a study of major economic aggregates - bangladesh

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A Study on Major Macroeconomic

Aggregates of Bangladesh of the

period

Q4 2010 Q4 2011

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A Study on Bangladesh Economy Q4 2010 Q4 2011

Prepared For

Dr. Zayed Bakht (Course Teacher)

Prepared By

Md. Raiyan Hossain

ID: 083-571-060

North South University

Dhaka, Bangladesh.

April 15, 2011

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Acknowledgement

First of all we would like to thank the Almighty for giving us the strength, and

the aptitude to complete this report within due time. We are deeply indebted

to our course teacher, Dr. Zayed Bakht for assigning us such an interesting

topic. We also express the depth of my appreciation to our honorable course

teacher for his suggestion and guidelines, which helped us in completing this

report.

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Executive Summary

Inflation, unemployment, export and import are the major factor of macro

economics. Losing the purchasing power and increasing the cost of

production indicates the high rate of inflation. Unemployment occurs when

people are without jobs and they have actively looked for work within the

past four weeks. The trend of the growth of the real GDP is called Growth

Trend. Economic growth is primarily driven by improvements in productivity.

However, inflation & growth rate have both positive & negative relationship

depending on situation. Moreover, inflation and unemployment have a

negative relationship. If we analyze the economical condition of our countryit is clear that inflation is higher in recent years comparing with past decade.

Growth trend is upward till the inflation rate is 7 percent. After that the trend

gets downward. At the same time unemployment rate is inverse all the time

with inflation rate maintaining contractionary & expansionary policy. Inflation

fluctuates all the time because of the fluctuation of the money supply. But in

recent years, we came to know that international affairs are influencing to

increase the inflation rate. Consistent budget deficit and exchange rate

deteriorate the economic growth which directly relates with unemployment

& inflation.Export Volume of All Items Including Goods and Services (Percent

Change) for Bangladesh in year 2010 is 13.112. This makes Bangladesh No.

47 in world rankings according to Export Volume of All Items Including Goods

and Services (Percent Change) in year 2010. The world's average Export

Volume of All Items Including Goods and Services (Percent Change) value is

7.69 %; Bangladesh is 5.42 more than the average.In the previous year,

2009, Export Volume of All Items Including Goods and Services (Percent

Change) for Bangladesh was 9.42 % Export Volume of All Items Including

Goods and Services (Percent Change) for Bangladesh in 2010 was or will be

39.15% more than it was or will be in 2009.In the following or forecasted

year, 2011, Export Volume of All Items Including Goods and Services

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(Percent Change) for Bangladesh was or will be 14.77 %, which is 12.67%

more than the 2010 figure.Import Volumes of Goods Only (Percent Change)

for Bangladesh in year 2010 is 11.958 % This makes Bangladesh No. 56 in

world rankings according to Import Volumes of Goods Only (Percent Change)

in year 2010. The world's average Import Volumes of Goods Only (Percent

Change) value is 8.25 %; Bangladesh is 3.71 more than the average.

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Table of Contents

Page

1. Introduction 1

2. Inflation 2

3. Unemployment 5

4. Causes of Unemployment 6

5. Export 8

6. Export receipts by mode of financing 10

7. Import 11

8. Import payments by mode of financing 11

9. Conclusion 13

10. Bibliography 14

Introduction

In mainstream economics, the word inflation refers to a general rise in

prices measured against a standard level of purchasing power. Inflation in

urban areas rose even faster than the national average, hitting 12.29

percent in September on a 14.67 percent surge in food prices and 9 percent

advance in non-food prices.Inflation in rural areas hit 11.85 percent, with a

13.35 percent rise in food prices and a 8.69 percent rise in non-food prices.

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Food prices have rocketed in recent months. Unemployment is one of the

most serious problems in Bangladesh and its increasing at rapid pace. The

unemployment rate is defined as the level of unemployment divided by the

labour force. The employment rate is defined as the number of people

currently employed divided by the adult population (or by the population of

working age). In these statistics, self-employed people are counted as

employed. Export Volumes of Goods Only (Percent Change) for Bangladesh

in year 2010 is 12.23 %. This makes Bangladesh No. 66 in world rankings

according to Export Volumes of Goods Only (Percent Change) in year 2010.

Import Volumes of Goods Only (Percent Change) for Bangladesh in year 2010

is 11.958 %

This makes Bangladesh No. 56 in world rankings according to Import

Volumes of Goods Only (Percent Change) in year 2010.

Inflation

In mainstream economics, the word inflation refers to a general rise in

prices measured against a standard level of purchasing power. Previously

the term was used to refer to an increase in the money supply, which is now

referred to as expansionary monetary policy or monetary inflation. Inflation

is measured by comparing two sets of goods at two points in time, and

computing the increase in cost not reflected by an increase in quality. There

are, therefore, many measures of inflation depending on the specific

circumstances.

The inflationary situation in Bangladesh is on the rising trend, especially

since August 2009, primarily owing to the soaring increase in food prices.

The food price hike has accelerated the general inflation rate in the country.

If the food price level rises at an existing rate of 1.31 percent per month and

if adequate anti inflationary measures are not taken, the overall general

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inflation might touch a double digit figure. The current rate of rise in

inflationary pressure suggests that the rate of general inflation might reach

to 10.71 percent by the end of this fiscal year and the food inflation may

reach to 12.84 percent in June 2011. Should there be a double digit inflation,

this would pose a severe threat to the macro-economic stability in the

country. Bangladesh has already experienced a double-digit food inflation

rate on point-to-point basis since July 2007. The soaring prices of essential

commodities, especially, food prices could hurt the poor and worsen equity.

Persistent high inflation may unleash forces that jeopardize macroeconomic

stability and economic growth. Last year, the International Monetary Fund

(IMF) also warned Bangladesh that excess liquidity and resurgent

international commodity and food prices might push inflation to double-digit

levels by year-end (The Daily Star, 30 October 2009).

Food inflation leaves a harmful impact on the purchasing power when the

per capita GDP does not correspond with inflation. From August 2009 to June

2010, the food inflation has risen by 5.7 percent whereas GDP growth rate

has fallen by 0.1 percent, indicating that the purchasing power of the peopleshrunk drastically.

The point to point variation in the national inflation rate during the last one

year varied between 4.6 percent and 9.1 percent. It came down from 8.7

percent in June 2010 to 7.26 percent in July and went up to 7.61 percent in

September 2010. The dominance of food inflation is still substantial in the

overall inflation, with 10.8 percent in January 2011, making overall inflation

in that month at 8.99 percent. This is mainly due to the high price of rice in

the domestic market.

The overall food price situation in the country has raised serious concerns.

Prices of essential food commodities particularly, rice has shot up even after

good harvest of Boro crop. The retail prices of food grain in the local market

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have increased significantly in the recent months and likely to increase

further until the next harvest. Prices of other essential food commodities like

wheat flour and rice have also gone up. The wholesale prices of both wheat

and rice rise at a higher rate than those of the retail prices of both the

commodities during the year 2010. During January to December 2010, the

wholesale average price of rice increased by 25 percent while the wheat

price has risen up by 16.67 percent. At the same time the retail prices of

rice have gone up by 20 percent while the wheat prices have increased by

13.04 percent. The gap between wholesale and retail price of rice is 5

percent while for wheat it is 3.63 percent. The main reason of enormous gap

between the wholesale prices and retail prices is liable to the hoarding of

food grains by the wholesalers. This provides room for the wholesalers to

maneuver the prices in favor of them. This maneuverability allows them to

dictate retail price at the cost of the consumers.

Rice and wheat are the staple food of Bangladesh. Change in prices of these

food stuff affects the people most adversely than changes in prices of any

other commodities. In Bangladesh, prices for rice and wheat have risen

quite abruptly in the first quarter of the current budgetary cycle. The price

surge in the international market is due to shortage of supply, especially for

export ban imposed by many countries (e.g. Russia, Ukraine) and natural

disaster occurred in some of the major food exporting countries. Between

September 2009 and September 2010, the nominal rice and wheat prices

increased by 63 percent and 33 percent respectively. The corresponding real

prices also have risen by 53 percent and 24 percent, with a substantial rate

of increase in rice prices.

During the last quarter of the year 2010, the average global food price index

increased by 2.93 percent whereas the average local food price increased by

0.70 percent and the general inflation rate of Bangladesh in the last quarter

increased by 0.53 percent. From the above calculation of the period of

October December 2010, it is found that if the world food price increases by

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1 percent, the food price in Bangladesh increases by 0.23 percent and the

general inflation by 0.18 percent. A dramatic increase in the world food price

is observed in the recently published FAO food price index. The continued

increase in food prices has led many a commentators to suggest of a global

crisis and increasing political and economical instability, particularly in the

under developed and developing countries. The price that drastically

increased in 2007 had faced a downward trend after June 2008. But from

2009 the price has started to rise again and has continued till then.

The FAO Food Price Index (FFPI) has risen for the seventh consecutive

month, averaging 231 points in January 2011, up by 3.4 percent from

December 2010.The FAO Cereal Price Index has averaged 245 points inJanuary, up 3 percent from December which was the highest since July 2008,

but it is 11percent less than April 2008 price index. The increase in January

mostly reflected continued increases in international prices of wheat

and maize, amid tightening supplies, while rice prices fell slightly, as the

timing coincides with the harvesting of main crops in major exporting

countries.

Time Period(2010)

World Food PriceIndex

Bangladesh FoodPrice Index

BangladeshGeneral Inflation

January-March -7% 0.2% 0.1%April-June -1.2% 0.4% 0.3%July-September 12.79% -1.1% -1.2%October-

December

8.78% 2.11% 1.6%

Table1: World food price index, Bangladesh food price index and Bangladesh General

Inflation in the year 2010

During the period of October to December 2010, the world food price index

has risen by 8.78 percent that generated a steady increase in Bangladesh

food price by 2.11 percent as well as the general inflation rate by 1.6 percent

during the same period.

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Food inflation jumped to 13.75 percent in September from 12.70 percent in

August, while non-food inflation edged up to 8.77 percent from 8.76 percent,

the official at the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics said. Price pressures are a

major concern for the government as more than a third of the country's 160

million people live on less than $1.25 a day.

Inflation in urban areas rose even faster than the national average, hitting

12.29 percent in September on a 14.67 percent surge in food prices and 9

percent advance in non-food prices.

Inflation in rural areas hit 11.85 percent, with a 13.35 percent rise in food

prices and a 8.69 percent rise in non-food prices. Food prices have rocketed

in recent months -- despite plentiful stocks at government inventories and

record crops -- with analysts blaming inefficient markets and hoarding. The

government raised oil and gas prices in September for the second time since

May to help to relieve state firms' hefty subsidy burden, a move that added

more impetus to already high inflation.

(Reporting by Ruma Paul; Editing by Sophie Walker)

Unemployment

Unemployment is one of the most serious problems in Bangladesh and its

increasing at rapid pace. The unemployment rate is defined as the level of

unemployment divided by the labour force. The employment rate is defined

as the number of people currently employed divided by the adult population

(or by the population of working age). In these statistics, self-employed

people are counted as employed.

Variables like employment level, unemployment level, labour force, and

unfilled vacancies are called stock variables because they measure a

quantity at a point in time. They can be contrasted with flow variables which

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measure a quantity over a duration of time. Changes in the labour force are

due to flow variables such as natural population growth, net immigration,

new entrants, and retirements from the labour force. Changes in

unemployment depend on: inflows made up of non-employed people starting

to look for jobs and of employed people who lose their jobs and look for new

ones; and outflows of people who find new employment and of people who

stop looking for employment.

When looking at the overall macroeconomy, several types of unemployment

have been identified, including:

1.Frictional unemployment2. Structural unemployment

3. Natural rate of unemployment

4. Demand deficient unemployment

Cause of unemployment:

Bangladesh, suffers from large-scale underemployment; especiallyin agriculture, a large part of the population could be removed without

reducing agricultural output. Beyond agriculture, disguised unemployment

also exists in industries, offices and organizations, particularly in the public

sector. Unemployment among the educated youths is rather high

in Bangladesh. The unemployment rate for the population having secondary

education and above is significantly higher than those with a lower level of

education. The unemployment rate for educated women is higher compared

to the male population. In Bangladesh salaried employment in the formal

sectors is not big enough to take care of the huge number of unemployed.

Employment promotion, especially, creation of self-employment

opportunities, continues to be the most important function of the Bureau

of Manpower Employment and Training. The Fifth Five-Year Plan (1997-2002)

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had set a target of creating additional employment of 6.35 million persons.

Of this, 1,60,000 persons are expected to be engaged in self-employment.

Emphasis had been given on training and credit support to women

entrepreneurs in micro cottage industries and other traditional and non-

traditional sectors including skill development for service industries and

other non-farm activities. Bangladesh has a rather high rate of Inflation rate

10.2% also provides a vital role in Unemployment. Minimum wage law &

Labour unions working for efficiency wages also a reason for unemployment

as well-paid employees rarely leaves their job to create chance for the new

workers. According to a study of the International Labour Organization

(ILO),the rate of growth of unemployment in Bangladesh was 1.9 per cent in

the nineties. But the growth in unemployment currently is 3.7 per cent.

Inflation and Unemployment are the two closely watched indicators for

evaluating the macroeconomic performance of a country. There exists a

negative association between the inflation rate and the unemployment rate

according to the articulation of A.W. Philips. It shows that if inflation is low,

unemployment rate is high and if inflation is high, unemployment rate should

be low. This relationship is known as The Philips Curve. Later Samuelsonand Solow also supported that, the policymakers face a trade-off between

inflation and unemployment and the Philips curve illustrates that trade-off.

But the data of Bangladesh in recent years depict a different picture than the

findings of Philips.

Surveys Inflation in corresponding

years (%)

Unemployment

Rate (%)

Average Inflation

(5 Years)

LFS,1990-91 8.3 1.9 8.3LFS,1995-96 6.7 2.57 5.24LFS,1999-2000 2.79 4.3 5.62LFS,2002-03 4.38 4.3 3.04LFS,2005-06 7.71 4.3 6.49MES,2009 7.31 5.1 7.94LFS, 2010 8.1 5.1 6.34LFS, 2011 10.7 5 6.40

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Table 2: Inflation Rate and Corresponding Unemployment Rate in different years.

Source: Bangladesh Economic Review, 2010, Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics and authors

calculation of average inflation based on the data.

The Labour Force Survey (LFS) conducted by Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics(BBS) after every five years presents the unemployment situation of the

country. In LFS 1990-91 unemployment rate was 1.9 percent and inflation in

that year was 8.3 percent and after that in LFS 1995-96 unemployment

increased to 2.57 percent but inflation in that year was lower than before

with 6.7 percent rate and the average inflation of these five years also was

low. Therefore, it supported the findings of the Philips curve. However,

according to the Monitoring of Employment Survey -2009 (MES), the

unemployment rate reached to 5.1 percent, the highest in the last twenty

years and average five-year inflation rate was also highest in the last twenty

years with a rate of 7.31 percent. Thus, in Bangladesh rate of unemployment

is increasing along with increasing rate of inflation from FY 2005-06 and thus

the relationship between inflation and unemployment has become positive.

Thus, the economy of Bangladesh is heading towards a two-way trap; as high

inflation is creating income erosion and increasing unemployment rate is

preventing access of general people into income source. On an average,

workers are losing Tk. 384.04 per month of their nominal earnings due to the

effects of inflation in 2009 (till June) [Bangladesh Economic Update

September, 2010, Unnayan Onneshan]. Simultaneously, decreasing scope of

employment is triggering the poverty situation and creating inequality.

Therefore, poor people are faced with a twin pressure of loss of income and

scope of getting employed.

Export

Export Volumes of Goods Only (Percent Change) for Bangladesh in year 2010

is 12.23 %

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This makes Bangladesh No. 66 in world rankings according to Export

Volumes of Goods Only (Percent Change) in year 2010. The world's average

Export Volumes of Goods Only (Percent Change) value is 9.04 %; Bangladesh

is 3.19 more than the average.

In the previous year, 2009, Export Volumes of Goods Only (Percent Change)

for Bangladesh was 8.46 % Export Volumes of Goods Only (Percent Change)

for Bangladesh in 2010 was or will be 44.63% more than it was or will be in

2009.

In the following or forecasted year, 2011, Export Volumes of Goods Only

(Percent Change) for Bangladesh was or will be 16.24 %, which is 32.82%

more than the 2010 figure.

Import value has always been larger than exports for Bangladesh

(Figure 8), keeping the trade balance in negative territory. Exports

experienced a robust growth of 41% in the last six months of 2010

compared to the same period of 2009. Much of this export growth has

been supported by readymade garments (RMG) with significant contributions

from jute and jute goods, frozen foods, shrimp, and leather goods. The

growth in garments export can be tracked to a change in the

generalized system of preference rule to EU zone. On the other hand,

imports also recorded a large increase of 37% over the same time horizon.

Exports increased 39.9% to $12.18 billion in the July 2010 to January 2011

period compared with the same months a year earlier. That marks a sharp

recovery from the 4.7% year-on-year decline during the first seven months of

the 2009-1010 fiscal year and easily outpaces the nearly 12% increase

recorded in July 2008 to May 2009 as the global financial crisis started to

take its toll.

Export growth was fueled by gains in the staple sectors of knitwear and

woven garments, while relatively new industries such as shipbuilding also

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helped to make up for declines elsewhere, including engineering and

petrochemicals. Knitwear exports gained 43% to $5.07 billion in the seven

months to January and woven garments 39% to $4.39 billion. Home textiles

from pillow covers to curtains jumped 87% to $376.8 million while frozen

foods including fish, shrimps and other foods surged 52% to $384.3 million.

Smaller sectors saw similar growth, as consumers in the European Union,

which takes just over half of Bangladesh's exports, and the American region

(one third of total exports) increased spending as the global recession eased.

Footwear exports gained 50% to $172.6 million, leather 29% to $149 million

and leather products 145% to $31.4 million. Cotton and cotton product

exports rose 34%, rubber exports doubled and raw jute and jute goods

surged 54%.

Less impressively, exports in the engineering products sector, which includes

iron and steel, bicycles, electronic products and engineering equipment,

declined 7.5% to $165 million. Overseas sales of petroleum byproducts

dropped 19% to $128.8 million and chemical products 21.4% to $51.9

million.

Export earnings for the 2009-10 fiscal was $16.2 billion against a target of $17.6

billion. That represented a 4 percent increase over the 2008-09 fiscal, even though

it fell around 8 percent short of the target, private news agency UNB reported.

Economists say exports, especially the export of knitwear and woven

garments could not reach the target in the last fiscal due to the effect of the

global economic meltdown, labor unrest in the readymade garment (RMG)sector, and the crippling energy and power crisis.

A over 10 percent increase in earnings for the highest export earning RMG

sector (combining knitwear and woven garments), which contributed about

77.1 percent of the total export income of Bangladesh in 2009-10 fiscal year,

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has been proposed, even though it could not achieve its target in 2009-10

fiscal, said an EPB high official.

Export receipts by mode of Financing (Quarterly data)

Export Receipts of Bangladesh (including exports of EPZ) during the quarter

October-December, 2011 stood at Tk.424160 million or US$ 5497 million. On

the other hand Export Receipts for the quarters July-September, 2011 and

October-December, 2010 were Tk.463543 million or US$ 6222 million and

Tk.328951 million or US$ 4666 million respectively. Export Receipts for the

quarter under review decreased by Tk. 39383 million (or 8.5%) or US$ 725

million (or 11.7%) and increased by Tk.95209 million (or 28.9%) or US$ 831million (or 17.8%) over the quarters July-September, 2011 and October-

December, 2010 respectively. A comparative position of Export Receipts for

the quarters October-December, 2011, July-September, 2011, and October-

December, 2010 is shown below in table - 1 & table - 1(A).

TABLE- I(A)

Mode of financing

October-December,

2011

July-September,

2011

October-December,

2010

Changes

(1)-(2)

Changes

(1)-(3)Amount Amount Amount

1 2 3 4 5

Cash 360065.0 397794.0 286923.0 -37729 73142

Exports of EPZ 64095.0 65749.0 42028.0 -1654 22067

Total 424160.0 463543.0 328951.0 -39383 95209

(Changes in %) (-8.5) (28.9)

TABLE- I(B)

(US dollar in Millions)

Mode of financing

October-December,

2011

July-September,

2011

October-December,

2010

Changes

(1)-(2)

Changes(1)-(3)

Amount Amount Amount

1 2 3 4 5

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Cash 4668.0 5339.0 4070.0 -671 598

Exports of EPZ 829.0 883.0 596.0 -54 233

Total 5497.0 6222.0 4666.0 -725 831

(Changes in %) (-11.7) (17.8)

Source : Statistics Department, Bangladesh Bank.

Import

Import Volumes of Goods Only (Percent Change) for Bangladesh in year2010 is 11.958 %This makes Bangladesh No. 56 in world rankings according to ImportVolumes of Goods Only (Percent Change) in year 2010. The world's averageImport Volumes of Goods Only (Percent Change) value is 8.25 %;Bangladesh is 3.71 more than the average.

In the previous year, 2009, Import Volumes of Goods Only (Percent Change)for Bangladesh was 7.94 % Import Volumes of Goods Only (Percent Change)for Bangladesh in 2010 was or will be 50.68% more than it was or will be in2009.

In the following or forecasted year, 2011, Import Volumes of Goods Only(Percent Change) for Bangladesh was or will be 9.46 %, which is 20.93% lessthan the 2010 figure

During 2008-2009 fiscal years, the import for food good items has increasedfrom 10.218 percent to 10.875 percent. At the same time the import of

capital goods has decreased from 55.619 percent in 2008-09 to

55.380 percent in FY 2009-10. This implies that in the FY 2009-10, the

magnitude of import for capital good has decreased in comparison to the

import of FY 2008-09 by 0.239 percent.

The import share for yarn, textile has decreased in FY 2009-10 compared to

FY 2008-09. The decrease in import was 8.756 percent for yarn and

4.854 percent for textile. This reduction also explains negative growth of

export in our readymade garment sector. The import of iron and steel has

decreased by 2.748 percent in FY 2009-2010 compared to FY 2008-09

which may have a negative effect on the infrastructural development

of the country. The volume of import for capital machinery has increased by

12.998 in FY 2009-10 percent from those of FY 2008-09.

Import payments by mode of Financing(Quarterly data)

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Total import payments of Bangladesh (including EPZ) during the quarterOct-December' 2011 stood at To 695898 million (or US$ 9008.3 million) ascompared to 654793 million (or US$ 8788.5 million ) for the quarter July-September' 2011.A comparative position of import payments by mode of

financing for the quarters October-December' 2011 and July-September'2011 is given below in TABLE-I.

TABLE- I

(Amount in Millions)

Import by mode of

financing

October-December, 2011 July-September, 2011 Changes

Amount Percentag

e of total

Amount Percentag

e of total

Taka

(1)-(4)

USD

(2)-(5)Taka USD Taka USD

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Cash 629185 8150.5 90.4 581791 7808.7 88.9 47394(+8.1)

341.8(+4.4)

Loans/Grants 13224 167.7 1.9 2186 29.4 0.3 11038 138.3

Short term loans(IDB)

11946 152.4 1.7 34043 456.6 5.2 -22097 -304.2

Other unclassifiedimports

2202 28.5 0.3 1934 26.2 0.3 268 2.3

A. Sub-total 656557 8499.1 94.3 619954 8320.9 94.7 36603 178.2

B. Imports of EPZ 39341 509.2 5.7 34839 467.6 5.3 4502 41.6

Total Import:(A+B) (cuff)

695898 9008.3 100.0 654793 8788.5 100.0 41105(+6.3)

219.8(+2.5)

Note: Figures in parentheses indicate percentage of change.

Import Payments, Import LC Settlements and Import LCs Opened

Import Payments

(C&F)

Import LCs

settlement

Import LCs opened

Year 2010-11

33657.5

0

(+41.79

2009-10

23738.40

(+5.47)

2010-11

31952.18

(+35.60)

2009-10

23053.10

(+7.50)

2010-11

38581.12

(+34.04)

2009-10

28783.40

(+32.02)

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)Month 2010-

11

2009-10 2010-11 2009-10 2010-11 2009-10

October 2532.30 2032.00 2636.66 2010.92 3531.02 2367.10November 2699.60 1820.50 2601.89 1717.80 3520.88 2355.51December 2984.50 2180.50 2849.55 2141.41 3311.21 2033.85

Source: Statistics Department, Bangladesh Bank.

Conclusion

At the halfway mark of FY2010 11, there are several indications that the

economy has gained some momentum, particularly due to the pick inexternal demand. Enhanced export receipts during the early months ofFY2010 11 also speak about the upbeat manufacturing growth. Greater investment demand is reflected in strong industrial credit flow leading togrowing imports demand for capital machinery and other productioninputs. However there are a couple of disquieting factors which maysubdue the GDP growth figure for the current fiscal year. The dismalperformance of small manufacturing industries could inhibit the potentialexpansion of monetary output. The review of key economic variablessuggests that macroeconomic stability in FY2010 11 is coming under

some strains on a number of fronts. These emerging strains may haveimplications for attaining the GDP growth objective. In order to address theissue of rising commodity prices (including fuel and food), volatile capitalmarket, slow recovery of investment demand and the pressure on balanceof payment, appropriate fiscal and monetary policy support for facilitatingthe growth process will be required.

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2. http://www.bids.org.bd/bds/34-2/khuda.pdf

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0.

4. http://www.mof.gov.bd/en/index.php?

option=com_content&view=article&id=191&Itemid=1&phpMyAdmin=GqNi

sTr562C5oxdV

%2CEruqlWwoM5&phpMyAdmin=XRGktGpDJ7v31TJLuZ5xtAQmRx9

5. http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/MB23Df03.html

6. http://www.bangladesh-bank.org

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http://www.bangladeshembassy.com.cn/em/bbs/bbs.asphttp://www.bids.org.bd/bds/34-2/khuda.pdfhttp://www.bdresearch.org.bd/home/attachments/article/122/meu_Oct_2010.http://www.bdresearch.org.bd/home/attachments/article/122/meu_Oct_2010.http://www.mof.gov.bd/en/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=191&Itemid=1&phpMyAdmin=GqNisTr562C5oxdV%2CEruqlWwoM5&phpMyAdmin=XRGktGpDJ7v31TJLuZ5xtAQmRx9http://www.mof.gov.bd/en/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=191&Itemid=1&phpMyAdmin=GqNisTr562C5oxdV%2CEruqlWwoM5&phpMyAdmin=XRGktGpDJ7v31TJLuZ5xtAQmRx9http://www.mof.gov.bd/en/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=191&Itemid=1&phpMyAdmin=GqNisTr562C5oxdV%2CEruqlWwoM5&phpMyAdmin=XRGktGpDJ7v31TJLuZ5xtAQmRx9http://www.mof.gov.bd/en/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=191&Itemid=1&phpMyAdmin=GqNisTr562C5oxdV%2CEruqlWwoM5&phpMyAdmin=XRGktGpDJ7v31TJLuZ5xtAQmRx9http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/MB23Df03.htmlhttp://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/MB23Df03.htmlhttp://www.bangladesh-bank.org/econdata/export/exp_rcpt_overall.phphttp://www.bids.org.bd/bds/34-2/khuda.pdfhttp://www.bdresearch.org.bd/home/attachments/article/122/meu_Oct_2010.http://www.bdresearch.org.bd/home/attachments/article/122/meu_Oct_2010.http://www.mof.gov.bd/en/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=191&Itemid=1&phpMyAdmin=GqNisTr562C5oxdV%2CEruqlWwoM5&phpMyAdmin=XRGktGpDJ7v31TJLuZ5xtAQmRx9http://www.mof.gov.bd/en/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=191&Itemid=1&phpMyAdmin=GqNisTr562C5oxdV%2CEruqlWwoM5&phpMyAdmin=XRGktGpDJ7v31TJLuZ5xtAQmRx9http://www.mof.gov.bd/en/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=191&Itemid=1&phpMyAdmin=GqNisTr562C5oxdV%2CEruqlWwoM5&phpMyAdmin=XRGktGpDJ7v31TJLuZ5xtAQmRx9http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/MB23Df03.htmlhttp://www.bangladesh-bank.org/econdata/export/exp_rcpt_overall.phphttp://www.bangladeshembassy.com.cn/em/bbs/bbs.asp

a study of major economic aggregates - bangladesh

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