously in connection with studies of the dispersion ofdischarges of radioactivity from European civil nuclear installations (NRPB and CEA1979; Camplin et a! 1982; Hallstadius et al. 1987; Nielsen and Aarkrog 1988; CEC1990). The p resent model is a combination of two models: 1) the one is an adjustedversion (Nielsen 1995) of a regional box model used for radiological assessments innorth-west European coastal areas (EC 1995), and 2) the other is a larger box modelcovering the Arctic Ocean and the North Atlantic (Chartier 1993). The larger boxmodel is derived from a 3D World Ocean general circulation model from which the6 Ris-R-841(EN)


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results have been used for the design of a box structure in the Arctic Ocean andsurrounding waters. Th e resulting structure and water fluxes were selected taking intoaccount expert information based on experimental data from the Barents Sea(Adbndsvik 1993).

Fig ure 2 . Reg ions in the North Atlantic covered by the box model. The numbersrefer to surface water boxes.

The box-model analysis uses first order differential equations to describe the transfer ofpollutants betw een the boxes. The equations are o f the form:

wh ere k#=0 for all i, A, and A, are activities (B q) at time t in box es i and j , kg and kj, arerates o f transfer (y'1) between boxes i and j , kj is an effective rate of transfer of activity(y 1 ) from box i taking into account loss of material from the compartment withouttransfer to another, for example radioactive decay, Qj is a continuous source of inputinto box i (Bq y'1) and n is the number of boxes in the system.

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The rates of transfer between the aquatic boxes, k* (y') are related to the volumeexchanges, R$ (k m 3 y ') according to:

whe re V, is the volume o f water represented by box iFigures 1 arid 2 show the regioris used m the marine box mo dd ar tstructure o f the water box es and their mterconnections Each of the watercompartments has associated suspended sediment and the water compartments incon tact with the seabed have underlying seabed sediment compartments. Th e Utter arenot show n in Figure 3.

Fig ur e 3 . Schematic box structure of the model showing the water bo xes onlyThe lines connecting the bo xes indicate the water fluxes between adjacent b oxes.The compartment names, volumes, mean depths, suspended sediment loads andsedimentation rates are given in the Appendix A in Table Al . Th e volume exchangerates used in the model are given in Table A2 The suspended sediment loads andsedimentation rates are default values based on values from the regional modelmentioned above (EC 1995).

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A t any given time die activity in the water column g partitioned between the waterphase and the suspended sediment material. Th e fraction o f the activity (Fw) in thewater column which is in solution b given by:

* \ + K SSLwhere K* b the sediment distribution coefficient (or concentration factor) (m 31'1) andSSL the suspended sediment load (t m'3). Activity on suspended seduiKuu b lost todie underlying bo xes w hen particulates settle out. Th e fractional transfer from a watercolumn (bo x 0 to the sediments (bo x j) due to sedimentation b given by:

_ _ & 3 _where dt (m) b the mean water depth of the water column and SR (t m'2 y') the massscdkncntabon rate.Resuspension of sediment material including radkiactrvity from the surface sedimentlayer to th e water column b induded in die model to account for the higher suspendedsediment load s in shallow coastal regions. Resuspen sion b con sidered within eachregion and b caused mainly by wind and tidal forcing. The model also includes thetransfers of radioactivity between the surface sediment layer and the bottom boundaryfaryer oomprbing diffiisrvity through the pore water using a diffusion coefficient of MO'* m2 s'1 and mixin g due to bioturbation mo delled as a diffusive process using a diffusioncoefficient o f 1 1 0 '" m 2 s ' (E C 1995 ). Furthermore, removal of activity from die to psurface sediment to lower sediment layers b taken into account by assuming that theburial rate b equal to the ftux of particles which settle from the overlying waters.Radioactive decay b included in all the boxes.The dispersion of radioactive material in the marine environment b modelled from thedescription given abo ve The contamination of fish, crustaceans and molluscs b furthercalculated from the radionuclide concentrations in filtered seawater in the differentwate r regions- For th b purpose concentration factors for biological material are used.Th b factor b dimensionless and give s the ratio of the radionuclide concentration in thebiolog ical m aterial to that in filtered seawater. Values from the Marina study (CE C1990) have been used and are shown in the Appendix A in Table A3 which gives forthe different radionuclides studied, the halflives, the K j's, the con centration factors forfish, crustaceans and m olluscs, and the d ose factors for ingestion.Data for the catch of seafood in the various regions have been compiled from theMarina study (CEC 1990) supplied with information obtained from the MARDOSproject (IAEA 1994) which has dealt with a global assessment of doses to man fromradioactivity in the marine environment. The following assumptions (CE C 19 90 ) forthe edible fractions o f marine produce to the human diet are used: 50% for fish, 35%for cmsta cea and 15% for molluscs The quantities of marine produce used for thecalculations ar. sho wn in the Appendix A in Table A4 . The total intakes o f activity byman are converted to collective doses by multiplication with the appropriate factors fordo se per unit intake.

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2-2. MODEL RELIABILITYThe reliability of model predictions is a key issue in connection with aB kinds offorecast based on modeffing. The refaabttty of the results from the present model iscommented on three points One point refers to a comparison made betweenobservations and model calculations o f seawater concentrations of radioactive tracersThe second point compares collective doses calculated with two different models, andthe third point concerns the quality of the bask data used to build the moddThe regional box mo dd which covers thenorth-west European coastal areas and formspart of the present mo dd, wa s used for a comparison with observed concentrations o fradionuclides in seawater (Nielsen 1995) The radionuclides are mCs, * i c and mSbdischarged from the tw o European reprocessing plants: Sd bfidd in the UnitedKingdom and La Hague in France. The comparison between observations andpredictions resulted in adjustments of the modd with respect to the mixing condmonsin the English Cham d and North Sea in addition to the water transport from the NorthSea to the Baltic Sea. An analysis of the predicted-to-observed scawaterconcentrations indicated an overall predictive accuracy o f 0 9 corresponding to a 10%underestimation and a predictive precision of about a factor of 2 .5 at a confidence k v dof 95%. The l25Sb data were not used for the modd adjustments and these datasupport the general conclusions about the modd predictions of radionuclideconcentrations in the seawater.The present modd has been used with inputs of '"Cs covering talkxit from tests ofnuclear weapons in the atmosphere, fallout from the Chernobyl accident in 1986 androutine discharges from the two reprocessing plants, Seflafidd and La Hague. Theresults of these calculations are shown in Table 1 which for comparison showscorresponding numbersfromthe CEC Marina project It is important to note that thereare significant differences between the assurnptiore behind the two sets of results TheMarina study involved a large number of radionuclides in addition to ,J7Cs, otherexposure pathways than that of ingestion, and considered only doses to members of theEuropean Community. However, in the Marina study l37Cs w as found to be the mostimportant radionuclide by contributing about 40% of the collective dose, and ingestionoffish was found to be the most important exposure pathway It is therefore of interestto make a rough comparison between the two sets of results, and this comparison d oesnot indicate significant differences between the resultsTable I. Collective doses calculated with the present model {}7Cs only) comparedwith resultsfrom he Marina study (CEC 1990).Source Collective dose to year 2500 (manSv)__ This study ('"CsjonlyJ __Marina study

Reprocessing plants 2100 220 0Weapons test fallout 1900 1600Chernobyl fallout 840 1000The third point is related to the quality of the 3D World Ocean Circulation Modd(Marti 1992) which was used to derive the structure and water flux es for the boxmod d. The World Ocean model has been used to calculate the dispersion of a number10 Ris-R-84I(EN)


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of tracers with the emulated steady-state circulation and compared with in situ data.Th e agreement w as sausfymg and the E mted discrepancies were explained (Charner1993). so this model is considered useful for the catanation o ftong-rangedispersion ofconservative or serm-conservahve tracers and to provide any water mass fluxes in theWorld Ocean. A number of items have been considered for the design o f the structureo f the box model (e g time scale of the problem, ICES fishing areas, local marinehydrodynamics, vertical gradients), and data on the water m ass fluxes betw een adjacentbox es have been extracted from the World Ocean Circulation Model. Following expertreview (AdUndsvik 1993 ) of the fluxes given by the World Ocean circulation Mo del,modifications have been made to take into account in situ observations of currents inthe Arctic Ocean. The reliability o f the resulung box m odel thus derived has not beenquantified except for areas far from the A rctic Ocean , but qualitatively it ca n b e statedthat the box model is based on up-to-date expertise.

3. SOURCE TERMSThe source terms considered have been selected o n the basis o f information from theWhite Book No. 3 (1993) and on information from the Source Term Group from theIASA P project previously mentioned. The White Boo k g ives little radionudide-specific information and presents the amounts of solid reactor waste dumped in termso f "Sr-equrvaknt activity in curies. The report specifies the liquid radioactive wa stedischarged at sea in terms of total activity only, and this is also the case for the almostall dumpings o f spent nuclear fuel.It ha s here been assum ed that radioactivity in liquid and solid reactor wa ste (LR W andSRW) is dominated by the four radionuclides: 3H, "Co , *Sr and l3 7C s, and that theyoccur in equal amounts of activity at the time o f dumping or discharge. For spentnuclear fuel (SNF), information has been obtained from the IASAP Source TermGrou p w ho are estimating radionuclide-specific release rates from th e dumped reactorcompartments (including 3H, "C o, '*Ni, wS r, IJ*I, ,3 7Cs, 739Pu and M IAm )The White Book gives detailed information on the geographical locations of thedischarges of liquid reactor waste and o f the dumpings of solid reactor wa ste and spentnuclear fuel Th e use o f that information in the present assessment has been limited tothe spatial resolution of the present model. How ever for the spent nuclear wastedumped in the fjords on the east coast of Novaya Zernrya, a generic model fjord wasused to simulate the receiving environment before exchange with the Western KaraSea. The fjord w as considered having a volume o f 0.5 km 3, an average depth of 20 mand an exchange rate with the Kara Sea o f I km 3 y' . The LRW and SRW dischargeshave thus been assumed t o occ ur directly into either the Western Kara Sea (box 1) orthe Barents Sea (box 25 and 27) w hile the SNF discharges have been assumed to occureither into the fjord o r the trough of the Kara Sea (box 3 ). The limited spatialresolutron of the model reduces the potential fo r making a detailed local assessment,but not for a regional or global assessment

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3 . 1 . U N I T R E L E A S E S

The assessment is based on separate calculations for each radionuclide (no decay chainsare considered). Therefore, a series of calculations w ere made based on instantaneousreleases of one terabecquerel (TBq = 1012 Bq) of each of the eight above mentionedradionuclides in soluble form into a fjord on the east coast o f Novay a Zem lya

3 . 2 . TWO RELEASE SCENARIOSThe White Book gives information on the location and time of disposal of the variouswaste forms. The liquid and solid radioactive waste is here assumed to be instantlyavailable in soluble form for dispersion at the time of discharge. For the sp ent nucltarfuel tw o release scenarios have been adopted. These are based on preliminary releaserates from the dumped reactor compartment o f the icebreaker Lenin estimated by th eIASA P Source Term Group. Simple scaling has been used to estimate release ratesfrom other dumped reactor compartments based on revised estimates of tota l a ctivitiesat the time o f dumping.One scenario (1) represents a worst-case calculation and assumes release ofradionuclides from the nuclear fuel to the seawater ignoring possible containment (e .g.fuel encapsulation and reactor tank). The rate of release is thus determined by thecorrosion of the fuel by the seawater. This scenario gives conservatively highconsequences by not considering the barriers that delay the a ccess o f fresh seawater tothe fuel and subsequently th e fuel corrosion. The other scenario (2) is a m ore probableone that does take into account various containment barriers thus allowing for furtherdecay o f the shorter-lived radionuclides prior to release to seawater. The scenariofurthermore includes an assumption o f a massive event occurring at ab out 100 yearsafter dumping resulting in a significant increased release of radionuclides to theenvironment The total amounts of radionuclides released assumed for the calculationsare shown in Table 2.Table 2. Total \ %ru -J releases of liquid and solid radioactive waste, and spentnuclear fuel (i l>' into the Kara Sea and B arents Sea assumed for the calculations ofthe two scenaric *NuclidesH-3Co-60Ni-63Sr-901-129Cs-137Pu-239Am-241Total

L R V + C - ,363363363363

1451

' SNF1

11317921800.001236611948S8

SNF2

0.00010.22710.002318108607

Total Scenario 1(worst case)36347617925430.00127291196309

Total Scenario2(probable case)3633630.263 40.0026811082058

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The tw o release scenarios are shown in graphical form in Figures 4, S and 6. Figure 4show s the assumed release from LRW and SRW with time to the Arctic waters. Thepeak in 1976 is related to a discharge of liquid reactor waste to the Kara Sea from thenuclear icebreaker Lenin and the peak in 1988 from a discharge of liquid waste in theBarents Sea The Figures S and 6 show the assumed releases of radioactivity to theArctic watersfromthe spent nuclear fuel. Figure S show s the assumptions for Scenario1 (worst case) which is characterised by declining releases from the time of dumpingfor all radionuclides except for 24 ,Am which grows in from 24 lPu. Figure 6 shows theassumptions for Scenario 2 which gives lower release rates than for Scenario 1; thetime course is characterised by the assumption of a major event about 100 years afterthe time of dumping which causes a marked increase in the rate of release for mostradionuclides. As seen from Table 2, a total release of about 6 PBq i s assumed forScenario 1 and about 2 PBq for Scenario 2

LRW AND SRW DISCHARGES

3>SI

100

80

60

40

20

AH*j

i

( I: \

^ '.. T V -

1 1

I' 1 \ *i t V . L

-Barents SMNsrt h (25)Barants Saa South (27)Kara Saa Wast (1 )Novaya Zarrr/a Fjords (1 39)Kara Saa Trough (3)

1960 1965 1970 1975 1960YEAR

1965 1990 1995

Figur e 4. Release o f liquid and solid radioactive waste w ith time (TBq y'1) inArctic waters for the radionuclides 3H, 60Co, '"Sr and 1J7Cs (assumed to occur inequal amounts of activity for each nuclide)

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ct$

100E-O7

SNF DISCHARGES, WORST CASE

-Sr-90-M29-C*-137-Co-60-63-fti-239-Am-241

2500

Figure 5. Assumed rate of release of radioactivity (TBq y"1) from spent nuclearfuel for worst-case scenario.

r o o e r a100& 01too&oo100601100602100603

J 100604100605100606100607

I

1006081900

SNF DISCHARGES. PROBABLE CASE

Sr-901-129Cfc-137CD-60M-63PU-239Anv241

2000 2500

Figure 6. Assumed rate of release of radioactivity (TBq y '1) from spent nuclearfuel for probable-case scenario.

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4. RESULTS4 .1 . DOSES FROM DISCHARGES OF UNIT ACTIVITY

The results of th e calculations o f the unit discharges o f 1 TBq for the radionuclides 3H,*Co, "Sr , m C s , 23 9Pu and 24 ,A m into the Kara Sea and the Barents S ea are shown ingraphs for selected loca tions in Appendix B. These graphs give unfiltered seaw aterconcentrations (Bq m"3), surface sediment concentrations (Bq kg'1 dw) and collectivedoses (manSv) shown a s a function of time. An overview of the results is given inTable 3 which lists the relative collective d oses in different regions. The table also giv esthe absolute values of the collective doses integrated to 1000 years and indicates thedominating ex posure pathways.

Table 3. Collective doses in different regions for each radionuclide from dischargesof unit activity (1 TBq) into a generic fjord located on the east coast of NovayaZem fya. The doses are given in percent of the dose from the domina ting pathway.Total doses are given in mansieverts.

Region (box no ) H-3 Co-60 Ni-63 Sr-90 1-129 Cs-137 Pu-239 Am-241Barents Sea (25 +2 7)Norwegian Sea (32)Denmark Strait (3 5)Faroe Channel (3 8)Labrador Sea (43)North American Basin (45 )Sargasso Sea (51)Cap Verde Basin (53 )Other Oceans (59 )Scottish Waters West (61)French Continental Shelf (87)North Sea Central (107)North Sea North (111 )Collective dose (manSv)Dominating pathway

66%11%4%2%4%0.3%0.1%1%

60%16%4%1%2%0.1%0.02%0.2%0.1% 0.004%1%0.1%1%1%3E-08

1%0.1%0.1%0.4%5E-05

30%11%4%4%8%2%2%8%8%2%0.3%1%2%3E-05

53%11%5%3%6%1%1%3%1%2%0.2%!%2%1E-04

10%5%2%3%5%3%2%9%40%2%0 2 %1%2%4E-02

54%11%5%3%7%1%1%4%1%2%0.2%1%2%3E-03

3%2%1%1%15%8%3%6%38%1%4%0.2%0.4%3E-02

1%2%1%1%33%11%4%6%19%0.3%8%0.02%0.1%1E-03Fish Fish Fish Fish Fish Fish Mollusc Mollusc

For 3H, *Co, ""Sr and 137Cs the relative geographical do se distributions are quite similarand fish consum ption is the dominating exposure pathway. For the longer-livednuclides 63 Ni, ,2 9I, 239Pu and 24 lAm the relative geographical dose distributions aredifferent, giving rise to collective doses in regions far from the Arctic waters Thenuclides ' ^ and 239Pu give the highest collective dose per unit discharge, while 3Hgives the low est. Ingestion o f fish is the dominating exposure pathway for all thenuclides except for 239Pu and 24 lAm where the collective dose is dominated by theconsumption of molluscs

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4 . 2 . DOSES FROM TWO RELEASE SCENARIOSThe firstscenario (1 ) represents a wor st-case calculation by ignoring the isolation o f thesolid w aste including the SNF from the seawater (eg the encapsulation of the nuclearfuel, the reactor vessel and the packaging). Th e second scenario (2) represents a morerealistic ca se of rdease of activity fro m the solid waste taking into consideration thecorrosion of the protective barriers of the dumped waste over a period of 10 0 y fromthe time o f dumping. The doses have been integrated over 1 000 y for 63 Ni, "Sr, 129I,m C s , D 9Pu and 241Am and over 250 y for 'H and *Co.The results of the calculations are shown in Table 4 wh ich gives the collective do ses foreach radionuclide and the total collective do ses for the tw o rdc ase scenarios.Table 4. Collective doses (manS v, rounded) calculated to 1000 years for the tworelease scenarios.

NuclideCs-137Co-60Sr-90Pu-239Am-241Ni-631-129H-3Total

Scenario 1worst case

(manSv)7.9

0.470.390.280.010.0052E-052E-05

9.1

(% )87543

0.10.05

0.00030.0002

100

Scenario 2probable case

(manSv)2.30.460.110.260.01

5E-066E-052E-05

3.2

(% )731538

0.20.00010.0020.0005

100

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1 0 0 E 0 0

1.00C-Q2

10OE-O8

10OE-1O C*i1950 1970

I < 1990 2 010

Y E A R2 030 2 050

Figure 7. Collective dose rates for Scenario 1 (worst case) showing the contributions from the different radionuclides.

1 0 0 E - 0 1

i ooe-11

Figure 8. Collective dose rates for Scenario 2 (probable case) showing thecontributions from the different radionuclides.

The total collective dose for Scenario 1 is calculated at a value of 9 manSv dominatedby the contribution from ,37Cs (about 90%). The total collective dose for Scenario 2 iscalculated at a value of 3 manSv also dominated by the contribution f rom l37Cs (about70%).The collective dose rates for the two scenarios are shown in Figure 7 and Figure 8. ForScenario 1 the total collective dose rate peaks at about 0.3 manSv per year and at about0.1 manSv per year for Scenario 2. For both scenarios l37Cs and MCo are seen to

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dominate the peak collective dose rate while the long-lived transuranics 23 9Pu and24 1Am dominate the collective d os e rates at longer time scalesTime courses of radionuclide concentrations in seawater and surface sediments areshow n in Appendix C for the wor st-case release scenario in selected regions: WesternKara Sea (bo x 1), Barents Sea (box 27), Chuckchi Sea (box 13), Greentand Sea (box29 ) and Central North Sea (box 107).

5. CONCLUSIONSA bo x m odel for the dispersion o f radionuclides in the marine environment co vering theArctic Ocean and the North Atlantic Ocean has been constructed. The model is b asedon updated information on water mixing in the European coastal waters, and thehydrodynamical data used in the m odel for the Arctic Ocean and North Atlantic O ceanare derived from a 3-dimensional World Ocean circulation model. A limitedcomparison of the model predictions of conservative radionuclide seawaterconcentrations with annual averages of measured data in European coastal watersindicates agreement within 10%. Th e model includes the transfer o f radionuclides toseabed sediments.The basic input data for the model have been assumed identical to th ose that were u sedin the CEC M arina study (CEC 1990 ). This study dealt with an assessment o f theradiological ex posure o f the population o f the European Community from radioactivityin North European marine waters. Generic valuesfromthese data were used w here noother information w as available. This applies especially for the Arctic waters for w hichlimited site-specific information on concentration o f particulate matter in the wa ter andsedimentation rates were available for this work. These tw o parameters are importantfor the prediction of dispersion in the marine environment especially with respect to thesediment-reactive radionuclides (*Co, 6JNi, B*Pu and24 1 Am )Collective doses to the world population have been calculated from ingestion ofradionuclides in contaminated seafoo d (fish, crustaceans and molluscs). The levels ofcontamination in seafood have been estimated from the levels in filtered seawaterpredicted by the mod el, and data on the human intake of seafood are based on fisherystatistics The ingestion pathways covered here are believed to accoun t for the mainpart of the collective do se. In the Marina study these pathways accounted for 8 9% ofthe total collective do se to the European populationThe reliability of the predictions produced by the present model has not been testedquantitatively Ho wever, it has been verified that the results (total collective do ses)from the present model are not in disagreement with those from the Marina study. It isfurthermore believed that the collective doses estimated in this preliminary assessmentare within an order of magnitude of those obtained from using more site-specificinformation and based on the same radionuclide release scenarios.

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Collective doses have been calculated from single releases of 1 TBq of theradionuclides *H, w Co, "Ni , wSr, ,2*I, I3 7Cs, 2J9Pu and 24 lAm into a fjord on the eastcoast of Novaya Zemtya. These results show that doses for the shorter-livedradionuclides 3H, w C o , w Sr and ,3 7Cs are derived mainly from seafood production inthe Barents Sea. The do ses from the longer-lived radionuclides 63Ni and ,2 9I derive to asmaller extent from seafood production in the Barents Sea and more on seafoodproduction from regions further from the Arctic Seas. Dos es for the radionuclidesB*Pu and 24 lAm are delivered through marine produce farfromthe Arctic Ocean.Collective doses have furthermore been calculated for two release scenarios, bothbased on information of the dumping of radioactive waste in the Barents Sea and KaraSea by the former Soviet Union (White Book No. 3, 1993) and on preliminaryinformation from the International Arctic Sea Assessm ent Programme organised by theInternational Atomic Energy Agency. A worst-case scenario (1 ) has been selectedaccording to which it w as assumed that all radionuclides in liquid and solid radioactivewaste were available for dispersion in the marine environment at the time of dumping,thus leaving no time for decay o f short-lived radionuclides prior to release. Relea se o fradionuclides from spent nuclear fuel (from dumped damaged nuclear reactors) wasassumed by direct corrosion o f the fuel ignoring the barriers that prevent direct contactbetween the fuel and the seawater. Another scenario (2) was selected according towhich the releases o f radionuclides from spent nuclear fuel were not assumed to occuruntil after degradation o f the protective barriers. All other liquid and solid radioactivewaste was assumed to be available for dispersion at the time of discharge in bothscenarios.Collective doses (calculated to 1000 years) give for the worst-case scenario a value ofabout 9 manSv and a value for the second scenario a value of about 3 manSv In bothcases l3 7Cs is the radionuclide predicted to dominate the collective do ses as well as thepeak collective dose rates, which are about 0.3 manSv per year for Scenario 1 andabout 0.1 manSv per year for Scenario 2.A comparison with the results from the Marina study shows that the radiologicalsensitivity (collective dose per unit discharge, e.g. manSv per PBq) of discharges ofl3 7Cs to the Kara Sea is m ore than one order of magnitude lower (3 manSv PBq'1) thanthat of discharges of ,3 7Cs to the Irish Sea (50 manSv PBq"1) The main reason for thisdifference is the low productivity of seafood for human consumption in the Polarwaters compared with that in the European coastal waters.

6. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTThis work has been sponsored by the Royal Norwegian Ministry of the Environmentand the Nordic N uclear Research Programme (NK S).

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7. REFERENCESBreton, M. and Salomon , J.C., 1995. A 2D long-term advection-dispersion model for

the Channel and Southern North Sea. Part A: Validation through com parisonwith artificial radionuclides. Accep ted by Journal o f Marine System s.

Camplin, W. C , Clark, M . J. and Delo w, C. E., 1982. The radiation exposure of theUK population from liquid effluents discharged from civil nuclear installationsin the UK in 1978 . National Radiological Protection Roard, Chilton, UK .

CEC, 1990. The radiological exposure of the population o f the European communityfrom radioactivity in North European marine waters, Project "Marina1,Commission of the European Communities, Bruxelles, EUR 12483.

Chattier, M. 1993 . Radiological assessment of dumping in the Kara and Barents Seas:Design of a compartmental structure for the Arctic Ocean and surroundingoceans. CE TU S, Ivry sur Seine, France.

Dozhdikov, S.I., Zhuravkov, A M . andZolotkov, A.A. 1993(7). Corrosion resistanceof spent nuclear fuel in sea water (Translated from Russian). I. V. KurchatovInstitute of A tom ic Energy, M osco w; M urmansk Marine Shipping Company.

EC , 1995 . M ethod ology for assessing the radiological consequen ces o f routinereleases of radionuclides to the environment, European Commission,Luxembourg, EUR 15760 EN.

Hallstadius, L., Garcia-Montano, E., Nilsson, U. and Boelskifte, S., 1 987 Animproved and validated dispersion model for the North Sea and adjacentwaters. J. Environ. Radioactivity, 5 :261-2 74.

IAEA , 1994. Sou rces o f radioactivity in the marine environment and their relativecontributions to overall dose assessment from marine radioactivity(M AR DO S), Final Report o f the CRP. IAEA -ME L-R2/94. InternationalAtom ic Energy A gency, Marine Environment Laboratory, Mon aco.

Kirchner, T.B ., 198 9. TIME-ZER O, The integrated modeling environment, EcologicalModelling, 47:33-52.

Marti, 0 . 19 92. Etude de I'Ocean Mondial: Mo dlisation de la circulation et dutransport des traceurs anthropiques. Doctor thesis from University Pierre andMadam e Curie, Paris.

Mount, M E , Sheaffer, M.K and Abbott, D.T. 1993. Estimated inventory ofradionuclides in former Soviet Union naval reactors dumped in the Kara Sea.Proc. of the International Conference on Environmental Radioactivity in theArctic and Antarctic, Kirkenes, Norw ay, 23 -27 Augu st 1 993.

Nielsen, S.P. and Aarkrog, A , 1988. A model performance test for the aquaticdispersion o f radionuclides in the North-East Atlantic waters. In: Proceedingsof the workshop on "Methods for Assessing the Reliability of EnvironmentalTransfer Mod el Predictions" held in Athens, 5-9 O ctober 1987. C omm ission ofthe European Communities, Bruxelles, EU R 113 67.Nielsen, S.P., 1995. A box model for North-East Atlantic coastal waters comparedwith radioactive tracers. Accepted by Journal of Marine System s.

NR PB and CEA, 1979 Methodology for evaluating the radiological consequences ofradioactive effluents released in normal operations, Commission of theEuropean Communities, Bruxelles, Doc, N o. V/3 865 /1//9-E N,

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Platovskikh, Y.A ., Rubanov, S M and Sergeev, IV . 1992. Ecological problemscaused by the sinking of a nuclear vessel (Translated from Russian). A N .Krylov Central Scientific Research Institute.

Schonfdd, W ., 199S . Numerical simulation of the dispersion o f artificial radionuclidesin the English Channel and the North Sea . Accep ted by Journal o f MarineSystems.

Sivintsev, Y. 1993 . The sedbed sources of radionuclides in the dumped reactorcompartment o f atomic icebreaker "Lenin". Proc. of the InternationalConference on Environmental Radioactivity in the Arctic and Antarctic,Kirkenes, Norway, 23-27 August 1993

White Bo ok N o. 3 , 199 3 Facts and Problems Related to Radioactive Waste Disposalin Seas Adjacent to the Territory of the Russian Federation. Materials for aReport by the Government Commission on Matters Related to RadioactiveWaste Disposal at Sea, Created by Decree No. 613 of the Russian FederationPresident, October 24,1992; Moscow.

Adlandsvik, B. 199 3. Norw egian Institute o f Marine Research, Bergen. Personalcommunication.

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8. APPENDIX A, Basic model input dataThis appendix contains tables that list the numerical input information on which the boxmodel is based.Table Al. List of model water boxes giving box numbers, names of regions, volumes(m 3), mean depths (m), suspendedsediment loads (SSL, t m'J an d sedimentation rates(SMm 3/').Box RegionNo. Volume Depth4L_ SSL( t m 3 ) SR( t m - y )1 Western Kara Sea3 Western Kara Sea deepS Eastern Kara Sea7 Laptev Sea, upper8 Laptev Sea, lower10 Eurasin Basin, upper11 Eurasin Basin, lower

13 East Siberian Sea, upper14 East Siberian Sea, lower16 Beaufort Sea, upper17 Beaufort Sea, lower19 Canadian Arctic Sea, upper20 Canadian Arctic Sea, lower22 Makarov and Fram Basins, upper23 Makarov and Fram Basins, lower25 Barents Sea North27 Barents Sea South29 Greenland Sea, upper30 Greenland Sea, lower32 Norwegian Sea, upper33 Norwegian Sea, lower35 Denmark Strait, upper36 Denmark Strait, lower38 Faroe Channel40 Irminger Basin, upper41 Irminger Basin, lower43 Labrador Sea45 North American Basin47 Central North Atlantic49 Western Europe Basin51 Sargasso Sea53 Cap Verde Basin55 Guyana Basin57 Gulf of Guinea59 Remaining World Ocean61 Scottish Waters West63 Scottish Waters East

1.2E+1316E+137.0E+132.2E+144.8E+142.7E+142.7E+153.6E+I49.9E+142.6E+148.8E+142.1E+141.4E+154.7E+144.1E+151.6E+141.6E+142.5E+141.4E+152.9E+141.7E+151.3E+148.0E+131.9E+151.3E+141.1E+I56.0E+15I.9E+I61.5E+162.2E+I54.6E+164.0E+161.3E+165.6E+151.1E+181.0E+133.0E+12

7.0E+0I2.5E+027.0E+0I3.3E+027.0E-K)233E+0232E+0333E+029.0E+023 3E+0212E+033.3E+022.2E+033.3E+022.9E+032.0E+022.0E+023.3E+021.8E+0333E+021.9E+0333E+0220E+0214E+033.3E+0227E+032.0E+034.5E+034.0E+032.7E+033.5E+034.5E+0340E+034.7E+033.8E+031.1E+021.1E+02

3E-066E-063E-063E-Q61E-061E-061E-061E-061E-061E-061E-061E-061E-061E-061E-066E-066E-061E-061E-061E-061E-061E-061E-061E-061E-061E-061E-061E-061E-061E-061E-061E-061E-061E-061E-061E-061E-06

IE-033E-04IE-031E-042E-051E-042E-051E-042E-051E-042E-051E-042E-051E-042E-055E-04IE-031E-042E-051E-042E-051E-042E-051E-041E-042E-052E-052E-052E-052E-052E-052E-052E-052E-052E-051E-041E-04

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TabkAl ContinuedBox RegionNo. Volume Depth SSL SR65 Irish Sea North W est

67 Irish Sea North69 Irish Sea North East71 Irish Sea W est73 Irish Sea South East75 Cumbrian Waters77 Irish Sea South79 Liverpool and Morcambre Bay81 Celtic Sea83 Bristol Channel85 Bay of Biscay87 French Continental Shelf89 Cantabrian Sea91 Portuguese Continental Shelf93 Gulf of Cadiz95 Mediterranean Sea97 English Channel West99 English channel South East101 English Channel North East103 North S ea South W est105 North Sea South East107 North Sea Central109 North Sea East111 North Sea North113 Skagerrak115 Kattegat, deep117 Kattegat, surface119 Belt Sea, deep121 Belt Sea, surface123 Baltic Sea West, deep125 Baltic Sea East, deep127 Baltic Sea West, surface129 Baltic Sea East, surface131 B othnianSea133BothnianBay

135 G ulf of Finland137 Gulf of Riga

4IE+1160E+105.2E+1066E+1116E+1138E+101.1E+123.2E+1020E+131.0E+1265E+1435E+133 0E+13I5E+I323E+144.0E+153.2E+126.5E+II6 5E+114 5E+119.5E+1113E+131.2E+125 6E+136.8E+122.0E+113 2E+1114E+111 5E+117 7E+111.5E+123.8E+127.0E+124.9E+121.5E+12I.IE+I24.1E+11

9.3E+013 4E+012.4E+0163E+013 1E+0I28E+015 7E+0113E+0115E+025.0E+0140E+033 5E+027.6E+0249E+021.7E+031 3E+036.0E+O14.0E+OI4 0E+013.1E+0137E+0150E+012.2E+012.4E+022IE+0210E+022 0E+013 0E+0114E+011 IE+021.1E+024.9E+015.3E+016.2E+014 1E+013.7E+012.3E+01

3E-063E-063E-063E-063E-063E-061E-063E-061E-061E-061E-061E-061E-061E-061E-061E-061E-06IE-061E-066E-066E-066E-066E-066E-06IE-06IE-06IE-06IE-06IE-06IE-06IE-06IE-06IE-06IE-06IE-06IE-06IE-06

2E-035E-035E-032E-035E-035E-031E-045E-031E-041E-041E-051E-042E-042E-045E-051E-041E-04IE-041E-04IE-04IE-04IE-04IE-04IE-045E-045E-045E-045E-045E-045E-045E-045E-045E-045E-045E-045E-045E-04

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Table AZ Exchange rales ofwaterFrom To Flux From Tobox i1113

555577788101010101011111111131314141616161717171919191920202022222222

3527117222581022711711

131922810202310141113131719141620162022431719237101923

(k m V ) box b ox32E+0395E+029 5E+0232E+0395E+0285E+0352E+0495E+033.7E+0469E+0418E+0421E+0413E+0529E+0433E+0428E+0316E+0510E+0555E+0422E+048 8E+041.1E+0519E+05I4E+0546E+0414E+0515E+054 5E+044 7E+0347E+0456E+0415E+0415E+0532E+0418E+0414E+0474E+042.2E+0480E+046.5E+0447E+042 5E+043 2E+04

38383838383838404040404041414143434345454747474749494949494949515151535353535355555557

333 53 6404961H I3 5384143494043494 0414747514345495338404147818589455355475157919351575953

between adjacent boxes (bm 3y'j.Flux From To Flux( k n i V ) box box ( k m V )1 5E+05 81 85 15E+052.3E+04 81 87 14E+051.8E+05 81 97 70E+0 32.1E+05 83 81 20E +032.6E+05 85 49 67E+ 058.3E+03 85 81 15E+053.4E+04 85 87 5.8E+051 7E-K>5 85 89 3.9E+051.4E+05 87 81 14E+056 3E+04 87 85 5 8E+053 3E+05 87 89 75E+ 049 6E+04 89 49 1 1E+051 3E+04 89 85 3 9E+0580E+05 89 87 75E+046 3E+05 89 91 15E+052.1E+05 91 53 46E +054.7E+05 91 89 1.5E+051.1E+06 91 93 6 0E+046 8E+05 93 53 51E+ 051 5E+06 93 91 5 8E+0462E+05 93 95 53E+ 043 1E+05 95 93 5.1E+049.9E+05 97 81 20E +035 3E+05 97 99 3.5E+0376E +05 97 101 3 5E+032 1E+05 99 97 10E+034.5E-H)5 99 101 3 0E+025 5E+05 99 105 60E +031.2E+04 101 97 10E+0367E +0 5 101 99 3.7E+031.1E-K)5 101 105 5 0E+011 9E+06 103 105 61E+ 026.7E+05 103 107 3.8E+021 1E+06 105 99 5.0E+011.2E+05 105 101 1.0E+0312E +06 105 103 2.9E+02I.6E+05 105 107 4.6E+024.6E+05 105 109 7.3E+035.1E+05 107 63 00E +008.7E+05 107 103 7.0E+0249 E+0 5 107 105 O.OE+001 1E+06 107 109 9.7E+033 4E+05 107 111 6.9E+03

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Table/\j. ContinuedFrom Tobox box22222223

23232323252525252727272929292930303030323232323233333335353536363638

2529438112022305222732125322230323523293336252729333830323836384035384132

Flux From To( k m V ) b ox box16E+049 1E+0414E+0460E+0469E+044.0E+0446E+0412E+0469E+0485E+0395E+03I9E+0495E+0277E+0432E+0447E+0492E+0420E+0419E+0522E+0330E+046 1E+0414E+054.4E+0399E+0423E+0574E+0463E+0313E+0546E+041 1E+0519E+0574E+0416E+0528E+0428E+044 5E+053 0E+05

5757595959616161636363656565676767696971717173737373737575757777777979818181

555913555738636561107111616771656 973677565737767717577796 9737971738173754 97783

Ftux From( k m V ) b o x14E+056 1E+0528E+0412E+0644E+0550E+021 1E+045.0E+O350E+0280E+0324E+0374E+033 3E+025 1E+0283E+02I8E+0217E+0229E+021.0E+0224E+039.3E+026.0E+0257E+024 3E+022.3E+027 5E+0113E+0220E+021.5E+023.5E+0130E+037.5E+016.0E+021 1E+0255E+0146E+0330E+032.0E+03

107109109109111H I111111113113113113115115117117119119119121121123123123125125127127127129129129129129131131133135

Tox>x1131051071133863107113107109111115117119113

115121125129117119121125127123129121123129125127131135137127133131129

Flux(kmV)56E+0324E+0387E+0359E+0350E+04OOE+0000E-KX)50E+0355E+0300E+O012E+041.5E+0393E+027.2E+0220E+03I.0E+0293E+0222E+022.7E+0212E+0370E+022.2E+022.2E+0220E+0244E+022 1E+027.2E+0220E+0244E+032 1E+024 1E+0377E+0280E+0031E+029.7E+0237E+024.7E+0213E+02

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Table A3. Nuclide-specific data used in the calculations: H alflives, sedimentconcentration factors (KJ, biological concentration factors (CF ) forfish,crustaceansand molluscs, and factors (DF)for dose per unit intake by ingestion.Nuclide Halflife Kd CF CF CF DF(y) (m 3 f' ) (fish) (crustacea) (mollusc) (S v B q 1)H-3Co-60Sr-90Cs-137Pu-239Am-241Ni-631-129

Table A4.

12.35.2729.130.0241004339615700000

Quantities

1 1200000 10001000 23000 100lOuOOO 402000000 50100000 100020 10

of marine produce (t

15000230300500100010

' / ' ) offisi

15000130300020000200010

1.8E-113.4E-092.8E-081.3E-082.5E-072.0E-0715E-101.1E-07

\ crustacea and molluscsthe calculations.BoxNo. Region FishM l

Crustacea Molluscs(tv 1 )25 Barents Sea North27 Barents Sea South29 Greenland Sea, upper32 Norwegian Sea, upper35 Denmark Strait, upper38 Faroe Channel40 Irminger Basin, upper43 Labrador Sea45 North American Basin47 Central North Atlantic49 Western Europe Basin

51 Sargasso Sea53 Cap Verde Basin55 Guyana Basin57 Gulf of Guinea59 Remaining World Ocean61 Scottish Waters West63 Scottish Waters East65 Irish Sea North West67 Irish Sea North69 Irish Sea North East71 Irish Sea West73 Irish Sea South East75 Cumbrian Waters77 Irish Sea South79 Liverpool and Morcambre Bay

3.6E+053.6E+055.0E+027.3E+053.1E+055.5E+052.7E+041.1E+061.1E+069.1E+041.3E+051.0E+063.2E+062.0E+056.0E+055.6E+073.3E+051.0E+057.1E+031.1E+039.0E+021.2E+042.8E+036.6E+021.9E+045.6E+02

1.7E+041.7E+048.8E+016.0E+035.3E+035.4E+033.8E+031.3E+051.3E+059.IE+022.1E+055.6E+044.0E+041.0E+043.4E+067.0E+031.9E+031.1E+033.7E+028.4E+021.6E+034.5E+022.9E+022.7E+037.8E+02

4.4E+024.4E+025.5E+034.0E+035 1E+031.0E+003.7E+053 7E+051.4EI-0317E+051.8E+054.0E+043.0E+046.0E+064.8E+031.3E+031.7E+035.8E+021.3E+032.3E+036.9E+024.4E+023.8E+031.2E+03

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Table 4. ContinuedBox RegionNo.81 Celtic Sea83 Bristol Channel87 French Continental Shelf89 Cantabrian Sea

91 Portuguese Continental Shelf93 Gulf of Cadi295 Mediterranean Sea97 English Channel West99 English channel South East101 English Channel Nonh East103 North Sea South West105 North Sea South East107 North Sea Central109 North Sea East111 North Sea North113 Skagerrak115 Kattegat, deep117 Kattegat, surface119 Belt Sea, deep121 Belt Sea, surface127 Baltic Sea West, surface129 Baltic Sea East, surface131 BothnianSea133 BothnianBay135 Gulf of Finland137 Gulf of Riga

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9. APPEN DIX B, Results of unit releasesThis appendix co ntains graphical presentations of selected results of the calculations o funit releases in the generic model fjord on the east coast o f Novaya Zemlya T h eresults o f seawater concentrations (not filtered), surface sediment concentrations andintegrated collective dos es are show n versus time The discharges are made at yearzero and calculations are made until year 1000 for the longer lived nuclides and shorterfor th e others. T h e graphs show th e calculated seawater concentrations for theWestern Kara Sea (box 1), the Southern Barents Sea (box 27), the Chuckchi Sea (box13), the Greenland Sea (box 29) and the Central North Sea (box 107). th e sedimentconcentrations are from the corresponding sediment boxes no 2 , 2 8 , 15, 31 and 108Furthermore, th e collective dose t o the world population calculated from ingestion o fseafood is also shown versus time.

H-3

KARA SEABARENTS SEACHU CKCH SEAGREENLAND SEANORTHSEA

0 50 100 150 200YEARS

F ig u r e B - l . Unfiltered seawater concentrations ( B q m '3 ) in selected surfacewaters calculated from a single 1 TBq discharge o f 3 H in th e Novaya Zemlya fjordat year zero

zinozooaeuiI

1E-021E-031E-041E-051E-061E-071E-081E-091E-101F.11

r v > VI'S: v \1 . * V ^ ^ .J ^ - ^ S .1 - ^ i ^* * iw

28 R is - R - 8 4 1 ( E N )
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H-3

SSsiiE-10E-11E-12E-13E-14E-15E-16E-17

KARASEABARBE S SEACHUCKCHSEAGREENLAND SEANORTHSEA

50 100YEARS

150 200

Figure B-2. Surface sediment concentrations (Bq kg'1 dw) in selected surfacewaters calculated from a single 1 TBq discharge of 3H in the Novaya Zemlya fjordat year zero.

C "^F-flfl .KIII% 4E-08S 4 t U 0Z1 . 3E-08ill1 5F.OA .O ic .na .-1_JOO OE+OOJ

C

H-3

1 50 100 150YEARS

200

Figure B-3. Collective dose to the world population calculated from a single 1TBq discharge of 3H in the Novaya Zemlya fjord at year zero .

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Co-60

-KARASEABARB ES SEACHUCKCHSEAGREENLANDSEAN0R1HSEA

100YEAR

Figure B-4. Unfiltered seawater concentrations (Bq m"3) in selected surfacewaters calculated from a single 1 TBq discharge of *Co in the Novaya Zemlyafjord at year zero.

Co-60

IsiftuiUi

1E-0116-021E-031E-041E-051E-061E-071E-081E-091E-101E-11

_ '^"^' " * " - .

- - -, ' /hI

^ ^ ^^

,

. .

' * ^

" " " N ^ ^

^ > ^ V^ " -> ! ,' ' S f t -

1

" V ^ ^^ ^ "" . ,

w* ! . * . _^

^ s ^ ^ ~ -3=*-"""o*.

* w ^

KARA SEABARENTS SEACHUCKCHSEAGREENLAND SEANORTHSEA

20 40 60 80 100YEAR

Figure B-5. Surface sediment concentrations (Bq kg'1 dw) in selected surfacewaters calculated from a single 1 TBq discharge of wCo in the Novaya Zemlyafjord at year zero.

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Fig ure B -6 . Collective dose to the world population calculated from a single 1TBq discharge of "C o in the Nova ya Zemlya fjord at year zero.

Ni-63

-KARA SEABARENTS SEACHUCKCHSEAGREENLAND SEANORTHSEA

1000

Figu re B-7. Unfiltered seawater concentrations (Bq m'3) in selected surfacewaters calculated from a single 1 TBq discharge of Ni in the Novaya Zemlyafjord at year zero .

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Ni-63

KARASEABARBfTSSEACHUCKCHSBAGREBLAND SEANORTH SEA

1000YEAR

Figure B-8. Surface sediment concentrations (Bq kg'1 dw) in selected surfacewaters calculated from a single I TBq discharge of *3Ni in the Novaya Zemlyafjord at year zero.

Ni-63

400 600YEAR

800 1000

Figure B-9. Collective dose to the world population calculated from a single 1TBq discharge of 63Ni in the Novaya Zemlya fjord at year zero .

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Sr-90

| !

1E-011E-021E-031E-04IE-OS1E-061E-071E-081E-09

^ = * i -.-~^f-,^ -

50 100 i150YEAR

KARASEABA RefTS SEACHUCKCHSEAGREENLAND SEANORTH SEA

200 250 300

Figure B-10. Unfiltered seawater concentrations (Bq m"3) in selected surfacewaters calculated from a single 1 TBq discharge of ""Sr in the Novaya Zemlya fjordat year zero.

Sr-90

ZUlI1E-021E-031E-041E-051E-061E-071E-081E-091E-10

^ r * ^ ^-KARA SEABARENTS SEACHUCKCHSEAGREENLAND SEANORTH SEA

50 100 150YEAR

200 250 300

Figure B - l l . Surface sediment concentrations (Bq kg"1 dw) in selected surfacewaters calculated from a single 1 TBq discharge of ^Sr in the Novaya Zemlya fjordat year zero.

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Figure B-12. Collective dose to the world population calculated from a single 1TBq discharge of '"Sr in the Novaya Zemlya fjord at year zero.

1-129

KARA SEABARENTS SEACHUCKCH SEAGREENLAND SEANORTH SEA

1000

Figure B-13. Unfiltered seawater concentrations (Bq m'3) in selected surfacewaters calculated from a single 1 TBq discharge of l29 I in the Novaya Zemlya fjordat year zero.

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1-129

KARASEABARENTS SEACHUCKCHISEAGREENLAND SEANORTH SEA

1000YEAR

Figure B-14. Surface sediment concentrations (Bq kg'1 dw) in selected surfacewa ters calculated from a single 1 TBq discharge of I29I in the Novaya Zemlya fjordat year zero.

Figure B-15. Collective dose to the world population calculated from a single 1TBq discharge of l29I in the Novaya Zemlya fjord at year zero.

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Cs-137

-KARASEA "IBAR BES SEACHUCKCHSEAGREENLAND SEANORTHSEA

300

Figure B-16. Unfiltered seawater concentrations (Bq m ) in selected surface137/waters calculated from a single 1 TBq discharge of Cs in the Novaya Zemlyafjord at year zero.

Cs-137

Iifo1U lm

ff

1E-021E-031E-041E-0S1E-061E-07IE-OS1E-09

r~ -


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Figure B-18 . Collective dose to the world population calculated from a single 1137,TBq discharge of Cs in the Novaya Zemlya fjord at year zero.

Pu-239iHI

uUIIE-01

-KARA SEABARENTS SEACHUCKCHSEAGREENLAND SEANORTH SEA

1000

Figure B-19. Unfiltered seawater concentrations (Bq m ) in selected surfacewaters calculated from a single 1 TBq discharge of U9 Pu in the Novaya Zemlyafjord at year zero.

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Pv-239

5 9 i&osJ * 1&07

1&081&09

KARA SEk B A N t W 5 S e w

CHUCKCHS6%G R S t A t O S E ANORTH S6fc

200 400 600VE*R

800 1000

Fig ure B-20. Surface sediment concentrations (Bq kg'1 dw) in selected surfacewaters calculated from a single 1 TBq discharge of 239Pu in the Novaya Zemlyafjord at year zero.

Figure B -21. Collective dose to the world population calculated from a single 1TBq discharge of M9Pu in the Novaya Zemlya fjord at year zero

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A I R - M I

KARASEAe A R B f T S S E *CHUOQOtSEAGREENLAND SEANORTH SB t

1000

Figur* B-22 . Unfihe red seawater concentrations (B q m'3) in sdected surfacewaters calculated from a single 1 TBq discharge of

2 4 lAm in the Novaya Zendyafjord at year zero.

Am-241

iIi

1&041B051&061E071E481&091B-1016-11

VXi ' ^ ^ ^ ^

^ " ^ -

i i l

^r- iV~ ~ "

. r r :* w _ .

-KARA SEABARENTS SEACHUCKCHSEAGREENLAND SEANORTH SEA

200 400 600YEAR

800 1000

Figure B-23. Surface sediment concentrations (Bq kg'1 dw) in selected surfacewaters calculated from a single 1 TBq discharge of 2 4 iAm in the Novaya Zemlyafjord at year zero.

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Am-2412 E - 0 3 , 1

II Ig 2E-03 f 1E-03 = =* S ^s* ^ ^^ 5E-04 V ^ -O /0E*OO J 1 1 1 1O 200 400 600 800 1000

YBVR

Figure B -24. Collective dose to the world population calculated from a single 1TBq discharge of 24 lAm in the Novaya Zemlya fjord a t year zero.

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1 0. APPENDIX C, Results of scenario releasesThis appendix contains graphical presentations of selected results of the calculations ofScenario 1 (worst case) releases into the Arctic Seas. The results of unfiltered seawa terconcentrations, surface sediment concentrations and integrated collective doses areshown versus time. The graphs show the calculated seawater concentrations for theWestern Kara Sea (b ox 1), the Southern Barents Sea (box 2 7), the Chuckchi Sea (box13), the Greenland Sea (bo x 29 ) and the Central North Sea (box 107). The sedimentconcentrations are from the corresponding sediment boxes no. 2, 2 8, 15, 31 and 108.Furthermore, the co llective dose t o the world population calculated from ingestion o fseafood is also shown versus time.

H-3

KARA SEABARENTS SEACHUCKCHSEAGREENLAND SEANORTH SEA

YEAR

Fig ur e C -l . Unfiltered seawater concentrations o f 3H (Bq m'3) in surface watersfrom selected regions calculated as a functior. of time for release Scenario 1

1E011E+O01E-011E-02 -1E-031E-041E-051E-061E-071E-08

7 ^ " v _l ^~ N>Vv-/ 7 ~ ~ C \ ^ > w

#,t1950 2000 2050 211

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io So So sz SlS5Ul

1E-041E-051E-061E-071E-081E-091E-101E-111E-121950

H-3

-KARASEABARENTS SEACHUCKCHSEAGREENLAND SEANOR7HSEA

2000 2050 2100YEAR

Figure C-2. Surface sediment concentrations of 3H (Bq kg"1 dw) from selectedregions calculated as a function of time for release Scenario 1.

Figure C-3. Collective dose to the world population from 3H calculated forrelease Scenario 1.

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ti lo Si

1E*011E+001E-011E-021E-031E-041E-051E-061E-071E-08

Co-60

ILrv^A ' , * > -

- . j '"."S. ^J/^ .- ' ">-wfe' ' " ^ V[ ^i-J i i i )

KARASEABARENTS SEACHUCKCHSEAGREENLAND SEANORTH SEA

1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060YE A R

Figure C-4. Unfiltered seawater concentrations of *Co (Bq m"3) in surface w atersfrom selected regions calculated as a function of time for release Scenario 1.

Co-60

o S

5

Et01-KARASEABARENTS SEACHUCKCHSEAGREENLANDSEANORTH SEA

1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060YEAR

Figure C-5. Surface sediment concentrations of MCo (Bq kg'1 dw) from selectedreg ions calculated as a function of time for release Scenario 1.

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Ul1.0E*00

8.0E-01

S 6.0E-01

S i 4.0&01

o 2.0E-01

OOE+00

Co-60

- t -1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060

YEAR

Figure C-6. Collective dose to the world population from MCo calculated forrelease Scenario 1.

Iz< _

sif10

1E-011E-021E-031E-041E-051E-061E-071E-08

Ni-63

^" ^ I

/ - ^ >s

r - ~ s * * . ^i - " ^t

i 1 1 1 T ^

-KARA SEABARBE S SEACHUCKCHSEAGREENLAND SE ANORTHSEA

1900 2100 2300 2500YEAR

Figure C-7. Unfiltered seawater concentrations of 63Ni ( B q n r ) in surface watersfrom selected regions calculated as a function of time for release Scenario 1

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Ni-63

i11E+011 B 0 01E-011E-021E-031E-041E-051E-061E-07

f --^-./ + 1 - ~ _1' ^ U W i W * ./11 1 H -

" " v . ^ \* W J l e ^ 1 ' ^ v"****ft*J

1 1

KARASEABARENTS SEACHUCKCHSEAGREENLAND S EANORTHSEA

1900 2100 2300 2500YEAR

2700 2900

Figure C-8. Surface sediment concentrations of 63Ni (Bq kg"1 dw) from selectedregions calculated as a function of time for release Scenario 1.

ui5.0E-03

4.0E-039 3.0E-03

1 2.0E-038 1.0E-03

O.OE+00 \1900

Ni-63

2700 2900

Figure C-9. Collective dose to the world population from 63Ni calculated forrelease Scenario 1.

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iU l" IHl

Sr-901E*02IE*01t&OOIE-011E-021E-031E-041E-05

- ^ ^ ^ ^ V ^ - - , ' e i i 1 i

-KARASEABARENTS SEACHUCKCHSEAGREBANDSEANORTHSEA

1960 2000 2060 2100 2150 2200YEAR

Figure C-10. Unfiltered seawater concentrations of w Sr (Bq m"3) in surfacewaters from selected regions calculated as a function of time for release Scenario1.

Sr-90


1960 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200YEAR

Figure C- ll . Surface sediment concentrations of ""Sr (Bq kg'1 dw) from selectedregions calculated as a function of time for release Scenario 1

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5.0E-01

m 4.0E-018u ? 3.0E-01u S 2.0E-01i O 10E-01

OOEtOO1960

Sr-90

2150 2200

Figure C-12. Collective dose to the world population from "Sr calculated forrelease Scenario 1.

uiozOoKIU\n

1E-06

1E-07

1E-08

1E-09

1E-10

1-129

^

1900 2100 i i2300 2500

YEAR


2700 2900

r^igure C-13. Unfiltered seawater concentrations of l29I (Bq m"3) in surface w atersfrom selected regions calculated as a function of time for release Scenario 1.

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1-129

i looI1E-091E-101E-111E-121E-131E-141E-15

fc- t - -t -

- K A R A S E ABARENTS SEACHUCKCHSEAG R E N L A N D S EAN0RTHSEA

1900 2100 2300 2500YEAR

2700 2900

Figure C-14. Surface sediment concentrations of 129I (Bq kg'1 dw) from selectedregions calculated as a function of time for release Scenario 1.

in1.0E-058.0E-06

? 6.0E-06

8 I 4.0E-06S 2.0E-06O.OE-KJO

1900

-129

2100 2900

Figure C- 15 . Collective dose to the world population from ,2 9I calculated forrelease Scenario 1.

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Cs-137i3 1

E*02E+01E+00E-01E-02E-03E-04

1950

/r \ ^ \^I -1 "~~^'m^----^ ...

-KARASEABARENTS SEACHUCKCHSEAGREENLAND SEANORTHSEA

2O00 2060 2100 2150 2200YEAR

Figure C-16. Unfiltered seawater concentrations of ,37Cs (Bq m"3) in surfacewaters from selected regions calculated as a function of time for release Scenario1.

Cs-137


1950 2000 2050 2100YEAR

2150 2200

Figure C-17. Surface sediment concentrations of13 Cs (Bq kg'1 dw) from selectedregions calculated as a function of time for release Scenario 1.

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Il l1.0EKI1

80E+009 6.0&00

w 1 4.0EKX)Oo 2.0E+00

OOEtOO1960

Cs-137

2150 2200

137/Figure C-18. Collective dose to the world population from Cs calculated forrelease Scenario 1.

in

1E-03

1E-04

1E-05a. = HIfc 1E-06

1E-07

Pu-239

1 ^.-i-r

-KARA SEABARENTS SEACHUCKCHSEAGREENLAND SEAN O R T H S B A

1900 2100 2300 2500YEAR

2700 2900

Figure C-19. Unfiltered seawater concentrations of 239Pu (Bq m"3) in surfacewaters from selected regions calculated as a function of time for release Scenario1.

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Pu-239

28I

1E-011E-021E-031E-041E-051E-061E-07

f3 T-KARASEABARENTS SEACHUCKCHSEAGREENLAND SE ANORTHSEA

1900 2100 2300 2500YEAR

2700 2900

Figure C-20. Surface sediment concentrations of M9Pu (Bq kg'1 dw) from selectedregions calculated as a function o f time for release Scenario 1.

Figure C-21. Collective dose to the world population from 239Pu calculated forrelease Scenario 1.

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Am-241

is1E-031E-041E-051E-061E-071E-0B1E-09

_ _

/

? " ' rf 1 I 1 I

. . KARA iFABARENTS SEACHUCXCHSEA

NORTH SEA

1900 2100 2300 2500YEAR

2700 2900

Figure C-22 . Unaltered seawater concentrations of 241Am (Bq m'3) in surfacewaters from selected regions calculated as a function of time for release Scenario1.

8I-UI So SIu25w1E-011E-021E-031E-041E-051E-061E-07

Am-241

-KARASEABARBES SEACHJCKCHISEAGREENLAND SEANORTHSEA

1900 2100 2300 2500 2700 2900YEAR

2 4 1 ,Figure C-23 . Surface sediment concentrations of "'Am (Bq kg dw) fromselected regions calculated as a function of time for release Scenario 1

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Ara-241

1.QC4B&0E-03

Sg &OB43S I 4.0&03O 20EO3

ao&oo1900 2100 2900VEMt

Figure C -24 . Collective dose to the world population from 24 iAm calculated forrelease Scenario 1.

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Mi ObjectiveTh e objective of Ris's research is to provide indu stry an dsociety with new potential in three ma in areas: Energy technology and energy planning Environmental aspects of energy, industrial and plant production Materials un d measuring techniques for industryAs a special obligation Ris maintain s and exte nds theknowledge required to advise the authorities on nuc lear matters.

Research ProfileRis's research is long-term and kn owled ge-orien ted anddirected toward areas where there are recognised nee ds fornew solutions in D anish society. Th e programme areas are:

Combustion and gasificationWind energyEnergy technologies for the futureEnergy planningEnvironmental aspects of energy and industrial productionEnvironmental aspects of plant productionNuclear safety an d radiation protectionMaterials with new physical and chemical propertiesStructural materialsOptical measurement techniques an d information processing

Ris-R-841(EN)ISBN 87-550-2109-3ISSN 0106-2840Available on request from:Information ServiceDepartmentEO. Box 49, DK-4000 R oskilde, DenmarkPhone +45 46 77 46 77, ext. 4004/4005

Transfer of Know ledgeThe results of Ris's research are transferred to industryand authorities through: Research co-operation Co-operation in R&D consortia R& D clubs and exchange of researchen Centre for Advanced Technology Patenting an d licencing activitiesTo the scientific world throu gh: Publication activities Co-operation in national an d international networks PhD- and Post Doc. education

Key F iguresRis has a staff of just over 900, of which m ore than 30 0 arescientists and 80 are PhD and Post Doc . students. R is's

a preliminary assessment of potential doses to man from radioactive waste dumped in the arctic sea -...

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