a review of the major shipping markets & outlook for the ...€¦ · 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40...

Adrian Economakis COO [email protected]

A Review of the Major Shipping Markets & Outlook for the Future

WHO WE ARE

WHAT WE DO

Value Trade Map Search

OUR SERVICES

WHERE WE ARE

ESTABLISHED 2010

4 OFFICES Worldwide

PEOPLE 100+

WHO WE WORK WITH

SUBSCRIBERS 350+ companies

USERS 2,000+

42%

Banks & Funds

37%

Shipowners & Operators

21%

Professional Services

BULKERS & CONTAINERS

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Five Year Old Fixed Age Values

Capesize Panamax Supramax Handy

PAST

$30.89

$19.87

$16.83

$11.40

$36.66

$23.24

$20.42

$13.89

#3 CAPE +19%

#4 PMAX +17%

#1 HANDY +22%

#2 SUPRA +21%

12 Month Change

CAPESIZE VALUES

CAPESIZE VALUES

HIGHEST VALUE $134.82M 2008

CAPESIZE VALUES

LOWEST VALUE $19.34M 2016

CAPESIZE VALUES

SOLD AT $20.5M IN 2017 TO CAPITAL MARITIME & TRADING

CAPESIZE VALUES

SOLD AT $29.5M IN 2017 TO NAVIOS MARITIME PARTNERS

CAPESIZE ASSET VALUE CYCLE

PRESENT

5.0% 3.8%

0.1%

-16%

-20.0%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

Capesize Panamax Supramax Handy

% C

hange

Current Market Value vs Historical Mean

POSSIBLE FUTURE

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2018 2019 2020 2021

% C

hange

Bulker Asset Values

5 Year Capesize 5 Year Panamax 5 Year Supramax 5 Year Handy

CONTAINERS

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ULCV Post Panamax Handy Feedermax

PAST

$84.86

$12.25

$12.92

$30.33

$14.92 $19.23

$36.11

$88.49 #4 ULCV +4%

#3 P-PMAX +19%

#2 FMAX +22%

#1 HANDY +49%

12 Month Change

SUB PANAMAX VALUES

SUB PANAMAX VALUES

HIGHEST VALUE $71.2M

SUB PANAMAX VALUES

LOWEST VALUE $6.9M

SUB PANAMAX VALUES

SOLD AT $47.0M IN 2007 TO NAUTILUS HOLDINGS

SUB PANAMAX VALUES

SOLD AT $10.5M IN 2018 TO MPC CONTAINER SHIPS

SUB PANAMAX ASSET VALUE CYCLE

PRESENT

-13%

-41%

-57%

-8%

-16%

-60.0%

-50.0%

-40.0%

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

ULCV Post Panamax Panamax Handy Feedermax

% C

hange


POSSIBLE FUTURE

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

180%


2018 2019 2020 2021

% C

hange

Container Asset Values

5 Year Post Panamax 5 Year Panamax 5 Year Handy 5 Year Feedermax

TANKERS

PAST

#3 VLCC +6%

#4 SUEZMAX +4%

#3 LR1 +6%

12 Month Change

#2 AFRAMAX +14%

#1 MR +19%

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VLCC Suezmax Aframax LR1 MR2

$58.94

$42.86

$28.73

$29.37

$23.37

$62.53

$44.54

$30.48

$33.37

$27.65

VLCC VALUES

VLCC VALUES

LOWEST VALUE $47.91M

VLCC VALUES

SOLD AT $119.0M IN 2010 TO GENMAR

VLCC VALUES

SOLD AT $53.0M IN 2017 TO INTERNATIONAL SEAWAYS

VLCC ASSET VALUE CYCLE

PRESENT

-9.6%

3.1%

-16.1%

-8.8%

-0.2%

-20.0%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

VLCC Suezmax Aframax LR1 MR

% C

hange


POSSIBLE FUTURE

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%


2018 2019 2020 2021

% C

hange

Tanker Asset Values

5 Year VLCC 5 Year Suezmax 5 Year Aframax 5 Year LR1 5 Year MR

OFFSHORE

0

50

100

150

200

250

Valu

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Semi-sub Rig Jack Up Rig PSV (Large) AHTS (Large)

PAST

#1 JACK UP +45%

#2 SEMI-SUB +10%

#4 AHTS +4%

#3 PSV +7%

$94.62 $81.67

$66.05

$15.64

$5.07

$89.62

$16.67

$5.26

12 MONTH CHANGE

AHTS VALUES

AHTS VALUES

LOWEST VALUE $6.16M

AHTS VALUES

SOLD AT $5.8M IN 2017 TO EASTERN NAVIGATION

AHTS ASSET VALUE CYCLE

PRESENT

-72%

-26.7%

-52.5%

-77.3%

-90%

-80%

-70%

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

Semi-sub Rig Jack Up Rig PSV (Large) AHTS (Large)

% C

hange


THE SO-SO LNG & LPG

0

20

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120

140

160

180

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Large LNG VLGC LPG Small Scale LNG MGC LPG Fully Press LPG

PAST

#4 LARGE LNG -4%

$152.3

$57.54

$36.49

$32.96

$8.66

$146.7

$61.46

$41.08

$8.69

$31.16

12 MONTH CHANGE

#2 VLGC LPG +7%

#1 SMALL LNG +13%

#5 MGC LPG -5%

#3 FP LPG +0%

PRESENT

-3%

8.5% 8%

-14.0%

-7.4%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

Large LNG VLGC LPG Small Scale LNG MGC LPG Fully Press LPG

% C

hange


SUMMARY

GOING UP

Bulkers

• China Demand (One Belt One Road?)

• Small orderbook

Containers

• China Trade

• The cycle

GOING SLOW

Tankers

• Crude demand issues?

• Can’t stop ordering

• But what goes down…

Gas

• Too many ships

• But…Good demand story

HUNGOVER

HUNGOVER - OFFSHORE

BETTER INFORMATION

BETTER DECISIONS

HELPS YOU MAKE

+44 (0) 203 026 5555

[email protected]

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a review of the major shipping markets & outlook for the ...€¦ · 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40...

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