A UK Energy Systems Perspective

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By Prof Jim Watson, UKERC Research Director APGTF Annual Workshop, London, 12-13 March 2014

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  • 1. Click to add title A UK Energy Systems Perspective Jim Watson, UKERC Research Director APGTF Annual Workshop, London, 12-13 March 2014

2. Click to add titleOverview The UKs energy policy goals: a shifting agenda Low carbon transitions for the power sector The role of fossil fuels and CCS Relative costs & cost trajectories Flexibility and electricity system security Public values & energy system change 3. The UKs energy policy goals Security of supply, affordability, and playing our part in combating climate change. And that for me is the order Michael Fallon, 2nd Dec 2013 4. Reducing carbon emissions Source: Committee on Climate 5. Important for many reasons: High energy prices since mid 2000s Geopolitics and conflicts (e.g. Iraq war; Russia-Ukraine disputes) Impacts of extreme weather events (e.g. power blackouts; hurricane Katrina) Ageing and/or inadequate infrastructure (power plants; gas storage capacity) Debates often focus on international risks, but many risks closer to home Domestic energy sources are not always more secure than imports Maintaining energy security 6. -200.0 -100.0 0.0 100.0 200.0 300.0 400.0 500.0 600.0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 TWh Exports Pipeline Imports LNG Imports Net Imports Source: DECC Maintaining energy security From gas exporter to importer / trader Maintaining energy security: from gas exporter to importer 7. 0 100 200 300 400 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Index(2000=100) Gas Electricity Gas prices have trebled since 2000 Electricity prices have doubled since 2000 Affordability: Domestic gas & electricity prices Affordability for consumers 8. Click to add titleAffordability and Fuel Poverty Source: Department of Energy and Climate Change 9. Trade-offs between policy goals 10. The UKs low carbon transition: so far, so good? 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Emissions:mtCO2(equiv) CO2 emissions Other GHGs Total GHGs Source: Department of Energy and Climate Change CO2 emissions are down 19% since 1990 11. Click to add titleThe UKs low carbon transition - 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Electricitysupplied(GWh) Conventional thermal, incl biomass CCGTs Nuclear Other renewables Source: DECC Statistics 12. The UKs low carbon transition: CCC projection for 2020 Source: Committee on Climate Change (May 2013) 12GW of fossil and 3.5GW of nuclear plant retires EU renewables target: 30-35% of electricity by 2020 Energy efficiency; two CCS demos; 5GW unabated gas 13. The UKs low carbon transition CCC scenarios for 50g/kWh in 2030 Source: Committee on Climate Change (May 2013) 14. 3. Innovation systems & developmentSignificant cost uncertainties Unclear which technologies will win Source: UKERC 15. 3. Innovation systems & developmentSignificant cost uncertainties Unclear which technologies will win Source: UKERC 16. Click to add title Significant cost uncertainties Will costs fall in future? Source: CCS Cost Reduction Task Force 17. Click to add title Significant cost uncertainties Costs go up as well as down FGD capital costs in the USA (1997$) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 $/kW 18. Click to add title Significant cost uncertainties The case of offshore wind Source: The Crown Estate (May 2012) Drivers of increase include: Commodity prices; exchange rates; deeper water, supply chain limitations; reliability problems 19. Click to add title Significant cost uncertainties Where are we for CCS? Here? Here? Or here? 20. Click to add titleSecure, low carbon electricity? The CCC say that all of their electricity scenarios are compatible with maintaining security 15% of electricity demand is flexible, at least within day (Sustainability First estimate technical potential is 10- 18GW or one third of load) Much more interconnection: 10GW A bit more pumped storage (up 0.6GW to 3.3GW) Significant increase in gas-fired capacity Also assume that wind can make a contribution to system security at some times of day / year 21. Secure, low carbon electricity? [A] substantial investment in gas generation and gas import infrastructure here in the UK is completely consistent with Britains plans to cut carbon emissions, set out in our Carbon Plan. In electricity generation alone, I expect new gas capacity of around 20GW to be built between now and 2030 Ed Davey, 8th October 2012 22. Secure, low carbon electricity? An enterprise strategy means investing in renewable energy, and opening up the newly discovered shale gas reserves beneath our land. We are today consulting on a generous new tax regime for shale so that Britain is not left behind as gas prices tumble on the other side of the Atlantic. George Osborne, 8th October 2012 (Simultaneously!) 23. Secure, low carbon electricity? Many (government) views on role of gas NB: Gas capacity is not fitted with CCS Source: DECC Gas Strategy 100g / kWh George: 200g / kWh Ed: 50g / kWh 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Powerfromgas(%) 37GW 49GW 31GW 24. Maintaining energy security From gas exporter to importer / trader Secure, low carbon electricity? More pressing issues in the short-term Source: Ofgem (June 2013) 25. Maintaining energy security From gas exporter to importer / trader Source: UKERC Public attitudes and values 26. Click to add title Thanks http://www.ukerc.ac.uk https://twitter.com/watsonjim2