a review on the state of the energy sector of turkey from the persective of operational research

A REVIEW ON THE STATE OF THE ENERGY SECTOR OF TURKEY FROM THE PERSPECTIVE

OF OPERATIONAL RESEARCH

Eren ÖZCEYLAN a, Turan PAKSOY a, Elise Del ROSARIO b,

Erik KROPAT c, Gerhard-Wilhelm WEBER d

a Selçuk University, Department of Industrial Engineering, Campus, Konya, Turkey.b Consultant, Department of Energy, Philippines;

Past President, International Federation of Operational Research Societies. c Universität der Bundeswehr München, Operations Research, Munich, Germany.

d Middle East Technical University, Institute of Applied Mathematics, Ankara, Turkey.

[email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected]

5th International Summer SchoolAchievements and Applications of Contemporary Informatics, Mathematics and PhysicsNational University of Technology of the UkraineKiev, Ukraine, August 3-15, 2010

http://www.up.edu.ph/index.php

http://www.ntu-kpi.kiev.ua/

http://ssa.ntu-kpi.kiev.ua/

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Agenda

Introduction

Energy Sector in Turkey

Different Energy Resources in Turkey

Energy Sector in the Philippines

OR in Energy Sector

Conclusion

A Review on the State of the Energy Sector of Turkey from the Perspective of Operational Research

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Introduction

Decision support in the energy sector

Long-term strategic planningPower generation capacity expansion planning

Short-term operational issuesOptimizing unit commitment

Distinct players

Utilities, regulatory bodies, governments, marketers, end-users, researchers

Operational Research

Multi disciplinary approach to support better decisions through the

application of advanced analytical tools.


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Introduction

Modeling and predicting electricity distribution

play a vital role in developed and developing countries

for policy makers and related organizations.

Underestimation of the consumption → potential outages that are devastating to life and economy.

Overestimation of the consumption→ unnecessary idle capacity / wasted financial resources.


Nonlinear models for electricity energy consumption

with good accuracy in order to avoid costly mistakes.

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Primary energy consumption, GDP, population, electricity production and consumption in Turkey


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Efficiency in energy production, transmission, distribution and consumption. Expansion of electricity supply infrastructure. Reduction of carbon emissions.

affect patterns of energy use / alter the composition of the energy mix


Turkey’s energy production and consumption

Energy is essential for economic and social development and improved

quality of life in Turkey, as in other countries.

Much of the world’s energy is currently produced and consumed in ways that cannot be sustained if technology were to remain constant and if overall quantities were to increase substantially.

Policymaking

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Turkey’s energy production values in the years 1990, 1995 and 2000


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Turkey’s total energy consumption in the years 1990, 1995 and 2000


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The relationship between electricity consumption and Gross National

Product (GNP) in Turkey has been erratic in the past.

Net Electricity Consumption (NEC)

increased steadily during the period of 1975–2000.

slight decreased between 2000 and 2001.

Gross national Product (GNP)

decreased three times (1979, 1993 and 2001) due to economic crisis.

NEC of Turkey has not been sensitive to economic crisis since the effect of

the economic crisis disappears in the period of one or two years.


The relationship between electricity consumption and GNP in Turkey

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The relationship between electricity consumption and GNP in Turkey


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A Brief Overview of Turkey’s Energy Sources Used for Generating Electric Power

In Turkey, electricity is produced by

thermal power (TPPs),

geothermal energy,

wind energy,

hydropower plants.


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A Brief Overview of Turkey’s Energy Sources Used for Generating Electric Power

Thermal resources

meet 60% of Turkey’s total installed capacity for electric power generation,

while 75% of total electricity is generated from TPPs.


Natural gas

Coal

Liquid fuel

Total thermal generation

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Coal

Coal consumption (1999): 84 MtHard coal consumption (1990): 8 MtLignite consumption (1990): 46 Mt

Hard coal consumption (projection 2020): 147 MtLignite consumption (projection 2020): 185 Mt


Turkey accounts for almost 90% of the coal consumed in the Middle East

increase by 139 Mt

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Coal


As a result of planning studies,

production and consumption of coal is expected to increase,

primarily to fuel additional coal-fired generating capacity.

Projects

1210 MW hard coal-fired plant (near Iskenderun), to be fueled by imported coal

1440 MW lignite-fired plant (Afsin-Elbistan B plant)

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Coal


Natural gas-fired plants have been gaining great importance

In 1999, the share of coal-fired plants in the total installed capacity was 26%,

followed by natural gas at 24%, and oil at 6%.

The coal share of energy consumed for electricity generation is projected to be

30% in 2010 and 27% in 2020.

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Natural Gas

Turkey continues to expand the use of natural gas

5 municipalities, 6 industrial zones, 200 industrial plants,

2 fertilizer production facilities, 7 power plants

utilize natural gas as an energy source.


Natural gas

Coal

Liquid fuel

Turkey’s natural gas demand

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Natural Gas

In Turkey, as in Europe and the United States, energy policies have had an important effect on the availability of natural gas and its development

as a fuel for electricity generation.

Turkish natural gas demand is projected to increase extremely rapidly in the coming years, with the prime consumers expected to be natural gas-firedelectric power plants and industrial users.


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LPG

Used since the beginning of the 1960s.

Share of LPG / natural gas (2000): 30 and 70%

Ratio will change in favor of natural gas.

LPG in cogeneration plants: < 1% today.


Recent expansion of LPG industry in Turkey has demonstrated

the long-term potential for the regional LPG markets.

Utilization of LPG as an energy source in Turkey

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Oil

Crude oil production (2002): 2.4 Mt (8% of the total oil demand)

Oil reserves: 954 Mt (in known areas)

Extractable oil: 156 Mt

Remaining recoverable reserve (2002): 39 Mt


With the current production level and no additional reserve discovery,

the production capacity will still be available for some 16 years.

The Turkish historian Evliya Celebi first mentioned the existence of oil inTurkey in the 18th century. The first productive well, operated by the EuropeanPetroleum Company, was located in the Hora Deresi region.

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Oil consumption (1990): 22.7 Mt

Oil consumption (2002): 29.6 Mt

Final oil consumption (2002): 24.2 Mt

(42.7% of Turkey’s total final energy consumption).

Between 1990 and 2002, oil supply increased at an average growth rate of 2.2% annually.

In 2002, 8.3% of the total electrical energy generation came from oil fired plants.


Oil production has declined since the early 1990s

and is expected to decrease due to the natural depletion of the fields.

Oil

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Hydro

Gross hydro potential: 432,986 GWh

Hydroelectric energy production (1990): 23,148 GWh

Hydroelectric energy production (2002): 33,684 GWh

Annual average growth rate: 3.2%

Hydropower potential (2002): 126 billion kWh (34% has been exploited)


It is projected that the increase in the hydro energy

production will continue in the coming years.

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Geothermal

Estimated geothermal electrical power: 4000 – 4500 MWc

Direct use (heat) potentials: 31.500 MWt

Potential for electricity generation: 764.81 MWc

Potential for heat generation: 3173 MWt


Large potential of geothermal development in Turkey in terms of moderate and low temperature resources (→ direct use applications).

Denizli Kizildere geothermal power plant produced an electrical energy of 105 GWh in 2002.

(Data: MTA)

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Wind

Progress in wind energy technology in recent years has drawn private

sector attention to this energy resource. As a consequence, numerous companies

have submitted their applications to the MENR for the construction of new wind

power plants.

Highest wind power potentialAegean, Marmara, and East-Mediterranean regions of Turkey

Theoretically available potential for wind power88,000 MW

Economically feasible potential for wind power

some 10,000 MW


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Conclusion

New challenges require novel solutions

How to deal with the

political, economic, planning, environmental and social aspects of energy production and consumption

How to guarantee secure supplies

How to promote energy efficiency in industry, services and households

How to deal with market power

Identifying the links between energy use and industrial production patterns

How to value the benefits of renewable resources

How to select the best options for greenhouse gas mitigation

How to refine the regionalization of the energy markets for an improved analysis, decision making and development


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Conclusion


Installation of additional electricity power plants will be very important for the near future.

Historical electricity consumption indicates a continuing increase into the future.

Population growth, accompanied by the increase in social and economic development and urbanizationsupports this trend.

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Conclusion

Putting up additional generating capacity brings to the fore other issues:

facility types and lead times of having these facilities up and running,

huge capital outlays required for power generation and transmission facilities,

disposition of aging, high maintenance facilities which may include shutting down or rehabilitating these equipment or plants, and

Privatization/nationalization of certain operations and services.


Optimizing Power Generation in the Philippines

In the face of excess capacity, which plants are best to operate that will result in minimum power generation costs?

Capacity Utilization

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

Janu

ary

Febru

ary

Mar

chApr

ilM

ay

June Ju

ly

Augus

t

Septe

mbe

r

Oct

ober

Nov

embe

r

Dec

embe

r

(MW

) Spinning Reserve

Excess Capacity

Forecasted Demand for 2003

Plants as classified by fuel used and ownership

NPC IPP

NPC

Hydro

Geothermal

Natural Gas

Coal

Oil-Based

IPP

Optimizing Power Generation

The situation: 6 coal, 3 natural gas, 12 oil based,

10 hydro, 5 geothermal plants each with own efficiency, fees, ownership profile

Generating capacity greater than requirement

Demand for power varies hourly

Transmission facilities limit output from a power grid

Minimize total generation cost while considering:

Plant Capacities are not exceeded.

Southern Luzon transmission requirement does not exceed any of the possible combinations.

Total capacity of running plants are at least 13.2%* over demand (spinning reserve).

Fuel consumption is affected by activity level. IPP take-or-pay / foreign currency payments are

complied with. Set-up time must be allowed before operation.

*2.8% primary response,10.4% secondary response

Hydroelectric plants are limited by water levels in case of Kalayaan, by pumping.

Preventive Maintenance schedule must be followed.

Optimizing Power Generation

OR was used to: Forecast hourly demand

Determined which plants to schedule for power generation using MIP

Outcome: Challenged widely-held beliefs and rules of thumb

used in dispatching.

Showed savings of USD 40M against current scheduling practices.

Planning rural electrification projects in Peru

Determined: the location of each wind turbine and design

of micro grids location and sizing of equipment (batteries,

inverters, controllers and meters)

Such that investment costs are minimum but satisfying demand and technical constraints.

Technique used: MILP

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Conclusion

The two examples showed how OR has been used to help optimize resources in the area of energy in the context of a developing country.


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There are other novel tools available from OR

mathematical programming, stochastic programming, multi-criteria decision making, control and system theory, stochastic optimal control, martingale method, applied probability, by the use of stochastic calculus and financial mathematics, especially, portfolio optimization, graphs and networks, combinatorial optimization, OR in environmental protection, etc..


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Conclusion

New and multifaceted problems arising in the energy sector require novel approaches and methodological developments.

Operational Research models and methods can provide quantitative insights into complex problems and uncover the best courses of action.

This paper is an invitation to the international community of researchers and practitioners in the area of energy to make use of the rich methodologies and toolboxes of modern OR.


a review on the state of the energy sector of turkey from the persective of operational research

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