a statistician's reflections on the tivozanib experience...1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.0...

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A Statistician's Reflections on the Tivozanib Experience Andrew Strahs, Ph.D.

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Page 1: A Statistician's Reflections on the Tivozanib Experience...1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.0 Tivozanib HR (95% a): 1.25 (0.95, 1.62) P-VaIue: 0.105 Sorafenib 20 24 28 43 39 32 o 241

A Statistician's Reflections on

the Tivozanib Experience

Andrew Strahs, Ph.D.

Page 2: A Statistician's Reflections on the Tivozanib Experience...1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.0 Tivozanib HR (95% a): 1.25 (0.95, 1.62) P-VaIue: 0.105 Sorafenib 20 24 28 43 39 32 o 241

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Source: ODAC slide deck - FDA

Page 3: A Statistician's Reflections on the Tivozanib Experience...1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.0 Tivozanib HR (95% a): 1.25 (0.95, 1.62) P-VaIue: 0.105 Sorafenib 20 24 28 43 39 32 o 241

Source: ODAC slide deck - FDA

Page 4: A Statistician's Reflections on the Tivozanib Experience...1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.0 Tivozanib HR (95% a): 1.25 (0.95, 1.62) P-VaIue: 0.105 Sorafenib 20 24 28 43 39 32 o 241

Source: ODAC slide deck - FDA

Page 5: A Statistician's Reflections on the Tivozanib Experience...1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.0 Tivozanib HR (95% a): 1.25 (0.95, 1.62) P-VaIue: 0.105 Sorafenib 20 24 28 43 39 32 o 241

Source: ODAC slide deck - FDA

Page 6: A Statistician's Reflections on the Tivozanib Experience...1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.0 Tivozanib HR (95% a): 1.25 (0.95, 1.62) P-VaIue: 0.105 Sorafenib 20 24 28 43 39 32 o 241

Source: ODAC slide deck - FDA

Page 7: A Statistician's Reflections on the Tivozanib Experience...1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.0 Tivozanib HR (95% a): 1.25 (0.95, 1.62) P-VaIue: 0.105 Sorafenib 20 24 28 43 39 32 o 241

Do AVEO and Astellas offer

an explanation?

Page 8: A Statistician's Reflections on the Tivozanib Experience...1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.0 Tivozanib HR (95% a): 1.25 (0.95, 1.62) P-VaIue: 0.105 Sorafenib 20 24 28 43 39 32 o 241

Source: ODAC slide deck – Sponsor

Page 9: A Statistician's Reflections on the Tivozanib Experience...1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.0 Tivozanib HR (95% a): 1.25 (0.95, 1.62) P-VaIue: 0.105 Sorafenib 20 24 28 43 39 32 o 241

Source: ODAC slide deck - Sponsor

Page 10: A Statistician's Reflections on the Tivozanib Experience...1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.0 Tivozanib HR (95% a): 1.25 (0.95, 1.62) P-VaIue: 0.105 Sorafenib 20 24 28 43 39 32 o 241

Source: ODAC slide deck - Sponsor

Page 11: A Statistician's Reflections on the Tivozanib Experience...1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.0 Tivozanib HR (95% a): 1.25 (0.95, 1.62) P-VaIue: 0.105 Sorafenib 20 24 28 43 39 32 o 241

Source: ODAC slide deck - Sponsor

Page 12: A Statistician's Reflections on the Tivozanib Experience...1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.0 Tivozanib HR (95% a): 1.25 (0.95, 1.62) P-VaIue: 0.105 Sorafenib 20 24 28 43 39 32 o 241

Reflections• You can’t analyze your way out of a study

design flaw

• It’s not just about the primary endpoint

• Think through – and model/simulate – all

aspects of your design

• Be wary of design changes intended to

stimulate enrollment