A Roadmap for Improving Aviation Weather in the 21st CenturyNational Business Aviation Association, Inc.

Orlando, FloridaOctober 7, 2003

Sponsored by the Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research

(OFCM)

Facilitator

Mary M. Cairns

Overview

• Background

• National Aviation Weather Program

Mid-Course Assessment - The Report

• Panel Presentations

• Discussion

• Summary

Weather Impacts on the NAS • Safety

– Weather is a major contributing factor to aviation accidents

• about 25% of all aviation accidents

• about 33% of all fatal commercial carrier accidents

• about 25% of all fatal general aviation accidents

• Efficiency

– Good weather facilitates the NAS

– Marginal weather debilitates the NAS

– Poor weather strangulates the NAS

OFCM Mission

To ensure the effective use of federal

meteorological resources by leading the

systematic coordination of operational

weather requirements, services, and

supporting research among the federal

agencies

Coordinating InfrastructureFederal Committee for Meteorological Services and

Supporting Research (FCMSSR)

Interdepartmental Committee for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research (ICMSSR)

Federal Coordinator for Meteorology

Program Councils

National Space Weather Program

National Aviation Weather ProgramEnvironmental

Services, Operations, and Research Needs

Operational Processing Centers

Environmental Information Systems and Communications

Integrated Observing Systems

Climate Analysis, Monitoring and

Services

Cooperative Research

Working Group for

Environmental Support to Homeland Security

Standing Committees

Historical Background• 1995 National Research Council Report Aviation

Weather Services - A Call for Federal Leadership and Action– FAA identified as lead agency

• 1997 Report of the White House Commission on Aviation Safety and Security called for an 80% reduction in the rate of fatal aviation accidents by the year 2007

• Reiterated in FAA Flight Plan 2004-2008

OFCM’s Actions• 1997 National Aviation Weather Program Strategic Plan• 1999 National Aviation Weather Initiatives (and subsequent

updates)• 2000 Aviation Weather User Forum

– Product development– Product dissemination– Cockpit displays– Training– Decision support systems/capabilities

• 2001 National Aviation Weather Initiatives Final Baseline Tier 3/4 Report (and subsequent updates, e.g., 2003)

• 2002 Aviation Weather Training Report• 2003 National Aviation Weather Program Mid-Course Assessment

National Aviation Weather ProgramMid-Course Assessment –

The Report

Accident Reduction Trends

Confirm Value of Coordinated R&D

Programs

Report Findings• Sustaining risk reduction success in general

aviation• Reducing accident trends for smaller

commercial carriers• Reducing risk from turbulence and convection

hazards• Reducing risk from high density altitude• Risk reduction for other weather factors• Sustaining R&D to continue improving

aviation safety

Panel Focus

• Where have we been, Where are we now, and Where are we going?

• What products have made a significant difference in the reduction of weather-related accidents to date?

• What current and future products and programs could make a significant improvement in safety toward the 2007 goal and beyond?

Panel• Moderator: Ms. Mary M. Cairns, OFCM, Senior Staff• Panelists:

– Mr. David Whatley, FAA, Director, Aerospace Weather Policy and Standards Staff

– Mr. Tom Fahey, Northwest Airlines, Manager, Meteorology

– Mr. Mark Andrews, NWS, Chief, Aviation Service Branch

– Col. Neil Wyse, USAF, Deputy for Federal Programs, Directorate of Weather

Current Icing Potential (CIP)

• Agencies: FAA, NWS

• Description: Improved icing product

• User Need: – National Aviation Weather Initiatives– GA Weather JSIT– FAA In-flight Aircraft Icing Plan

• Benefits: Reduced accidents/fatalities

• Lessons Learned: Need for user involvement

Future

• Program: CIP Severity

• Agencies: FAA, NWS in AWTT process

• Expected Benefit: Improvement of usefulness of the product

• Expected Challenges: Obtaining enough PIREPs for verification, especially SLD

Northwest Airlines (NWA) Turbulence Plot (TP) System

• What: An air carrier, integrated process addressing wx obstacles during preflight planning & en route operations

• How: Data ingest and production, distribution, display & application of tailored weather information

• Who: Dispatchers Meteorologists Flight Attendants Pilots

• Why/User Need: Developed to address FAA’s Federal Air Regulations & internal NWA business model

• Benefits: Reduced en route wx hazard encounters affecting Flight Attendants Passengers

Aircraft• Training: Initial & recurrent training for all active

participants• Challenges: Quantifying value of safety & efficiency

Existing NWA Program: CDM (Collaborative Decision Making)

• What: NAS Users & Mgr’s effort to improve NAS efficiency

• How: NAS data shared between Gov’t & Industry via common displays to facilitate agreement on NAS management

• Who: Gov’t & Industry NAS users & Mgr’s and Research Community

• Why/User Need: Increase predictability & Capacity of the NAS

• Benefits/Goal: Reduced air traffic delays, diversions & cancellations

New NWA Effort: CDM – Wx Applications

• Concept: Integrate Wx Info Management & Air Traffic Management processes to– Provide Improved Aviation Weather

Information– Enhance Ability of Decision Makers to Use the

Information

• Challenges to Implement: Resources

NOAA’s Aviation Weather ProgramNOAA’s Aviation Weather ProgramPartnering towards improved aviation servicesPartnering towards improved aviation services

Past and current achievementsPast and current achievements

• Improved processesImproved processes– Aviation Weather Technology Transfer processAviation Weather Technology Transfer process

– Canadian participation in Collaborative Convective Forecast Canadian participation in Collaborative Convective Forecast ProductProduct

– Multi-governmental agency and international participation in Multi-governmental agency and international participation in development of new aviation training coursesdevelopment of new aviation training courses

– Better integration of FAA/NASA research into NOAA operational Better integration of FAA/NASA research into NOAA operational productsproducts

• Improved aviation forecast toolsImproved aviation forecast tools• Aviation forecast preparation system released July 2003Aviation forecast preparation system released July 2003

• Increased use of time proven forecast techniquesIncreased use of time proven forecast techniques

• Improved verification systemsImproved verification systems

NOAA’s Aviation Weather ProgramNOAA’s Aviation Weather ProgramPartnering towards improved aviation servicesPartnering towards improved aviation services

Future workFuture work

• Complete development and use of “Cradle to Grave” Complete development and use of “Cradle to Grave” aviation product processaviation product process– Multi-agency Joint Planning Office effortMulti-agency Joint Planning Office effort– Better advance warning of new and improved forecast products to Better advance warning of new and improved forecast products to

dissemination system buildersdissemination system builders– Incorporate end-user feedback directly into the design of new Incorporate end-user feedback directly into the design of new

products from the very start (example: Graphical Area Forecast)products from the very start (example: Graphical Area Forecast)• Enhanced DoD and NOAA partnershipsEnhanced DoD and NOAA partnerships– Terminal Aerodrome ForecastsTerminal Aerodrome Forecasts– 4-dimensional aviation database4-dimensional aviation database

• Increased level of automationIncreased level of automation– Take advantage of FAA’s Aviation Weather Research Program Take advantage of FAA’s Aviation Weather Research Program

results to provide gridded aviation parameter forecastsresults to provide gridded aviation parameter forecasts• Increased emphasis on graphical productsIncreased emphasis on graphical products

DOD – Past and Present• Who: USN• Program: NWP - NOGAPS• What: Robust atmospheric data

assimilation and forecast model– Increased resolution; better

representation of jet stream level winds

– Upgraded data assimilation system

• User need: Improved support for aviation forecasts

• Benefit: Overall improvement in global modeling for aviation forecasts.

• Training: Operational training courses

• Who: USAF• Program: Cloud Depiction and

Forecast System (CDFS) II• What: Fine-scale 3-D depiction

of cloud height, amt, and type derived from geostationary and polar orbiting weather satellite sensor data. Produces forecasts to 12h.

• User need: Improved cloud cover information, on a global scale.

• Benefit: More accurate cloud depiction and forecasts for mission completion. Also benefits other agencies (e.g., USN).

• Training: Operational training courses

DoD – Future• Who: DoD, NOAA, NASA Multi-agency Partnerships• What: Environmental Satellite Program

– GOES-R (NASA/NOAA)– NPP [NPOESS PREP PROGRAM] (NASA)– NPOESS (DoD/NOAA/NASA)-- RESEARCH AND CLIMO PATHFINDERS

-- EOS --- Terra and Aqua (NASA)• Benefits: Improved observations for atmospheric soundings, data

assimilation, volcanic ash (aerosols)– Increased resolution—Improved model initiation– Improved timeliness

• Who: DoD/Air Force• What: BENVINT (Battlespace ENVironmental INTellegence)

– Test Program for UAV Weather Sensor • Benefits: Weather obs from Data Denied and Data Sparse Regions

– Front line data/obs/reduced risk– Inproved weather intel to decision makers– Application to large data void areas—Oceans/Ranges

Open Discussion

Summary• NAWP Assessment Report should help guide

development and plans to continue to improve safety and efficiency in the NAS

• FAA should continue to lead the effort towards the Strategic Plan goal in 2007 and beyond

• Aviation community should continue to work closely together

• Much work still needs to be done…FAA, other federal agencies, industry, university, and private organizations work on identifying and specifying the gaps

Further Information

Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology

8455 Colesville Road, Suite 1500Silver Spring, Maryland 20910

(301) 427-2002

Website: www.ofcm.gov