A Sustainable Strategy for Developing Hamilton as a

Gateway

Presented to the Hamilton Chamber of Commerce

Dr. Pavlos KanaroglouMcMaster University

April 27, 2009

Brief Overview of MITL and Gateway Investigation

MITL formed in October 2007 at the request of local, public and private stakeholders

Unique forum for the collaboration of industry, government and academia

Gateway Research came about at the request of the MITL advisory board

The Hamilton Gateway project has been carried out by a team of highly-qualified researchers

What is a Gateway? What benefits to expect? Lessons from other Gateways Analysis of Gateway Development Impacts

Regional Level Analysis to determine economic impacts Local Level Analysis to determine environmental, quality of life

impacts from this economic growth Recommendations

Outline of Presentation

Gateway as Economic Enabler

The most typical conception of a gateway

Focus on seamless intermodal movement of goods

Efficient links between important nodes in an urban area

Emphasis on making urban area attractive to firms and a highly developed transportation and logistics sector

Gateway as Key to Holistic Urban Development

We favour this broader interpretation of a gateway

Retains the characteristics of the economic enabler

Additional emphasis on other aspects of sustainability: Compact urban form and avoidance of sprawl Strong transit linkages between employment and

residential lands

Hamilton’s Considerable Assets

Infrastructure Comparative advantage in simultaneous access to major four modes A 24 hour international passenger and cargo airport with nearby land for

development Busy port with existing and prospective intermodal capability Several existing industrial parks Solid freeway and rail links Ample brownfields for redevelopment

People World class teaching and research institutions A large and well-educated labour force

Hamilton’s Considerable Assets

Geographic Location Excellent simultaneous road access to two major border points at

Niagara and Windsor

Good access to Toronto (the largest metropolitan economic engine) via rail or road

24 hour ground access to a significant proportion of the North American population

Key Benefits of Holistic Gateway Development Economic

Job creation, desirable place to locate a firm Evolution into transportation and logistics centre

E.g. port and airport Facilitator of enhanced industrial innovation

Environmental Cleaner air and associated health benefits Cleaner modes of transporting goods and people

Social Less time commuting (less stress), more high paying jobs A more vital and environmentally healthy city core

Critical Message

The ECONOMIC, ENVIRONMENTAL and SOCIAL benefits are ALL achievable

One set of benefits is not achieved to the exclusion of other benefits

Hamilton should be aiming to “have its cake and eat it too”

Lessons from Other Gateways

Several Gateway Cities Studied Worldwide

Major Seaports Rotterdam Dubai Hong Kong

Inland Ports Kansas City Berlin-Brandenburg Port of Huntsville, Alabama Columbus, Ohio Winnipeg And others

The Best Gateways in the World:

Place a lot of emphasis on being uncongested Effective at building consensus, partnerships and alliances

public and private other jurisdictions

Very good at self-promotion and presenting a compelling value proposition (e.g. favourable tax incentives, free trade zones, intermodality)

Have developed effective transport-focused organizations Have embraced containerization

Containerization Capability Very Important

Almost 75% of world trade is carried in containers: Development of Global supply chains consistent with even more

containerization in future Even traditional bulk goods (e.g. coffee) are more and more

shipped by container

Key issue for Inland Ports: Filling the container for the trip back to sea port

Creating a Transport-Focused Gateway Organization

Maximally utilize existing transportation assets and help in developing new ones

Strong promotional and marketing component Ideally supported by a diverse board of directors to prevent

conflicts of interest and prevent/resolve disputes Develop co-operative relationships with other gateways Attracting new businesses (especially those with logistics

elements) Current examples are Kansas City SmartPort and Winnipeg

CentrePort (the latter is fairly new)

Analysis of Gateway Development Impacts

The Sequence of the Analysis

Job scenarios tested: Oriented toward transportation, warehousing and associated

services Focused on airport vicinity(~55%), port vicinity (~20%) and other

relevant areas (~25%) New jobs induce local, regional and national multiplier impacts which

we trace via an economic impact model New Dwelling Scenarios are considered

Urban Sprawl versus Compact Development Effects of LRT are studied jointly with compact development

Local environmental implications of the scenarios are quantified

15 Canadian Economic Regions Modelled 3 of them in Ontario

Components of the Hamilton Economic Region

18

Job Scenarios are Developed at the CMA Tract level (75% Airport and Port)

Assumed Gateway Employment Growth by Scenario up to 2031

Scenario Name

Direct Gateway Employment

Indirect/Induced Employment

10K 10,000 7,000 15K 15,000 10,500 20K 20,000 14,000 25K 25,000 17,500 30K 30,000 21,000 35K 35,000 24,500

The indirect/induced growth associated with direct gateway employment

is based on estimates from the Southern Ontario Gateway Council

Hamilton Gateway Induced Spillover GDP Growth by Region (2031)

$$ Nationally is: $10.2B

$$ for Hamilton Economic Region: $ 4.8B

%

In Comparing Sprawl to Compact+LRT Scenarios (2031):

Auto commuting levels under Compact-LRT: Vehicle Kilometres Travelled (VKT) reduced by12.5 percent Vehicle Minutes Travelled (VMT) reduced by 38 percent

Under Compact-LRT Emission levels reduced by: HC (35%) CO (23%) NOx (16%) Particulate Matter (12%)

NOx Emissions by Scenario (in Kg)

23

Modal Split of Work Trips (Gateway Compact Scenario)

24

Modal Split of Work Trips(Gateway-Compact + LRT Scenario)

25

Recommendations

Hamilton should strive to be compact with future core-oriented residential development

LRT and other public transit should be keenly pursued AEGD should be a priority but avoid residential in vicinity Enhanced Containerization and short-sea shipping at port Formation of Transport-focused Gateway Organization Sense of Urgency Required

Governments are Spending Other potential gateways are not standing still

Emphasis on nurturing and growing human capital