a probabilistic approach to risk assessment of managed...
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A Probabilistic Approach to Risk A Probabilistic Approach to Risk Assessment of Managed Pressure Drilling Assessment of Managed Pressure Drilling
in the Gulf of Mexicoin the Gulf of Mexico
Oliver Coker Ken Malloy
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Managed Pressure DrillingManaged Pressure Drilling
•• Not a new conceptNot a new concept–– Slight departure from what we have historically been Slight departure from what we have historically been
taught in well control school.taught in well control school.
•• Not focused on the BHPNot focused on the BHP–– Entire pressure profile in the open section of the hole Entire pressure profile in the open section of the hole
which is not static but changes as drilling progresseswhich is not static but changes as drilling progresses
•• Not intended to maintain an overbalance over all Not intended to maintain an overbalance over all sections, but to minimize departures outside the sections, but to minimize departures outside the “pressure environment window”.“pressure environment window”.–– Pore pressure or wellbore stability pressure on the low sidePore pressure or wellbore stability pressure on the low side–– Frac or leakoff on the high side.Frac or leakoff on the high side.
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Managed Pressure DrillingManaged Pressure Drilling
•• Maintaining in real time mud density, Maintaining in real time mud density, equivalent circulating density and casing equivalent circulating density and casing back pressure to control pressure back pressure to control pressure throughout the exposed wellbore in a throughout the exposed wellbore in a closed system.closed system.
MPD = MW + ECD + CP
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SpindletopSpindletop
•• Technology of its DayTechnology of its Day–– Rotary DrillingRotary Drilling–– Drilling MudDrilling Mud
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Closed Pressurized Mud SystemClosed Pressurized Mud System
•• Surface pressure control headSurface pressure control head•• RealReal--time bottom hole pressuretime bottom hole pressure•• Computer controlled circulating systemComputer controlled circulating system•• Continuous circulation with jointed pipeContinuous circulation with jointed pipe
BLOWOUTPREVENTOR
PRESSURECONTROL
HEAD PUMP
CHOKE
COMPUTERCONTROL
BHP @ bit
DRILL FLUID
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Spindletop – A Step Change
The water which was flushed through the rotary dill pipe was failing to bring up the loose sands. Curt Hamill recognized that he had to increase the viscosity and density of the circulating fluid—but how? Hamill invented the world’s first drilling mud by driving some cattle through a shallow pond. The cattle stirred up the water enough to generate a thick mud. When the muddy water was poured down the Spindletop well bore, the hole was stabilized and the sands flushed out.
2003 EARTH SCIENTIST Magazine
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MPD PrizesMPD Prizes••RealReal--time well controltime well control
••Reduce lost circulation and ballooningReduce lost circulation and ballooning
••Reduce risk of stuck pipeReduce risk of stuck pipe
••Drill longer ERD wells with constant BHPDrill longer ERD wells with constant BHP
••Higher ROP in deep gas wellsHigher ROP in deep gas wells
••Control shallow gas and water flowsControl shallow gas and water flows
••Safer drilling environmentSafer drilling environment
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MPD MPD –– Size of the Prize?Size of the Prize?$10 million?$10 million?$100 $100 millionmillion??$1 billion?$1 billion?
The prize is big as you make it.
MPD is step-change technology.
MPD = MW + ECD + CP
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What is Risk?What is Risk?• Risk is the known chance that an event will occur.
– Differentially Stuck while Drilling Well in GOM
• Risk = Probability x Severity
What is Uncertainty?• Uncertainty is the unknown chance that an event will occur.
– Don’t Know Where You Will Be Differentially Stuck while Drilling Well in GOM
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Risk AssessmentRisk Assessment•• Risk IdentificatiRisk Identificationon•• Risk AnalysisRisk Analysis
–– QualitativeQualitative–– QuantitativeQuantitative
Notices and meeting minutes for IADC Committees.Government Affairs; Health, Safety & Environment; Training; Maintenance; Jackup Rig; Underbalanced Operations; Well Control; Information Technology Solutions; Contracts; Rig Moving
Also: IADC Offshore Operating Division
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Risk AnalysisRisk Analysis ProcessProcess•• Scoring ModelsScoring Models
–– SimpleSimple–– Commensurate to the nature of expert opinion elicitationCommensurate to the nature of expert opinion elicitation
•• IADC Underbalanced Operations CommitteeIADC Underbalanced Operations Committee–– 2004 CHAIRMAN2004 CHAIRMAN
Chairman: Chairman: Mike DuBose, Rowan Drilling (UK) LTDMike DuBose, Rowan Drilling (UK) LTDEE--mail Address: mail Address: ubochairmanubochairman@@iadciadc.org.org
–– 2004 VICE CHAIRMAN 2004 VICE CHAIRMAN !! Vice Chairman: Vice Chairman: Fred Curtis, HalliburtonFred Curtis, Halliburton
–––– 2004 SUBCOMMITTEE CHAIRMEN2004 SUBCOMMITTEE CHAIRMEN
!! HSE & Training Subcommittee: HSE & Training Subcommittee: Adrian Adrian HoulbrookHoulbrook, Weatherford Int’l , Weatherford Int’l !! Standards & Nomenclature Subcommittee:Standards & Nomenclature Subcommittee: Sid Ruiz, MI Drilling Fluids Sid Ruiz, MI Drilling Fluids !! API Equipment for UBO and MPD Workgroup:API Equipment for UBO and MPD Workgroup: John John RamalhoRamalho, Shell , Shell !! NRV Task Group:NRV Task Group: Brian Grayson, Weatherford Int'l Brian Grayson, Weatherford Int'l !! Fluids Subcommittee:Fluids Subcommittee: Mike Buchanan, Weatherford Int'l Mike Buchanan, Weatherford Int'l !! Honorary ChairpersonHonorary Chairperson:: RosalvinaRosalvina GuimeransGuimerans!! Managed Pressure Drilling (MPD) Subcommittee:Managed Pressure Drilling (MPD) Subcommittee: Douglas Nunn, Douglas Nunn, GlobalSantaFeGlobalSantaFe!! Daily Report Subcommittee:Daily Report Subcommittee: Inactive Inactive
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Risk Analysis Risk Analysis ProcessProcess
•• Scoring Models:Scoring Models:–– Qualitative scale of 1Qualitative scale of 1--1010 for probability and for probability and
impact estimationsimpact estimations–– Impact of a risk has been considered in 3 Impact of a risk has been considered in 3
dimensions:dimensions:•• Impact on Impact on safetysafety•• Impact on cost Impact on cost •• Impact on Impact on drilling efficiencydrilling efficiency
–– Overall impact is calculated by the weighted Overall impact is calculated by the weighted average of these three scores.average of these three scores.
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Risk Assessment Process Element
Scoping and Screening AnalysisDefine the physical and analytical
boundaries of the assessment
Event IdentificationIdentify the events that could cause pipeline failures and lead to adverse
consequences
Frequency AnalysisEstimate how often the events might occur
Consequence AnalysisEstimate the severity of the adverse impacts should the events occur
Risk AssessmentEstimate the frequency and consequences
of potential incidents
Risk Control & Decision SupportSelect activities to reduce risk or produce equal or greater levels of safety
more efficiently
Performance Monitoring & FeedbackDetermine if the risk control decisions produce the anticipated outcomes
Risk EstimationCombine frequency and consequence estimates into relative risk values
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FMEA Criticality Analysis Index Codes
•• Failure Mode and Effect AnalysisFailure Mode and Effect Analysis–– SeveritySeverity–– OccurrenceOccurrence–– DetectionDetection
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Severity IndexSeverity Index
1No discernible effect on product or subsequent processes. No
2Customer more likely will not notice the failure. Very slight effect on product / process performance. Very slight
3Customer slightly annoyed. Slight effect on product or service performance. Slight
4Customer experiences minor nuisance. Minor effect on product orservice performance. Fault does not require attention. Minor
5Customer experiences some dissatisfaction. Moderate effect on product or service performance.Moderate
6Customer experiences discomfort. Product/process performance degraded, but operable and safe.Significant
7Customer dissatisfied. Major effect on service; rework on service
necessary. Product/service performance severely affected but functionable and safe.
Major
8Customer very dissatisfied. Extreme effect on process/service; equipment damaged. Product/service incomplete but safe. Extreme
9
Potential hazardous effect. Able to stop product/service without mishap. Safety related. Time-dependent failure. Disruption to subsequent process operations. Compliance with government regulation is in jeopardy.
Serious
10Hazardous effect. Safety related. Sudden failure. Noncompliance with government regulations. Hazardous
RankingCriteriaSeverity
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Occurrence IndexOccurrence Index
1Failure unlikely. History shows no failures. Unlikely
2Rare number of failures likely. Rare
3Very few failures likely. Very slight
4Few failures likely. Slight
5Occasional number of failures likely. Occasional
6Moderate number of failures likely.Medium
7Frequent high number of failures likely. Moderately High
8High number of failures likely. High
9Very high number of failures likely. Very High
10Failure almost certain. Almost Certain
RankingCriteria Occurrence
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Detection IndexDetection Index
1Current controls certain to detect.Certain
2Current controls will almost always will detect failure.Very High
3High likelihood current controls will detect failure. High
4Moderately high likelihood current controls will detect the failure. Moderately High
5Medium likelihood current controls will detect failure. Moderate
6Low likelihood current controls will detect failure. Low
7Very low likelihood current controls will detect failure. Very Low
8Remote likelihood current controls will detect failure. Remote
9Very remote likelihood current controls will detect failure. Very Remote
10Absolute certainty of non-detection.Almost Impossible
RankingCriteriaDetection
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DeliverablesDeliverables
•• Extensive Report identifying and grading the Extensive Report identifying and grading the risks involved between drilling in a conventional, risks involved between drilling in a conventional, overbalanced, openoverbalanced, open--system as we do now system as we do now compared to drilling in a balanced, closedcompared to drilling in a balanced, closed--system, managed pressure environment. system, managed pressure environment. –– Shared among the participants Shared among the participants –– Serve as a basis to modify some of the regulatory Serve as a basis to modify some of the regulatory
limits placed upon drilling operations in the Gulf of limits placed upon drilling operations in the Gulf of Mexico.Mexico.
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Probability Distribution FunctionProbability Distribution Function
Normal Distribution
00.00005
0.00010.00015
0.00020.00025
0.00030.00035
0.00040.00045
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000
Value
Pro
babi
lity
Dis
trib
utio
n Fu
nctio
n
Normal Distribution
00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9
1
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000
Value
Cum
ulat
ive
Dis
tribu
tive
Func
tion
Cumulative Distribution FunctionCumulative Distribution Function
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UpsideUpside
•• Anticipated long term economic benefitsAnticipated long term economic benefits–– Cost savings realized from less nonCost savings realized from less non--productive productive
trouble time associated with drilling trouble time associated with drilling operationsoperations
–– Less damage to depleted or otherwise Less damage to depleted or otherwise sensitive reservoirs, a potential reversal of sensitive reservoirs, a potential reversal of recent trends to downgrade evaluation of recent trends to downgrade evaluation of reserves. reserves.
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MANDATE :
To seek a fair, balanced and managed outcome by assessing an even handed comparison of risk between conventional drilling and managed pressure drilling.
VISION :
With open-minded regulatory agencies support develop an integrated, knowledgeable, open-minded, and proactive team to assist the industry in determining a future path forward.
A Probabilistic Approach to Risk A Probabilistic Approach to Risk Assessment of Managed Pressure Drilling Assessment of Managed Pressure Drilling
in the Gulf of Mexicoin the Gulf of Mexico
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A Probabilistic Approach to Risk A Probabilistic Approach to Risk Assessment of Managed Pressure Drilling Assessment of Managed Pressure Drilling
in the Gulf of Mexicoin the Gulf of Mexico
Oliver Coker Ken Malloy