A Tour of Climate-Protection A Tour of Climate-Protection Technology Decision SpaceTechnology Decision Space

Energy and Climate Mini-Workshop Energy and Climate Mini-Workshop November 3, 2008November 3, 2008

Michael Hoexter, Ph.D.Michael Hoexter, Ph.D.

Terraverde SolutionsTerraverde Solutions

Why Discuss the Decision Space?Why Discuss the Decision Space?

Provide Decision makers with an Provide Decision makers with an intelligent framework for evaluating intelligent framework for evaluating technologiestechnologies

Create basis for comparison between Create basis for comparison between technologiestechnologies

Create links between relevant data Create links between relevant data and decision process itselfand decision process itself

Why a “Space?”Why a “Space?”

A visual metaphorA visual metaphor Potentially graphablePotentially graphable Potential for describing 3 or more Potential for describing 3 or more

dimensions mapped onto a very dimensions mapped onto a very complex multivariate domain.complex multivariate domain.

Purpose of Decision SpacePurpose of Decision Space

Harness most deliberative, highest Harness most deliberative, highest forms of rational thought and forms of rational thought and discourse in service of protecting the discourse in service of protecting the climate.climate.

Decision Space as PreventionDecision Space as Prevention

With an organized decision space With an organized decision space framework, we might be swayed by framework, we might be swayed by personal biases or emotional appeals personal biases or emotional appeals that in the end will not protect the that in the end will not protect the climate.climate.

Gut level decision makingGut level decision making

I liked that guy, let’s do business I liked that guy, let’s do business with him.with him.

I like big projects.I like big projects. I like the sun…it’s about the futureI like the sun…it’s about the future Energy has to have some downside, Energy has to have some downside,

has to be a little dirty.has to be a little dirty.

The GoalThe Goal

Better, more intelligent decision Better, more intelligent decision making for Energy and Climatemaking for Energy and Climate

Simplified Decision SpaceSimplified Decision Space

In Ethical Terms there are two broad In Ethical Terms there are two broad areas for decision makers:areas for decision makers:• Global and Long-term Variables (GHG Global and Long-term Variables (GHG

emissions and climate)emissions and climate)• Personal, local, and organizational Personal, local, and organizational

variables (What do I, my company, my variables (What do I, my company, my constituents gain/lose?)constituents gain/lose?)

Two types of Parameters – Two types of Parameters – Simplified ViewSimplified View

Local, organizational and personal Local, organizational and personal parametersparameters

Global, and long-term parameters Global, and long-term parameters related to the effect of GHG related to the effect of GHG emissions on climate stability.emissions on climate stability.

Simplified View as Ethical DilemmaSimplified View as Ethical Dilemma

In the simplified view, immediate In the simplified view, immediate concerns are contrasted with longer-concerns are contrasted with longer-term concerns for the well-being of term concerns for the well-being of the planetthe planet

The latter concerns are usually given The latter concerns are usually given higher weight in our inherited ethical higher weight in our inherited ethical systemssystems

Expanding Decision SpaceExpanding Decision Space

The simplified view of the problem is The simplified view of the problem is important but real decision makers important but real decision makers need to confront a problem of high need to confront a problem of high complexitycomplexity

More parameters other than short-More parameters other than short-term/long-term need to be studied term/long-term need to be studied and brought to bear on wise and brought to bear on wise technology choices.technology choices.

A More Detailed Decision SpaceA More Detailed Decision Space

What follows is a review of What follows is a review of Prerequisites and Parameters that Prerequisites and Parameters that would make up a more useful would make up a more useful decision spacedecision space

(Proposed) Prerequisites(Proposed) Prerequisites

Does this technology or system cut Does this technology or system cut emissions by 90% over the replaced emissions by 90% over the replaced technology or system?technology or system?

Can it be implemented within 10 Can it be implemented within 10 years?years?

Classes of ParametersClasses of Parameters

Financial ParametersFinancial Parameters Efficacy as Climate ProtectionEfficacy as Climate Protection Efficacy as an Energy SourceEfficacy as an Energy Source Continuity with Existing Social Continuity with Existing Social

InstitutionsInstitutions Systemic Risks and DependenciesSystemic Risks and Dependencies

Assigning Values to ParametersAssigning Values to Parameters

Positive or negative (some Positive or negative (some unanimous, some subjectively unanimous, some subjectively determined)determined)

Max. assigned value (pre-Max. assigned value (pre-programmed or left open to decision programmed or left open to decision makers)makers)

Assigned value (assigned by decision Assigned value (assigned by decision makers we hope with the best makers we hope with the best guidance available)guidance available)

Financial Parameters (I)Financial Parameters (I)

Current cost of deployment (per unit Current cost of deployment (per unit useful product and per unit GHG useful product and per unit GHG avoided)avoided)

Projected Future cost of deployment Projected Future cost of deployment (5, 10, 15 year horizons)(5, 10, 15 year horizons)

Potential for Profit (margin between Potential for Profit (margin between true cost and perceived market value true cost and perceived market value or prescribed selling price)or prescribed selling price)

Financial Parameters (II)Financial Parameters (II)

Potential for Workforce Development Potential for Workforce Development and Employment (Green Jobs)and Employment (Green Jobs)

Percentage Discount from Expectable Percentage Discount from Expectable Carbon Price Carbon Price

Utilization of sunk costs and existing Utilization of sunk costs and existing infrastructureinfrastructure

Financial Parameters (III)Financial Parameters (III)

Losses from abandoning GHG-Losses from abandoning GHG-emitting assetsemitting assets

Incentives for (partially) recovering Incentives for (partially) recovering losses from abandoning GHG-losses from abandoning GHG-emitting assetsemitting assets

Financial Parameters (IV)Financial Parameters (IV)

Requirements for new ancillary Requirements for new ancillary infrastructureinfrastructure

Dependence upon government Dependence upon government subsidysubsidy

Allows investment in small monetary Allows investment in small monetary and time increments; potential for and time increments; potential for rapidly recursive technological rapidly recursive technological developmentdevelopment

Efficacy as Climate Protection (I)Efficacy as Climate Protection (I)

Availability for deployment in 2009-Availability for deployment in 2009-20112011

Scalability to energy demand and Scalability to energy demand and GHG-emissions reduction targetsGHG-emissions reduction targets

Geographical range of applicationGeographical range of application

Efficacy as Climate Protection (II)Efficacy as Climate Protection (II)

Coal replacement value (how closely Coal replacement value (how closely matches output of coal-fired power matches output of coal-fired power plants)plants)

Petroleum replacement valuePetroleum replacement value Natural gas/propane replacement Natural gas/propane replacement

valuevalue

Efficacy as Energy Source (I)Efficacy as Energy Source (I)

Current energy return on energy Current energy return on energy invested (ERoEI)invested (ERoEI)

Projected future ERoEI (5, 10, 15 Projected future ERoEI (5, 10, 15 year horizons)year horizons)

Reliability and Availability (matches Reliability and Availability (matches our energy demand in quantity and our energy demand in quantity and timing)timing)

Efficacy as Energy Source (II)Efficacy as Energy Source (II)

Primary energy is a stock or flowPrimary energy is a stock or flow If a flow, storage capability and cost If a flow, storage capability and cost

for that type of flow.for that type of flow. Dependence on exhaustible or rare Dependence on exhaustible or rare

resources/ (narrow) sustainabilityresources/ (narrow) sustainability

Social Continuity/Discontinuity (I)Social Continuity/Discontinuity (I)

Convenience/Consumer acceptance Convenience/Consumer acceptance of productsof products

Continuity with existing Industry Continuity with existing Industry expertiseexpertise

Continuity with existing employment Continuity with existing employment structurestructure

Social Continuity/Discontinuity (II)Social Continuity/Discontinuity (II)

Favored by established economic Favored by established economic interests and industry playersinterests and industry players

Disruptiveness for existing industries Disruptiveness for existing industries and interest groupsand interest groups

Physical proximity or accessibility to Physical proximity or accessibility to a given decision-maker.a given decision-maker.

Systemic Risks and Dependencies (I)Systemic Risks and Dependencies (I)

Non-GHG Ecological FootprintNon-GHG Ecological Footprint• Land useLand use• Water useWater use• Non-GHG gaseous emissionsNon-GHG gaseous emissions• Volume of solid/liquid waste (system)Volume of solid/liquid waste (system)• Biotoxicity of waste and emissionsBiotoxicity of waste and emissions• Interaction with non-human speciesInteraction with non-human species• Interaction with human cultural expectations Interaction with human cultural expectations

for natural systemsfor natural systems• Other eco-system interactionsOther eco-system interactions

Systemic Risks and Dependencies (II)Systemic Risks and Dependencies (II)

Competition with other (non-Energy) Competition with other (non-Energy) human economic endshuman economic ends

Dependence on government Dependence on government management of operationsmanagement of operations

Systemic Risks and Dependencies (III)Systemic Risks and Dependencies (III)

Potential for catastrophic failurePotential for catastrophic failure Vulnerability to changes in Vulnerability to changes in

atmospheric and climatic conditionsatmospheric and climatic conditions

Constructing a Decision SpaceConstructing a Decision Space

Option 1: Add the rated parameters Option 1: Add the rated parameters together to arrive at a single scoretogether to arrive at a single score

Option 2: Create virtual 5-dimensional Option 2: Create virtual 5-dimensional space or rating system by rating each space or rating system by rating each class of parameters separatelyclass of parameters separately

Option 3: Cluster parameters into “short-Option 3: Cluster parameters into “short-term” and “long-term” or “interests of term” and “long-term” or “interests of current generation” and “interests of current generation” and “interests of future generation”. Observe how different future generation”. Observe how different technologies rate.technologies rate.

Potential Next StepsPotential Next Steps

Would offering decision makers the Would offering decision makers the outlines of a post-carbon decision outlines of a post-carbon decision space be helpful?space be helpful?

If helpful, agree on Parameter set If helpful, agree on Parameter set (more or less)(more or less)

Once parameters are determined, Once parameters are determined, decide whether parameter maximum decide whether parameter maximum values (weightings) can be pre-values (weightings) can be pre-assigned and if yes, assign them.assigned and if yes, assign them.

Comments Please!!Comments Please!!

Thank you!Thank you! Or by Email: Or by Email:

michael.terraverde@gmail.commichael.terraverde@gmail.com