a review of steel production and … · consumption in south american countries other than brazil...
TRANSCRIPT
A REVIEW OF STEEL
PRODUCTION AND
CONSUMPTION IN SOUTH
AMERICAN COUNTRIES
OTHER THAN BRAZIL
Jorge Madias
6th Annual Americas Iron Ore Conference, November 2013, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Introduction
Discussion country by country
Conclusions
Agenda 2
metallon 3
Consulting & training company
Based in San Nicolas, Argentina
Serving the steel industry and its chain value in Latin America
Technical courses (open, in company, self learning)
Technical assistance (ironmaking, steelmaking, rolling)
Library services
Met lab services
www.metallon.com.ar
Introduction 4
Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay, Venezuela
Hot metal production, 2012: 3,556,000 t
DRI/HBI production, 2012: 6,176,000 t
Production crude steel, 2012: 11,855,000 t
Production rolled products, 2012: 11,730,000 t
Imports rolled products 2012: 7,908,500 t
Exports rolled products 2012: 1,471,600 t
Apparent consumption 2012: 18,167,400 t
Introduction 5
Apparent consumption per capita 2012
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Chile Argentina Venezuela Ecuador Peru Colombia Uruguay Paraguay
Kg/inhabitant
Introduction 6
Discussion country by country
Companies - Ownership
Ironmaking units, iron ore suppliers
Production of rolled steel (flat and long products)
Apparent consumption
Imports and exports
Investments
Consequences on iron ore demand
Argentina: Market protection 7
SIDERAR (Ternium – Techint Group) Flat products
Acindar (ArcelorMittal Group) Long products
AcerBrag (Votorantim Group) Long products
SIPAR (Gerdau Group) Long products
Aceros Zapla (Taselli Group) Long products
SIDERCA (Tenaris – Techint Group) Seamless pipes
Small producers of rebar and ingots for forging
Argentina: Market protection 8
Ironmaking units
SIDERAR: Blast furnace 1 & 2
ACINDAR: Midrex shaft furnace
SIDERCA: Midrex shaft furnace
Iron ore supply
Brazilian pellets (Minas Gerais & Carajas)
Brazilian lumps (Corumba)
Argentina: Market protection 9
Rolled products (x 1000 t)
Exports are somewhat larger than imports
Production Imports Exports Apparent
consumption
2008 5,077 866 1,171 4,772
2009 3,626 557 994 3,189
2010 4,913 787 1,095 4,605
2011 5,376.7 983.3 970.5 5,380.5
2012 4,592 904.8 1,001.3 4,855.5
2013 7 months 2,891 423.4 434.8 2,879.6
Argentina: Market protection 10
Rolled long products
More imports than exports
Imports: SBQ, heavy shapes
Exports: bar, wire rod
Rolled flat products
More exports than imports just in crisis times
Imports: heavy plate, exposed car body cold rolled, stainless and other special steel strip
Exports: hot and cold rolled carbon steel strip
Seamless pipes
Mostly exported
Argentina: Market protection 11
Steel production oriented to the domestic market, except for seamless pipes
Current investments (main driver: substitution of imports)
SIDERAR
RH for ultra low carbon and higher API X grades (in start up)
Second slab caster (in start-up)
Laminados Industriales – Beltrame Group
Heavy plate rolling mill (in start-up)
Announced
Acindar, new rolling mill for rebar, M USD 100
Gerdau, new meltshop (integration of a re-roller)
Venezuela: Lagging behind 12
SIDOR (State owned) – Flat & long products
CSN (State owned, former SIDETUR) – Long
products
SIZUCA (Gerdau Group) – Long products
Production Imports Exports Apparent
consumption
2008 3,676 454 1,062 3,068
2009 3,094 539 1,403 2,230
2010 1,559 423 187 1,795
2011 2,086 570 673.4
2012 2,065 1,010.9 163.1 3,239
2013 7 months 1,366 482.9 91.0 1,757.9
Venezuela: Lagging behind 13
Ironmaking units
SIDOR (Midrex & HyL III) ; own pelletizing plant
HBI modules under state administration
Iron ore supply
Pellet feed & pellets from Ferrominera del Orinoco
(state owned)
Venezuela: Lagging behind 14
Rolled products (flat, long, pipes)
Decline after nationalization
Switch to long products
Flat Long Pipes
2008 2,252 1,476 45
2009 1,655 1,436 4
2010 721 838 -
2011 866.1 1,220.3
2012 957 1,108 -
2013 7 months 683 682 -
Chile: No more flat products 15
CAP Acero - long products (CAP Group)
Gerdau - long products
Production Imports Exports Apparent
consumption
2008 1,517 1,248 49 2,716
2009 1,279 558 89 1,748
2010 677 1,864 95 2,446
2011 1,209.1 88.2
2012 1,598 1,556.9 55.3 3,210.2
2013 7 months 787 838.5 17.7 1,607.8
Chile: No more flat products 16
Ironmaking units
CAP Acero (one blast furnace to be shut down)
Blast furnace 1
Blast furnace 2
Iron ore supply
Pellets from CAP Mining
Chile: No more flat products 17
Local steelmakers are far of supplying the domestic
market with their own production
CAP Acero leaving flat products (shutdown of slab
caster, hot rolling mill and downstream facilities)
Investment
CAP Acero: billet caster, long products rolling mill
Consequences for iron ore demand
Fall due to imminent shut down of one blast furnace
Colombia: Low cost imports 18
ACESCO (Escobar family) – Flats, departing form imported slabs
Gerdau – Long products
Acerías Paz del Río (Votorantim) – Long products
SIDENAL – Long products (merger with HORNASA)
Ternium Colombia (former ACASA) – Long products
SIDOC (Armitage family) – Long products
Andean Iron Corp. - Pig iron (Oceanside Capital, Canada; Pacific Rubiales Energy, Venezuela)
Colombia: Low cost imports 19
Ironmaking units
Acerias Paz del Rio
Mini Blast Furnace
Andean Iron Corp. (Zipaquira)
Mini Blast Furnace 1 in start up
Mini Blast Furnace 2 under construction
Iron ore supply
Acerias Paz del Rio: Minas Paz del Rio (lumps)
Andean Iron Corp.: own mine
Colombia: Low cost imports 20
Production Imports Exports Apparent
consumption
2008 1,435 1,922 158 3,199
2009 1,464 1,280 147 2,597
2010 1,641 1,762 150 3,253
2011 1,779.5 1,981.2 124.5 3,636.2
2012 1,725 1,894.1 101.9 3,721
2013 738 1,095.2 73.5 1,759.7
Colombia: Low cost imports 21
Despite of mergers and acquisitions, still there is a low grade of concentration of the offer, in long products
More imports than production
Industry working at 60% capacity
Heavy losses for Paz del Rio and Gerdau
Investments
CIPROCOLSA – Pig iron project (?)
Ternium Colombia M USD 25
Paz del Rio: decline to invest due to fierce competition of wire rod imports
Peru: Jumping forward? 22
Corporación Aceros Arequipa, Cilloniz family and others, long products
Siderperú, Gerdau Group, long products
Ironmaking units
Two Coal-based DRI rotary kilns, Aceros Arequipa
Mini Blast Furnace in Siderperu: revamped but still idle
Iron ore supply
Shougang Hierroperu, pellets
Aceros Arequipa mines, lumps
Peru: Jumping forward? 23
Growing domestic demand, satisfied with increased
imports, for both flat and long products
Production Imports Exports Apparent
consumption
2008 926 1,289 66 2,149
2009 871 781 111 1,541
2010 1,035 1,476 130 2,381
2011 913.1 1,253.5 124.5 2,022.9
2012 1,211 1,573.1 143.7 2,927.8
2013 7 months 806 981.3 69.6 1,717.7
Peru: Jumping forward? 24
Recent investments
New rolling mill started-up in Corporacion Aceros Arequipa
Upstream investment in iron ore mining and coal mining by Aceros Arequipa
CDII Minerals – Blast furnace project in Ilo
Impact on iron ore supply
Small impact expected
A process for partial replacement of Shougang pellets by own lumps is under way
Ecuador: No global players 25
ANDEC – Holding DIME (state owned, army
officers) – Long products
ADELCA – Avellan family – Long products
NOVACERO – Villacres family – Long products
TALME – Long products (with imported billets)
100% scrap based – No ironmaking facilities
Ecuador: No global players 26
Only long products are produced; no exports
Domestic demand unsatisfied
Recent investments:
Consteel EAF at ANDEC and NOVACERO
3rd continuous casting strand at ANDEC
Consteel EAF at NOVACERO Production Imports Exports App. Consum.
2008 560 762 - 1,322
2009 442 1,127 - 1,569
2010 500 765 7 1,258
2011 523 974.5 14.7 1,482.8
2012 556 953.9 5.4 1,515.3
2013 7 months 432 702.7 6.9 1,127.8
Smaller markets 27
Paraguay:
ACEPAR (Taselli Group) – Long products
2012: 22 Kt
2013: 2 charcoal based blast furnaces idled
Uruguay:
LAISA (Gerdau Group) – Long products
2012: Prod. 74 Kt; Imp. 141 Kt; Exp. 1 Kt
Bolivia
No local production
No import figures published
LAMINOR starting up in Oruro (Las Lomas Group)
Conclusions 28
Two different worlds
Pacific countries No protection for the industry
Unrestricted imports
Industry below capacity while importing more than is produced locally
Chile, Peru: Iron ore exported to China, then steel imported from China
Argentina Strong protection of the industry
Pressure for substitution of imports
Venezuela Far from realizing its potential as a steelmaking country
Conclusions 29
Special features
State owned companies in Venezuela and Ecuador
Important role of local investors
Domestic iron ore demand 2/3 DR, 1/3 BF
Domestic production 2/3 EAF, 1/3 BOF
Domestic market driven companies
In most countries local production is not enough for the demand
No large expansion projects under way
Medium range: slight increase in iron ore consumption is expected